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Republican turnout surged even though there was no real catalyst to make it surge. and that's what i talk about in my 2020 forecast, learning from 2018 that trump was able to actually artificially inflate or, you know, manifest that negative partisanship emotion in the republican electorate and unbeknownst to most people, that's what the campaign strategy is. so when you look at what trump is doing, when he seems to be working at cross purposes, you know, talking about the squad, what he's trying to do is keep that republican emotion really high and it certainly did work for him in 2018. even ...

Issue because the only thing that he has going for him in this 2020 cycle is that locked in, you know, base and it's comprised of evangelicals, as rachel's show was documenting, and also these second amendment voters. and second amendment voters, they have a take no prisoner mentality. so that is a policy that makes absolute sense to, you know, 90% of americans, but not to those, you know, 10% of voters that are going to make up a real key constituency to his re-election. >> so your analysis is built on what you saw in virginia state elections in 2017. and then you applied that to the 2018 mod...

They don't yet understand how to campaign and capitalize on emotion, right? they like to talk about gun control where, oh, we're going to, you know, initiate a background check policy but they don't really know how to tap into voter emotions and the right obviously does. so, you know, with trump to be honest with you, i think in his heart of hearts he probably wishes that he could take this off the table, but he cannot. i mean, this is the one issue in which the base has him held hostage. he cannot capitulate on this issue because the only thing that he has going for him in this 2020 cycle is ...

What he's trying to do is keep that republican emotion really high and it certainly did work for him in 2018. even though a lot of the punditry doesn't recognize it. >> so, for example, in today's decision, it wasn't really a decision, but in his position on background checks where he's siding with basically 10% of the population, it's your view that he's relying on that 10% to be disproportionately represented at the polls because they have a kind of 100% incentive for turnout? >> well, it is always true that the nra and the second amendment voting block is just fantastic at turnout. it will ...