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She'd probably need about 70% of what's to come. the democrat also say, hey, maybe our voters, the energy was there to go out and vote today. maybe they were the late -- some argument like that. 70%. that's an awful steep hill to climb. but i can tell you this. first of all, this is much closer than we are accustomed to seeing in this district. second of all, the associated press, they have called this race for lesko, but i can tell you that nbc news is not prepared to call this race for debbie lesko because we want to see when they start counting the vote today, how many people showed up. was...

Maybe our voters, the energy was there to go out and vote today. maybe they were the late -- some argument like that. 70%. that's an awful steep hill to climb. but i can tell you this. first of all, this is much closer than we are accustomed to seeing in this district. second of all, the associated press, they have called this race for lesko, but i can tell you that nbc news is not prepared to call this race for debbie lesko because we want to see when they start counting the vote today, how many people showed up. was there an energy difference? did democrats somehow suddenly swamp it on elect...

Plus 21 district. this was a romney plus 25 district. a lot of people have been looking at these special elections we've had around the country for the last year and sometimes you could look at alabama and say, hey, roy moore, you know, there was the whole issue with sexual assault. it catches for all these republicans. this is as red a republican district as we have seen a special election in, and we're looking at a six-point race here that might even close further. so we're going to keep an eye on these other votes. debbie lesko leading right now in this thing. it would be sort of the hail m...

Well this did freeze the race ia place for a couple of days. but you look at polls this morning out, a new one in pennsylvania, has it tied. new hampshire, a poll there has it tied. ohio. the dispatch poll, plus two obama, within the margin of error. florida poll, miami herald has right now romney plus six. so we go into this weekend, and republicans hoping this is a replay of 1980 where ronald reagan made a late break. but reagan had started his break a little earlier. by sunday, jimmy carter knew the race was over. if this is a late break, it's a really late break. looking at the polls, romn...

Margin of error. again, this is all based on polls from the last 30 days. okay. carl. what has changed since we last map? >> this map looks familiar because there are no changes in the last week. it shows obama plus lean at 225. romney plus leans at 191. 122 electoral votes in yellow state for tossup. not because we haven't had polling. 13 surveys over the last week and nine states but four of the states that didn't affect the average. in the other five, while it. aed the number, it didn't affect the status. four states moved in the romney direction. florida went from minus two for romney to t...