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That is a 30% lead over nikki haley at 20%, followed by ron desantis at 16. joining me now is merlin congresswoman, donna edwards. susan del percio, republican strategist. and former florida congressman, david jolly. all three, nbc political analyst. welcome to you all. susan, you first. if the polls production is correct, and trump takes iowa, history suggests that it is necessarily guarantee he will be that nominee, then again, trump often defies precedence. how important is the hawkeye state is the grand scheme of things? >> for donald trump, i don't see how he loses it at this point, given...

Desantis? i think momentum is on haley side. recently, i got to think about desantis. there is one thing that could lead him to a second place finish, that is a governor kim reynolds, popular governor of iowa, has endorsed him, and does have a ground operation that, in the middle of a snowstorm, and record lows, people will come out for her. if not for him. >> there is something else, david. early projections are expecting rhonda scent is to do well in iowa due to his popularity among evangelicals. however, in that poll, desantis is trailing nikki haley. if he ends up liking behind her tomorro...

His presence at this debate, or his lack of presence, i should say, his absence, was very noticeable. he is the person who would have, in the first hour that debate, we are just washed, so not raised his hand and lately, maybe, maybe not and said what are we drawing here? i mean we just heard the former defense secretary say the former president told me he would shoot people in the street. and that was absent and instead, i've done a lot of campaigns. this reminded me of a senate or a gubernatorial debate a little bit where the each have the opposition research book that you have on the campai...

>> i drew that straw. i got the email like okay, all right. we will traded for pizza for your staff. so i watch the second part and it was the fifth maybe even the final official republican debate. they're supposed to be won in new hampshire a week or so. it lasted two hours and it was very weird because it mostly featured wrong desantis and nikki haley going after each other in this very snipe-y, at times petty way. south carolina respectively, their trustworthiness, nikki haley had this repeated implication of a new website called us and slides. i don't know if you guys got to that. >> i was...

His time, including this week, attending hearings in various legal cases that he is embroiled in. he's been attending those proceedings even though legally he does not have to. while mostly ignoring iowa. in the week before the iowa caucuses. it's a weird year. it's a weird time. but that's where we are is a 2024 contest gets underway. the first american presidential election in which the front runner for me -- is feasting multiple criminal indictments, when the actual little roll meaning of the word, that's unprecedented, and of course the stakes could not be higher. course the sta >> but h...