Irans general election deals a blow to the religious establishment the conservatives did win the vote but the turnout was the lowest in 4 decades so how will to round deal with what seems to be growing public discontent this is inside story. Our welcome to the program im Adrian Finnegan hardliners are set for sweeping gains in irans parliamentary elections but they appear to have less Popular Support voter turnout in fridays polls was the lowest since the Islamic Revolution in 1979 thats despite the Supreme Leader urging people to cast their ballots as a religious judy to show resistance in the face of u. S. Sanctions now conservatives are expected to have the upper hand in parliament and reformists could push for greater engagement with the west have been weakened some say many iranians are on happy with their government and felt discouraged from voting with more than 7000 potential candidates disqualified voters options were limited anyway but irans interior minister says that all the circumstances including the coronavirus was a blame for the lower turnout. That shadow. We held these elections when there was several incidents in the country where you had bad weather there was this coronavirus disease there was the plane crash also the events of january and november in such a situation the turnout right seems perfectly acceptable for us. More from 00. 0 the conservative candidates have had a souping victory in the parliamentary elections they have got 201000 seats out of 290 in the Upcoming Parliament when they take session in may the conservatives have seen have a very strong support mainly because the voter turnout has been very low its one of the lowest in irans history since the revolution of 1979 in terror on alone there were about 26 percent voter turnout and nationwide that figure was up around 42 percent that is the lowest that has ever taken place in a parliamentary election in iran many people we spoke to said that they were not going to vote because they were not satisfied that their reformist candidates were disqualified for justified reasons also that the m. P. s once they get into power that they dont do what they were supposed to do what they promise this is a disillusionment and many people we spoke to felt it was present and that is why there was such a low turnout in this election what this all means for the future of this country me it means that they there is a trend that were seeing that this conservative movement is gaining power and that the remainder of term of Hassan Rouhani will be one with very little power when it comes to dealing with parliament and passing legislation for the time being we will see this Parliament Come into session in a few months until then the president has his work cut out for him and hes going to have a lot of opposition in this new parliament and that means that any kind of negotiation with the west including the United States would very like unlikely when it comes to trying to secure a new nuclear deal and trying to get iran back into the community and its economic markets open again. For insight story. All right lets bring in our guests for todays discussion from tehran were joined by the stuff a question who is editor in chief of the news agency from london our own merits who is an iran analyst and former terran correspondent for the economist and here and we have let you director of the Gulf Studies Center at Cal University gentlemen welcome to you all the stuff a question lets start with you whats your interpretation of this election of the low turnout in particular it was an engineer victory for the conservatives wasnt it helen thanks for having me and no i do not agree with you it was not engineered as a matter of fact leaders of the reformist camp have been saying people like leaders of the middle you run the Reformist Party people like mr which ani who is the leader of the mother with kim party card was ourselves on the theyve been stressing that the fact theyre behind their last has been their poor record and performance in power all throughout the last several years has also got a 2nd acknowledge your staff i think youre going to have a 2nd theres of reformist parties must have had to say and i just want to make the point before you expand upon that how could this have been anything but engineered when so many reformists were barred from standing in the 1st place. Anaemic exactly explain the same point you know im telling you the words in the coats of these reforms leaders of reforms parties they say that like the leaders of the iranian Reformist Party they have been saying through the media that there is been a sufficient range of tastes for anyone who wants to cast a vote that is to say they were present on the scene i mean the reformists were present thats what they themselves say and it seems that before the election they were emphasizing gun disqualifications in order to hide their defeat but some of the camp you know they came out to tell the truth that there were reformists present on the scene also a poll conducted by east palm Polling Center said that from all those people who who didnt appear at the polls only 3 percent of them believe that they shouldnt take part in the election because they didnt have a candidate so for 97 percent of those who who didnt appear at the polls there were other reasons that were tied one has been the poor record of the reformists whenever they are in power for all throughout the last several decades and the 1st election after they come to power in the parliament an administration we see a low turnout of course not as low as now in the past 6 years they promised to improve the economy only through one single scenario removing the sanctions and through the end they failed this by the very fact that iran complied with all its undertakings according to their own a strategy and that was their only that was their only senario they said and they didnt have a plan b. But this doesnt mean that its been all know of course the gas price a price hike had a very determining factor in this weighed in the people from appearing at the polls also the room. About the spread not the rumors but the knew about the spread of cronulla just a couple of days before the election ok it also played a factor there were other reasons as well that must have had that i mean there are many issues that the that i would like to to take issue with you on on on i know are others who guest want to do the same i can see much you hit shaking his head here in doha lets lets bring in our in in london arent we want to as the low turnout in this election tell us what message will nonvoters delivering and to whom and what do you make of what mr finn was saying. So i think you can buy sleep have it both ways that the lights on out and they was perhaps influenced by accidental factors when you look at this just mention the coroner virus iranians are by and large kind of hypochondriac as well so that would chime with a lot of my experience like people are going to go out if i feel as a health risk on the other hand the iran is a managed democracy no ones as no one claims its a true democracy the Guardian Council manages the candidates and. If you are looking at the system from an iranian voters perspective you will see that. Any. Any affluent has been said that if you are middle class and if your lower middle class you will probably been poverty now to 2 years of sanctions on the economy or on heavily relies on. Importing goods and if it can trade with the outside world it creates enormous inflation inside the country now this summer aliens will argue that this is a problem of the system as a whole and they are consciously not voting to send a message. You can also argue that the system itself cannot provide for iranians because as cutouts by us sanctions which are illegal they violate the un ratified a c. P. I. And the us pulled out of the j c p o i as your previous guest mentioned was complying with that. But i dont think. Democracy is not doing well anywhere in the world and certainly not doing well in iran. Not sure. Do you want to come back on what youve heard so far before i ask you to represent go on i mean 1st of all we know that the forest where were band of power since 2000 maybe since this 6 measureless and we know that the last attempt to for them to go back to politics was 2009 where most of the leaders magical it will be. And in the form of prime minister. They are now in house arrest the former president Mohammad Khatami nearly nearly is banned of politics so those are the potent figures i would comes to the reformist i do believe personally 100 percent that the reform reform and reform can actually do not exist in iran what what is what has been now called reform is actually what has been left of all day. Or a group of a forest who still believe that the political system can be reformed they can do something and reality iran has one political color says the the 6 parliament where was the last reforms where representative 100 percent and they were actually in power what whether the president was Mohammad Khatami and the parliament was actually controlled order or had the majority of reformist and then they learned the lesson that basically there there are deadlines if they get to close to that there would be and the severe pressure and and that time they try to do so when they ask for. You know for reviewing to article in the constitution and they were banned of doing so the 2nd point i want to raise this election is been this round of the action has been designed from the beginning it was obvious that people there they have mistrust of the government they have mistrust of the political process they believe that there was nothing has been done. The president has that rouhani is not a form is the is a moderate he is the hes the hes the candidate of the stablish meant he was he was the person who everyone liked him to be the president because he was leader he was the leading the the negotiation with the e. U. And 2 since 2003 so he wasnt presenting the establishment that either that or rather than that or form is the campaign to kill any any kind of at his asian he does nothing is actually. Denying the fact that docs really they put a lot of obstacles behind it before him and he could he was in the caves to do anything stuff you talked about the disillusionment the people have fought for those the reformist politicians in in the country and perhaps you are saying that they are to blame for the fall in popularity by about by not implementing the legislation that theyve promised i mean thats not quite the case that was at the in many cases theyve been prevented from implementing legislation by the Supreme Leader no adrian as a matter of fact they have been in power let me explain a little bit because this this is just a proposed and in order to whitewash inefficiency of the reformist camp if they are banned and theyve been banned as my colleague has been saying then why do they insist to remain in power so much they want to stay in power to be an actor an influential actor within the framework of the Islamic Republic and they do not live power go no way never thats why exactly they struck an alliance with president rouhani how could he become president if it hadnt been for mr hatami the former iranian president the leader of the reformist camp he stressed in his book the 1st time that rouhani was elected and also in his 2nd term election he stressed i repeat you know. That this is become a catch phrase among iranians i repeat you need to go cast a vote for rowhani and when rouhani went to his hometown of jazz the 1st thing that he said was i do my greetings i if mr hotton his father and he himself they are in alliance they are very much live in they are live in iranian politics and you know their strategy for this time around the why they took part in the election and they gave 2 lists of candidates not 12 lists you know tehran and hundreds of others all across the country because they want to stay in power their strategy was we will take part in the election because they want to remain an influential factor these are just propaganda the that some reformists did and they still do in order to cover their inefficiency otherwise take a look at the number of m. P. s that have been disqualified for the next round and were not present in this election from 90 m. P. s there were disqualify some of course later their cases were revised somethin 15 of them but 45 reformists and 35 principle lists the opposite camp they were disqualified these qualifications are not just for the sake of political beliefs or things like that if theyve done corruption if they have theyve used misused power if they have done anything wrong they have a criminal record they are disqualified and some 55 percent of the principle this as well as a percent as a rest of us can disqualify them from something that units are and you want to come in that i was just saying painting me as a leader of a reformist camp and the reformist being a hugely influential pot of politics in iran is hate and. The reformist leaders have been in prison since 2000 and. 9 heartsome a is his freedom to appear in front of the press or his appear to go to political events. Is is also entirely cuttack old the idea that the reformists have. An enormous constituency where it matters in iran which is in the executive but also in the nonelected parts of the government hasnt been true since the late ninetys and i dont know how you couldnt really paint of another way successively since the founding of Islamic Republic after khomeini died elitist clerical establishment side of a regime which was deeply had ambivalent as well because they also had the revolutionary populist side. The elitist clerical side essentially took over with with the with the supremes leadership of hominidae and ever since that now has been tried to get itself and has been doing so for for it for reasons of political expediency because it has been under extreme pressure iran is under extreme pressure from the outside and when and when regimes are under extreme pressure from the outside they tend to close ranks and the more principal list elements of the regime are of course going to take a foreground but its been i think this sounds 20 years out of date what im hearing now. The conservatives think controlled all the main levers in power in iran now following this election except for the presidency so what does this result mean for president rouhani a relative moderates in his last year in office and what sort of person is likely to replace him next year. Ronnie ronnies pitch when he became. President in 2013 was to negotiate with j. C. Fairway with the u. S. And his critics from the principle of camp have been an entirely vindicated because there was a change at the top of the us and the us unilaterally pulled out so romney romneys legitimacy among the hardliners but also a lot of normal quote unquote every day right now and has been severely dented. Ronnie himself as the security guys and then that. Hes not a reformist aside but he has he was poised on the back of a reformist formed part of his constituency but theyre focused themselves on no in their power and certainly not after the. The Guardian Council into the engine in this parliamentary election having a stacked. Legislature also pays the way for the president ial election because you need if youre going to have. If in the if in the unlikely event we have. We dont have a principle its still hard line president which could happen due to american politics youre going to need a stack magill as in order to veto any of that ministers but you want to pick up on something you were saying a few moments ago to what extent is this a lick election a signal that the the do you ruling system in which reformist moderates have provided political opposition for the conservatives come to an end thats it with this election. And you know it is obvious that the whole political scene in iran is dominated and controlled by whats happening outside the borders and i mean here the Foreign Policy issue and the pressure from the United States all of the internal players basically this this this parliament. Is actually an indicator a reflection of the concerns of whats happening in outside and the pressure on iran so both i mean in such circumstances we know that in the last 20 years reformist they have no place in such circumstances and have they have to be marginalized so it is it was obvious that the the conservative the and whats interesting engine about the winning of the victory of the conservatives is actually there are competing within themselves now there are a competitor within the the same camp and and that made need actually to fragility to see the fragility with it within their performance because they are not really 100 percent on the same page because they have different agenda within the parliament and this may weaken in their performance there is one important point we have to remember this elections and ever elections is about renewing legitimacy to the regime and this is the lowest turning out in the elections the previous one was the 7th measureless and the percentage of turning out was 50 to 1. 2 this is nearly 42 this is absolutely a real concern to the regime this does having having said that we have to keep in mind the voters are divided into 3 blocks a quickly nearly 30 percent guaranteed voter those basically with that e. G. Whatever that it does they will vote for the kind of this of that e. G. There is another block who are really. They have doubts. And those people there will look at you know the political circumstances and those the other the bloke basically did they dont want to participate 100 percent so basically dead already 30 percent are secured in the election and that he was able to clearly to secure that 12 percent from other voters that is a strong message about politics and Foreign Policy and the performance of that e. G. And the stablish meant as a whole actually and that he cynthias stuff a joy to come back home that the elections are all about lending legitimacy to the regime just the leadership in iran still have legitimacy and what about this fragmentation between conservatism and modernism in the country whereas the hostility between the 2 going to lead our 1st of all i have a lot of comments on my colleagues were this. Make it as a make or fake it bring us was number 2. 57 percent. Sure sure ill do my best. The 42. 57 percent is a still. The world average its one of the best in the world even in the west that claims to be the cradle of democracy look at the numbers in france in the last parliamentary election around 48 percent of the people to a party in the election so this is taking part in you know of the countrys affairs and management and 70 thats what you know people do normally they resolve the differences and express their views through the ballot box since 15 months ago because we were short of time let me put it this way we knew that 2 shifts would happen from this election through the opinion polls conducted by american iranian universities in an academic sense this one was a shift of power from the reformers to the principal a scam because the reformists always pursued the liberal economy they widen the gini index and they the terrier at the condition for the lower classes of the society thats why the southern neighborhoods into iran and many of the cities they rushed to the polling stations to cast their want to shift of power to the principal ischemic but not the old generation lets remember ok thats the 2nd shift that isnt just started 60 percent of these newcomers are fresh are fresh politicians they have never been a kerry year diplomat or kerry or politician they have been picked up as experts in economy in politics Foreign Policy media culture and so on and so forth in order to improve this situation and put in stalemate put an end to the stalemate that was caused by this administration through their new ideas and plans and expert plans ok that im afraid were going to have to leave it many thanks indeed all of you for being with us mr. It tehran are unmerited london matchups wary. As always thank you for watching dont forget you can see this program again at any time just by going to the website youll find that out 0 dot com for further discussion on this topic join us on our Facebook Page youll find that at facebook dot com forward slash a. J. Inside story and you can also join the conversation on twitter i handle at a. J. Inside story from the Adrian Finnegan and the whole team here and though our thanks for watching well see you again bye for. Truly. There is a huge group of people at work behind our screens and the power they have is massive that urge to keep swiping through twitter feed thats designed the way we all click i agree to the terms and conditions outside and most of us never even give it a 2nd full and actually thats designed as well ali rakes boards how designers are manipulating our behavior and the final episode of all hail the algorithm on the jersey of. 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