Other welcome to the program. Im adrian sending an libby as late as such and violent seems to have settled down. But it once again underlines the countries instability. Theres deep concern internationally about this weeks on rest and which dozens of people were killed and many more injured. The African Union and western governments. According for peace, conflict and deep divisions, assisted since more, im a good off. He was overthrown 12 years ago. So whats next for libya . Can the divided nation ever be re United States . What will it take to restore peace . Well discuss all this with a guest and just a few moments, but 1st a report from car leg on the latest 5. Its an easy come on the streets of tripoli, days of to the work fighting any yeah. Between rival sections in libyas capital. Dozens of people were killed and more than a 100 injured, a truce to cold off to one side. The special to terence force released this man must mood comes a military commander from the full 4 full brigade group. Analysts say hes an important figure in the battle for control of the country. The groups, the 2 of many involved and the stop start conflict thats place libya about exactly since the native back some of both the top of a long time lead. Ive heard mama duffy in 2011 unified in one of the countries currently split between the u and recognized government of National Unity headed by Prime Minister abdul. How much the out the paper in the west and another in the east, back by one or can be for half the ad on the to rival administrations compete for power through shifting alliances within the groups on the ground debate but has issued an apology and wound against further violence who has not to be mad, i apologize to the mothers father, sisters, and brothers who lost their children. Really apologize to them. All of us, libyans are not satisfied with what happened and we will not be satisfied with it. We will not be silent until we stop this matter, but 3 is often libyas warring fights agreed on a permanent ceasefire and what the un, cold and historic achievement, it seems, theres still no sign of the lasting political solution. Car leg inside story. Well, as you had, the libya has to rival administrations, heres a look at who controls was in the west, including the capital tripoli, the internationally recognized government, the National Unity. As in paul, its led by Prime Minister of those how many of the pay, but that is backed by the when it controls the area in purple, on the back, in the east wall, or how do you feel have to, is in power supported by a parliament into brook, he controls the areas in orange, his self styled army is backed by russia, the United Arab Emirates of egypt. And the rest of the country showed in great is under the control of all the armed groups. A little later. As one of the fighting and tripoli was between 2 powerful groups, both backed by the un recognized government, the full full, full brigade is affiliated with the defense, but a street that is reputed to be libyas most disciplined. It controls the Southern Suburbs of tripoli, other areas, the special, the parents force is an ultra conservative group that acts as the capitals police force. It controls central and eastern tripoli and the air force. All right, lets get to, i guess, joining us all at us out. Go see who is the front of the director of the Civic Institute before its public policy, think tank and libya for me to run through it with joint by e. My body of nonresident senior fellow, the middle east programs of the atlantic council, from san antonio, texas, were joined by non so l q, q, whos a professor of politics at the university of texas, san antonio, and regularly visits libya for research work. Gentlemen, welcome to old and asked, lets start with you. Whats the base between the full 4 full brigade and the special determines forces . Why with the left. So i have a rest as a kernel from the full 2 is my food times a as well. Then as a base, as you, but it is down to a number of Different Things in the context is going to be critical here. But its a mixture of minutes. Show rivalries, you know, and strategic bottles of acute territory and to be a and this backdrop, the tool context into the where the heavy maam is not for several months of by internal talks between the government and tripoli, loved by have enough time to pay the 75. 00, so there was right, i mean, theyre always going to be tough, 1000 rivalries. And if you have me, it was initially just dismissed as, as run of the mill. You know, administrative, beef and tripoli about the territories of, of fighting over isnt some of the most valuable real estates when it comes in terms of the Strategic Ministry and supply lines and logistical roads. Into tripoli, the gates of tripoli, thats in 2019. How theyve often launched as offensive from its also the, the, the, the, the supply routes that were used by the rival administration that was set up in 2020 to the governor of national stability. And today, thats over the last few days as being the scene of that is of those why. The reason i think is curious the timing of this backdrop where there have been tools to the, for the new enter and government between up to, for me that i, that coming up after that kind of political deal is, you know, just splitting up the cake box which of the on groups will remain in tripoli, who controls the valuable real estate. Possibly that that has been able to spiral this discussion and the most valuable real estate is the Old International app that is looking for be launched or re launched in the next several months. Which is in the south of tripoli. Im going to move the center of gravity from my ticket, apple, where the sd of the, the 1st script, the rest of the kind of model comes out and introduce that would move the center of gravity and influence in the capitol towards the science and an area that the full full traditionally cool that the stronghold, and its an area that they have been trying to negotiate with the government of national, easy over that control for the future. So its a mixture of all those different rivalries, much more problems that should be said. Theres also a lot and as you have to figure out hes been involved in some of these joint middle principles. And ive been led by the un over the last year, 2 years. And he has made his, his opinions quite clear about his position over half the when the funding was getting very insensitive of the last few days. We heard of rumors of different on goods coming from the start coming from different pockets around the country. Many of him are also, if you have to, if it goes and it is thought the spiral from one of those top bottles and so about that look like it was going to be a repeat of, of tweeting ive seen. So i think its, its curious, timing, imap, what, what do you make of it the or do you agree with with us the same groups clashed in may this year by the time they were injuries, but no deaths. This time, last year, 32 people were killed in aaa, one groups. I lied to the, the, to rival administrations for this. This weeks violence of bear any similarity to that or, or as i was saying, is this just part of a tough war . And its complicated, i think, yeah, you can not disclose the things from the political context and the overall thing, dynamic, etc, at a National Level. However, in terms of these classes and in particular, i think theres no direct cause the link between what is what was happening at the National Level in terms of dialogues and positions on softer and on his son. Sometimes on negotiations with the governor of national unit, these Prime Minister, how many debates on his relatives, i do think that there are much more local tripoli, triple obtain, in dynamics that play as in western living dynamics that play in terms of the input. Those for these classes in particular the for, for, for brigade had, has had tensions with the sd of, for quite a long time. No, not just because of the airport or the triple International Air board opening, etc. But also because the very fact that with hands that was formerly a commander of the us, the and effected from the sds, effectively after the tripoli war established quite successfully. Some may argue his own by his own brigade, but no controls. Strategic territory has carved itself a role, not just in terms of security enforcement, but political dialogues, etc. I wouldnt say that any of the players in western libya right now have a very clear the and the foster stands. I think a lot of them actually are pretty much looking at marginalizing opponents, vanquishing them, absorbing them in some cases. And this is both of both the case for the as the, the special, the transport, and more times the maybe the only fact maybe the only fact that differentiate more times as group is the fact that its footprint does indeed extend beyond aaa. So as opposed to the mazda supp around the most groups in west or libya, it has several branches in quite strategic cities like venue, where the like, that are going to and he has even had a, its on patrol, so the bench with foot cetera. So you clearly see that its an encroaching on areas for addition to the, the are and the point of view of the triple opinion, goods or western concludes from western libya. And so i think that is, has partly played into the tensions with the sds, and thats what, thats what part the, the, the glasses now, this isnt the discount. The fact that these pensions in the now kind of clear cut rivalry between these 2 groups will not be a politically and whether nice, by other actors, they can leverage those pensions but, but in terms of a causal link, there wasnt anything there yesterday that lends itself to this adjustment that base was the sort of conspiracy of or, or gets paid by anyone in the back or months or given what, what he met his just said, what does it say about the state of, of the country the here you have to on the functions vying for influence and control open losely a piece that kept the piece for the last year, and yet they can fight each other with a heavy weaponry in a densely populated area of the captive, the capital city. As i say i, i want to commend this gentleman. The 2nd one little sympathy said because i think he had his rights on, on the head. And the head is very, very right. It is not really so much tied to politics as much as the type, the majority of the tubs to yeah. You have. Oh yeah, that will. Between songs in tripoli, this is, this is new. Its been going on the, on the page really, what do you mean . What do you to page 1010. 00 page company if its just tough areas within, within the west, this is causing much of this its, its a huge problem. So going to go when youre driving, so its been going on for 446700 years. You know, im Getting Better getting something for a while, but know too much again, with each side having the issues you have, you have the issue. Youre having the how many minutes just to have the police say, you know, the department is the baby can go to the and then you can go to resolve. Yeah. You cannot go there as a Prime Minister in those areas. What you was okay for security because he has no control over the yes it is. This is a big part of the fragmentation to say face of take it back today. Is there a time for any type of unity in the country . I mean basically i think that is up to come to the realization that perhaps the not meant to be together. And so what is that . Im sorry to say that, but this is the reality on the graphs so, so, so thats all you know. Do you think that you think that the libya is perhaps destined to, to, to split, to, to, to be 2 separate countries that but theres no hope for united libya . Im sorry to say that. I think this is where they said they would be going to knock for 12 years and this, and this and the more and the more it goes off, the more this concept here is reinforced. I dont know when people are sure. I know its sort of make at least its a huge movement. Building a new merge right it up, whether its in full or those in favor with the 3 mountain that is really beginning to pay a full separation, a good own way. Cuz in the middle of this we, we, i mean, this is whats happening. You have the store full between subs in the, in the, in the west. This is going to take the, to choose a country. And so im going to happen any more money. But the specs as well true if this difficult not the im not home in the see the most of us that we havent this data as well to up to doesnt set another good guy. The more you know, you think that she wasnt sure whether its one time a whole and i told that going to typically that she would in fact bring things together. Again. Gnosticism sydney, this is the office unbelievable. I dont. Uh, what does this you want more in the future except bring the country together, you know, like, no, no, no, he wants spa probably does cut off enough to do the follow up. Does captain correct . Absolutely. No doubt about back as to what a joy to come in on. On that date, the head of the African Union voiced great concert over the sizing and said that there is no military solution. Will it be in crisis in the countries unity based abilities of historic International Stages can only be regained by peaceful means. Hes wise of course, but how can it ever happen . Well, i think, i mean, both of us already pointed to the issue that needs these groups, whether the rest of the east, where they called himself an, i mean, a pretense, i mean, i mean, or whether theyre in the west and theyve called themselves revolutionary revolution was a long time ago. So for the most part there are criminal, this criminal intent, a certainty autonomy to do what they want to do when they want to do, and for him, they want to do that for him. But i want to whitewash all of these pictures, not all the on groups the that not on the on groups the full over the last 10 years have just come into many or just fearful of going back to the years that were rolled. Im thinking definitely that one of the time some of drew, i certainly believe an uncertainty conscious of the fact that much more times a and is engaged with the 5 plus 5. I mean, the last several months has made those points. I started, i think that hes the only one that i think is a good example of someone that has made us point is part of the infrastructure. But the reason what theyre doing is that the Foreign Ministry starts us with the color and millishape break up. I believe, yes, they have a play. Nivia is not compatible with the unified states. So im not compatible with a democratic slide because im not neutral. Supp, serbian bodies that will serve an elective government. That being calibrated to be controlled by the Police Officer and the he store of time in the, in the west or whichever political entrepreneur. So as this happened to the card, they need to start from the building block. And the solution that youre asking for really, is to destroy and disrupt, or the very least try to reform these bodies. But the reality is that youre going to get anywhere unless you try to disrupt these buttons to apply them together. City, state militias in the cities that months old was mentioning the areas that i might have been talking about, but each burial, each part i thought of tripoli itself was a great a triplet, tiny, a re, is controlled by the shots. That is not, that is not consistent with, with the kind of army in neutral surfaces of Security Services that would be compatible with the like the government. And if we think of it that way, they want to be compatible with governments that are appointed by these. But is it going to, bernard, is that you want to start from, from a really, im not the listing. The button is idealistic because the u, as in trying to work towards the end of trying to is in a scratch the surface clean and start with a fresh mutual military force and a neutral police service. Its working with what its already got. Its working with got groups, the sympathies are in the agencies and its trying to calibrate them towards these leadership. And thats not going to work in the long run front of us. So i would certainly say that, but i think putting your finger on the pulse, the responsibility now is on to you and to build the architecture for that. So not politicize is military tracks that are the kinds of unified 2 different groups that are not consistent with each other. The 2nd does that you cant. Busy bring them around an a point of government that would be a 7th of the last decade. It doesnt need that. It needs an electric government to and often in the bins are waiting for that. And in terms of, of separation, i would catch that on there also and the groups that, but whatever that they might know, its a groups. My son is now minority groups that have done this. I think its linked to the just the minister of our lives and tripoli. I mean, we shouldnt from it, we should. We shouldnt forget that the parliament in the east was burned down in some upright tests. And as the parliament that decides when or when we dont have elections based on the election laws based on the constitutional basis, the 2 most things that we can have elections. Everyone else is at the factor. But these are, these are the main structural causes that are impeding this progress forward. And as the i read it today that if we think that were going to get as the libyans in a personal capacity, or if you think that were going to get state heads for Eastern Libya or wisdom to be a good in line of un security. Again, so you have many, many groups, the 4 you might need even the end of the sequence and the best separate this might be a head of the libyans or dont have a national cause. When it comes down to what they ask for the groups, the screaming the loudest us for oil cost was switched to the main office. Busy busy we recognized nationally in a, its a lot of, its an indication that the International Community has actually failed. As far as libya is concerned. It is the outside world interested enough in libya. What more could should it be doing you being cases . Definitely one of serial failures of the, of the International Community. And a definitive case of you when i would say fabian multilateralism said youre overtime since says 20 since 2011 essentially. So its been a downward trends in a spinal spiraling trend for people there into violence. I would single out the, the chair and the doctor, the special records on that the, the secretary general as be i would what i would call diplomatically a very complacent, in terms of how this mediation has gone next. If any, over the political process, the political process now is in shambles, there is absolutely no direction to it that you, when is a, its main main talking point is displayed towards the cost of board of elections with little to no actual about the, i guess. But i, i just want to point point out that even, i mean hes not here to defend himself here. So i mean, i want to make that, that, that point clear, but yes, carry on. Absolutely. But i do think hes been in listening mode far too long. So you clearly see him doing field visits and actually doing some of the work that would pave the way for something. But every time you wait on actually something to be formalized in a dial up to be institutionalized. There hasnt been much there. So, and that leaves the, the country to be preyed upon by the, for the very forces that were talking about here in the military actors. The political interpret noise that dont have the countrys best interest at heart. So its no surprise that none of them are really supportive of actual election. And as a band i suffered because for the past 10 to 12 years, they dominate the, the, the scene. And they know that people are fed up with them. In most cases, i need for the parliament in the High State Council and some of the controversial figures and that they would never be voted that. So its, its a very honestly frustrating cycle for a month for a lot of people. And now the bar is so low that they are very happy with a small, like very basic things. The very, very basic stability and very artificial stability is that the current government is, is, is providing or the government of National Unity. However, the stability as pointed out by these classes can sometimes be in the loop because what with this government is, is doing is its essentially attempting to recreate duffy system, revenue distribution, a lot of handouts, a lot of a social safety. And thats a lot of patriots, not the patronage structures a lot of corruption, but its trying to recreate that with a very different Security System with no monopoly on. But so you have these tensions that will ultimately erupt between the groups, particularly in western libya. But this is as valid for western living as it is for Eastern Libya, because i do think that in Eastern Libya, tensions between a private controls or structures in the east are very much there with the governing structures. From a security standpoint, i. E, heavy for how far and his sons, therefore, yeah, this illusion of stability has to, at some point on arrival. And the con, rambling will unfortunately be violent if there is no meaningful political direction for or in house that, for people to actually discuss, cast their votes ideally, and they liked who they want. And this isnt the say, the elections will be a policy either. They need to be properly regulated. There needs to be an accompanying particularly security bind in order for them not to be re. Wed also want to end up in a 11 unlike scenario where we have arm Group Leaders and relatives as long as we have selected. Okay, i, i will come on to election suggested by the 1st month. So i just want to the question i put to you at the, on its head, when i said, is the outside world interested enough in, in, in libya and all that actually, to many people middling and live benefits at the moment. We mentioned uh, fraud, steve, a russia, uh turkey. I mean the other just the just too many people uh, missing in libby and a fast a yes. The for the, with the out of had this out of the, among, out of the buckles in them. And i mean, they, the different get against the, the sylvia, the unsolved is against the junction. There. Its unbelievable the same thing with libya. What, what does it all have to do with the what to do that . Ill tell you, i mean you, after a really buddy perform the question and this is that you wouldnt be the best player in. Yes, i think it would be the move of that to me. Not being United Nations and the prosecutors a whole really i like uh i called them but, but my put my tongue, put them is that if you marry my mother, i told you dad, in this case, no, as long as i have a government that i can talk with doesnt matter what kind of government is this, it can be to the 2nd to do it. This is mrs. Flores, this is an overall way of looking at things. I mean, i was just an accomplice the sometime ago, a Stephanie Williams junior and i hired relation to say, we have to have elections. Thats whats having elections. I want to have a, we have a Service Coming and coming power. I mean, the bank has no quarter the gauges to be a prime is up to the be what do you want the model number 23. It is the same. I mean you have the tools for the key. No, no this. Theres no sense that this belongs to me just as i killed a bunch of numbers. Dont care about why they actually did not do that either. So what does that asked the when had hoped that much delays elections could have been held this year due to the relative stability in the country. Is there any chance of that happening anytime soon . Do you think the rules of the game of rigs in this election because the system itself has been rig so allows for these dr. Appalling names that continue to claim that arrivals, but has conspired the spot conflict despite compet of to, despite what many of oblivious conflicts of looked like. All of these different enemies didnt come together in the end. It was a benefits, not just friends with the benefits that individual difficult to be. Individual benefits, somebody, they should have the spoils and they continue to allow you to, to run around this married, go around with the illusion that because they called i agreed to elections that they call it happened. But it wasnt going to have a unit. The government was quite curious if it can unify the interest when it comes to sharing the spoils of war with the economy into further interest when you have to let go a power. That is, that is the, the irony of the case today. And i think when it comes to the libyans malick, its quite interesting that was a poll done by doing research at the end of 2021, towards the, towards the deadline. And the 24th of december elections. And the so interesting the, i dont know if i got 14 percent, they got more than most of the candidates that said they, i guess ill go ahead and apply them and go one of the office on less than one percent. Rather for the short of the strong men of the west. So more than 100 percent for the for half the despite control. Busy decent libya and running, and then everyone starts to get more than a certain percent. Thats the irony to all of these individuals know. Even if they were to stand for elections with enough time, they wouldnt get cost as far as so i think maybe in the desperate for a choice to move forward. But the system is written against. Okay. And then you went into the system to direct against them. Its a shame. All right, i have a very quick concept for you. Im from you, but i, weve got about a minute left. Im in no elections any time soon as i, i agree essentially there wouldnt be any elections any time soon. I talked about this because of what time was mentioned in terms of the system being would. What is worrying, however, is the increase and i would say the level, the both the on groups and the politicians now now living a lot of the links that existed between the on the arm groups where at some point close at the civilians the day with these types of glasses that you see with that we use of heavy weaponry, et cetera. You click, do you see that, that those links are sub, have been separate to even in the areas where there, that were revolutionized bongo because are all right, thats okay. Months of that final question to you, the libyans have any cause for hope right now that that, that things will get better hope is always there, but it seems continues to be, oh, nothing else. I mean give you the situation on the ground. I dont see much feature anymore. This is, im sorry to say this, but this is the reality. Its, oh no, im wrong, nothing, nothing reason to just see the country come together. But now with the countries changed for, its for the, for 2 years that the previous dictator had that that already spent. And now we pay is due. Okay . And this is, this is what we have gentlemen, that weve offended Manufacturing Day to. It will on us a democracy in my body and months. So l t, shell even see the program again at any time by going to the website at all, just 0 dot com for the discussion. Join us about Facebook Page at facebook dot com, forward slash ha. Inside story out of course you can join the conversation on x fully notice twitter. Handle of a inside story from me, adrian said again of the team here and though. Huh, thanks for watching. Well see you again the the inspirational winning. We wanted to gather the largest number of young women and showed that entire nearing performers was the 1st to mail the, the painting. Jordan otc. Were well celebrate females and taking traditional outage in a new direction. They go on stage, its motivates other girls to join citizen. So jordan then egypt pon outages here, the latest news as it breaks up the sun later, right the same from different pops up the rally with d to coverage. After the government signed up, he said we met with a foreign millions of hex. Theres problems in this area where this toy from the around the world. Margaret, do think youre gamble when they 1st talk in these over crowded rick, if you both on but just say such a long journey. The. The hello im sam is a then this has been use live from the whole coming up in the next 60 minutes. By a means of the level constitutional or that will be restored in the country. West African Defense cheese discuss the cooling, the shell saying theyre ready to use full
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