Page 22 - Predictive Value News Today : Breaking News, Live Updates & Top Stories | Vimarsana

Important to think about. often we learn that information in retrospect. the reason i say we should be wary and i agree with danny exactly about this balance is for a couple of reasons. one is that as we see in this case and in this file, there are many factors that went into this shooting, but none of them would have been predictive. in other words, there are many people who have depression, adhd, cutting, break-ups, g getting kecked out of school. of the many thousands who have those symptom, it's not like a mental health practitioner can go on to say this person is going to commit a shootin...

Out polls can be all over the place there as david just mentioned. the national poll the other day had trump leading cruz by four points so who really knows what is going on in the cnn orc poll when asked who can handle the economy, immigration, isis, trump is by far their number one choice despite reality checks on his propels that don't necessarily always play in his favor. how do you explain most republicans think he can do the best job? >> look, i'm going to be a little bit of the grinch on these polls in terms of donald trump. i'm really -- i think at this point in the cycle, national pol...

Proposals that don't necessarily always play in his favor. how do you explain most republicans think he can do the best job? >> look, i'm going to be a little bit of the grinch on these polls in terms of donald trump. i'm really -- i think at this point in the cycle, national polls are just not that important. they tell you about who is in the news and who has high name i.d. but they don't have a lot of predictive value. i personally would look at the polling averages in iowa and new hampshire and the story in iowa is that ted cruz has taken the lead if you look at the polling averages. he has...

Rubio, cruz, and christie who just watched those guys over the month and see if they pop. the second thing is as dana pointed out, this is a sequential process. we don't have a national primary we don't all vote on the same day. it's one race after another and what happens in iowa is going to have a huge influence on what happened in new hampshire and that's going to have a huge influence on what happens in south carolina. and then finally, you know, to continue being the grinch here, the head-to-head polls, those don't -- the head-to-head general election polls, those don't really tell you --...

General election polls, those don't really have a lot of predictive value until a little later in the cycle and then the final thing is, the remember the caucuses are february 1st. in previous cycles, i was in iowa on new years eve. we have an extra month compared to previous cycles. long way to go. i would not be preparing my victory speech in cleveland if i were donald trump just yet. >> the increasingly heated personal battle -- >> back -- >> hold on, david -- >> there are a couple people -- >> hold on david, one second. hold on one second because i want to get to this increasingly heated b...