How interesting or. An unprecedented human catastrophe the battle for italy the Syrian Government is adamant it will retake the last rebel held area but with turkey and russia how will this fight play out across the region and why does it living matter this is inside story. Hello and welcome to the program im peter dobby babies and children are dying of cold in syria is it live and this suffering has been described by the u. N. As the biggest humanitarian a horror story of the 21st century it says nearly 900000 civilians have left since the beginning of december the Syrian Government offensive to capture it has created the biggest single civilian displacement jury in the 9 year conflict despite that the syrian president has announced to press on with the operation it libya is the last remaining rebel stronghold and the only deescalation zone that remains out of his control Syrian Regime forces are making advances on the ground and that pushes put more pressure on those being displaced turkey back some of the rebels in the province and isnt allowing Syrian Refugees to cross its border saying it cant handle the influx in and id be fully understand if this liberation does not mean the end of the war or the end of plots or terrorism either this liberation does not mean the enemys will surrender this liberation means that we put our enemies pride and nose in the dirt as a primary step to defeat them completely sooner or later and now in a statement on monday the uns undersecretary general for humanitarian affairs mark local said this were now receiving reports that settlements for displaced people are being hit resulting in deaths injuries and further display. The biggest humanitarian horror story of the 21st century will only be avoided if u. N. Security Council Members and those with influence overcome individual interests and put a collective stake in humanity 1st the only option he said is a cease fire. I ok there we are here we go lets bring in our guests today here on inside story joining us from istanbul. Managing editor of the daily southern newspaper from beirut Mohammed Taj Ali fellow and director of communications at the Carnegie Middle East Center and joining us from moscow Pavel Felgenhauer is a defense analyst and columnist at the no via gazette a newspaper gentlemen welcome to you all that coming to you 1st out of istanbul weve reached a quote new horrifying level in this crisis where does the turkish government think this is heading well i think it has already it already has had it to a point where it shouldnt have had reached and that is a humanitarian catastrophe and turkey has been vocal about this humanitarian concern since the beginning with regards to adlib where it is heading i think. It will depend on turkey and russia negotiations with regards to how far is a sad how far will assad be let and what will be allowed with regards to it live n. N. Abiding the Sochi Aniston equipments. And particularly with regard to turkish Observation Points in deescalation zone and and also i mean it let alone this relationship with about the Observation Point posts but i mean how far is assad turkey a story in turkey or the International Community will allow assad to go ahead with this humanitarian catastrophe i think it turkey has made very clear with regards to its military steps that it is willing to take. In it live and it has this it has announced that is given assad time until the end of february if the Observation Points hosts are not cleared by then i think and if an agreement has been reached with russia then i think the military actions and hard steps will be inevitable against assad so d you know whether the russia will will be able to control or what is willing to make a compromise with regards to protecting this or to deal. Articles will be determining whether or not turkey will push forward for that military action but he has made it very clear not just in rhetoric but it also in deployment of military its military to to the deescalate to the to the northern syrian areas close to italy and how it is how much power it is willing to intervene in fight against assad i think that will be. Available by the end of this month ok mohammed ali in beirut do you agree with that analysis that theres got to be a hard response against Bashar Al Assad to do with it live if only because according to the u. N. And i quote the violence is now indiscriminate so in that sense it seems to be a scorched earth policy. And this has been assads policy since the very beginning of the conflict the scorched earth policy has been exactly what he has done in aleppo before and also on hamas this is you know this is the assad regime modus operandi along with its allies russia and iran and syria i think the you know turkey definitely faces a an existential question regards to the humanitarian crisis when the if if assads forces supported by russia continue to advance we will see even a worse humanitarian catastrophe another refugee crisis which i dont think turkey is capable of handling and i think you know this will have to precautions on the International Community specifically europe which had a deal with turkey a while ago on managing the refugee crisis i think the next phase is also about maintaining the turkish washing relations i mean russia has invested quite a lot and its leverage against turkey now. Trade relations have peaked the Nuclear Investment and the russias role in the building of Turkish Nuclear reactors the turks stream gas pipeline theres also another massive Economic Investment and the question is did russia consciously build up all of these leverage as all of this all of these economic steps and the past few years since 2015 incident consciously built built up this leverage against turkey so that when they reached aspirant but you know russia will be better positioned because it seems now that its a one way concern turkey is concerned about as Federation Ship with russia and its you know theres the same huge patience that were seeing on the undertaker side waiting until the end of the month i dont think you know they can they can. For the other 10 days of. Advances against ok its catastrophic for them so the question is whether washer consciously built this leverage against the turkish side knowing that they will reach this point in which they can you know the they will be helpless as they advance against their positions and. In moscow presumably with good cause turkey is very alarmed looking in on 900000. 00 people and the price that they are paying if turkey wants to go further than its gone how will that go with mr lavrov. Well rough is of course the Russian Foreign minister but hes not the ultimate Decision Maker in this situation the russian president of course i didnt report in is the main architect of the Russian Foreign policy shes very much involved in whopper of a sort of his quirk and also the Russian Military are involved in this particular situation the assad regime wants to end the civil war by kind of clans ing out the last remaining. The socalled the convictions own and also maybe pushing a large number of regime opponents for out of syria and actually shifting the ethnic and religious balance in the country which was always their idea of course this is not what fortune is really interested then about the Russian Military have their own agenda to some extent they also want and then did a civil war in syria and they want to be more involved in other things that actually reward them to syria way standing off against nato in the Eastern Mediterranean ok but surely going to get interesting especially on a 2nd and the 2nd if im on the press would you accept that mr lavrov however yes ok he doesnt call the shots that get into mr putin but mr lavrov does shape Foreign Policy he has shaped whats going on in a stana as well i mean if only because hes now on record as saying attacks on russian bases cannot be tolerated what does that mean. Well that means that the russian basins mamie a minister a Strategic Asset its not the in about syria its about the russian men and they have both a presence in the Eastern Mediterranean its the air cover for the russian presence theres also of course Russian Naval base in tartus on the economy in base is too close to the libs own there have been some kind of not very effective but still attacks using homemade drones against that base some of these attacks some you time ago were successful the Russian Military say that they have to have this base fully secure the opposition should be questions that and whatever office throwing that message which with which the kremlin of course concurs though the present situation when turkey and russian are collision course or i would say drifting towards a coast slowly towards coalition is not really what mr puts in as the architect of Russian Foreign policy really wants one thing there one case lets go back to make michel in istanbul if we go back 18 months that we were talking about deescalation zones on this channel on this program indeed as well deescalation zones can i suggest you they clearly do not work because you cant police them you cant guarantee that people whether theyve been to a stand whether theyve been to geneva one to 5 will not doesnt matter they dont do what they say they will do when it comes to those deescalation zones and after 18 months ago we saw hundreds of people losing their lives well i mean it is true they they work better on paper than on and practice but i think it has a lot to do with the motivations and genuine it seriously over the parties that are that are signing these agreements you know if we look at these yes collations alls for example or the Observation Points with sochi deal or in general with the cease fires that were agreed recently. It lib we see that ok on paper they agree on something that and mainly this is the motivation behind these agreements of in humanitarian and civilian concerns but then we see that you know in the name of fighting against terror hospitals are being bombed children and women are being killed like the previous speaker said there is a sort of demographic changes being implemented ethnic and religious change demographics are changed and millions of people are being displaced so their motivations are not necessarily matching these. Agreements that are signed on paper the escalations on in its life and its the in theory i think it would have been successful if assad didnt continue its attack on it for example in the name of fighting against some terrorist groups that turkey and russia agreed on calling them terrorists they bombed children they bomb civilians day bomb hospitals and other communities spaces. Instead of fighting against terrorists fighting is terrorism and i think this also delisted to my eyes is these efforts for a political transition between Turkey Russia and iran but now do we do we say that ok just because it didnt work now turkey should push forward for a harder military im going to push you there as well if i make so i want to come to boil that down and take that point to mohammed ali in beirut mohammed at the end of last year people were saying the conflict in syria is entering its endgame but was being said by various analysts what about mid to late december can we still say that. Definitely not i mean you have on the military side of course the regime is advancing against you know turkey back positions and an adlib and other regions but at the same time you know you still have the u. S. Protected zone and also you have the Economic Situation which is deteriorating are a singular some forms of protest here and there and so it seems that the contentious of texas areas as still alive and will continue given the regimes failure and mourning its own of and so you know continuing the old the same old policies of authoritarianism and repression on the ground but you know at the same time just to go back to the you know the regional politics in all of this and while turkey is patient in and handling this of given the extent of russian turkish relations it seems that. This deadline is quite real and i think the next phase will see some form of skill asian. Given the repercussions if assad of the assad regime installed and keep these regions and if. F. Russia out lets say for instance and thats another scenario which might also come if russia does not allow turkey or agrees of turkey on some sort of a an attack on kurdish held positions. You know to the to the east if if turkey expands its protected zone westward towards kurdish position after an agreement with russia and perhaps of the United States this will allow. You know the gun to present as are some some sort of quid pro quo. Kind of agreement you know a give and take agreement like like the ones that happened in. Us theyre always there swap battlefields and you know in return for expanding the turkish zone. And the turkish plans ok you know returning refugees into that zone ok powerful in moscow on that idea of Bashar Al Assad being allowed to run his own affairs seems to me that as far as it is concerned moscow doesnt want to relinquish its undoubtedly big amounts of leverage that it has with damascus but on the other hand it doesnt want to use that leverage with damascus why not. Well. First of all. The acid regime has a degree of autonomy. Its not just russian backed its also very much uring in backed and iran is providing actually more support most likely if you can take than that way to say and the money in money terms and in the in the number of forces on the ground the. Lead in organized shia militias. They have their own weve ridges theyre not kind of direct. Assad is not a direct. Vassal of moscow and the moscow has its own agenda which is kind of more global or twist more region on its more aimed not into syria but out of syria into the mediterranean where of course theres other things theres the libyan situation and theres just the hot reports coming in there hoft are announcing that they sunk a turkish ship apparently with turkey with arms supplies coming to tripoli and there in the libya there also the russians and the turks are seem to be supporting opposing sides and this is also going to be part of the possible negotiations that right now are happening in moscow of course on the level of just Deputy Foreign ministers heading the delegations but as the kremlin said if theres going to be some kind of quid pro quo breakthrough apparent there could be a quickly organized summit maybe another one and such in between there the gun and putin to try and make some kind of quid pro quo involving syria possibly involving libya and 5 valving. If all the other out tentative is a coalition between the powers which no one really wants but its not easy to avert. Mohammed ali in beirut is it lip significant just to go back to basics for a 2nd is it lip significant because it was the most vociferous vessel of hatred of the passion al assad regime. I mean yes adlib was was part of the 1980 s. Apprise uprising against the assad regime and yes that level was one of the centers of the uprising against the assad regime but having you know having said that i would say you know its important now regionally because of the refugee crisis you have refugees living in and the refugees from other regions which were pushed also by the assad regime advance and they have there now and then lebanon you know definitely this will have consequences on the on the turkish side just you know just a small remark about the libya conflict and its relationship to syria its its its quite symbolic that now on alongside have thought there are protegee militias pro assad regime militias fighting syrians fighting and in our long side have those regime and also on the other side on the Turkish Backed side art artist backed rebels who are moved from syria into the libyan battlefield syrians are fighting each other not only in syria but also libya on you know using through these 2 powers which have quite some leverage on on who fights what and for what reason and for advancing their own interests in these 2 countries. As you said symbolic and i think you know if adlib is lost this will have quite a huge significance ok who won the syrian conflict messmate check in istanbul on that idea of who won the syrian conflict or who has yet to what when the syrian conflict in inverted commas Bashar Al Assad is saying he will be victorious do you get the sense. That syria and turkey are prepared to go to war over syria or over it lead. I think the public sentiment and i mean even if we were to put it on in the government aside there is a huge public sentiment against bashar assad and what russia is doing and i think that sentiment combined with the atrocities happening in combine with the wave of a new big wave of refugees i think theres a willingness to even push for that to stop that particular wave of refugees coming into syria so this this by this nationalistic or this military istic tone in the against aside from coming from the government there is also a public sentiment that supports that and thats also interesting for the turkish public when it comes to syrian conflict i think it has turned into an existential. Place for turkish intervention into syria or turkeys operations syria because i mean what will come after assad. You know claims victory an adlib and it take takes control of it will he be stopping there all or the next target will be now then the northern syrian areas under the control of the moderate opposition backed by turkey there is all these things that need to be considered to analyze why turkey is also pushing for a deescalation in. Moscow coming back to you for a 2nd does whats going on in italy brighten negate the need for a compromise from 2 points point number one from purely from a military stance but point number 2 as well russia has to pressure damascus to pull a plug on what its doing otherwise reconstruction aid will not come through so therefore if damascus doesnt react well to any potential russian pressure why wouldnt syria and turkey go to war over it lip. Well syria and turkey going to war per se that wont be much of a war because this is whats left of the Syrian Arab Army is no match for the turkish army so the real equation is turkey and russia theres no real appetite in both sides to go in a head on collision but finding a compromise is also very tricky where you can do a kind of fear or rise Something Like say the assad forces partially withdrawing replaced by Russian Military police instead which would leave the 5 and them for highways from what talk it through aleppo and from the mosque open for traffic but still be outside forces will step back from the main refugee camps something can be kind of put together but will that compromise be reached and more importantly there were compromises reached before but they didnt think they didnt hold they held maybe for some a short time but then again there was this swot advance of pro Regime Forces so is there a compromise at all available and will it hold or theres going to be some kind of 1st deep crisis between moscow and on khurana which and then theyre going to find a solution afterwards after the dust settles right now its very hard to guess and with that thats the end of inside story for another day thanks to all our guests mohammed hot jolly and puddle felgenhauer and thank you too for watching you can see the show again any time by going to our website aljazeera dot com and for further discussion check out our Facebook Page thats facebook dot com forward slash inside story you can also talk to us on twitter at a. J. Inside story online payment peter dont be one for me peter told me and everyone on the team here in doha thanks for watching see you soon. I cannot lock my phone with my face you can access your bank account with your voice unique algorithmic measurements of us that are revolutionizing the process of identification but biometrics are far from perfect convenience and feeling infallibility comes at a costs most crucially our privacy. On the 4th of a far far series island radio addresses the appropriation of our most personal characteristics all hail the algorithm on a 0. Trouble began at the end of the countrys civil war when most people started returning home from refugee camps. Who are strapped and killed during a demonstration in 2017 is buried right here in the middle of the street as a sign of resistance to the Mining Companies and government are setting your. 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