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Are different than some of the national public polls, that look at turnout scores and turnout modelling. but that's based on past voter propensity. you talk these estimates into account and look at the different range of turnout scenarios to see what the range of outcomes will look like. but -- and then we have now early voting which in some states is starting to look democratic, and some states it's actually a little more republican. is that a signer where things end up? or is that just election day voters who are just voting early as opposed to election day. these are all questions we won't ...

And we can take them at their word. we can use other information. there is certainly internal polls and campaign polls that are different than some of the national public polls, that look at turnout scores and turnout modelling. but that's based on past voter propensity. you talk these estimates into account and look at the different range of turnout scenarios to see what the range of outcomes will look like. but -- and then we have now early voting which in some states is starting to look democratic, and some states it's actually a little more republican. is that a signer where things end up?...

The obama number sticks right at 48. >> could the president slip down to the 44s rather than 48? is he that close to trouble? >> we haven't seen that sign yet. the president has, at the national level and the state level, and the state numbers are just trying to take on some relevance. it's wet cement but -- the national numbers have not been 44, 42, 43 for the president in a long while, not since august. but here's what we think about florida, ohio and virginia. republicans and the republican brand vastly underperformed in all three of those states by 4% aj points in ohio, 4.3 in virginia and...