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Great warships. the chinese love to use navys as vessels, chinese fishermen could lay claim to a rock that japan could try to intercept. you could have tit for tat that could erupt. asian countries like to strike poses but it could escalate into something where neither side could pull back and you can have what's been forecast short, sharp war. >> and you can imagine some crisis and then neither side, the chinese nor the japanese, can back down because they can't appear weak to their publics. >> absolutely. if you look at opinion polls in japan, you get polls of 90% and very similar figures in...

States domination of the western hemisphere. >> then you have the east china seas which is the area between china and japan, basically. >> yes. >> to me this is the most dangerous because it involves two very big, rich countries, the second and third largest economies in the world. and countries with huge defense budgets. we saw one version of what could happen. a ship captain takes his boat into these waters. play out for us what you think could happen. >> the east china sea is a more acute problem for the united states because frankly speaking, the united states will probably not go to the w...

Welcome. >> thank you. >> is it making sense to look at all this and particularly the east china seas? >> yes, but it doesn't's quito war, it equates to a more complicated world, fifth generation fighter jets that can easily create incidents that in turn could enable a crisis. in other words, this is a region that's going to be on the boil for years and years to come. >> there you can see the countries we're talking about, japan, china, the two richest countries in asia, but next to it lots of small countries that are many concerns. geoff, when you look at this, is it easy to say at the heart ...

One backs down. they start following a bigger society, and the people running these societies figure out that the only way of holding power is by driving down the rates of violence and violent death. you want to get up and plow your fields, pay your taxes and so on. you don't want angry subjects killing each other. >> so there were about 500 states in europe all quarrelling with each other and going off to war. and in a strange sense, many subdued the level of violence because now there were only five or six of them. >> exactly, yes. there are fewer big powers fighting the wars, and the wars t...