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Ground states at that will decide this election. how about that? >> how you doing? good evening to you and bret here. back on the billboard we are, better and improved every year we go through this and steve brown was just there in franklin county, columbus,ohio and spent the last two weekends in ohio trying to get a sense of what's happening on the ground. what i want to show viewers tonight was back in 2008, red is republican, blue is democrat on the map. and here in ohio, the president was a winner, okay? you look at the counties here and you try and get a comparison, between 2008 and 2004,...

Decide this election. how about that? >> how you doing? good evening to you and bret here. back on the billboard we are, better and improved every year we go through this and steve brown was just there in franklin county, columbus,ohio and spent the last two weekends in ohio trying to get a sense of what's happening on the ground. what i want to show viewers tonight was back in 2008, red is republican, blue is democrat on the map. and here in ohio, the president was a winner, okay? you look at the counties here and you try and get a comparison, between 2008 and 2004, watch what happens on the ...

The gallup polling company has governor romney up by five. exactly the opposite. we also have shown you the average of national polls and they all even out and it is a dead heat and for a little color just days before the 1980 election jimmy carter was up six points over governor ronald reagan. we all know he how that race turned out. here to make sense of it all, peter brown assistant director of the quinnf quinnipiac pollin institute. and jennifer. jennifer why so much variety. take the gallup poll discrepancy. a five point swing. actual lay ten point swing between two polls. why? >> because...

Point out because democrats vote more on election today. in ohio it's not even close, in terms of where those absentee ballots, or the early vote ballots are. bill: andrea's big point is that it's a 22 point swing. >> it's a meaningless number, it's a meaningless number. 22 point swing for what? you're talking about from 2008 to 2012. you're talking about a number of days for early voting to take place. you don't know how many people are going to vote between now and next tuesday. bill: what about that andrea. >> i can answer that very easily. look at the gallup number overall among likely reg...

Ahead by an impress impressiven points. 52% of the ballots have been cast in romney's favor. it's an eight point swing, by the way, in only four weeks. with all of those numbers in mind it's not surprising that the bi-partisan battleground model predicts romney as the winner in tuesday's election. will these numbers prove to be true? here to continue our debate is fox news political analyst. she's having a panic attack, juan williams, and from the five, dana puert dana perino is. it's just aut a momentum. i got a feeling in 2008, you could just tell it wasn't going to go senator mccain's way. ...