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What happened to April payrolls? No one is quite sure.  One possibility is that the BLS seasonal adjustment was far off the mark.The unadjusted Nonfarm Payrolls number was 1.089 million. A seasonal adjustment designed to smooth out recurring monthly swings reduced it to the issued figure of 266,000. These revisions are based on the historical record.  Do assumptions founded in normal seasonal hiring patterns have any predictive value for a time frame as unusual as the past 15 months? In a normal year summer temporary hiring that might begin in April and May would be discounted as part of lo...

Stephen Guilfoyle in his Market Recon column decries deceptive jobs data, talks up AMC Entertainment (AMC) matinee trading, identifies Ford (F) and Nvidia (NVDA) as breakout candidates, notes that an infrastructure bill may be closer, and tells the Federal Reserve to wake up....AMC

Thursday's Close Shave, Troubling New Highs and Lows, Peloton Kicks Into Gear The market came within whiskers of a technical breakdown on Thursday, yet few people seem to know or care. May 07, 2021 | 07:28 AM EDT The timing of that late surge of demand across financial markets on Thursday was absolutely extraordinary. In this very column, 24 hours ago, I touched on the fact that the Nasdaq Composite had been put in the position of defending its own 50 day SMA (simple moving average) for a couple days. I went on to illustrate how Cathie Wood's ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) had similarly sp...

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Get Your Game On, Powell Stumbles, Greatness Awaits, Sizing Up Friday Let's see what, if any, impact the February labor market data have on the markets. Mar 05, 2021 | 07:31 AM EST Glory I got to my desk here on Friday morning at 03:30. Not early. Not late. Usual time. For the first half hour or so, I try not to even look at social media or anything like that. For 30 minutes I just absorb as much data, read as much opinion, think about what I am trying to do, and drain my first cup of coffee. By 4 a.m. all my trading systems are up, my emails read, and I am pretty much ready to rock.