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The dollar is up. exports are declining and manufacturers rely heavily on selling what they produce to the rest of the world. here is the dark irony in this. the trade war, the tariffs were supposed to help manufacturing. but the -- in fact what's happening is it's pushing it into recession. now the damage is spreading out. you point to the employment statistics, the revision down in the employment gains. knows rechvisions were surprisingly big and broad based. not only manufacturing revised done pop construction, leisure hospitality, retail, health care, education, the economy is weakening. a...

Program with go to your favorite restaurant on september 11th and ask them to round up their bill and 15-cents here, 85-cents here. it adds up. if you need a let frer the lette foundation, we would be happy to provide that to you. >> . >> thanks for being here. >> who is going for a ride? >> todd. >> i'll do it. recession fears are running high in the media but are those fears warranted. >> investors are coming to the conclusion that recession risks are uncomfortably high and rising. >> this is a red flag that the bond market thinks we might have a recession coming. >> we'd put perino on the...

Campaign, mark zammi. he is the chief economist for moodies. i'm also joined by jennifer rubenstein and john harwood, host of the cnbc digital series "speakeasy with john harwood." make sense of what is going on today. not the president's tweet, but about what happened that has caused the biggest percentage drop on the market this entire year. >> well, i think investors are coming to the conclusion that recession risks are uncomfortably high and rising. and the principle reason for that is the president's tariff war, trade war. it's doing a lot of damage to the economy. business investment has...

In fact, the last time the u.s. was in the middle of a significant economic downturn back in 2008 when president george w. bush was in office, that recession worked against the republican presidential candidate, senator john mccain. joining me now is someone who is right in the middle of that campaign, mark zammi. he is the chief economist for moodies. i'm also joined by jennifer rubenstein and john harwood, host of the cnbc digital series "speakeasy with john harwood." make sense of what is going on today. not the president's tweet, but about what happened that has caused the biggest percenta...

$100 billion, about a half a percent of gdp, about half the size of the tax cut last year. it's sizable. with an economy starting to struggle, that could do a lot of damage. >> i know it's only one-eighth of the deficit. it does run up quickly. before we go, bank of america saying there is a one in three chance of a recession before election day. how dire is that risk to you? >> well, i think if the president follows through on his threats, i think the odds of a recession are better than even. we talked about the tariffs and the higher tax increase that would be. the real damage would come bec...