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Different, jon. there are always political win winds, not necessarily hurricane winds, that create a bounce at a convention. sometimes there's no bounce because a candidate is already too well, like president nixon is this -- in 1972. other times, for example, john kerry in 2004 got zero bounce out of his convention, and it kind of predicted that he would come close but couldn't get over the 50% mark. so that's why we pay attention to the size of the bounce. and it will vary from romney to obama. i don't think they'll get the same size bounce. jon: you say that republicans, according to your r...

Message, is it? then there's benghazi, another potential lapped mine for republicans. even conservatives see only trouble for republicans on that issue. here's krauthammer earlier this month on fox. >> this is 2014. the win winds are right behind the republicans approaching the election on all the major issues. obamacare, the issues are on the republican side. benghazi hearings can only distract from this at best. and really wreck it at worst if they turn into a partisan circus. >> and then there are the party's structural problems. with demographic, made worse by the fact that immigration ref...

Even conservatives see only trouble for republicans on that issue. here's krauthammer earlier this month on fox. >> this is 2014. the win winds are right behind the republicans approaching the election on all the major issues. obamacare, the issues are on the republican side. benghazi hearings can only distract from this at best. and really wreck it at worst if they turn into a partisan circus. >> and then there are the party's structural problems. with demographic, made worse by the fact that immigration reform is going nowhere in the congress. the hispanic population of this country has rise...