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The president has at the national and state level, and the state numbers are really just starting to take on some relevance, the state numbers -- >> it's wet cement. >> the numbers have not been this for him for a long -- he's stat tick. here is the thing about florida, ohio, and virginia. republicans and the republican brand vastly underperformed in all of those states by four percentage points in ohio, and 3.2 in florida. if republicans do better than half, get half of that back in their turn out modelling, then romney is in all three of those states very, very competitively, but they have t...

A 6-point spread, 48-42. what do these numbers tell us about where this race is nationally. chuck todd, chief white house correspondent and correspondent for the wall street journal. when you look at these state numbers in the key states of florida, virginia and ohio, what do they tell you about the shape of the race in terms of the electoral college and the population? >> number one, you first look at -- when an incumbent is running for reelection, their number this far out is more than the challenger number. basically, he is at a reelectricir reelectable number at 48. and that's where obama ...

Modelling in there, romney moves up a little. >> so is he walking on a cliff? would the president slip? >> we haven't seen that sign yet. the president has at the national and state level, and the state numbers are really just starting to take on some relevance, the state numbers -- >> it's wet cement. >> the numbers have not been this for him for a long -- he's stat tick. here is the thing about florida, ohio, and virginia. republicans and the republican brand vastly underperformed in all of those states by four percentage points in ohio, and 3.2 in florida. if republicans do better than half...

And let me finish tonight with my take on the stark way, in fact wild way, that this election is headed. we start with the power of newt gingrich. howard fineman is the msnbc political analyst, of course, "the huffington post" media group editorial director and michael scherr is the white house correspondent for "time." michael, i want you to go through some of the newspaper. let me begin with this stunning new state numbers out from "time" tonight showing incredible gains in strength for newt gingrich. take a will be at florida, a state where mitt was going to turn it around. newt has blown...

Through his charity, the second mile. and let me finish tonight with my take on the stark way, in fact wild way, that this election is headed. we start with the power of newt gingrich. howard fineman is the msnbc political analyst, of course, "the huffington post" media group editorial director and michael scherr is the white house correspondent for "time." michael, i want you to go through some of the newspaper. let me begin with this stunning new state numbers out from "time" tonight showing incredible gains in strength for newt gingrich. take a will be at florida, a state where mitt was g...