Seeing as its august when most of the Financial Markets go away for a vacation and we thought that it would be the ideal time to take stock and what a year its been for the independence of Central Banks governors have been threatened resigned or been fired by populist leaders the Global Economy is slowing thanks to the own going trade war between the United States and china the International Monetary fund cut its Global Growth outlook saying that missteps on trade and briggs it could hurt any recovery the World Economy will expand by 3. 2 percent this year the fund said that growth rates would be the weakest since 2009 but the funds growth predictions are far more optimistic than those of some independent analysts and sanctions and the threat of sanctions have ratcheted up the tensions in this part of the world the middle east the own going breaks it saga selections that could change both the political and economic landscape and not. Ceasar really for the best so weve got a lot to get through so without further ado lets bring in our panel joining me in the studio is ackbar khan senior director of Asset Management at our eye on investment joining us from one of sally is him in a blanco is the head of Latin America Research at various maple craft and in sydney we have tim harcourt tim is the j w neville fellow in economics at the university of New South Wales and the author of the airport economist and trading places welcome to you all good to have you with us on account of the cost to start with you u. S. Fed chief Jerome Powell has been on the receiving end of some withering attacks from President Trump what do you make of that is the independence of Central Banks under threat i think independence of Central Banks is independence in ny im only you know i think all prime ministers and president s do try and influence them in some current of why President Trumps a lot more blunt than others of course and he made it very happy very clear that he was unhappy with the decision and took to twitter as easy as he always does in a sort of new why of pain president we had that rate cut from the fed a couple of weeks ago to me we expecting anymore well the fed governor. Said he wasnt i mean he said he was just going to tinker. And i guess President Trump was mournful of the. I guess the stance of the European Central bank and also china in cutting rights powell has said who tinker a bit. By sickly reasonably reasonably hawkish compared to other other other Central Bank Governors but he did not rule out possibly cutting again but that didnt seem to be enough to President Trump. Turkeys Central Bank Governor was fired the new one brought in by president did exactly what you want told him to do what do you make of that. And interestingly enough the markets liked all of what was done so there was a lot of fuss about Central Bank Independence it in turkey as weve seen in other countries you mention the us its happened in a host of countries as jim mentioned in easy or india etc etc so theres a lot of fuss when the when when ed had changed the governor they slashed rates as he wanted as trump pointed and since then the lawyers strengthen significantly they just came out recently and lowered their inflation forecast for the year as world the turkish authorities and so the markets actually interestingly enough responding quite well so the market saying that everyone knows more about the economy than the central bank of fact its essentially given in the beginning the green light. Even. Mexicos finance minister quit why well i mean theres theres clearly to come submerging in the Mexican Government one its a pragmatist and one is a more dogmatic one and clearly the right now the dogmatic more populist arm of ministration is gaining strength and so the finance minister clearly you know showed some serious policy disagreements with the government and decided to. Move away from the administration and thats something that you know were now seeing in the economy but we have been seeing in regulatory agencies since the beginning of the administration so its a trend we expect to continue ok so we put his resignation be seen as interference in any way well i mean you know we have been seeing it in latin america not just in mexico and from the you know different opposite ends of the political spectrum so we look at brazil and we look at levies resignation from the Development Bank in brazil earlier this year you know of course that was the reason for that was alleged intervention from president also narrow you know the question of institutional independence more broadly not just Central Banks in latin america its one. Heated debate and Central Banks in the region you could say again in the pendants just you know 2 decades ago. In real terms but for the most part theyve never been fully independent and a lot of political interference remains in most countries with some notable exceptions maybe tina being one of them all right lets talk about one of the years dominating stories that the trade war between the u. S. And china. China is hurting growth is slowing should we be worried well i think we should in the sense that. The last. Number 6. 4 was not what weve been used to in the boom times and so i think there is some impact that the tribe war is hitting between the u. S. And china and also you know asia theres a tried war in 9 between japan and south korea so there is some fear for that and just to pick up. The last point you know in latin america the new Mexican Administration has abolished mexico which is actually the tried promotion i should say here that attracting Foreign Investment and trying. To mexico and given mexico been a member the Pacific Alliance in the Transpacific Partnership thats quite a negative step so i think. Around the world Latin America Asia and the u. S. We are seeing signs of protectionism and economic populism which has has reasons for all of us to fear from the middle east to turkey to argentina. If any one nation should have benefitted from this trade war between the u. S. And china it should have been brazil as a as a brick nation but also nora doesnt exactly have the best of relations with that with president xi to see. Well i mean i think we dont really know yet what the relationship is not because obviously the rhetoric during the Election Campaign was very negative towards china but you know the reality of campaigning and governing her very different and coming to government and president also narrow has to you know take into account that China Remains one of brazils main trading partners and that the export of soft commodities namely soya is dependent on chinese demand and so i think you know the announcement a couple of weeks ago that he will be traveling to china at the end of the year to seek new trade agreements new negotiations does point to a more pragmatic side you know aside from the the rhetoric china rhetoric that he will maintain those relations now how warm or moderate will those be i guess well have to wait and see. This destroyed war a global slowdown depressing demand or oil thats thats not good for this region the middle east in particular a region thats dependent upon oil is it its depressing demand in in general also for oil will that depress demand combined combined with increased supply coming out of the u. S. Shale production obviously compounds the problem which is why russia and opec are having to fight even harder to cut their supply to offset both the higher supply from the u. S. And whats now turning out to be less growth in oil demand so russian opec have their work cut out for them to be further than theyve done a reasonably good job in keeping more oil in the mid sixtys if. You know at the end of last year we were in the low fiftys from an oil price perspective so its the battle continues is opec still relevant because. The nation that were in right now cast are leaving opec this year well opec is relevant because. Producers are all production is focused with in russia and opec countries and now in the u. S. So if 2 thirds of that is in terms of russia and opec are working together to bring down their production of oil and thats obviously helpful for the Global Supply and demand balance ok lets move on to the u. S. Debt ceiling 22. 00 trillion dollars rising whatever happened to republicans fear of a debt of wanting small government thats politics isnt it so the u. S. Has a 110 percent of debt to g. D. P. Now it was in the mid sixtys about 65 percent or so debt to g. D. P. Before the financial crisis 10 years ago 12 years ago so its risen quite markedly is it should we be worried about it is it a problem it is obviously having more debt is a problem but when the country that has more debt is United States and they can just keep printing more money as they have shown a willingness to do over the last decade its less of a problem than if other countries did the same thing printing money is surely sometimes that sometimes the pigeons have to come home to roost you cant keep printing money forever can you you cant but the obviously the Central Banks globally have printed about 12. 00 or 13 trillion dollars since the financial crisis all it does is it pushes the problem further down and from a political perspective thats helpful because it pushes the problem out of the election cycle and and also it is the Central Banks didnt think they had any other choice frankly when they started printing money it was an unprecedented policy approach but they felt they were facing unprecedented times jim should we be worried about debt the new thinking it seems among more than Monetary Policy advocates is that debt no longer matters. I want to strongly we had a bit and deficit scare before the election now the elections over its sort of gone on. As a very low in any case so i think. Provided youve got. A private export process is. In the in the last issue the last question where we talked about brazil and china both the strong and brazil we have some help with stronger Commodity Prices you know struggles had a morning boom with exports to china brazil which had a dawning boom would soybeans and so on so i think if you know a situation where your commodity economy and you can make your interest free points i dont think that is as much an issue as we thought weve sort of gone away from a debt and deficit fetish in a straw idea because its been saying its more political scare campaign than anything of you know grounded in an economic theory. Does debt matter i mean i guess it does for argentina still under its i. M. F. Program what is the state of economy right now. Well i was i was listening you know to the other answers and thinking well if you print money for long enough then you push it into so many electoral cycles then it becomes a structural problem so youre talking about you know that a Monetary Policy no matter what stage you are within a government so i mean of course that matters to argentina and the key question right now is whether the next administration whoever it may be you know will be able to repay dead or needs to restructure the payments schedule with the i. M. F. You know its unrealistic for argentina to face its payments in 20202021 so the question is whos sitting at them the other side of the of the negotiating table from the i. M. F. You know will it be a precedent mark korean a 2nd administration or with will it be about the fernandes and christina kitcheners so you know of course in terms of where the economy is so i would say its in the intensive care unit its currently stable but her prognosis is reserved and it really depends on how the Political Uncertainty of this Election Year pans out and what the actual policy proposals are from whoever takes government in the summer tends to where a lot of people saying this year that capitalism has failed is failing now is it time that perhaps we should look good at doing things a little differently. I was thinking about that within us point you know with that dive bar from a. You know you have an oak. With great Natural Resources and Human Capital it really should be like a stride in and so should brazil given their resource and dam and i think the big mistake with my idea is that as we have opened up our economies weve forgotten about the live a market and social protection in a struggle we had a social democrat government led by the light bob hawke who opened up the economy reduce tariffs my the struggling economy very open in competitive but he did so with very strong scifi nets in terms of a wide accord with the tried unions and pension superannuation and universal health care and i think if you dont look after your social safety net as you open your economy you do end up with an economic populism approach and i think the reason the president was popular wasnt that tried was damaging the American Economy it was the fact that the minimum why should being frozen and that you know it starts of being do unionized i think youve if you look after you like the market institutions at home then i think youre more likely to get a more successful competitive economy. Is it time that we do things a little differently is capitalism dead. I dont think capitalism is dead i think none of the systems are perfect they all have flaws but taken to an extreme none of them work very well communism taken to an extreme was a disaster think up it wasnt taken to an extreme clearly its flaws are evident theres a huge inequality of wealth i think in the United States the top 0 point one percent of the population has the same wealth as the bottom 90 its an extraordinary statistic. That level of inequality is just a function of continued gap in the success of capitalism so there has to be some checks and balances probably so that you do not end up with reactions where the vast majority of your population is not benefiting from Economic Growth and its going to a smaller and smaller proportion of people who act interestingly enough pay less and less tax because theyre rich enough to avoid tax someone who is doing things differently is mexicos new president a fight him really frustrating hes giving up his private jet his personal security guards hes opened up the president ial palace he drives around in a v. W. He didnt go to the g. 20 what are we to make of him and his his leadership style is this all. I dont know appear stunned is there any substance to this well i think theres a degree of substance but then theres also a degree of continuity with the you know political culture of the left in the ping tide i think you know in some in some ways you can argue mexico arrived to the party a few years too late. In terms of the type of leadership that is seeking and what we saw earlier with more heat in europe why for example and and i think you know with saving the distance of the size of the 2 economies you can compare them in terms of their style the key the key risk we see with mexico is the like of certainty in terms of policy. And the lack of clarity in terms of how different policies were together so for example when we you know when we look at the number of announcements that the press and make here in the campaign as he took government in terms of social spending you know a lot of the policies have worked in other countries but the key question is how can you afford those policies sustainable sustainably over a 6 year period without increasing your debt your debt to g. D. P. Ratio and when you have you know major questions about the sustainability of your largest company. When youre being downgraded and so the the main problem is not necessarily what hamlet is proposing to do but actually we are uncertain about how hes going to finance those proposals and thats where the issue of sustainability and comparing to you know populism out what happened in in argentina and in brazil you know in the last decade comes into play because you know you dont want to be looking at a mexico 10 years down the line that is struggling with you know how your levels of debt inflation you know money printing as a way of financing those social programs programs mexico is one where its still got a positive outlook for 2019 but we have to watch it but what are your thoughts on on mexico it has. This is this enviable position with a massive market to the north its a Manufacturing Base for the u. S. Companies huge oil reserves its part of the g 20 and yet it still has difficulty translating all of that into into poverty reduction. I think youre right i mean archie think you know the president. Should use Triton Investment to grow the economy and to be able to have therefore the resources to provide for the poor i think abolishing probably mexico not kind of the g 20 i think ultimately that undermines mexicos position and capacity to help the poorest of the poor are just in mexico as part of the 6 part they put economist series actually for a strike in television and what i noticed is that mexico has very good free tried logistics and transport links with the eyes of pacific and with the Pacific Alliance with chile and colombia and peru had a lot of things going for it not just the the border nor think the the overwhelming Media Attention on. Immigration with the United States and the crime problems along the border actually undermines the very strong fundamentals of mexican industry a lot of the a lot of the mexican manufacturers have very strong links with the state of victoria here in australia so i think theres actually a good story for mexico but i actually think they should use try to innovate spent the Transpacific Partnership the g 20 to drive better growth so they can pay their their social programs that are important to the left and important for social stability ok were heading towards the end of the program just some final thoughts before we do conclude. Argentinas forthcoming elections what are your thoughts the race is pretty tight. Yeah the price is that the race is extremely tight we see it as a 2. 00 horse race the polls are showing that you know by chris benefiting from a Stable Exchange rate with the dollar inflation is coming down its still very high by International Standards but its still good news salary cells that are still below inflation so theyre not catching up but the purchasing power is recovering from what was a very very volatile 2018 with a major devaluation of the past so so you know and lest we see some some extreme changes between now and october i would expect 2 for there to be a 2nd round runoff to decide who will be the next president and as we get closer to the election if the economy remains stable i think its still precedent mccree who has the upper hand as the incumbent to get reelected and our final thoughts on turkey is that as the biggest regional economy. And and the region as a whole how will. We know with the Saudi Arabian economy in particular slowing. So the so the the gulf region and turkey i think the similarities if you like that they have is that they dont ask economies are hurting for for perhaps differing reasons but theyre hurting but whats bailing them all out at a time when its governments are finding it difficult to balance their budgets and theyre having to to to be more conservative about spending is the we were talking about fed policy and Interest Rates as u. S. Interest rates come down. Global investors go elsewhere and look for yield and look for returns and one of the things that the gulf and he has benefited from very significantly in the last couple of years is that their cost of borrowing keeps falling more and more which makes it easier and cheaper and more affordable to be able to finance their deficits at a time when the economy is struggling so if wed had the same Economic Situation in turkey in this region when Interest Rates were 5 or 6 percent higher that would have been a very different situation so they are being bailed out by what looks to be lower for longer if you like the global Interest Rates they are obviously measures in place across the region to try and improve the domestic situation but governments are constrained because theyre not necessarily able to. Get as much income as they would like because the Global Economy is slowing and the out the the demand for that output whether it be oil or the goods that he produces is softening and is the u. S. China trade war going to be resolved anytime soon is china going to have to stipulate to to to save its economy or sit out of the china cat on the side what used to you know when i 1st went to china 20 years ago i said you know do you have Workers Compensation in china in the factory manager would side or the neither of the workers pretty thing that i have to compensate us you know when i had a huge reserve army of leibert never got live or shortages and thought like the markets and wall of china so they wont be able to stimulate the economy in the sign why i think the whole worlds going to. Suffer in some wise from. Incapacity of stimulus in the sun why that it worked during the Global Financial crisis and in 2000 and i dont think thats why theres been pressure on Central Banks to. Rights but now theres only so much that can do this sort of if you like pushing on a string. And that we must end our discussion its been great to have you with us many thanks indeed blanco in a point to. Sit there with me here in doha. Show for this week if youd like to comment on anything that weve discussed here today you could tweet me im at a finnigan on twitter please use the hash tag a j c t c when you do or you can drop us a line counting the cost at aljazeera dot that is our email address as always theres plenty more if you online at aljazeera dot com slash c. T. C. That takes you straight to a page and theyll find individual reports links even a time episodes feed to catch up. But thats it for this edition of counts of the cost im adrian for the game from the whole team here in doha thanks for being with us the news on aljazeera is next. Think of some of the Biggest Companies in the world today all of them big tech with algorithms and the more that we used to want out of we produce were in the midst of a great race for dot and Big Tech Companies around the chase empires are rising on a wealth of recrimination and we have a commodity in the 2nd of a 5 part series ali ray examines whether corporations are colonizing. Like the popularity and power of big track on a just. Peace at all beyond the top stories on aljazeera the iranian president Hassan Rouhani says the u. S. Must lift all sanctions on tehran to pave the way for the go see a sions earlier rouhani expressed willingness to meet President Donald Trump if it would help iran and speaking on the final day of the g. 7 summit trump appeared optimistic about the idea of moving the relationship forward Natascha Butler has more from be a ritz. The prospect of a meeting between the u. S. New reigning president s was not im not making the outcome of the g. 7 in berates but is the summit came to an end its the french president suggested talks between donald trump and Hassan Rouhani were possible. Modern day at some point there has to be a meeting between the iranian president and the us president i hope that in the next few weeks this meeting will take place france plays a role along with the other partners who signed the iran deal trump who pulled the u. S. Out of the 2015 Iran Nuclear Deal lossie and impose sanctions said he was open to diplomacy were looking for Nuclear Weapons globalist dick missiles and a longer period of time versus we can have it done in a very short period of time and i really believe that iran can be a great nation id like to see that happen the development came one day after the unexpected arrival of the Iranian Foreign minister in berates jeffard saif was invited by the french president whod been asked by some g 7 leaders to mediate