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The Boy Who Cried Inflation


Economists and central bankers have warned about a spike in inflation over and over again since the 2008 global financial crisis, but inflation remained low and investors subsequently numbed to the warnings. Could this time be different? Maybe.
The average inflation rate shrank in each of the prior four decades. It clocked in at 7.4% in the 1970s but declined to a tiny 1.8% in the 2010s. Unprecedented fiscal stimulus didn t lead to meaningfully higher inflation following the 2008 financial crisis, and in 2012, the Federal Reserve established a 2.0% inflation target that it couldn t quite reach. Near-zero interest rates and supportive fiscal policies have, at various points in the preceding decade, led to dire predictions of runaway inflation, but it never happened. No matter the efforts of central banks, inflation remained stubbornly low. ....

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Where to Look for Income in a Low-Yield World


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Where did the income go? A recession led high-quality yields lower in 2020, and fiscal and monetary support spurred a lower-quality rebound that kept yields pretty low across the board. But yield isn t everything. As Morningstar s director of personal finance Christine Benz and others have pointed out, you can also invest for total return and sell some of your appreciated mutual funds and stocks to pay some expenses in retirement. Certainly, it makes sense to be flexible rather than chase yield.
But to see how things shake out today, I looked at the 13 highest-yielding funds in the Morningstar 500 as of Jan. 25, 2021, though the table shows yields as of March 8. This is one of those Don t try this at home things. I select the M500 list mostly on Morningstar Analyst Ratings but also include prominent and up-and-coming funds that may be rated Neutral or not rated. So, it s a fairly safe place for this exercise. If you ....

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Buy the Unloved: 2021 Funds Edition


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Last year was a tumultuous one that introduced a lot of volatility and uncertainty into the markets. While unpredictability characterized 2020, Buy the Unloved s tried-and-true approach remained steadfast. Buy the Unloved is a contrarian investment strategy that has done well for more than 25 years by pointing investors toward out-of-favor Morningstar Categories. The original iteration dates to 1994 and will be referred to as Version 1. The original received a slight methodology tweak, creating a second iteration, Version 2, which is detailed in this article.
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