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Candidates at an early voting site in south florida. they both told me their internal polls had them ten points up, and they are running against each other. i do think that the polls are all over the place. we have seen them be all over the place in florida, for example. and we have seen election day surprises in places like florida where everybody expected hillary clinton to win two years ago. so it's true. the only poll that matters is election day. so get off the couch. when we're done, get off the couch and vote. >> she has her priorities, ratings. and then when we're done go vote. but wha...

In nevada a new york times poll shows republican dean heller leading his democratic challenge jackie rosen by two points. i'm joined by tim kessler, former adviser to senator schumer and alex koenig, partner at firehouse strategies. i want to talk about three races. let's start with nevada. jim, let me ask you something, has jacky lost her ability to sort of full aled in this race? >> i don't think so. i have seen a private poll that shows her up two points. both polls can be accurate with the margin of error. this is going to be a close race. it will go down to the wire. i think republicans a...

Year. there's a lot of democrats that don't like this president. it's a battle. but at the end of the day, ted cruz is loved by many, many people in texas. that's the reason why i think he's going to win this five, six, seven points up, eight points maybe. texas is just not california. and beto is a guy who wants to turn into california. or i should say robert francis, the guy who wants to turn this into california. this is a guy who is anti-gun for goodness sakes in texas. i don't know how you think you can win a statewide seat being anti-gun and anti-border security. but i was shocked that h...

Michigan. >> no question. >> unless everybody was worried. >> no question that the polls have been tightening. i don't want to be completely polyanna about it. i would say to your point, van, in that very poll that you describe where she's four points up, she gets better marks on trade than he does, by four points. because people have seen what she has said. bernie sanders has been there, campaigning for her. and she really has been very clear about wanting to renegotiate nafta. >> while we're talking about bernie sanders i want to bring in this tape of a student introducing bernie sanders, i ...

Overwhelmingly in iowa and ohio, two states where trump is favored, are really surging and showing him strong support, why wouldn't they show up in michigan? >> that's right. and shawn can probably speak to this more than anybody else. power of big data right now. this is both sides. robby mook said -- >> the clinton campaign manager? >> the clinton campaign manager. he has said the race is tightening. what you can do when you have all this data coming in, make these last-minute decisions. in the final week, bill clinton twice, hillary clinton twice, barack obama once, that kind of fire power ...