The Yield Curve Is Sending A Recession Warning
In this article, MCM focuses on the Treasury yield curve, which is sending its sharpest warning about recession risks since 1981.
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In this article, MCM focuses on the Treasury yield curve, which is sending its sharpest warning about recession risks since 1981.
Even in a terrible year for stocks such as 2022, there were three strong rebounds as investors experienced bouts of optimism for one reason or another.
In this article, I examine the effect of the Fed’s actions on major markets and provide a near-term (1-2 quarters) market outlook.
Stocks attempted to rally in the first half of the month but turned decisively down on August 19. The highly-anticipated speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Aug 26, in which he reiterated his hawkish view on inflation (see Economic Update), reinforced the negative trend. The S&P 500 ended August down 4.2%.
By Roman Chuyan, CFA Our 6-month Equity model’s forecast for the S&P 500 drops to -8.4%, and the Short-Term Risk model continues with a Sell signal. Both models dictate continued defensive positioning. I review the 2021 highlights and offer my thoughts on what lies ahead in the new year. I hope you and your family hadRead More