This election will be a little closer to the mainland will continue to resist beijings push the unification taiwans trying to trying to get in. On just iran. Hello im Adrian Finnigan and this is counting the cost of aljazeera a weekly look at the world of business and economics this week 2020 we pick through what could be the hot geo political and geo economic topics of the year from the most important election in the free world will President Trump win another term and what does that mean for trade wars and dispute could the world come together to tackle Global Warming and globalization and will we see more people on the streets and it can see that wealth is unequally spread across society. The International Monetary funds new managing director chris to lead out hell give a has described the Global Outlook as precarious trade tensions could cut Global Economic growth by north point 8 percent or 700000000000. 00 now thats roughly the size of the swiss economy central bankers have been pretty clear that any slowdown this year would require governments to step in with stimulus packages why well because Monetary Policy that is Interest Rates and quantitative easing is that the limits of what can be achieved and there are so many variables the u. S. Election a lack of leadership as the United States steps back on the world stage and Climate Change and if 2019 is anything to go by well see more protests over a sterile of the economic model that has led to wage growth stagnation over the last few decades. Weve got together a panel of experts to cost over the year ahead and to give us some insights as to what to expect joining us here. In doha i park on whos senior director of Asset Management to our right investment bank. Condo whos the residence professor at Northwestern University at castle and alas in america analyst and from london joining us is charles heck a chose is a sydney apart the at control risks gentlemen welcome to you all charles lets begin with you the u. S. Election of course is going to be keenly watched thats an understatement weve had a president but show little regard for the liberal world order attacking allies the World Trade Organization hes demoted the the reassuring of industry whichever way you look at it how is that going to change the way the world works in 2020 if youre absolutely right people are going to be watching the u. S. Campaign more closely than ever and its probably one of the more important president ial campaigns in recent memory and before we even know the final candid it pairing the very fact that theres a president ial campaign in United States next year runs the risk of changing geopolitics a little bit there are a few things that were watching particularly carefully number one of course is the relationship between the United States and china the u. S. Economy is fragile and facing a bit of a slowdown and you think that that might force the president s hand to sign some sort of at least preliminary trade deal with china the risk there though is that the deal could be superficial and wont hold up to scrutiny if the president doesnt sign a trade deal with china and the trade conflict escalates of that presents another set of both economic and Political Risk and the other thing that the president has to be careful about in the coming year is that everyone understands that during a campaign the appetite for military conflict is incredibly low and that may encourage some other actors to take a. Action around the world and and understand that the United States may not respond so were looking at north korea what if north korea starts its missile Testing Program again and sort of pushes the geo political envoy lope a little bit knowing that theres not that much the president may be able to do in a Campaign Season same thing in iran and perhaps iran may consider some sort of tactical military activity in the gulf of with the understanding that the United States will have its hands tied in terms of how strongly it can respond militarily during the Campaign Season. For most of 2019 there was tension in the middle east when it isnt there but it seemed to be much higher this year it ratcheted up throughout the year then we had those attacks on the Oil Facilities in saudi arabia and suddenly. Everythings much quieter so globally when you have nations that have had disputes with each other. Resolutions which are sustainable are generally those which involve which which where the the solution actually comes from the players involved there are some cases where external help or arbitration can provide a solution but those are generally the exceptions so if the players involved in a dispute are the ones that are finding a resolution and are finding their way through whatever disputes they have thats probably a point to a more meaningful and more sustainable solution are you talking about the gulf crisis in particular here with the blockading of cancer or are you talking about that the region in general you know you can talk about the gulf crisis you can talk about issues of the iran. So i think i think if the players in the region who have more to gain or lose depending on which directions things go in if theyre the ones in control of the conversation you probably have a more sustainable solution so they dont need trump were going to have to a certain extent hes the sidelight is hes out of hes out of their calculations. I think you can no country can ever have the largest country in the most powerful country in the world out of the calculations but i think if youre trying to negotiate and find a solution between your neighbors its probably helpful if youre talking to each other directly then into an intermediary and thats whats happening as far as the blockade of cancer is concerned as well in that seems to be some sort of for we have of course the the gulf cup the football tournament here in cast on all of the blockading nations participated and then that seemed to go pretty well it did i mean to incent since june 17th when the blockade began that probably the most significant step where you had a final. In the where saudi in bahrain were playing and thats thats pretty newsworthy just by itself so you know clearly thats an interesting and positive development but i think for there to be movement on the blockade weve had several false dawns before i think all the countries which are against qatar need to be united in seeking in wanting to move forward so thats important it doesnt seem to be the case at the moment or of the trumpet ministrations through its weight behind the opposition in venezuela in 2019 what can we expect in 2020 well 1st that. I think that things will continue the same for a while so we can wait for a serious or far move in terms of mail seizure rather than pushing the for regime change so i think thats going to take longer that the u. S. Administration really thought in fact the economists unit the Intelligence Unit changes forecasts from mother losing power to mother are staying in power and i think thats going to be true for the next few months at least but i think women are in the context of latin america is in terms of comics and politics is rather relevant now were talking about there the 3 Major Economies which are mexico or brazil. In argentina are facing very difficult a very difficult challenge 1st of all those economies which failed in the past 20 years to reform really to restructure really are still very dependent on commodities and in the face of a fragile International Economy this fragility is going to start showing up the economy that you prize has not really move and in many cases come of the key ones have fallen down for example cooper that affects a lot of chile chile on the other hand which was the really the engine of growth for Latino America is now facing huge economic political true moyles which means that the forecast for growth of chile is dire saw Latino America is. In a crossroad at the moment you know has a new left wing press in from on this right. In front this is want to have the room of maneuver their nest or christmas had theres nobody now like child was dead and its time in his time to buy the bonds from chile they are from argentina they have huge debt and they will probably have to go to the i. M. F. Again and this is going to be very unpopular because that goes against all the promises he made to accompany him in brazil and also not has failed to reduce significant the deficit and is facing huge problems with the pension and thats not moving either and hes starting to see his base to erode so that with their big challenges ahead for latin america. There are you know you dont paint a very rosy picture lets go back to the london and charles 2019 as we saw street protests around the world we were talking about what was happening in chile and elsewhere in latin america its hard to think of a time. The has been such universal outrage at the political classes of a Climate Change of inequality over Wealth Distribution how is that going to play out in 2020. 8 i mean i think you have to cast your mind probably all the way back to the 1960. Yes to see a time when almost the entire world was convulsed with social unrest driven by a sort of social and economic and political causes and while all of the social unrest weve seen around the world this year has had different triggers most of the underlying themes are exactly that as you pointed out its Climate Change its income inequality its creeping authoritarianism around the world and all kinds of social and political challenges. For 2020 v. Risks are are several 1st that this will continue and will worsen and then we also think for companies we think that theres a chance that theres going to be a certain amount of contagion and that these issues will move primarily out of the political arena most of these activities have been aimed at governments but there is a risk in 2020 that this sort of social unrest and civil unrest will be aimed in the commercial sphere and that companies are going to have to get on top of their games and ahead of the issues when it comes to. Slowing or acknowledging or dealing with Climate Control or in lets say gender representation on boards of directors or indeed in how they compensate their most Senior Executives and their most junior executives but companies are being forced to take stances on issues like gun control and so d we think that theres a serious. Possibility that companies will become political actors in these fears and 2020 as well its fascinating its sounds also expensive is that going to affect the bottom line and how does that sort of change if you like in in it as youd in direction go down with with shareholders. You know youre right theres always a bit of a tradeoff and calculations that ideally need to be made in advance about what the costs of understanding Political Trends and social trends are and i think i would argue that the costs of the misunderstanding were misread. You can catch the rest of that episode of counting the cost to down to 0 dot com right now were taking you to tehran the terror hunt Dialogue Forum where irans foreign minister mohammad job as the reef is speaking do not. Think international laws. This is the same. Attitude of. New. Levels of attacking. The brini and his dream which is a shared history in head to teach to the whole world. To have command of some still a money was a freedom seeker of the region. Well has been targeted by. The us and by his image in the allies. Which all should who have been now facing multilayered problems in the region. The incident that took. The incident that took place in this month it is not an attack on iraq. And assassination of the great commander in his comfort and but it was. Targeting. An element of preserving security in the geography. Who was confronting that too. And should never. Those groups. Created by us are actually supported by us in their allies. And. They. Had considered the greatest enemy in the great commander slim and he and it is not. It is not range that disrespectful president of United States and the his disrespectful foreign secretary. Have committed. A mistake. So. You have assassinated the greatest commander who was defending. They have made a great mistake they should remember the promise of god. We will prevail in that. The right tone once will succeed the great great honorable guests living gentlemen one of the major press problems that day is faced by region. Is our misperceptions. That are. That are. Affecting this region id like to. Emphasize that miscalculation. Is one of the most important. That in mind. That john eliminates of the current problems in every region and there will be even. The us regime have. Loved it. Did lead that. By miscalculating and misperceiving. Took steps. In securing the world. And in fact for. Their own country and their nation. The islamic world and participation. In the participation of people in iraq in iran. And fear of. The and this is in their come but then to. Have proved a miscalculation of us towards iran and the region lets focus on the figure. Of the us in the region has in korea by. 8 trillion dollars. It is apart from the house. But in the center. That have been lost in theres a lot of their miscalculations. It is obvious to everyone that most of the u. S. President s and this time trump for the very minor little. And for their own mind said they have. Shared the bloods around the world unfortunately today. By the we are witnessing historical lies that the United States. With all these killings are pursuing peace and security in the region of a region. Because of the. Oil ations of United States in the recent. Much. Has been turned. To extremism. Because of the this approach the. Law. Was considered as an extension in the internet and relation unfortunately it has been. And into a rule a bad drool in our region. This is a disabled circle. Yes. Needs to be defeated by the peace seekers and defenders. On the rebel against unfortunately. This miscalculation and misperception is not unlimited to the you is but so. It also extended to the allies because. Who see security and peace from the externals. Is leading to this situation. That is that has led to the situation which is threatening this region from. The other time. Unfortunately these problems. Have facilitated the situation for foreign troops. Because of. You know much because of. That they have facilitated their illegitimate and illegal part for the evident in the region. Is cause link problems so far. In a look countries including afghanistan palestine yemen and insert. The other side of these destructive politics. Is. Selling off billions of dollars of. The region. John which is equivalent to the. Size of the whole world the situation we are witnessing in the region. From the ridge in the negotiation. To the absence of. The nation. Is the reality of todays situation in the region which is not suitable for. All of us. It. May be perceived that the region is facing. Problems. Being foreign minister of Islamic Republic of iran. Us that the solution for these problems even though is not. Very clear but is possible in order to make this possible. Is. Possible for the paradigm change in the region. Change. On top of bravery needs a collective effort. Which is imposed on this region and movingly or unknowingly. Or reproduced in the region by the. You are miss perceived by some in the region that the us and their arms are bringing peace to the end of the security to the region in my opinion. Which is possible in the middle east and central asia or in the. In the horror myth is. That iraq is joined collaboration and understanding and cooperation in the region. Foundation of every movement in this region. Can initiate from. Understanding and requires negotiation. What we in our region needs. Is a comprehensive. Negotiation dialogue in the region which means that iran. So. Far as is pursuing this in the u. In framework. Initiated by the Islamic Republic of iran. Is known as hermas. In the region this initiative. Is based on the realities regional reality is. And and new. Roads without threats. Is not only possible but also require that all of us in the region should pursue. This is the same logic. That those who pursue. Their objectives in the war. And who have tried with their best by as i said a thing of our great command ladies and gentlemen. The approach adopted by you is for themselves and in the region is an approach of instability war and bloodshed. But iran. Act. As a unified voice from this land. Is a voice of peace and peace for its neighbors in the region. And. So. To. Draw off from the region. Who are using. Wars and sanctions. They will receive. At the. Time and the location that they deserve it is important being the foreign minister i have to declare to the world that iran is pursuing the Peace Security and development in the region based on cooperation in the regional in the region of its regional country is the Islamic Republic of iran is