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Hungarian central bank meeting in focus

5/21/2021 1:53:38 PM GMT
Next week in CEE
Next week’s Hungarian central bank meeting will be meticulously watched. Whereas the meeting itself should leave the key rate at 0.6%, the bank is likely to clarify its view on the tightening suggested by Vice Governor Virág for June. Given the current setup of the policy toolkit, we expect the policy rate (0.6%) and the 1-week depo rate (0.75%) to be merged and hiked to 0.9% at the June meeting, when the new inflation report will be out. It is unclear yet whether this would start a tightening cycle, given the still very accommodative monetary policy of major central banks. Croatia will publish its 1Q21 GDP growth which we expect at 0.5% y/y, supported by private consumption and investment. Following the release, we will likely revise the 2021 forecast upward to some extent. Croatia, Slovenia and Poland will all publish their April retail sales prints which were likely pushed up to the strong doubledigit region around 30-35% y/y ....

Vice Governor Vir , Vice Governor Virag , Central Banks , துணை கவர்னர் வீர் , மைய வங்கிகள் ,

December real economy data for Poland

1/18/2021 8:46:35 AM GMT
This week in CEE
This week will be relatively empty for data releases in CEE. Besides some labor market statistics for Croatia, Poland, and Slovakia, the December retail sales for Poland will be disclosed as well. As Poland eased restrictions at the beginning of December, we expect improvement of retail sales y/y dynamics towards -0.8% in December, from the -5.3% y/y reported in November. Given that industry has been performing well during the second wave, we see clear upward risks to our 2020 GDP growth forecast, which stands at -3.3%. Depending on the outcome of retail sales and industrial output in December, full-year growth could be actually 0.5-1.0pp better at the end. We will already know next week, when not only industrial output is due, but also 2020 GDP growth will be reported for Poland. ....

Index After , Governor Glapinski , Vice Governor Vir , Central Banks , துணை கவர்னர் வீர் , மைய வங்கிகள் ,