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Ridham Desai: Start of a new profit cycle driving a multi-year bull run: Ridham Desai


You have a target of 100,000 on the Sensex. Any changes to that after the pandemic?
That Sensex target was for 2025. We’re still far away. What we have learnt about the pandemic is that its economic impact is transient. There is no permanent economic damage. There is massive coordination between central banks and governments across geographies. When we walk out of this pandemic, there will be a very sharp bounce in economic growth everywhere in the world.
Markets are at new highs. Is it time to reduce equity exposure?
We are in a multi-year bull market. This market has many more legs before it gets exhausted. The fundamental premise is that we are at the start of a new profit cycle. This comes from a big shift in government policy that started in September 2019. Over the next 3-4 years, companies could compound profits at over 20% per year. We are overweight India in our emerging market model portfolio. There are two risk factors we need to bear in mind. One, the sys ....

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India to outperform emerging markets, bet on cyclicals: Morgan Stanley


Indian equities are likely to outperform their emerging market (EM) peers in 2021, says the latest report by Morgan Stanley and bets on domestic cyclical stocks followed by rate sensitives. The research and broking house, however, has kept its December 2021 target for the S&P BSE Sensex unchanged at 55,000 levels (base case; 50 per cent probability) for now – an upside of around 10 per cent from the current levels.
“Our unchanged BSE Sensex target of 55,000. This level implies that the BSE Sensex would trade at a forward P/E multiple of 17.5x and a trailing P/E of 21.2, ahead of the 25-year average of 19.7x. This premium over the historical average reflects a higher confidence in the medium-term growth cycle in India. We are overweight on India in a global emerging markets (GEMs) context,” wrote Ridham Desai, head of India research and India equity strategist at Morgan Stanley in a coauthored report with Sheela Rathi and Nayant Parekh. ....

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cyclical stocks: Covid 2.0: Ridham Desai says don't jump ship to defensives yet, stay with cyclicals


MUMBAI: Dalal Street veteran and Morgan Stanley’s India equity strategist Ridham Desai believes investors should continue to own domestic cyclical companies instead of jumping ship to defensive sectors, like IT and pharmaceutical because of the second COVID-19 wave.
“We prefer domestic cyclical over defensive sectors as India’s growth cycle is unfolding and the relative case remains in favour of cyclical stocks,” Desai argued in their latest note.
Desai’s impassioned defence of cyclical stocks comes days after another celebrated global equity strategist Christopher Wood of Jefferies cut his weightage for Indian equities in his portfolio, fearing that cyclical stocks had not factored in renewed lockdowns. ....

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