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And this current republican party. but it is where their base is. and, look, i think if we have the 2010 or 2014 electorate, republicans are going to do very well. if we have a different kind of electorate, i think republicans are going to struggle. so those moderate middle of the road voters along with young voters who are turning out at less than half the rate that boomers and the greatest generation voters are turning out at, they're allowing them to dictate their future if in fact we can have a different kind of profound turnout, i think we change this country. there is two electorates. on...

Among african-americans, if it is, jones will lose. will it be low turnout among suburban republicans who normally vote republican, who voted for president trump, but who may be unhappy with judge moore. if so, he will probably lose. we aren't going to have a sense of this until late this afternoon. we'll at least see where the turnout patterns are. >> bill: okay. late this afternoon is that based on exit polling? why do you say that? >> just on raw numbers. who is turning up. you can tell from the precinct results. >> bill: it has been a messy election, we'll concede that together during this...

Down. the tension here is historically republican constituencies vote more in the midterm, older whites than democratic constituents. those democratic landing constituents are extremely negative on trump. whether that changes the historical turnout patterns will help determine who is holding the house in 2018. >> let's move from polls to policies. senator david purdue and tom cotton proposed this immigration overhaul that would slash legal immigration over the next decade by 50% and the white house supports it. now, there's also all sorts of senators who say this would cripple their states. so...

But i'll eat crow. i believe the data. although i thought trump, and i said it publicly in the summer of 2015, could be the republican nominee, i never thought he could pass the threshold of acceptability as president of the united states. i was wrong. the turnout patterns change. i do think comey's announcement on sunday had an impact. and i think that impact was hurtful to clinton. and finally, when you look at this whole thing, hillary clinton was the first democratic candidate for president in my lifetime, who ran without an economic message. you change about 50,000 votes out of 12 million...

Ten points on election day to win the state if, indeed, it's even close to what the turnout patterns have been. that is almost impossible. that is why you hear him in reno right now. a little earlier complaining about voter fraud and complaining that they kept those polls open so late. they know the score in nevada, chris, and it's not good for them. >> i'm trying to find the quote. i think you were watching this live. it was -- was it the county chairman or the state chairman for the nevada -- >> state. >> the state chairman of nevada that said they kept the polls open last night so those peo...