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Headline Durable Goods New Orders Improved Again In December 2020 The headlines say the durable goods new orders improved for the eighth consecutive month. Our analysis shows the rolling averages improved. . The data this month was within expectations - and, the previous month was revised up. In the adjusted data, the improvement was again driven by defense aircraft and motor vehicles Econintersect Analysis: unadjusted new orders growth was unchanged (after accelerating 4.6 % the previous month) month-over-month and is now up 3.8 % year-over-year. the three month rolling average for unadjuste...

Analyst Opinion of the Import / Export Price Situation Per the BLS: U.S. import prices advanced 0.9 percent in December, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, following a 0.2-percent increase the previous month. Higher fuel and nonfuel prices both contributed to the December rise in import prices. Prices for U.S. exports also rose in December, advancing 1.1 percent, after increasing 0.7 percent in November. Note that: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic Impact on December 2020 Import and Export Price Index Data The Bureau of Labor Statistics did not make changes to either the colle...

Written by Steven HansenEconintersect's Economic Index forecast continues to see a recovery underway from the pandemic induced recession - although the recovery continues to be modest and the economy remains weak. We see a stronger economy in January. The coronavirus daily totals continue at, or nearly at, record territory - and any attempt to lockdown with a weak economy will trigger a double dip recession.

November 2020 Real Income and Expenditures Declined The data continues to be affected by the pandemic. Expenditures declined month-over-month (and is in contraction year-over-year) whilst income also declined month-over-month (but is in expansion year-over-year). Analyst Opinion of Personal Income and Expenditures The note from the BEA says it all: The November estimate for personal income and outlays was impacted by the response to the spread of COVID-19. Federal economic recovery payments slowed as pandemic-related assistance programs continued to wind down. The full economic effects of the...

November 2020 Headline Industrial Production Improves But Remains In Contraction The headlines say seasonally adjusted Industrial Production (IP) improved month-over-month - but remains deep in contraction year-over-year. Our analysis shows the three-month rolling average improved. Analyst Opinion of Industrial Production The best way to view this is the 3-month rolling averages which improved. Industrial production increased 0.4 percent in November. After having fallen 16.5 percent between February and April, the level of the index has risen to about 5 percent below its pre-pandemic (Februar...