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Campaigns have so much more because they spend all this money, raise all this money and very expensive pollsters and you can see their bmws in washington dc but the candidates know when they are behind. if you seem somewhat acting flake you are throwing out weird stuff, somebody doing things, they think they are losing. shannon: let's talk about some tight races and some not as close. in arizona we have kiersten cinema and martha mc sally, cinema up by 6 points looking at the rcp average, 46-45%, the advantage there but a lot of folks thought mcsally would have gotten closer. >> arizona, this ...

The block wanting to canvas. >> patrick, you said there are not a lot of winners in this kavanaugh episode, but republican intensity if you listen to president trump yesterday he has seized on this. he believes this is a moment where he stood by the side of a man in his view unfairly accused and walked through fire. what happens to republican intensity? >> if you look at the rcp average a couple of weeks before this all started with judge kavanaugh, democratic intensity was 10 points and more, significantly in some polls. we're now seeing about 6% depending on the polling you look at. i think ...

>> i think that this is nothing new. and i think that actually what we are seeing now is donald trump, the president, and melania trump, v are being made to be synthetic figures. and then i look at the rcp average of polls, realclearpolitics. people don't know what rcp is -- jargon. since december, the president is up five points in that poll. considering how polarized to this country is in considering how overwhelming theo media is, to jump five points -- >> sean: what do you think a "roseanne" success, larry elder? >> it shows you there is a marketeo for people that don't t their point of vi...

Nothing new. and i think that actually what we're seeing now is donald trump, the president, and melania trump, they are being made to be sympathetic figures. and then i look at the rcp average of polls, right? that's all the major polls. >> sean: real clear politics. speaking jargon. they take 8 polls. >> rcp all right, enough. >> since december the president is up five points in that poll. and considering how polarized this country is and considering how overwhelming the media coverage is to jump 5% over all those polls, that's pretty big. >> sean: what do you think of roseanne's sces? larry...

Translated into the down ballot races. >> right. >> wasn't a surprise northam won. always had a polling advantage. small in the rcp average. the real surprise is the eraser of the republican majority in the state house. >> and by the way, northam had to win by ten to do it. that tells you something. ruth, seems to me if there's one thing that every republican pollster i talked to today are not fully ready to concede red states are vulnerable? the dead fish in nebraska vulnerable, but conceding a big problem in suburban america, if you will. northern virginia, an outsized example of suburbia an...