Why is the u. S. Pulling troops from germany theyve been stationed there since the end of world war 2 and now donald trump is about to cost that number by more than a quarter but why now and should u. S. Allies and nato be concerned this is inside story. That welcome to the program im Laura Brennan theyre a legacy of world war 2 a symbol of u. S. Commitment to protecting its european allies u. S. Military forces stationed in germany are reportedly going to be shot be reduced present donald trump plans to pull out 9500 american soldiers by september reducing the number 225000 troops will either be redeployed elsewhere or sent home its being seen as the latest twist in relations between washington and balin tensions between the 2 sides have been strained over a number of disagreements but defense spending has been of particular concern for donald trump he has repeatedly pressed germany to increase its military budget and his chris size nato allies for relying on the u. S. To shoulder the cost of maintaining the alliance. Well a spokesman for the u. S. National Security Council john only yacht issued a statement on friday neither confirmed nor denied chance withdrawal of troops saying why we have no announcements at this time as commander in chief president john continually reassess is the best posture for the United States military forces and our presence overseas the United States remains committed to working with our strong ally germany to ensure our mutual defense as well as on many other important issues on German Foreign minister heiko mass says the limit will take note of Donald Trumps plan in an interview with the builder sontag newspaper on sunday he said we appreciate the cooperation with the u. S. Armed forces that has grown over decades it is in the interests of both our countries we are partners in the Transatlantic Alliance but its complicated germany hosts the largest number of u. S. Forces in europe followed by italy and the u. K. And the u. S. Army was almost 2000000 strong on the continent at the end of world war 2 in 1905 that number was brought down significantly 4 years later it was boosted again to more than 400000 military personnel in 1962 as the cold war with the soviet union grew but it was slashed by 2 thirds after the fall of the berlin wall those stationed in germany were gradually reduced over the years but the country has remained a crucial military hub for the u. S. Its where the headquarters for u. S. Forces in europe and africa based and it hosts an air base from which soldiers and equipment are transferred to iraq and afghanistan. Thank you well lets bring in our guests now and joining us from walpole massachusetts is andrew bass of it a u. S. Military historian and president of the Quincy Institute for responsible state craft from lynn is only a political analyst and professor in European Studies at Stanford University berlin and from moscow we have Pavel Felgenhauer a journalist and defense analyst thank you all very much for joining us here today only if i could start by getting some reaction there from germany weve had the foreign minister saying were close partners in the Transatlantic Alliance but its complicated in those words say so much dont they what is the prevailing response of this move. Well it is not. A spectacular situation we are talking about 9500 troops and as you said in the beginning we saw 6 digits 0 troops being stationed in germany and we saw the numbers go and dont have the numbers are growing up again after crimea i would not put too much weight on this particular announcement of the decision we still have to wait if it ever happens or its just a threat because last year we heard something similar of from the American Ambassador that the numbers of american troops will go down but the political burden. Keeps it low key as you quote the foreign minister it is complicated but not because of this announcement this is the development of a long term trend and we see many more serious developments in the transatlantic relationship that gives reason to be concerned and you one thing that only said its quite k. Is it will have to wait and see if this actually happens i mean you said in the past that trump is a president who tends to act on impulse ways weve as yet had no official statement from the white house do you think its actually going to go ahead with this troop drawdown from germany. I think its impossible to say. He does like to make headline grabbing announcements. If theres any purpose in those announcements i think it is that hes playing to his domestic Political Base we have to remember that a president ial election is right around the corner he had promised to end endless wars to reduce our u. S. Military commitments he really hasnt delivered on that so this could simply be a way. Of reminding his supporters of his intentions even if he doesnt really deliver and doesnt play well to his Political Base i mean its at best just shifting troops around isnt it i mean its not ending all withdrawing from any walls well im not sure im not part of his Political Base 1st of all. Im quite in a position to interpret the mindset in the trump camp but i would say that it does not appear that that in that world there is a very serious and thoughtful understanding of how the world is changing from a security perspective and therefore how the u. S. Posture globally ought to change what there is and this is what trump place too is a sense that we have the nation United States has borne too large a burden for too long a period of time and now its time for others to share some of that burden he consistently makes that point and again i suspect that in the pro trump camp that that plays well but how significant a move is this being seen that in moscow. Well its has the an essential kind of pillar but Russian Foreign policy since the end of the 2nd world war ringback its a big attempt to get the americans out of your. I mean to weaken as much as possible the transatlantic connection and germany the us the receipt mess the censure are your plan and thats neutralize germany but of the breach between moscow and growing and that would actually more west secure the russian trying to as it seemed and still seeing right now in moscow and as the west turned srun for western direction the problem damien rice. And there so this. Worsening not mother worse than a seemingly. Rationed germany and United States is always welcome or dull militarily must live this even this is the base drop comes through and it wont be militarily that significant and at times mean need be some of the troops if they are mowed down to germany proper will be just its closer to russia say and go and when germany there essentially very little combat troops thats the rear area its just consider important very important just explode. It so this is seen more as a political move. He has done a lot on your mind American Relations with its european allies and is there a war and so thats basically good and and it does trying not thieve this thing when you have from the russians that they like this they like antagonism the arguments the infighting they not see that this only benefits russia i doubt if he cares and. I think one of the most important things to appreciate President Trump is that. Hes not a strategist he doesnt think really in g a political terms he certainly doesnt reflect on how the global order might be changing and therefore how u. S. Policy should adapt he at this point is thinking about the november president ial election. And trying to. Facilitate his reelection i mean in many respects although his base remains loyal in many respects his presidency has not been a success if we factor in the. Deaths here in the United States caused by the coronavirus pandemic if we look at the overall condition of the economy enormous numbers of people who are unemployed and again if we look at his failure to make good on his promises to end endless wars and a simple issue here is not simply the u. S. Military presence in. Europe but also afghanistan and the middle east its really not a very impressive record so my guess is preoccupied with the coming election he is making these gestures and thats all they are these gestures to try to make it possible for him to argue as he consistently does that he is a successful president and therefore deserving of a 2nd term ok so really if trump does not care enough to maintain good relationships with europe with gemini and with nato how essential is that Transatlantic Alliance and can gemini instead look more within europe to strengthen nato over germany the transatlantic relationship is by far the most important one and everyone across the board in the german party spectrum sees it that way and therefore what we saw with the announcement of whats going to troops is of course another step in what mohs describes as a complicated relationship but its certainly not the problem the problem is thats the core components of the transatlantic relationship mutual trusts the rule of law a western understanding of what is democracy. The Core Principles and values and what directions of in developing nato all these things have been put under enormous stress with announcements that dont really speak the language of partnership but draw the that the largest act in the group gives clear come ons and its expected that the others followed in some sort of a locked in the chance and this is not exactly a partnership and that gives reasons to concerns and i guess that is also part of the reason why america announced that shes not willing to come to washington that she sounds on it and as a form of revenge we see no announcement of that kind note i must remember must mean that there are voices within germany on the left wing side of the political divide who actually welcomed this announcement why is that. Germany has always been seen within europe has the country that tries to understand russia and when we go for they used for home countries on the eastern side of the iron curtain they are much much more concerned about anything that is send as a signal from russia we also have sharp criticism from the u. K. And certain forms of sensitivity in the left spectrum in france when it comes to relations with russia and germany there have always been voices that thought of wouldnt it be a strategic idea to incorporate russia and to have better relations with nato and to try to find compromises and not as harsh we impose sanctions and as on has russian doesnt show any commitment to move beyond what we have with the means agreement we should state with what we decided after the occupation of crimea have a one of a chance base for germany with merkel is that its too reliant on russia for a natural gas that its in a sense controlled by moscow is it well that jazzy sure has being quite a contentious one and a little course the trumpet ministration has been trying to stop the. Truly not your ration the new trans baltic northern route or russian gas isnt there or germany. That is mates germany is a russia when america spending treasurer on maintaining nato and russia and that this is not right of course the same arguments that happened during the cold war when century that reversed russian Gas Pipelines are built the german. President theres some other loot. Presser gases act natural gas is actually a role that russia does not need this norton street thing and they have already 2 main pipes go you youre not theyre not. Actually desire for more gas inside you are but in the world around us germany will depend more german the case now its nuclear and now ok this is the production that will need more gas and the gas will most likely come from russia though course there are other places theres states theres middle east theres a lot of places where gas may be shipped so yes but its not that. Russia i mean russia needs europe and germany so its gas because the cant even watch some of the other place so its a. Year that europe and germany so much depends on russia its an interdependent show. Between the buyer and the seller it doesnt mean that germany because its buying russian gas becomes that are actually falling ok and i want to look at the significance of nato in germany you spent 2 tours in west germany to contain the former u. S. S. R. Does a military presence that today continue to deter a russian advance so that was a long time ago and in another era we were deterring the soviet union which no longer exists i have to say although i have no sympathy for President Trump in a general sense and i think that this announcement of the troop cuts was typically ham handed and not coordinated in advance. I do sympathize with the notion that its time for europe to assume responsibility for its own security the conditions that existed when nato was created in 1049 no longer exist just as a soviet union no longer exists so in my estimation europe is fully capable of defending itself no i dont not for a 2nd of my suggesting that therefore we should just you know pull out tomorrow but i think there is a need for a serious process of beginning to shift responsibility. For defending europe to europeans and and shifting not immediately withdrawing shifting responsibility away from the United States that were were but 75 years since the end of world war 2. And and frankly the United States is overcommitted. Its you are aware of our. Very difficult domestic challenges right now we need to fix our own country and to some degree that means paying somewhat less attention to parts of the world like europe and i phrase it carefully im not trying to suggest isolationism were done with the world but there is a need for the United States to reassess its priorities ok well the time might be right thats just the cost back a few 1000000 few months ago when nato secretary general was confident that the u. S. Would not reduce that presence in europe and this is what he had to say in january. We see questions being asked about the states all the time something from the bottom of the to north america and europe. We see that on both the science of the atlantic but the same time we see that north america and europe could do more to get the damage done for many many years do not distastes not leaving your affectionate distances increasing their presence in the europe with more troops more forces more exercises a new pinata so stepping up. Increasing evidence of the forces and investing more in our shared secured it is only with such mixed messages coming out of the white house is under right is it time for a change the time figure out to take out more for its own security i totally agree with what he said we are in a different era and Global Security is very different from what it used to be times of the cold war but what we are talking about today is not either the United States is present in europe or its not youre talking about a small portion of the american presence as i had taken back to the United States or moved farther east to poland so germany is not less protected or anything its also not that europe cannot afford it we are reshuffling the responsibilities over a longer period of time its not just that you press a button and the German Defense budget increases up to 2 percent of its g. D. P. This is an enormous amount of money and in times like past coronato there are many more urgent things that need to be addressed buying more fighter planes pavel how might russia capitalize as were having this discussion about the future of nato about how much the u. S. Is involved about even what nato means how can russia capsulize on this in fighting. I would have said that some are less kind there are some in russia a century rest see more. Different problems and this course and it in the western alliance but theres not theres another part there its there is the in your internal russian squabbles and discussions within the russian government where russia right now is also present there on the right wrist has an economic crisis has that a budget crisis something there are a lot of dense fighting within the russian government are not aware of the priorities should be the nomic so will block or the russian government wants to cut defense spending too and so forth the Defense Ministry and the fence industry and everything thats connected to that its sort of down to condemn continue to for trade nato and the United States as aggressive we intend that and the terrible threat poles there in the west oh thats essential so that means the joy is good but i dont think that moscow is going to be right now russian propaganda is going to be pressing that were because both so want to say that nature is terrible nate that was aggressor and they want to come and thats another part of the turn no russian take on this situation right ok and just lastly i mean they had to have always said that they could survive one trial the president saying the question is can he Alliance Survive to. Well of course i dont know. And i hope that there will not be a 2nd Trump Administration but youre right if there is if you went he will be further emboldened. He will. Be and reelection will affirm in his mind and in in those of his followers that hes on the right course and therefore one can imagine not predicting but one can imagine that that would then worsen relations between United States and europe with regard to security early what then nato is parties be at this juncture when i think it would be naive to believe that if we do not see a 2nd Trump Administration after november then things go all the fine because of what i said earlier every american who is gratian reminded europe and germany in particular that we should do more and care act together and do more in terms of urge sharing and so this will be on the agenda and remain on the agenda but the nato also has to think of what is their future role what is the Long Term Plan it was counted in times of the cold war and ever since made it was looking for a mission it tried several things and it is still kind of a constructions i have accounts of you find its huge emission ok well that we will leave it for today many thanks to all our guests for joining us andrew bass of edge an ebook that Pavel Felgenhauer. 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