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Clinton's favor whether you're looking at a four-way breakdown, two-way breakdown or any of the swing states. the trajectory is definitely in her favor. she is winning. and fascinating about these two polls, both taken at the same time, both same partisan breakdown, you know, and they are just super good polls, really reputable and you see the big distinction there. i think which speaks to how polarized the country is and how difficult it is for pollsters to get a clear sense of what's going on there. >> the key point is the trending. >> the key is the trending. look at more than one poll and ...

The headlines, but we're not seeing that getting to these poll numbers here. >> without a doubt, and it's interesting how much of a gap there is between the nationwide polling numbers that pretty much consistently show hillary clinton with the exception of a new polls with a command and a comfortable lead. there's a gap between those polls and polls in the number of swing states, particularly ohio, where almost depending on what day of the week it is, you have a poll showing trump leading or a poll showing hillary leading. florida is a lot more competitive than a lot more democrats would have ...

I find remarkable your analysis. tell everybody what you just did and with what result. >> we looked at a bunch of polls for various offices over the past several elections looking at polls during the several weeks before the election occurred. each poll has a margin of error. so you can look at that and also look at how close the poll is to what actually happens in the election. so you can calculate an empirical margin of error and how far are they in reality? the empirical margin of error twice as large as the theoretical margin of error that gets reported. >> in other words, when we speak o...

Dana, is that the consensus from people who have not decided who they're going to vote for in this election? >> i think people who are undecided are just flat out disgusted by this particular issue. it is really hard to imagine that bringing those four women into the debate hall, never mind having the political stunt, photo op, i mean, it was a stunt, doing what he did beforehand with them, right before a major presidential debate. hard to imagine that is going to make undecided voters say, oh, wow! i'm going to vote for donald trump. that makes sense to me. it's just hard to imagine. just as ...

>> i think people who are undecided are just flat out disgusted by this particular issue. it is really hard to imagine that bringing those four women into the debate hall, never mind having the political stunt, photo op, i mean, it was a stunt, doing what he did beforehand with them, right before a major presidential debate. hard to imagine that is going to make undecided voters say, oh, wow! i'm going to vote for donald trump. that makes sense to me. just as larry and frank were saying, that was all about making sure that the bottom doesn't really fall out, that poll we were talking about, if...