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ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

MacroBusiness Access Subscriber Only Content at 12:00 pm on July 26, 2021 | 2 comments Over this year we have watched as various Wall Street investment houses have made a hash of sector rotations and equity factors.  Today I can report that they are increasingly falling in behind MB (which may not be a good thing!). The most bearish on stocks and hawkish on inflation has been BofA. No longer! Tale of the Tape: China = best government bond marketYTD (4.5%), 2nd best currency vs US$ (0.9%), worst HY bond market (-4.8%, spreads>1000bps), worst MSCI equity index (-5.7%); like Japan 1990-2007, Ch...

MacroBusiness Access Subscriber Only Content More grist for the growth scare mill from a new Goldman note: 11 point Checklist – Consensus client feedback for a quick equity risk reduction into potentially lower buy demand into Jackson hole. The consensus feedback seems to be calling for a -5% correction, which really gets to -4%. This is a recap of the talking points about to hit your inbox this week. I think this morning’s rally gets faded as buy tickets are completed early in the day. “Selling rallies” is the new dynamic vs. buying dips. 1. Weak Seasonals – Since 1928, we just e...

by Tyler Durden Wednesday, May 26, 2021 - 11:55 AM It may not feel like it, but the market is pretty much dead: as we noted last night, Tuesday's consolidated volume just tumbled to the lowest of 2021, while total options volume yesterday was 540,000, which was less than Christmas Eve and also the lowest volume of 2021. What's going on here? Well, according to Nomura's Charlie McElligott, the " chokeheld" market is acting frozen because it is "stuffed to death on options Gamma", with a ton of vol selling seen so far this week particularly in single names, whether via covered call overwriting...

by Tyler Durden Thursday, May 20, 2021 - 01:09 PM As discussed earlier, a quick look at the "gamma tilt" in markets, suggests that there is more downside risk than upside ahead of tomorrow's sizable op-ex, which sees roughly 30% of dealer Gamma drop-off in SPX / SPY consolidated options, but even more notably, half to gamma in QQQ and 55% in IWM is also about to roll-off. Here are the details on the various gamma strikes and sizes courtesy of Nomura's Charlie McElligott who notes that the largest SPX strike is at 4100 ($4.1B), and from there it’s the 4050 strike ($3.0B) to the downside and ...