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Low volume rallies have become a standard of trending recently.  We see higher volume when volatility kicks in near areas of broad market volatility.  Otherwise, we see lower volume trending push the prices higher recently in a “melt-up” type of mode. Two recent standout events confirm this type of trending and volatility phases of the markets: (1) the September 2020 to early November 2020 (pre-US Election) rotation in price; and (2) the recent February 2021 to late March 2021 sideways price rotation related to the FOMC meeting/comments.  Both of these events centered aro...

My shorter-term analysis for the markets continues to stay Bullish and suggests the US reflation trade, the strengthening of the US and the global economy, and recovery from the COVID-19 restrictions will likely prompt a moderately strong upside price trend leading into at least mid Q2:2021.  The recent strength of the US Dollar is helping to push capital into the US markets as foreign investors attempt to shift capital away from Emerging Market and currency weakness and the Treasury Yield rallies seem to have indicated a moderate warning related to global central banks attem...

My research team and I continue to believe the Cannabis/Alternative sector is poised for a big trend in 2021 and 2022.  Over the past few years, this sector has continued to trend lower after the hype of 2016~2018 – back when everyone was getting into the Cannabis industry as multiple US states authorized recreational and medical use.  After the 2018 peak, followed by the early 2019 moderate price recovery, this entire industry sector fell out of favor with investors for almost 2 full years. MJ Pennant Setup Almost Complete The peak in the MJ, Alternative Harvest ETF, in Sep...

In this second part of our exploration of the recent US Dollar rally and what it may be reacting to in relation to the current US stock market highs and continued rally, we will explore some of the underlying factors that are translating into US Dollar strength while the US stock market continues to push higher. In the first part of this research article, we highlighted the US Dollar reaction to the 2008-09 credit market crisis and how the US Dollar actually started to bottom/rally in early 2008 – just as the rollover top in the US stock markets continued to setup.  The way t...

The recent news of Hedge Fund and other institutional crisis events has opened many eyes as investors and traders realize the post-2008-09 global market credit bubble has extended well beyond what many people may realize.  Recent news that China offered a “deferment” for Chinese corporations and state-run enterprises content with shadow banking credit/debt issues at a time when China is tightening monetary policy shows that a process, like the 2008 Lehman incident, may be setting up where institutional level credit/debt liabilities ripple through the global markets as glo...