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Diplomats warned that if you took down saddam hussein, chaos would follow. >> my colleagues and i just tried to highlight, you know, the downsides and the complexities, the day after saddam hussein's iraq. we didn't get it all right, we got lots of things wrong in that memo, our vision was imperfect as well. but we were trying to puncture the triumphalism in the run-up to the war in iraq. and you hear those same assumptions from the administration today, the ease with which things would flow on the day after. if there's anything i've learned, the mideast is the region of unintended consequence...

International security, ian b a brzezinski, i sort of know him, he's my brother. and a national security analyst, and now president of the carnegie endowment for international peace, william burns, author of "the back channel," memoir for american diplomacy, a case for its renewal." we'll get to the book in just a moment. ian, evelyn, the panel. when we think of russia, do we think of a military risk to member of nato or do they have a rusting, old arsenal and they're not to be worried about so much? >> they're a definite risk. just look at ukraine and georgia, crimea-occupied russian