Geopolitical tensions not to mention the small matter of a looming election join me Steve Clemons in conversation with leading voices on the bottom line your weekly take on u. S. Politics and society on aljazeera. Hello im sam is a than this is counting the cost on aljazeera your weekly look at the world of business and economics this week economies opening up this by the pandemic as that head towards world war 2 levels could we see all stare at all stimulus and when is the right time to pay down debt as economies tank and job losses increase the nasdaq hits a record high the stock market is divorced from reality or are we seeing a tech divide between the profitable and loss making and the pandemic has been particularly devastating for Indigenous People across latin america we look at how they are fighting back. The fall brutal impact of the coronavirus pandemic was laid bare when britain became the 1st g 20 nation to release Economic Data in the 1st 4 months of the lockdown the economy tanked a staggering 20 percent in april britain is heading towards the worst recession in 300 years the consequences for economies and jobs could have been worse without rich nations spending trillions of dollars to limit the damage in britain the government is expected to spend 60000000000. 00 from march to october on paying. 80 percent of salaries are furloughed workers the scheme is currently supporting 8700000. 00 jobs or a 3rd of all working people india announced a 266000000000. 00 stimulus most of it though was good wards the Financial Sector there is little support for the 120000000. 00 people whove lost their jobs and in the United States up to 3 trillion dollars has been spent on various programs that includes checks for each other out worth 1200. 00 thats likely to push the debt to g. D. P. Ratio to 107 percent by 2025 thats more than the debt it held after world war 2 the big question is how do we begin to pay down these huge debts leaders of some of the poorest parts of the u. K. Are concerned they wont cope if the government reintroduces or stare at the cuts after the long down lawrence lee has more from middlesborough in northeastern england. What will things be like when its all over for rich places maybe not so bad but poor communities have a right to be worried the postindustrial landscape of teesside in northeastern england tells a story of joblessness poor life chances and join the virus the high mortality rates is the British Government tries to pay off its huge debts through austerity that they cant begin to imagine how much worse things will get its almost too difficult to comprehend how we would go about doing that because were i think were at that as low as we think in terms of the the cook weve made our track and even start to think about how we would make more cuts 1st hand experiences of all this show a town already on the age we need to live is vital supplies to 17 people with Underlying Health conditions and therefore most at risk in this tiny house of for Asylum Seekers including an elderly woman from sierra leone who has diabetes given the things binny has seen. Any more cuts to services would be catastrophic but there was a case right here in memphis right centile middles for someone who did not eat for 17 days 17 for 17 days so she has been going over food banks she saw the food banks were closed and even though she is fully entitled as a citizen but she was looking at you know overlooked and she was almost going to die disease thrives in poverty the economic response of the healthcare crisis will make or break places like this just before all this started the new British Government swept to power on a promise of what it called levelling up plowing money into the forgotten english northern towns but not only has covered 19 put all of that on ice its also led to a new enormous National Debt a debt which towns like middlesborough are in no position whatsoever to help a back story here could be that of any port town in any country which has taken on massive debt nationally or globally that that will happen we will lose generations we will lose businesses people will lose hope hope the health and social implications will be colossal that it isnt an option borrowing at these new affordable rates prudently and spending intelligently is the only solution to this so many of the problems here predated the virus but maybe the Health Care Crisis could have a Silver Lining after all better jobs stronger communities surely mean healthier people largely aljazeera middlesborough. Lets take a deeper dive into debt and what to do about it im delighted to have with us yan randolph director of sovereign risk it i chose markets he joins us via skype from london good to have you with us yan so after spending big of course comes the hard part how do you on wind debt without hurting jobs in the economy is a tricky one. We are faced with an unprecedented situation. Global economy basically crashed. Were forecasting minus 3 percent Global Growth this year. And that means governments will lose revenues tax revenues budget deficits will widen. And we will see debt levels. As a ratio to g. D. P. Thats public debt to g. D. P. Top 120 people pretty percent thats never happened before except its the 2nd world war thats good for advanced economies developing economies will be just under 40 percent to just over 60 percent theres a huge increase in debt in order finance those deficits have widened and it will be the lingering burden the key question is how will governments is that will it become a problem will it create crises will it undermine growth in years to come those are the Big Questions well how do you think that governments then will unwind the i dont want to make you look into a crystal ball but im one of the options out there well so fast so far governments been able to borrow new money from their own Central Banks thats quantity of easing and its not just in the developed world developing countries are also gauging in their own concept of easing where they borrow from their own Central Banks assumes of course that there is. Domestic savings and they can borrow in their own currency and then they go on endlessly borrowing from Central Banks. Well it could go on it depends how its managed thats the risk profile here. To the extent that World Governments can borrow very long term at very low Interest Rates that basically spread over many many years even decades that will tend to make it easier for them to debt service they need to lock into these very low Interest Rates and lengthen the maturity of the average maturity of their debt the more they can do that the more they can spread the burden over many many years but its not a free lunch that will increase and it will have to be paid back one way or another and it will begin to undermine growth in the years to come so its not a free lunch but they can manage it if they manage it so the other key question is investors that the you know the commercial world as well as the Central Banks well the commercial banks and other investors are they willing to buy up this new debt and for that it really is about confidence in the macroeconomic policies of the government the Monetary Policy that the School Policy when theyre seen as responsible. Every what most economists agree that now is the time for governments to spend to support the. Economy because we do need that growth to come back we need to rekindle growth because that lee growth will deliver all the taxes in order to help the debt servicing so its very important now that governments do support growth because ultimately we can only grow out of that with growth and that was going to be precisely the point i was going to raise about the confidence given what you said earlier about the debt to g. D. P. Ratio going up and if you take the case of the Worlds Largest economy the United States of america well theyre looking at 117 percent by 2025 you know how is that going to impact on confidence message confidence. Well its throws the question back do we have confidence the american on the tree the School Systems by and large we do the u. S. Federal reserve the central bank has. Done extraordinary measures to provide liquidity into the markets and thats also spilled over into the emerging markets thats what helped to provide the money. In order for governments to borrow so thats helped support risk assets but for the u. S. Its a question of whether they can get growth coming back again when we reflect back on the end of the 2nd world war which is where we are similar levels in terms of debt ratios just over 120 percent on average little less the some countries a little bit more the others like italy. They are in the fiftys or sixtys and seventys the debt ratios came down but what helped there was of course growth recoveries after the war that was very important in bringing those debt ratios doubt we hoped for similar scenario this time around where we can rekindle growth and help bring back down those debt ratio is also what happened in the sixtys and seventys we had inflation and inflation also helped a lot in terms of bringing those debt levels down but inflation is of one of the key things that investors will look at because they will be put off they will lose credibility in the eyes of investors if the government starts stoking inflation advocates i want you to to look at it from the spectrum of advocates for the modern monetary theory who say we can go on spending on the middle mounts of money do they d have a point well depends that you ask which mantras if you ask a german monetarist. Typically those that inhabit the bunder spank and similar Central Banks they would be horrified at the idea of governments borrowing from directly from their social because their experience the ninetys. That this led to a runaway inflation which decimated savings you had the power as ocean of politics which ended up in the 2nd world war so they would be horrified at the idea that governments could borrow indefinitely from their central bank would create problems if it led to inflation all right thanks so much and randolph there thank you. New u. S. Sanctions against the Syrian Government have gone into effect they target any person or entity who does business with those close to president bashar assad the caesar act as its known is aimed at increasing the economic isolation of acids regime it also affects countries seeking to do business with syrias government the sanctions are expected to derail the regimes postwar recovery plans aljazeera as a whole the reports from beirut we should warn viewers you may find some of the images to be disturbing. Theyre known as caesars photographs named after a military defector who documented torture and killings in Syrian Government jails his testimonies to the u. S. Congress was part of a campaign to hold the regime responsible for what have been described as war crimes it led to the passing and now the implementation of a bill in the u. S. The socalled caesar act in any country in the world theres a Company Individual 83. 00 thats provided acknowledge the financial support. Military support. Are all liable for states and under the caesar bill these sanctions go further than existing ones are aimed at preventing International Engagement with Bashar Assads government partnering or fighting on its side will also be punishable the Syrian Government calls the legislation economic terrorism but proponents of the law point to exemptions that minimize any impact on civilians the federal government is allowed to buy medicine they want but they dont want to. Be on that they want to fund their war machine they want to pump the militia human Rights Groups have accused the Syrian Government of using aid to fund its atrocities benefit those loyal to it and punish opponents by confiscating their properties plans to move to a postwar phase in syria will now be difficult. Its already faced with a collapsing economy and currency there is unprecedented poverty some say assad hasnt been this vulnerable at any time during the 9 year war. It kind of shuts the door fully closed. In terms of there being any light at the end of the tunnel for the Syrian Regime so i think politically and diplomatically that will have an impact but it adds to the already terrible effects of the syrian economic crisis assad has faced pressure in the past but has never agreed to making political concessions he since declared victory in the war in syria and while he may have won militarily winning the peace may prove harder the new legislation means the fight for damascus as the seat of assads power and legitimacy has still to be fought so hard there are people out the tech heavy nasdaq hit a record high earlier this month turning around a 40 percent deficit on the year it wasnt alone markets have staged a remarkable recovery totally detached from the economic reality of the pandemic a large factor in the rise has been socalled retail or nonprofessional investors theyve taken to speculating or gambling because many Sports Events have been struck off still the big winners during the pandemic Amazon Google facebook apple and tesla but not all techs are alike some have been going through a rough patch some poor bets from soft banks 100000000000. 00 vision fund resulted in a 17700000000. 00 loss that was the worst in the companys 39 year history you may remember saudi arabia lent a huge chunk of money to invest in the likes of we works and over we were posted a loss of 2900000000. 00 in the 1st quarter that sits biggest loss in 3 quarters it has since cut 6700 jobs closed offices around the world and plans to sell off some of its businesses shouldnt surprise you it had an 80 percent drop in the number of people booking rides. Well joining me now from new york fire skype is daniel i have daniel is the managing director of Equity Research at new york based web bush securities good to have you with us so whats pushing up the markets to record levels is the some sound economic basis for this confidence or is it just investors looking to speculate if you look this is really been a tech led rally with sang the really we in the way know a lot of it is about whats happening as code environments really excel rated the clash Cyber Security and even on the consumer side streaming in ecommerce thats why he continues he sang in that gammas on apple new google and facebook going continue to go much higher no in my opinion techs going to continue to lead this rally further and the investors are working on the other side the dark valley where stock should be internet 2000 and 21. 00 numbers but i think its really right now a quarter Glass Half Full view especially for tech and sang hymns but it sounds like theres a least a little bit of guessing going on is there a risk of a bubble being created. Look right now me if you look at normalized 2021 numbers thats what the streets going off of you know of you look at the code in 1000 pandemic the economic base that were seeing right now if that extends further out 61218 months that i think youll see valuations get hit here so i think right now youre seeing a benefit the doubt that this really will cost reduce 6 months you know situation an all too late get resolved from an Economic Perspective in terms of a rebound as the lock down in there definitely could be you know risk off trade here by thing right now you know to use a kind of be a Freight Train rolling ahead in terms of tech stocks and what i would continue point out theres a lack of secular growth story and many of their men and thats why you can you see banging work from home names going up into the right is there any sense that some companies are holding off coming to the market like insta caught valued at 14000000000. 00 yeah right now the i. P. O. Market continues to be very rocky and i think when you talk about insta car and others you know they re now have you look at the appetite from the investor perspective its very selective in terms i. P. O. s because right now the worry is is that what is the growth look like which is a Sustainable Growth rates and i think right now were seeing is where the i. P. O. Market was closed for many i think thats going to spur more emanates or a lot of these companies both financial and should t. J. Buyers i think it really come down to the need to see a rebound in the 2nd half to see more of these i. P. O. s come out is it possible than you will to say a divide is emerging between if we can go in the old Guard Companies like google amazon apple and then the likes of. Be in the. Oh yeah i think you could definitely theres a divide because right now if you take a step back and you look at the cool with impact the gig autonomy the air v. M. The. You know the with some others do is have been ones that have really picked up on i mean thats where you have ridership that down globally for 7 year the percent but yet ecommerce amazon massively strong Netflix Streaming you look at apple in terms of services you can indeed social media as was Online Advertising view and facebook now those are stocks that continue to new lead the way so i think you are seeing a divide the really id call it its the gig hermie right now that continues have just a massive black cloud because of the covert environment and health and safety concerns by let me get your thoughts on softbank almost 18000000000 dollars in losses is it losing credibility i think that would be an understatement i mean i think right now it comes down it would hard to be 5 and a worst bet than some of the ones that softbank has made you know even if you are playing blindfolded darts looking for investments i think they have lost a lot of credibility here and i can tell you need even in being in when i was in each or in january and they were lot of companies in there looking in investment in terms of d. C. Is theyre really trying to stay away from saucepan because of that Reputational Risk thing thats been a been a massive hit in terms of what theyve taken and obviously the we work as a media blackout ifas auspex i think in the thanks so much daniel eyes that thanks for having the coronavirus pandemic has been particularly devastating for Indigenous People across latin america our latin america editor lucien newman reports how communities in ecuador are defying the aunts and fighting back against the pandemic. Is an especially World Community perched on the high lands of ecuador. The centuries its been the Agricultural Service center for the capitol hill about an hour away. You might as well be another world this sign Warns Community under quarantine. For 132 checkpoints in and around every single entry point q. Everything is disinfected and the Indigenous Community controls should jools entrances and exits of all vehicles and people. Only a few outsiders are allowed in a curfew from 2 pm to 5 am it is strictly enforced its now 2 pm and the town is closed till tomorrow. A little circular where. You must understand that the endian and the generous people have their own philosophy their own cause my vision language and culture thats applied to our struggle for land water and self preservation were also applying it now to the pandemic. Those who disobey by breaking curfew or other irresponsible behavior are submitted to indigenous justice. These young men are being punished with 8 to 16 hours of Community Work and conclude everything from cleaning this plaza to public toilets its a moral sanction meant to embarrass them before the community that you are not your man of the police sometimes hands them over to us and we assign the punishment. The results are impressive in this community of 120000. 00 there hasnt been a single death from called 19 nothing short of miraculous in the country with the highest death toll per capita in latin america. Is never the less suffering on account of the pandemic. Its famous for its roses one of ecuadors main exports but with the world a clone of me on lockdown there roses have been wilting away. In the flowers on our main source of income around 80 percent of the population lives from them so this pandemic has hurt us badly. A few cargo planes are beginning to export their beautiful products again albeit in small quantities. But the Indigenous Community likes to say that their lives will again smell like roses as long as they continue winning the battle against the intrusive new virus. You see in human aljazeera. And thats our show for this week but remember you can get in touch with ask via twitter use the hash tag c. D. C. When you do for drama. Well counting the cost of down to 0 dark is our address theres more for you online at aljazeera dot com slash c. D. C. Back well take you straight to our pay to each has individual reports links and the entire episode for you to catch up on. Thats it for this edition of counting the cast im sam is a than from the whole team here thanks for joining us the news on aljazeera is next. Thats going to do it is on the cusp of a new chapter in this history. Most of us on the telephone signed an agreement to pave the way to the withdrawal of the mansion troops. The high cost was paid to get to this point. Over the past few years the u. S. Has increasingly conducted its part of the war from the sky was more bombs dropped last year than any other year in the past decade. But with that came a rise in civilian casualties. This is all accidents do happen mistakes do happen and that this is about owning your mistakes is about saying sorry and this is about accountability in the in the last the unaccountable war the families we interviewed not receiving adult humans from the u. S. Left without closure. They told us that they so look what happened to their loved ones was a crime. And they want justice and answers something war too often do not. Rewind returns. On the past amount is a documentary but compelling. Diluted by the hard. Rewind begins with faggots in a city under siege. Just. One. Fixed on aljazeera kenyan journalists in pursuit of press freedom and justice i have seen very desperate situations where someone seeking but that im picking up for being clean thats investigating government corruption and the National Health care system some of the transactions espionage and the collapse. Of money that is unexplained to Africa Uncensored and publish those things up people dont want to publish even if it doesnt have to be oscar whos truth is it anyway on aljazeera. Hello im daryn jordan in doha with a quick reminder of the top stories here on aljazeera the rate of covert 9000 infections in the United States has surged across southern and southwestern states new cases of the virus spiked where bars restaurants and other businesses reopened early there are questions about whether restrictions have been lifted too soon rob reynolds has more from los angeles on that new wave of infections today in florida which is seeing a big spike the governor there Rhonda Santas said that hes seeing a lot of
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