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Point swings? we've seen some of that. are those the same people being re-asked the question? does the 11 point swing represent two people? how does some of the data get acquired? >> a lot has to go with the likely voter model and how you decide that is the person incredibly enthusiastic or know if they go to the polls or have a good idea? every different poll has a different secret sauce on how they try to determine who the likely voter is going to the polls and i think that's one of the big reasons why you often have differentiation and our nbc survey monkey poll, an online poll with 40,000 ...

>> very smart. the erm voting numbers are high but democrats are just pushing people who would have otherwise pushed -- voted on election day to vote earlier. that is not the case. typically people who vote early are a different set of voters. they are going after people who you would call sporadic voters who, in a lot of the polls, won't even show up in the likely voter model. they show up as registered voters but when you narrow it down t. will be unlikely for them to show up there. and going back to the points that jonathan made and the coalition that he's been assembling and also about thi...

When you drill into the likely voter model, they're tied. what is the preponderance in the poll, it's the southerners, the south. that poll is telling you romney's base now is a group of very conservative mainly southern americans who have really byzantine in a lot of ways beliefs about women. >> indeed. final question to you, krystal. 12 days to go, romney and ryan are skeschewing all interview opportunities. we showed him earlier running away from the press. i guess they just lock this down for 12 days and stop revealing what they really think? >> well, i think it's a very bad strategy becau...

Voters. they are did he haefinite voter. what we're tapping into, i think, is a very clear campaign strategy on the part of the obama campaign team. obama is running up the score right now. >> would you ever look at this and consider this -- that some of the confusion on the gallup likely voter model has to do with the early vote? would you ever consider wait in the early vote, waiting it down? i'm not saying we should do this about as a statistician, would that be a number you would consider? >> no, no, no. you wouldn't know what to weight to. it's like party i.d. you're just pulling out numb...

We had a likely voter model that had the president only up 3%. the question is why. what is going on that has republicans doing better and becoming more likely voters? it's simply an enthusiasm gap. and we're seeing it across the board. look in the first one. 79% of republicans call themselves extremely interested in this election. on a scale of one to 10, they say they are a 9 or 10 on interest in the election. 73% of democrats. look at four years ago. it was a 13-point gap in favor of the democrats. let me go through some various voting groups. this is an important voting group. seniors are ...