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harvard physicist. a look at the way your mind works and doesn t. fascinating conversation with nobel prize winner daniel kahneman. a big birthday but an awkward time to throw a big birthday bash. i ll explain. first my take. it s the start of the new year and we will do predictions on this show. i thought i d try my own hand at some before asking others to risk their reputations. and in the spirit of keeping myself honest, i m going to look back at what i said and wrote in time magazine at the start of last year and see how i did. it s always risky to stick your neck out and humbling to look at your predictions but here goes. the only indulgence i allow myself is to start with areas i did well. i said i thought china would moderate its foreign policy behavior recognizing its assertiveness and arrogance over the last year had caused jitters throughout asia. i think that happened. i said the taliban s momentum would be broken in afghanistan. it has somewhat. i said ....

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