Of the regional organizations to apply sanctions that aggravates the suffering of the population and the imperial spirits of man, african as im from 3 to refuse to apply these, the legal, illegitimate, and into main sanctions against the people of nisha, for one that any military intervention against and these, you wont be considered as a declaration of war against mccain of fast or n. Molly. As bahama, the person has been saying for the 1st time since the military sees control a photo of this, it was posted online by chevy and president. The juice, debbie he visited, initiates, and media between cooley does any else to the government. They have been violent demonstrations between police and supporters of senegalese officer. Surely that was when sancho opposite his political policy was dissolved on monday, he was fully charged with civil offences, including incisive insurrection as a high rise tell in most go that houses. 3 russian ministries has been struck by drawn for the 2nd time in a week. The Russian DefenseMinistry Says 2 other trends were shot down in the capital and what it calls an attack by keys. At least 11 people have died, an extreme rind for them. The Chinese Capital funds swept through by shang, following days of relentless ride from typhoid and ducks, or at least 16 people have been killed up to a crime collab set of construction size in india. It happens in the South Western States of my roster search and rescue operations underway to find work is trapped in the destruction. I so has claimed responsibility for sunday suicide bombing at a political rally and focused on at least 56 people were killed in the explosion. And dodger a little bit of the headlines and use continues of to counting the cost up. Next, we dont simply focus on the public, accept the conflict. Its the consequence of war, the human suffering death either for time. It is one of the most serious spouts of violence in recent years. We brave bullets involved because we give voice to those demanding freedom the rule of law. And we always include the views from all sides, the hello and serial, then yay. This is counting the cost analysis 0, your weekly look at the world of business and economics. This week he waves the war and ukraine and export bands on a central staples. The threats to global Food Supplies are piling up. Will that lead to higher prices and more hunger also this week . Oil supplies are tightening, and prices are creeping higher or market starting to turn in opecs favor after a series of production costs. A lack of fuel, a lack of food, and a lack of money to buy basic goods to vice. Turning to an old ally, russia to help ease its economic crisis. The sporting temperatures ravaged funds from the us to china, russia quite a deal that allowed the safe passage of ukrainian grain exports through the black sea. And ukraine says moscow and its green silos and bond export routes. On top of that, in the band, some rise shipments to keep domestic prices in check threats. The global Food Supplies are rising once again, and its fear that they will raise costs and worst and hunger across the world. Fenton monahan reports on the situation in lebanon, and chad for the wheat harvest season is almost over. Farmers say they have little choice, but to bolster production because of left knobs economic crisis, and the rise and global food prices do use the word ukraine. But the country is far from producing enough to meet local demand. Said beyond can i hit the in the past . The percentage of farmers who grew weeds was around 40 percent. Now its more than 70 percent. If we get more support, we would be able to grow much more. It is an expensive business, especially since less than on imports, almost everything and local currency last were the 95 percent of its value to nearly bankrupt government as promised to support production by providing seats a low price in the we face a lot of the challenges to be able to invest in orlando, we are poor. We need dollars to bypass designs. Thats why the government should support the cnn web and on wants to end its dependents on imports. But theres a long way to go. In chad, the war and ukraine is also disrupt supply chains and made existing problems even more difficult to manage. Fatima diode is replanting our farm after the previous crop failed. Its been weeks since there was any significant rain, full appointment for the. The rains were best and last year at this time, i fear this could mean to harvest was farmers here say the lose more crops if they dont see more rain. But thats not the only problem that i see in the monday at the, even when the rains come, we like the necessary tools to cultivate crops. Seeds are beyond our reach. With each passing year, the area of cultivated land and chad shrinks. As the fact of Climate Change becomes more severe that jeopardize the jobs of 20000000 people. And many are going hungry with 1000000 suffering from malnutrition, all made worse by disruptions to Food Supplies from abroad. Bins and mulligan for counting the cost. And joining us now from cape town is peter t jacobs. Peter is a Research Director at the Inclusive Economic Development division and the Human Sciences research council. Youre joining us from cape town. Peter is good to have you on the program. Do you see a scenario where the ukraine green deal could be revived . Or do you think the world just needs to adjust now to a reality where its just harder for ukraine to explore his grand a . Good morning. Yeah. Prospect school the green deal to be revived. A really very slim at this point because they have been a lot of other people. And in the meanwhile, im one of the developments as you, while aware, all these, the current 2nd africa, russia summit in moscow. And this will result in, i think, the continuation of for the escalation of a transfers of food brains between russia and ask because of an african countries and other forms of food to support for african countries. The brain to us boys being very controversial. And one of the most controversial aspects of the grain deal according to recent estimates as being that to this being a differentiation. All the benefits from Different Countries of different regions of the world, from the grain do. Some estimates suggest that between 60 percent and 2 thirds of the green exports actually went through the go global north into europe. Specifically. Whereas a small number of countries into one of asked me to put example of benefits from to bring deals with. Its not being an even distribution of the benefits of the grant deal. Well peter, that come down to the get you to address that because that is exactly the criticism that vladimir put in his leveled at this grand deal. He says, look, this has been a lie all along. It was supposed to help alleviate the, the suffering and, and Food Insecurity of the most vulnerable people. But actually, africa has only been getting a tiny fraction of the grain from ukraine, europe, getting the lions share of it. Can you, can you help settle that debate for us . The positive aspect of the great deal, and this is a very, very profound estimate or an important estimate. Hes, that the grain deal has helped to moderate grain. Uh, price is a serial price is a, across the world to moderate. The increases at the producer level all of these prices because it is allowed, one of the key brand baskets of the world, both in terms of grain exports but also because of foot logic sports. Its cruel ukraine. To have a lawyer, the, the price is old grain and the estimates they anywhere between roughly 14 and 15 percent of global prices over the last 3 months have really declined quite substantially. Dean 0 grains as a result of the black sea grain initiative. Remember, the withdrawal of russia from the initiative only took place fairly recently. And so to spend a brief export, the july process to be looking at was basically as a result of the initiative that has been in place for several years. So this being a, the positive impacts of the grain deal at the producer level of Producer Prices of these they felt weighed. I think the, im even distribution from my, you know, point of view. Okay. Uh, but if we had both together, i think it would it be in a much bigger benefit. I have mentioned already the background of the car and some of thats happening in moscow. And this summit, im sure hes going to continue the distribution or distribution, the range of 2 distribution arrangements between moscow and 7 applicant countries. A how the panel we, we, we cannot see and were at f as at this moment. Peter, Something Else i want to put on of yours radars. There are other factors that are weighing on food security, food in security as it were a globally and talk to us about number one. The in the ban on rice exports and number 2, the heat waves that were seeing just the weather conditions that are making it harder to grow crops at the moment. One of the key beneficial benefits that we getting from the harvesting event thats happening in, in the we to harvesting in the global south as being in the back to the very good for example, the knots in teen, in these countries. We will, they have been able to export quite a bit of the grains august 15th this particular season. And they need the global most. But we, we now see the big extreme effects of global warming. And the impact of, uh, you know, Climate Change on Food Production could capacity the worst scenario i think is panting out there. Its not what the story can be expected as just fuel droughts, but weve always been aware of the importance of, of mob scale fires and, and these are fires have a really devastating in destroying large numbers of, of cups and across are the major producing regions. The indian situation is very, very important. Why . Because i think a lot of the arrangements in the, in the rice exports in africa for instance, the south africa and in Southern Africa broadly, theres been a heavy dependency on rice exports from india and other countries. Not since a stop at the war, even before the black sea, granite, east of k mean. There was a kind of a tendency towards food nationalism as, as it was for different time. And unfortunately, this has resulted in countries, especially companies that have historically has advantages inception cups such as rice, india being the case in point of being saying, while arguing that it is more important to secure the Food Consumption of our own country, randa then you know, to step in to compensate for picking pick up the war, increasing increasing exports. But there been other factors. I think that that also works in the situation at the moment to effect as specifically i think theres been a lot of disruptions to a Global Transportation networks. And this is affecting negatively on the transportation of food on the global scale. But the lot of the countries have also been affected by severe difficulties in affording purchase as a full, full purchase of inputs. As a result of inflation, the depression is and, and the debt the, the global debt situation is as made. The scenario, you know, a lot of companies, extremely adverse and extremely bad. Peters who look at all these threats that are worsening food and security around the world. Is there something that the International Community in your view should be doing that it isnt currently doing . There are initiatives at the United Nations level that i think we, we have to look at the re carefully and how to strengthen some of those United Nations level initiatives. The in the, the United Nations to finish because they are really about the delivery of sufficient food through the World Food Program and other agencies to countries in the global south. Especially with these as a, to the situation needs to be extremely severe. And we look at the latest state of fluid insecure to report that just came up and was launched in the beginning of this month, where weve had an addition of a 122000000 people across the board has to be able to view the food and secure i the last the yeah, and this is an extreme situation. Of course, we know that it is the, the compounding impact of both a war uh that, that the end and uh, the stove, the estimates of the quote but 1919 pin pandemic. So we, weve got to have interventions at all levels virtually at the Global Global level, the key area in the global initiatives. I think these, the you and support for climate interventions that will ensure that the Food Production capacity of countries become more stabilized. This, i think, will be one of the most important initiatives at the global level. Ready that the cost must, uh, you know, around the, around its pool. Peter t. Jacobs. Thank you so much for your time. Great to talk to you today. Its a pleasure to take you by the people supplies low to keep prices as high as possible. Thats been the strategy of the Worlds Biggest Oil ex borders who have been cutting out put gradually since last year, but theyve been concerns about weak demand inflation. And theres been on certainty about the global economy. Until recently, markets largely shrugged off the cuts the opec plus alliance had had little luck in pushing oil prices up. Now though, there are signs that the supply cuts are paying off for them. The worlds benchmark Brent Crude Oil surged above 80. 00 a barrel last week for the 1st time since april and Goldman Sachs expects prices to rise even further. Early last year prices rose to more than a 130. 00 a barrel after russian invaded ukraine. Analysts say saudi arabia wants relatively High Oil Prices to balance its budget and fund and ambitious development program. So saudi has been leading the Oil Production costs that now amount on paper to nearly 5 percent of global supply. In october last year, opec plus cut output by 2000000. 00 barrels a day. Its biggest cut, the output since the end of the pen demik. That angered the us, which was pushing the group to boost production in order to help ease prices. Several months later, the alliance agreed to slash output again. Unexpectedly, the move in april pushed price is up to more than 84. 00 a barrel, but price is soon different again. So saudi arabia announced a unilateral cut this time to output by another 1000000 barrels a day that began in july. It recently extended that through august to and russia also now is new, carves on oil exports after much delay. Moscow is crude traded last week, above a price kept set by western nations. Joining us from london is edward gardner. Edward is the commodities economist at capital economics. So edward oil prices have been rising for 5 weeks consecutively. Now whats driving that . So or prizes in prison from around and 75. 00 to borrow the sausage. That amounts to about 84. 00 to buy on today. The reason for the the price increases most the supply. So the supply coats the gradually taking place since october last year. I have continued to constrain the markets and we think that constrains supply from a bag coupled with stronger demands from china, things to its economic reopening and the end 0 coded and resilient demand and developed economies such as the us all contribution to market participants, expecting a time for oil market and the coming months. So from all sides we focused of the Global Oil Market will be in a deficit in the 2nd half of this year, slipping from a surface in that 1st off of the yes. And in large part of that, its due to Strong Demand in us on her arms at the moment. 20000000 barrels today, which was down slightly from last year. Its still close to the record high. Its 21000000 bounce the day in the early 2, thousands and thats at the time of Rising Interest Rates for the better the raising the interest strikes and chinas reopening has led to increased refinery through. But through the 7 june, we had a nearly 15000000. 00 Barrels Per Day of crude oil being or 5 in china, which is the 2nd highest on rap on. So the combination of Strong Demand on lowest supply, some pads and some improvement incense when contributions to the increase price of the saudi production cuts and the most significant that theyve been in, in 5 years. Do you expect that to continue . So you rank, it would rather see the oil price, stay steady, steady and have a full rob at the potentially rise to saw. So we wouldnt be surprised is the starting rate here extend that its fine to into september. But, but from a market balance estimates, we dont actually think that its necessary. Um, we do still already expect the oil market to be in a deficit. And the 2nd half is yet, which should put us or the, or the price by itself. Talk to us a little bit about this specific situation that russia finds itself in because europeans impose a cap on the price of russian oil, except, except the russian oil is now trading above that cap. So that, does that mean . Now we know the conclusion is that didnt work. It doesnt necessarily mean the price competence was the fact that brushes crude oil in, in europe can, can sell for more than 60. 00 to borrow. Now. Means that to actually move that crude old russia will have to use known western Financial Services and logistics. And if we really think about what the motif off the product was from the very beginning, it was to limit rushes for revenues and not necessarily deprived the market of crude oil supply. So in that respect, if we do see where she continued to move crude oil even, um, even when the crudo a product as opposed to 6 dont about cars. And, you know, what we could see is versus still having to pay quite quite high amounts of money to, to sort of make these num, weston and provided movements. Soft spots, crude oil, and not crude cuts into its oil. Revenue was still to find the market with, with the bottles that is, is much needed. Higher oil and gas prices are a major concern for the us president ial buying. And we know that us presents, especially when theyre going into the election year. They tend to want to keep the price of way low. Do you think the us has much leverage over this . Well, so we sold last year and that the u. S. Degree to the Strategic Petroleum is us by an order of magnitude is around 200000000 barrels. And now the s b, i still is a significant assets that the us has assets disposal. I think its still contains around 4 to 500000000 barrels that says cruise. Um, so if need be, the us could still deployed crude or from that reserves. And if there was the price way to, to rise to concerning the high levels. But as things stand, thats not really something that has been indicated by the us government. If anything, do you estimate as towards about starting to replenish its s t off in the coming months, so it would be a bit to the, to use and really to start to see torque as the us using is s t all which is main. Assets who come oil prices if necessary, in the coming months. Edward, thank you so much for educating us on the ins and outs of the uh, an oil prices, and would gardener there from the commodities economist, the capital economics. Thank you very much. Thank you. The cube is economic crisis is among the worst since Fidel Castros and 1959 revolution. Many cubans are struggling with severe shortages and fuel food and medicine. They are leaving the island in record numbers in search of a better life. The government is opening the country to Foreign Investment to help revise veiling economy, but it says there is no quick fix to its financial problems. And its now turning to its old friend, russia to help ease the crisis. Moscow has recently signed several deals with the island, including oil and wheat supply, sugar production, and torres and facilities. As part of the agreements, cuba has agreed to open its doors, the russian investors, and banks. Meanwhile, china has reportedly pay billions of dollars to cuba and exchange for the right to build a secret spying facility on the island in cuba is economy grew by nearly 2 percent last year. But the island nation is producing far fewer food staples than it did a few years ago. Of joining us from barcelona in spain is hired on new go condo, dean of the college of communication, at the university of sharia and a latin america analyst. Sir, what do you blame for this crisis . Is it just the sanctions on cuba as economy, or is it brought in and that, oh, i mean, or frankly speaking, its a system that has been unable to be so successful, obtainable in texas for since the beginning, the beginning of the russia all the big i can started by see the cost all back in the 19 sixties and seventies to increase and improve to production, failed but and basically the cost of change on was 1. 00 particular crock, which was sugar which day and exported to the soviet block about time. And they got heavily subsidized, dr. Stuart, the whole of productive agricultural, just as sector in, in cuba. So i system the productive system. People have never been efficient enough to sell to be soft, reliable on their own food, and as always be dependable. The crisis accelerated 90 in the not at the beginning of the 1990 because of the collapse of the soviet union. And that stop the massive subsidies they, they, that the given a government used to get and which allowed them to put fluid at the bottom. Uh, i mean the situation there was some opening and they started in for 2 foot from the United States, but uh, and they still do by the way, but uh that obviously after uh, the trunk came to power. Stop. And uh, what were seeing is, is a system that is unable to produce and an image on the for the people need. Now the government has implemented some changes. It has opened up cube is economy to, for an investment, to some degree and encourage small businesses. Are you seeing the impact of that . Well, its not enough because if there be, its not always thats been payments responses to the, to the crisis is not just 1991 since the what they call the video. The seller has special pete in, which is a pretty hard and peter for them at the beginning of the ninetys. But its not only that they put us not be that a to me, but they have been erotic. They once they implemented what a roku was, it was empower one of their ministers to try really, to modernize the economy. He was basically brought down very quickly by the gospel and also sides. And who knows, you know, what, what did they did to him up to what i mean . Anybody who has tried to tell the truth to the leaders and say, you know, this doesnt work right now theyre, theyre trying, again, uh and, and the good person to do some adverse over the phone. But again, can be on the control of the day. They, they open some areas for the private sector, particularly the National Investment areas like tourism, but like the spanish investor so has always been in cuba. They but again, its not, you know, they have them are starting to allow some. Busy an enterprise, its a big place, but again, its just not enough that people doesnt trust based on the long term. So the best number to let me is to modernize, is it going to be to be self sufficient . Im not going to come under this with you because of its past history and its, its what hes showing in terms of policy. They have turned to china and to russia for help. Do you think thats going to work as well to it is the only one who could help them, but is not that politically committed to add to rush. Of course, the chinese want the uh, aspire base which they are now developing in cuba. And which is not very highly sophisticated as a center which has the 3 doors and high tech devise to listen to the United States and, and that victims might get something in return. The russians are in no position to help anybody. The main help the cube, a daughter in the past 1015 years was from venezuela, and from who will chavez, when he was in power even today when visualizing complete die of crisis. And where the a gas oil uh, the petrol that is sold in venezuela sold us dollars in international price. The cubans are still getting a huge amount of oil from the newsletter. And so theres a big political the so again, its, its economizing clock. So their main helper is now not nowhere to, to, to, to, to be seen or to be able to cope with cuba in the way they used to one day in the past 1015 years. So the situation in the, in the, i mean its a difficult, again, i will have a very clear on that one thing that we need to recognize the queue and government is there receiving is they have been in very similar situations of the past. And theyve been able to survive. Now, i dont know the condo, thank you so much for all your insights again, and that is our show for this week to get in touch with us by tweeting me at vineyards. 0. Do use the hash tag a j c. T c, when you do order office, an email counting the cost of thousands, 0 dot net, thats our address. But theres more for you online at alices 0 dot com slash ctc. That will take you straight to our page, which has individual reports, links, an entire episode, speed to catch up on that sense of this edition of counting the cost times thermal venue from the whole team here in doha, thank you for joining us. The news is next on else is the korean just on the differences and similarities of cultures across the world. So no matter how you take it will bring you the news and current to fast that matter. To you, calling attention to any quality pollution meant extra disease. Ok. And county is low income communities site. One brother was killed by police. The dentist that we say is but the one past one day an organizer on the rapper. How old are these people from the begun supplementing buffer, then it has someone not to be put on the bus that able gorbinko who brought in generation change. Can you change . Hes coming is no doubt about it on a busy to until mccrae and how these are the top stories on al jazeera, the lead is picking a faster. And molly, say any military intervention and neighboring new shit would be considered a declaration of war against them. It comes off to regional block, the code was student may authorize force to reinstates new. She is also the president mohammed bassoon, following last weeks code on the progress on the book them up for to do monday the transitional government. So it became a fest