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Delinquencies, and you re going to see this huge spike. i mean, we haven t really seen driven question si rates like this forever. at least one late-notice on some of them. what is your view on this market for the next 12 months? do you think we re going to get a real recovery here? no, absolutely not. and the more we try to use government regulation or tax breaks to artificially prop the market, the worse off we re going to do. i think we re going to see the foreclosure numbers hit the 4million mark. i m not so, i m not very bullish, unfortunately, on the real estate market. there are, obviously, some great deals, but it s going to take time to flush them through. jenna: you know, sam, can government involvement actually help the housing market? i think most economists are of the viewpoint and certainly i can t speak for, you know, the full array, but there s a really hard case to make here for the government s footprint in the housing sector to be quite as large as it is, as it h ....
If we re investing that much money, maybe upwards of a trillion dollars, are we getting our money s worth? i think the investments are structured as a senior preferred share agreement, so this isn t public taxpayer money that is simply being handed over to fannie and freddie. it is in the form of senior preferred shares, and there are obligations that go along with that, payments that have to be made back to the treasury and the public purse. jenna: but will they ever pay that back, sam? that is a great question. i think it really is an open question, one that has a lot to do with what their future structure will be. right now we know that they don t generate enough income to make the obligations that they ve already taken on through this program. and so this question, well, how do we restructure them, what will housing finance look like? which is a much bigger question than just what do we do with fannie mae and freddie mac. unfortunately, jenna, there is no consensus that has eme ....
Low mortgage rates, but who has a job to afford it? i just bought, so it s not necessarily all bad. jenna: oh, you did? if you re going to buy for the long term and be there for over a decade, make sure you love the house. go ahead and buy. but this is not a time to go in and think you re going to flip in six months or a year. jenna: good point. sam, did you buy a house too? in 2004. i ve been able to hold my own so far. jenna: that s good. at least there is some buyers in the market. mark and sam and dani as well, look forward to having you kauais back guys back soon. gregg: i ve got a house, it s a doghouse at the moment. ten years before it s normal? i ll be in a nursing home by then. all right. how pornographers are targeting teens and others, forcing them to pose for explicit photos and videotapes. plus, live shot of times square, why tourism in the big apple is hotter than ever. so are the temps today, in the 90s. that s next. and in the meantime, check out what stories a ....
Still dominating market activity, and that s going to make it very difficult. we also don t have a normalization around mortgage rates in part because of the inflows and outflows as people see changes in the economy. jenna: we just lost dani. maybe that was her answer. i know how she feels. sam, really quick, you said a couple of years. i know economists don t necessarily like to give specifics, do you mean, like, two, or ten? yeah, later on, a decade out, potentially, before we see real normalization, robust activity in the housing market. we ve got to be careful, jenna, i know people have focused a lot of attention on, well, you know, how many new homes are we building, what s permitting like? in a lot of communities around the country we need to be very careful about this. expansion of supply in housing is not necessarily something that s going to be helpful, and we should be very careful about putting in place incentive programs that might encourage new development where it s not ....
Necessarily need those new projects, so it s a tough thing. mark, real quick, how long do you think it s going to take before we see a more regular housing market and maybe better regulation too? i have to largely agree with sam on this, we re going to be a number of years, five or six minimum, before most parts of the country start to see, you know, solid appreciation. i actually think for the next year in many parts of the country we re going to see continued declines, probably 5 maybe even 10% in some places. we re threw most of through most of it, but not all of it by in means. many of these government incentives actually increase the level of supply production. in and a lot of parts of the country they re still building far more than they should be, so we have a very long ways away before we re going to start working down the inventory. and it s hard to see mortgage rates going much lower, and that s going to have pressure down on house prices a year or two from now. jenna: gr ....