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Daily baseball statistical analysis and commentary.

Daily baseball statistical analysis and commentary.

Last week, I unveiled my newest xHR/FB rate equation, v4.0. On Thursday, I dove into Std Dev of Dist FB+LD, which is one of the components of the equation and not a metric that is typically discussed because the values need to be calculated manually. Today, let’s move along to Avg Dist FB+LD, which is a much more familiar metric. It’s simply the average distance of a batter’s fly balls and line drives. Naturally, all else being equal, the higher the average, the greater the HR/FB rate. First, let’s review the average distance in my population set by year, which includes all batter sea...

Now that my xHR/FB rate v4.0 equation has been revealed, let’s dive into the components of the equation and get to know each one of them. We’ll start with Std Dev of Dist FB+LD (SDD), which is the standard deviation of the batter’s fly balls and line drives. This is important because just knowing the average distance of those batted balls isn’t enough. A batter who alternates 400 foot blasts with 200 foot blasts is going to record a much greater HR/FB rate than the batter with consistent 300 foot shots (this batter likely owns a 0% HR/FB rate). Yet, both hitters will post the same ave...