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So the more polling information you have, the better results. >> is he really talking about the fact of expectations about turnouts in a midterm election and the kinds of people -- let me go to jonathan. >> sure. >> it seems like that's the big al qaeda rhythm, the big number you would be looking for. if this were a presidential year, i think he would be much more careful about predicting demise for the democrats. >> look at nate silver's report. he goes into what were all the factors that led to the assumptions that he made today. one of them is presumed turnout. democratic party base usually...

Betting, you probably know when to quit. but if you got a system, you're convinced you got it figured out, chris. and does nate have a system here? is he just following? what you and i have been watching for months, he has been busy with sports. we know which ones are tough ones like west virginia. we know how tough they're going to be. your thoughts about the new listing. >> yeah, i mean, look. i don't think in defense of nate, i don't think nate came out and said that he had reinvented the wheel by saying that republicans had a better than even chance of winning back the senate, as you point...

People were able to shop for health care options. the fact that a million people went to the website is indication that the demand is high for the affordable health care options that are available. reporter: but they expect the problems to be ironed out. including better criticisms of obamacare itself. it's not enough young healthy people sign up for health care coverage, some fear that it could add to the death spiral and it could pose a risk to congressional democrats who are seeing the dwindling numbers both in themselves and for obamacare itself. they are up for reelection in 2014 and that...

Became a movie about sarah palin. two other revelations, he chafed at spending too much time with bill clinton, telling aides after cutting short a golf game, i like him in doses. and mitt romney dropped chris christie from his vp short list after he failed to fully answer questions about his background and his health. now, no one knows whether the publisher deliberately laeaked hot book like that, but it won't hurt sales. >> what do you believe? do you believe the report on replacing or possibly replacing vice president biden? sent me a tweet. >> we have polling information tonight on perhaps...

I want to look at the shut down polling information that we now have. on the 1995 shutdown versus the today shutdown. the who is to blame for the shutdown. in 1995, republicans were 49% to blame. more of them than the president. president 26. now it is higher than that. it is republicans are to blame by 53% of the people. president its 31. chuck todd makes the point that crossing that 50% line in that kind of poll its deadly serious for republicans. how do republicans read that poll? do they read that at the same way democrats do? >> not so much. i think the most interesting development this w...