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2018 long before most people saw that coming. joining us now is political science professor rachel bitecofer with the lawson center for public policy in new port, virginia. this is your third round here on the "last word." and i actually want to once again start from the beginning and step through this analysis. and, you know, there's a lot of emotional reaction to this kind of talk now because i think there's such a shocked electorate especially on the democratic side that donald trump won before. and i believe that there is an exaggerated notion of donald trump as some kind of super man poli...

Modeling that allowed her to predict the big blue wave of 2018 long before most people saw that coming. joining us now is political science professor rachel bitecofer with the lawson center for public policy in new port, virginia. this is your third round here on the "last word." and i actually want to once again start from the beginning and step through this analysis. and, you know, there's a lot of emotional reaction to this kind of talk now because i think there's such a shocked electorate especially on the democratic side that donald trump won before. and i believe that there is an exagger...

And all of the polling information on donald trump is disastrous and always has been in terms of re-election since inauguration day. you look at that but you go way beyond that. and so talk us through how you get to the point where tonight you can say you're sure that you can either say the democrat will get to 78 or possibly put a better way, donald trump will lose 278 electoral votes to the democrat whoever that is. >> and it really is important to go back to that night in november 2016 and think about how the mood of the electorate was and there was such a sense -- right now we have this in...

Possibly free up some of that sense that joe biden is the safest possible choice. >> right. there's definitely evidence in this polling that joe biden isn't the only candidate who can defeat trump but he does have an advantage, the fact he leads trump by the largest margins and continues to lead the rest of the field by tlarjest of margins, he does well with women, men, white voters, black voters, hispanic voters. one of the most interesting things in the polling is the fact you have this historically diverse field of 2020 candidates but the top three are older white people who continue to dom...

>> right. there's definitely evidence in this polling that joe biden isn't the only candidate who can defeat trump but he does have an advantage, the fact he leads trump by the largest margins and continues to lead the rest of the field by tlarjest of margins, he does well with women, men, white voters, black voters, hispanic voters. one of the most interesting things in the polling is the fact you have this historically diverse field of 2020 candidates but the top three are older white people who continue to dominate and that's just a very interesting perspective. when you talk about who can ...