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They are apparently going to do it. they're going to hold the vote. house majority leader tells nbc news tonight that by 7:00 p.m. tomorrow, republicans, in his words, will have passed their bill to repeal obamacare and throw 24 million americans off their health insurance. it still does not look at all like the republicans for sure have the votes they need. they can't get nor do they appear to want any democrats' votes. that means their magic number in terms of no votes from republicans is 21. if 22 republicans vote no, the bill is dead. nbc has been doing a whip count of no votes. and the li...

>> paul ryan, the speaker, has repeatedly also said that he's not going to try to jamb this bill down members' throats. but you believe that's what he's trying to do, right? >> well, if they bring this bill to the floor tomorrow, they're going to be jamming something down some throats because i'll tell you what, the votes aren't there right now. they are short votes. >> how short are they in >> i've been saying all week they're short two dozen votes. and they said oh, we're good, we like where we are. that's been false all week. the speaker could have saved us some trouble by acknowledging tha...

Is there anything different about making these kind of predictions without having the factual evidence as president? president trump responds, i'm a very instinctual person but my instinct turns out to be right. chris and alisyn, back to you. >> we'll have that reporter on with us to share his take on that very telling interview soon, joe. thank you very much. now to the showdown over health care. in just hours the house is expected to hold a cliff-hanger vote on the gop's plan to repeal and replace obamacare. republicans at this hour are still divided. cnn's whip count has 28 republicans vo...

. i never quite understood the mad rush. what i believe the issue right now is that the plan is to send this bill over to the senate so the senate can rewrite it and then tell us what is in it and send it back to us. i mean, it seems we are vending much of our authority over to the senate at this point. i think it's important that we get this right rather than get it done fast. >> joe? >> charlie, what is the likelihood this bill passes tonight if mainstream republicans like you have the concerns and conservatives also have their concerns as well? >> well, i don't know. i haven't done a whip c...

Would they have the numbers? >> reporter: we've been looking at 30 people in our whip count. i would have to break it down one person at a time to tell you exactly who falls into which category. the last i was going through it, there were eight or so people who would fall into that moderate camp of people. the minority of people have come out and said, they don't want to vote for this. that is the challenge because even if the house speaker and president convince those moderates to come back on board, there's not necessarily enough of them to make up the difference that these at last count alm...