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A month of protests in belarus has failed to push Alexander Lukashenko from office no opposition leaders are missing or fleeing to exile so how much longer can the president hold on this isnt a story. Hello welcome to the program on the wrong Alexander Lukashenko insists hes not going anywhere despite a month of protests against the belarus and president s disputed reelection tens of thousands of people rallied again on sunday to them on a new fight saying last months election was rigged. They ignored the interior ministrys warning that the demonstration is Illegal Police detain more than 630 people some were seen dragged away or beaten by Security Offices human Rights Groups have condemned lucas and has cracked down on the process. But im here to express my civic stance against the rigged elections to treating our citizens the way he does. Why do people come here. Because theyre angry. At what about. Our q what do you mean what about about a man unlawfully remaining at his post opposition leaders have either gone into exile or disappeared the foreign minister of neighboring left the one you accuse the by the recent government of using what he called stalinist tactics to eliminate opponents will bring in i guess in a moment but 1st out is there is Bernard Smith has the latest from vilnius its becoming clear that if youre a leading member of the opposition in belarus then the risk of detention or just being taken off the streets is becoming an occupational hazard Maria Kolesnik over was according to witnesses bundled into a mass man she was on the streets or minced she dropped her phone by the van as this was happening witnesses say in the opponents picked up by one of the man pushing or into the bar and then they all drove off shes been a leading vocal opponent of Alexander Lukashenko since he declared victory and the august 9th disputed election that he said he won with 80 percent of the vote since then has been one of the leading campaign is calling for fresh elections shes part of a group of very high profile that leader already exiled. Vilnius. So another leading member of the opposition gone and it comes now is increasing pressures on foreign powers to do. More say more about whats happening in belarus and the e. U. But its now prepared to impose sanctions on 31. 00 senior officials because the government im not includes an assets and a travel apparently lucas shank himself wont be sanctioned germany is not prepared to do that yet it wants to see more opportunity for talks before it considers sanctioning. Himself. Meanwhile according to the kremlin its off to moscow in a couple of days according to sources that real change in approach really because before the election was casting russia as a threat to belorussia and saying that vote for me and ill protect you from attempts by russia to influence whats going on since then. Has turned to Vladimir Putin for help and theres lot of putin but hes backing. And making it much more easier for him to stay in Office Without the kremlins backing his position will be looking much more parents. Lets bring in our guests in minsk Yaroslav Roman chuck a former president ial candidate in 2010 hes now president of the misses Scientific Research center a think tank in vilnius lithuania for not via chalker a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council and in moscow something called a political scientist at the Russian Academy of sciences a woman a continual id like to begin minsk with you jaroslav its been a month now. Schank is not going anywhere in fact hes doubling down hes cracking down hes arresting key opposition leaders as well as many others including maria coalesce in a code of a protest is ongoing anyway either theyre in defiance of a ban theyre out in the streets in huge number is this a stalemate or is this simply just the situation now and just keep on going its a bill it was a revolution people definitely woke up and this is is absolutely different the atrocities that tortures and motors that they were human conduct that definitely unite people the people up with justice will freedom independence no matter what location god does it will never. Destroy our determination and if you use them all the society and the last sunday we saw or the same hundreds of thousands of people not only at mainz but in over 42 by the recipient cities thats unique and we are determined to fight to the end and we suspect that the question who would try to have a kind of deal with moscow for the legitimacy of this deal would be very dubious and even for the kremlin supports gun conditionally im sure that to add to the slogan there will be many more slogans against which you know on the ground but every Opposition Movement does need a figurehead it needs a leader and is obviously very aware of that hes arresting leaders left right in the center is that housing and impacts you think yourself. We have a leader and you can also though shes in exile but we know why she laughed shes with us and of course she is the president elect and. Decentralised call peroration unique way on a mass protest is what them as brothers is demonstrating the question unless he starts negotiation with the lucianne he would definitely lose politico rounds and he would be even more wounded and more desperate to grasp power but i dont i think that he is doing well lets bring in in moscow vladimir soften a call for russia seems to be in a bit of a difficult position here there is a lot of affection for russia within the roots but if it sides with lucas shank of a much longer its going to lose the protest movement at the very least whats most guys thinking. Thank you actually. Your rights its a very difficult proposition for russia actually because. Russia who actually understands that the situation is a serious imbalance some one thing according to russias thinking is that if there will be instability continuing in belarus a billable somehow will be disloyal as a country there is a danger of that nato countries could rush to the direct border with russia for the russians and that means not in case that doubles that will succumb to russia from some western countries i just would like to say that this is a real deal because. Although there is not not actually a lot of them. For the moment the brothers from belarus have the back up against russia feeling but so there might be such a situation this is one thing not another tsunami like what into russias uses could be that you could chunk will be consuming news as belarus lead off for sometime more but that is also a choice for moscow essence you and i will continue business as usual or just make another option to find probably thats not messy got within the close circle of. Look at some cost which it could be a new leads are. In this case probably probably that might be made a sion on behalf of russia for holding a dollar lection well lets bring in your assad again. What were hearing from moscow that is that there might be a space for a new figurehead it wont be to have a scale but it could be somebody else would not be acceptable to the protest movement. Well you can also gaze no doubt with the future president bush is that peter that united better or worse not position and most of the society and we demand negotiations with the government on the transition how to get out of this political crisis different i believe that there will be a new leader if we call it hold free and fair d election and. That reason that he will feel that it was slight chance to remain in the boat was in history as the 1st president without the lack. Of his reputation if he doesnt then there was a russian factor there is a lag there ogara economy it changing the nature of the protest in from this peace school or delayed into more trouble aggressive or brutal i would not exclude that if we see whats going on in the Economic Situation Financial Markets and governments to market. In vilnius i mean this is a big challenge for russia has to navigate both the protest as and. Himself is jus that were hearing in a couple of days but its not just russia theres the e. U. Involved as well what is the International Community thinking when it takes a look at whats going on in the us so far we have quite limited the reaction of the International Community we have 3 Baltic States the manual that fan is to a name posed sanctions against 31. 00 and others officials and an illusion and we have a European Union considering imposing sanctions against 17 persons but now the added 14 persons to this least but not location called on the list and so we wish to care about individual sanctions including the canonical restrictions they counts of this people will be blocked more likely but we also will see here mayor many many statements and. The National Leaders spent on leaders are. Tranter supported by the russian people in their aspirations and in their fight for freedom and democracy but i still believe that much more can be done here i know that many interNational Leaders including the Swedish Foreign minister have met. Have expressed their words of support but still the not many of them recover nice plan as the as the president elect and i think this is their major problem problem but also is the main and the major goal and task for for supplement to be recognized as them representative of belarus people not to question well thats actually quite interesting from a lack of if they dont recognize. As the president elect and they dont sanction lucas himself then Everything Else that they doing doesnt have any teeth surely. Actually thats quite interesting situation because the majority of the western countries they did not recognize their selections as free and fair. Means that. After inauguration hes not term limited to meet the legal president anymore and what makes all his deals and decisions and legal formally that should be that should be considered that he doesnt have power to take all the solutions and the same time they did not recover ness to north koreas president elect and that means that in fact we will have this culture without legitimate and legal power for a while and this is this is why its very important to want. To to to to establish and. For this to come also going to steam its very important to establish connections and common understanding which should be this relationship between. Deleterious and strong democracies right now because it seems russia will the support and look anyway despite. Attempts to to build relationships with western democracies. In moscow vladimir we are hearing that this meeting is going to take place between the lot of a putin and a himself what do we think will come of that meeting do you have any idea what the russian perspective might be obviously russia sees the reeses within its sphere of influence and thats the overriding factor isnt it. Thank you for the question well rose circle speaking because that was the new shoe to fall for 1st of all the present look of shock i consult for coming off to most 2 to hold the negotiations with russia brussels within the post and. What could be actually i think not probably frozen food single speak good to look at some cabal of the possible the possible to slow will slow down as. Zeller oceanfront of them that will be also probably most probable with the i. P. L. They jumped on it and we see another things up so that russia has twice the economic down the financial interest some balance and a lot of finances were actually put down in so belarusian the company and bellicose as a very important. Consumer of the russian finances and russia is that it important to consume all the russian roots so as we say as we know that economy in any situation can actually determine the whole agenda so there will be direct talks from what could be the got into. The a look at some cost of that as a presence of relevance or. Safeguarding the russian interest so the direct question is probably a very unpleasant question superstrong because what we can do in this situation this is just just some thinking at all and that. Is not going to nominate. I think that there will be no actually involvement of russia directly militarily into the belarusian situation because we have enough and in afghanistan there was a soviet union and actually i think that the brother putin is a man who actually lost his lessons rather well and on the lessons of the possible use. Ill get to my well small i think. Only in this situation. Im going to look at some. Completion or obligations recollect that security treaty the well lets bring it lets put that point to our guest in minsk yaroslav room and chuck. Nobody is really talking about Russian Military invention intervention with the roofs itself but we all talking significant political intervention and Vladimir Putin clearly is going to have this conversation if it happens with location call but is the president elect missing a trick a shes in exile how come she hasnt publicly at least reached out to the russians and and asked for some sort of negotiations. I dont think this is as a direct line of communication with mr putin the kremlin doesnt act like this for the kremlin emphasize that it recognizes the exam to look at whos been its loyal ally 026 year i think there are 3 areas where. Russian ability and talks with the whole 1st political area. Even now russia has been supporting with the with Information Support diplomatic support i think that the military enforced cruncher spends a lot of advisors from russia right now operating in bellows jim politico area which is very important i think here for a look at is under pressure he could consider reconsider his position on ukraine and georgia that will be a very powerful boost to move to of the kremlin ego and thirdly a lot of Economic Issues that this is where look at franco would definitely try to make the best yourself using his allies he has lobbies inside moscow i mean the Energy Powers and you companies finance. Businessmen talk about people who deliver imported goods from european you know through bel air rules we have about 20000000000 dollars great economy between the 2 countries operated mostly by russia and this is where a powerful tool to look if im going to be used in the negotiations it is not on the usual agender but people who are involved definitely out bottle this high ranking force structure is not sure that that would have an impact on what the final decision of which it would be. In vilnius i mean clearly lucas sanka is holding some very powerful cards is he got the upper hand you think when it comes to negotiations with russia. I think a location. Of the strongest power right now. Actually russian backup and Russian Support and he really really had to do everything and that will help him to stay in power and right now this informational media and political government is given by putin formally or informally this is what keeps us regime life right now actually i dont believe off there put didnt stop supporting look i dont believe it will stay in power for more than one months lets say and there right now there are negotiations of the new question from within the i think the me the major the major question is what are on the table what is on the table what parts of the sort of any team is going to offer in exchange of this put in support of no question because president s and im afraid it will be not just the integration as it was discussed last year it can be the more it can be. They can discuss info there. This is the slow incorporation of belarus into Russian Federation lets say and look like a temporary governor or president of this. Other recent region the part of Russian Federation you can hear of course but unfortunately you know we it seems that hes so sick of power that hes ready to put in everything and this intercept and intercept conversation that we have heard that been were somewhat and very lean as means a nonstop this is their. Very good sign that that means its trying the heart to be liked and to be and to Police Moscow right now there is love what are your thoughts youre smiling there. Right now the kremlin realigned that legitimates are looking very weak i dont think that there will be any. Any reelect tends to force look at the signing any roadmaps merger or political merger with russia but of course there will be a lot. In the psychological dialog between pushing them look because they are not on friendly terms and i think that at one point i would urge from good to see that this investigating crimes that the regime committed inside the country of course meaning that he must leave and this expression the transition period will be discussed. Between the woods and the location in some detail we will not be informed about that but surely the kremlin is interested in stopping in neutralizing this kind of. A protest and and conflict inside by the rules and he will not rather support look at the regime against the russian people be if you did does that then there will be many more go and die russian and i will just slow i saw on sunday last sunday many in fact which is no guns emerging in the streets there were not many but if there is a deal i think that there will be both russian protest would turn immediately and that russian and then i dont think that russian. Strategist would like to see that and a lot of this on the cough and moscow this is something that we keep the herring from mens from the people in minsk if there is any kind of right not a fluke stays with a promise something some point in the future he might go thats not going to be acceptable to the protest as an minsk so the kremlin has a real problem hey they can come up with the right amount but the roadmap might not be acceptable to the protesters and then what happens. Actually i think thats where i possibly agree with my scintillating who. Just or who criticized that one of them might be discussed discussing the discuss the negotiations between workers and in the russian president what ensued since about some kind of a transition period so i actually im really curious of sliding down yeah i could but the real problem because the more the situation continues i think in belarus the more problems it is creating not only for russia by case for our International Community as well as for you looking to museums or even for the United States so i think that for russia will try to probably just so just of itself as i meditate on negotiate helping in the goal she ate some kind of solution to the delegation crisis again im just radiating my heart as i said previously because theyre going to huge economic interest and financial interests of russia in the us yes love its interesting here we are in a situation where youve been living under lucas and his role now for what 26 years you know the president quite well from his look you know his public persona hes on the go anyway easily is he even if the russian suggests right now theres no guarantee that hes going to agree to it. There are people who can make influence him his family which is a factor that he considers the people who would been around his commercial schemes for many many years and of course people who may use guns another. Weapons all tools all what i call s. In metric persuasion a revolution to realize that now there is no more room for playing at pool with the Russian Federation the russian leadership and this is very critical for him to understand that for the 1st time he has not almost a border but there are some people the workers teachers doctors didnt you name it everybodys against and everybody is agenda is very simple so revisit to ation i think hes a goner and the he could just negotiate the terms of far right he is leaving the country a living that was isha and of course he would not like to see him or. Somebody who uses kalashnikov too should bag to those who would like to see him go up plenty of gypo sex and plenty of process still to go than thanks to all of gas jaroslav running chucked for america via choke and flight i missed something cough and thank you too for watching you can see the program again any time by visiting our websites out there dot com and further discussion got off ace for pace us facebook dot com forward slash a. J. Inside story and you can also join the conversation on twitter we are at a. J. Inside story from am on cohen and the entire Team Harrington and. Jump into the street and julian on Global Community this generation will have to create its own received with social media on and on line be part of the debate let me put some comments to you when no topic is off the table is taking on all the systemic islands that people of color have suffered not only now but for decades we all banks need to transform lives the way he could see it business if were going to adapt to climate break down this street on out is the. Free education for all was the promise the reality provoked a generation. To drugs enough blood to want to get on that forgot how a protest over education fees. Morphed into a national revotes that is dumb and i fear is the time its got. Everything must for. A witness documentary on aljazeera. Aljazeera. Every. Madison in doha the top stories on all jazeera 2 men who say they deserted from the miramar army are reported to have given confessions detailing mass killings and the destruction over in your villages theyre now said to be in the hague where they could provide a breakthrough for an International Criminal court investigation. Has covered the rangar crisis extensively and has more if these 2 soldiers are indeed giving these kinds of details to i. C. C. Investigators that could have a huge impact on a potential case its been well over a year now

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