"Scoring probability forecasts by a user's bets against a market consen" by David Johnstone, Stewart Jones et al.
The purpose of our paper is to describe a probability scoring rule that reflects the economic performance of a hypothetical investor who acts upon the probability forecasts emanating from a given model or human expert by trading against a market-clearing consensus of competing models and forecasts. The probability forecasts being compared are aggregated by an equilibrium condition into a market consensus reflecting the wisdom of the crowd. A good forecaster (model or human expert) is measured as one who allows the user to bet profitably against the market consensus. By asking forecasts to beat...
Source: uow.edu.au