Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Surveillance 20240622

On the revenue side, it was a very small miss. It came in at 5. 93 billion, the estimate was for 5. 94 billion. Adjusted earnings per share 1. 54 again. Tom that is a lot of pizza. That is a lot of pizza at 5 00 p. M. Brendan i will show you the two numbers you need to know. Highspeed data net addition 172,000. Vonnie the estimate was for 98,000, so that is actually a beat. Brendan yep. Vonnie looking for the call to develop what management is thinking about, or charter and the measure. Tom there it is on time warner cable. We will get you started and go to the fed. First, our top headlines with vonnie quinn. Vonnie if that is dropping hints there is almost enough improvement in the job market to start raising Interest Rates. Policymakers arcs rising satisfaction with progress toward full employment. They say they need to see some additional gains before the first rate hikes since 2006. Economists surveyed by bloomberg expect to raise rates by september. The first big break in the search for the malaysia boeing 777. Debris washed up on the French Island in the indian ocean. It is not clear whether the wreckage is actually from bat malaysian plane. It went missing in march of 2014. In cincinnati, a White University Police Officer has been charged with murdering a black man during a traffic. A body camera video show the officer talking to the man just before the shooting. Prosecutors say the Police Officer lied about being dragged by the mans car. Shares of facebook are falling in premarket trading. Investors may be concerned about expenses. Still, the number of users are 30 . They are spending an average of 26 minutes a day on facebook apps. We continue to get one out of every five minutes on smartphones in the u. S. , and mobile usage is driving our growth globally as well. Vonnie mark zuckerberg, facebooks ceo, once wall street to show some patientsce. He said the focus now is on expanding their user base. There is no crying in baseball or so the movie line goes, but in real life, emotions run high and they did as we saw last time. In the final hours before the trade deadline the phillies decided there was no point to keep one of the worlds best pitchers on one of the worlds worst teams. In new york, emotional on the field. Someone told the teams manager he was crying but after the game, the trade fell through, so i guess he was still crying. Tom i have never seen that. That is a first. Vonnie it was very sweet. Tom i am on my facebook app. Mohamed elerian, also brian may of queen is an astrophysicist now and is doing something on pluto. [laughs] that is on my facebook feed. Brendan when tom keene said Brendan Greeley is spending all of his time on facebook, what he really means is tom keene is running all the time on facebook. Tom i just think of waynes world when they are doing brian may in the car and queen. Futures flat euro weaker, dollar stronger is the main message, crude oil gets a bit of a big. On to the next screen before we talk about the twoyear yield. We will talk to Michael Mckee about that a lot. Gold, oil, gold up goal downld down. This is a blend of the emergingmarket currencies, the ruble, the mexican peso, and here is the new yellen reality which is central banker to the world. Brendan this rate hike has been so will broadcast, Everybody Knows it is coming. Are we going to see a bit of a disruption anyway in the emerging markets . That is what were waiting to find out. Tom is this in september, or is it get worser as we go through . Brendan worser . Tom it is a real word. I looked it up. 17th century. Brendan i think it shows a real worseningening. Tom september 17, 2 00 p. M. Yesterday brought an acute focus on s words some and solid. They stole the show. Michelle meyer was cool, calm, and collected in airconditioning. She looked at theses most singles the smoke signals. I want to go to Michael Mckee, but first, michelle, is this silly . Michelle i do not think it is silly, this is what we do it we examine every word and try to determine if they are signaling something. I think it was actually quite clever, they underscore the approval of the of market the improvement of the market and say they do not need that much more progress. Tom what is some . Mike we will not have much to talk about, and we will parse that word forever. It is what you think about september and the fed is too much what you thought about it in. If you look at that market board for the bond market, you can see janet yellen premuch has investors where she once them leaning toward september but not locked in. We get g we get these into repeated a, we get decent job reports. They can back off and not surprise. Tom critical points to the gdp numbers and on the jobs they august 7 do we get a break out of that twoyear litmus a paper if we get the gdp and good jobs . Do we shoot up to 1 twoyear yield . Mike i will not make a final production, but we will probably see higher yield if we get a stronger than forecasted gdp or stronger than forecast jobs. We are already looking at stronger gdp than the fed forecasted. Bloomberg consensus is two point 5 the fed was looking at roughly one point 9 , so you are already growing faster than i thought we would. Bloomberg consensus is 2. 5 , the fed was looking at roughly 1. 9 . Brendan what are you looking to find out . Mike you will want to hear from the participants in the fomc meetings what the increase they have got based on the data we do not know yet because you look at the calendar, and ordinarily you look at janet yellen, stan fischer or dudley no speeches, so there is no guidance to accept the data. Michelle will have the smartest interpretations at of all, but we want to know what they are thinking and how they interpret the number. Vonnie j. P. Morgan chase called this the battle of the some yesterday. A 10 drop in Unemployment Rate does that bring us above 300,000 . What is it . Mike it probably just means status quo, the jobless rate to go down a tick or so or stay where it is. This is probably more a sock to the hawks who would have liked to a gone earlier, but we see ok, we are very close with the message we are sending, and stand by for another month. Tom i want to go 35,000 feet widescreen here at bloomberg surveillance and in doing that, we go to Michelle Meyer. This gdp thing today is a big deal right . Michelle i think it is. The problem with the data that we are analyzing and realtime is that they are really realtime estimates. They get revised. This is one opportunity tom this is a revision. Michelle it is a benchmark gdp revision. Tom that is jargon, miss meyer. How far does is go back, world war ii . Michelle mike [laughs] only the korean war, tom. This makes a comparison between the Second Quarter and the First Quarter. Michelle it does. It means that First Quarter estimate is a lot more i am sorry, the first estimate but they could change the history, and if you look historically, the prior three years could be revised. Lets say you get the past three years revised higher, per se that is a different state of the economy. So things can change. One of the things that we know they are going to adjust is they are changing the q1 seasonal adjustment process to better control for the residual seasonality issues that will redistribute growth. There is a greater emphasis on gross domestic income which is interesting because it is another way of measuring activity in the economy. Tom it is usually more optimistic. Michelle lately it has, gap. Vonnie because a stronger dollar, that is why, right . Michelle gdp is a bit more from external factors, and i could be potentially creating a little wider trade deficit recently. I think what you see if you look at a broad basket of indicators, gdp has been softer than a lot of other indicators. Mike which brings up an interesting possibility because of a seasonal adjustment the benchmark revisions, the First Quarter is raised significantly, and we get a surprise negative in the Second Quarter. Michelle yeah. There is a lot of uncertainty heading into november. Tom i have got to rip up the script. Dupont with that dividend cut the other day, canada knows a, and Oil Company Just cut their dividend no surprise an Oil Company Just cut their dividend. Brendan we will go back to Michelle Meyer and her toward a question today is today the u. S. Economy . We have some twitter question today is today the moment of truth for the u. S. Economy . Good morning. Tom one, everyone. Tom good morning, everyone. It is not quiet for our top headlines. Vonnie senators vote on a big highways built before hitting the road for their revision. Their vacation. It is only a three month extension. If it does not pass, the Highway Trust Fund will run out of cash at midnight tomorrow. Selfies are helping drive profits at sony. The Japanese Electronics company oversold more video games and gaming consoles. Sony has lost money six of the seven last years. And in football, the nfls Players Union has filed suit against the league to overturn tom bradys fourgame suspension. The union says they were not given proper notice of the leaks disciplinary standards and he needed proper notice to tell him he was not allowed to destroy phones. Tom i cannot Pay Attention to the conversation i am on my facebook newsfeed, excuse me. Brendan facebook was up 82 in the Second Quarter. The operating margin narrowed as well. False when he is with us from Bloomberg Intelligence paul sweeney is with us from Bloomberg Intelligence. What are we waiting for . Paul were waiting for them to monetize these acquisitions, most notably whatsapp, instagram. Mark zuckerberg is telling us let us grow, let us get north of one billion users each, then we will start making money for you. I thought this seemed a little interesting. Brendan networks that have fewer than one billion users, is that just a dig at twitter, or are there economics to that . Paul a, it is a dig to twitter the wiis all earlier in the week its kind of stagnant but he is also trying to make the case to advertisers that listen, in order for social media plus one to be really need to be really big. That is a selfserving statement because facebook with one point 4 billion users is already big and is really getting a lot of attention. Tom i have been doing a lot of twitter and facebook to we talk about google biting twitter. And Natural Selection for facebook to acquire twitter and have the best of both worlds. To be that is a rational premium acquisition. Paul they very well could they certainly have the financial wherewithal, and you could argue that twitter given the most recent order, some of the resets with expectations, there is no permanent ceo at twitter, you could argue that is something that facebook look at that could consider. Facebook is saying i am not sure i need to buy. I think i can grow organically as well. 700 million users for messenger, so they are growing on their own. Tom i have seen facebook 19 time sales, twitter 12 time sales. Vonnie exactly. Why do they need to monetize things like instagram, whatsapp . I can understand they put in a Payment System and so forth, but is there an argument to be made that they do not need to get revenue from the other apps . Paul you are right, they grew their revenue organically 39 this quarter anyway, but the issue for investors is listen, you just bent 21 billion of my money buying whats up a couple years ago. I need to see a return on investment. The company is aware of that. They are saying we know what we are doing and we know the monetization can be through advertising or perhaps through ecommerce but let us build size, engagement, and then we will take it to market. Brendan i want to review summing from brian weser a pivotal research. They said this investment year they have so many initiatives that can contribute to growth. That is like a coach saying this is a building year. Does he have the trust to wonder into oculus and say it will make money eventually . Paul i think he does. The company has actually done what they said they will do, and the most notable example would be mobile advertising. We saw mobile ads spending 3 4 of total revenue from the company. That is up. We saw with google there comes a time you need to rein in spending and drive profit growth. Tom right. Do they have Pricing Power with their ad relationships . Paul it is really starting to look like when you think about be social or mobile advertising world in general, it is really a world of the house and have not. Haves right now are google and facebook. Those two Companies Control about half of all mobile ads spending. Tom it is like the cigarette business 20 years ago, they could control at prices. Who could complain . Paul rightr. T. One could argue there is a lot of room to grow. Tom we did not even talk about yelp. Paul sweeney, thank you so much with Bloomberg Intelligence, of course here on social media. Widely anticipated, it is my good morning. We will speak to dr. Roubini about the linkages of commodities in a global new mediocre. Really looking forward to a conversation with professor roubini. Stay with us worldwide, not mediocre, bloomberg surveillance. Good morning. Tom good morning, everyone. Bloomberg surveillance. We have a morning mustread. Here is mr. Greeley. Brendan we cannot let go of your his or herof yanas varoufakis. Tom why is that . Brendan i will explain. Mohamed elerian wrote love him or hate him varoufaki was never the arbiter of greeces fate. Yes, he should have adopted a more conciliatory tile and shown greater appreciation for the norms of european negotiations but relative to the macro situation, these are minor issues. He was wrong and how he negotiated, and when you have elerian talking about the norms of negotiation, it is possible to think that what went wrong was in part because a lot of people just got offended. Tom theirvaroufakis brendan i agree. Those things are still needed. He failed to get there because he was wrong on aisle, but the substance remains true. Vonnie mohammed treated it tweeted it out as well. What would you say about tsipras . Tom there is not much news on greece, right . Brendan he is talking to his party right now and saying if you can do it better, let me know, and we will have elections. Tom the spreads have improved in greeces favor in the last two hours. Brendan tsipras does seem to be more in control of his own power than i would have guessed a month ago. Vonnie he was not going to give up for anything. Brendan reading the elerian oped, when push came to shove Yanis Varoufakis despite knowing if it would fail i would agree, europe needs a new approach. Tom i would suggest they are dated thea dependent. And we have data, cpi unemployment, that kind of stuff, and the real economy will drive the debate. Brendan i think the other key monthly data we have to watch now from greece is Central Bank Cash flows coming out of the country. Tom the stock market is still closed, right . Brendan yes. Once you Start Capital controls it is hard to get out. Tom lets touch on our twitter question of the day. It is a moment of truth form the United States economy. This is direct from Michelle Meyer of bank of America Merrill lynch. Is today the moment of truth for the u. S. Economy . Registered copyrights bank of America Merrill lynch. Get excited for the 1989 world tour with exclusive behind the scenes footage all of taylor swifts music videos interviews, and more. Xfinity is the destination for all things taylor swift. This is a great place to work. Not because they have yoga meetings and a juice bar. Because theyre getting comcast business internet. Comcast business offers convenient installation appointments that work around your schedule. And it takes done. About an hour. Get reliable internet thats up to five times faster than dsl from the phone company. Call 8005016000 to switch today. Perks are nice. But the best thing you can give your business is comcast business. Comcast business. Built for business. Tom good morning, everyone. We welcome you to bloomberg surveillance. Lets get to our top headlines. Vonnie the fed indicating that there are a few roadblocks and in the way of the first interestrate increase since 2006. Policymakers have expressed satisfaction with progress toward full employment. They want to see some additional gains before raising rates. Governor Randy Crocker said there is a scenario in which the fed may hold off for a wild. Inflation has been quite low and either moving downward because of the lower Commodity Prices or even the strip of the volatile food and Energy Prices it is still volatile of 2 , with china slowing and concerns about china going forward, Commodity Prices in general have been lower than they have been, and this puts downward rusher on inflation, so it might make the fed delay a little bit and nonmovant december not move in september. Vonnie this may be the first traces of Malaysia Airlines 777 cents a disappeared 16 months ago. A section of the wing that russia that washed ashore appears to be from the 777 in the indian ocean. These Transportation Leaders in australia say it may be a lead. The jets turned south into the indian ocean before it vanished. A new poll this morning shows donald trump leaving the rest of the republican president ial field by a wide margin. Trump was backed by 20 of the Republican Voters surveyed. Walker was second with 13 and former Florida Governor jeb bush was third with 10 . Trump also tops the no way list. Meanwhile, the poll also says Hillary Clinton will be trump in a head to head contest 4836. Time warner cables secondquarter earnings have missed estimates. Higher Program Sales and marketing. Time warner cable is waiting regulatory clearance so it can merge with charter communications. It will become the secondlargest cable and broadband provider. You can own a piece of one of the most famous moments in u. S. Olympic history. The goaltender who led the u. S. Hockey team is selling his material, he put his gold medal uniform, and a lot more of for auction. The price 5. 7 million. He says he wants his children and grandchildren to be financially secure. I can feel tom getting excited on the desk. Tom great struggles, and he have a lot of courage and moving on from the massive notoriety. Vonnie absolutely. Tom i spent a lifetime within the 1980s and the club at cape cod and saw how a superstar totally unprepared had to deal with second by second adulation. Jim craig is a total class act. Brendan people talk about that once you perform in the olympics, how do you do anything else echo and you spend the rest of your life doing Something Else. Tom it was almost on steroids with mr. Craig. Vonnie will there be interest in the memorabilia . Tom huge. Hockey memorabilia does really well. It is a much smaller audience than basketball, but hill brendan they are all in the money. [laughter] tom i have never forgiven not been on a stanley cup ring which i let go. Brendan if you look at those guys met team have done cents, they hauled on one of two things, either opened a hockey gear store called olympic hockey, or they have gone into Investment Advice or. Tom there has been some a coalition of the team better really surprised everyone. Lets move on here the American Economy and the idea of investment and focus. In all of economics there is a dearth of inflation certainly correct that is what chair yellen has focused on here to the major part of america and a stronger america is getting back to normal on investment. Not investing but investment. He put money to work, it creates jobs, at least that is what the textbooks say that Michelle Myers has that Michelle Meyer has studied. I was told in separate occasions in 2007 this is what matters investment has got to come back. Is it coming back in america . Michelle i think it is still probably disappointing. Tom i agree. Michelle if you look at durable goods or aggregates, i think you are seeing some signs that it is turning, but by no means are you seeking a robust like all toward capital. Tom is it critically not bear, or is the investment going abroad like to mexico, as bob sincecinch said, with a weak mexican peso at the margin . Michelle a lot of Large Companies are looking for opportunities outside of the u. S. They are looking for opportunities and maybe more of the emerging markets where there is more growth possibility, but i the end of the day, i think the important thing is will we see Companies Find places to invest in the u. S. In terms of the infrastructure, in terms of the software . Remember, investment is not just in hard capital. Those in research and develop intellectual property vonnie right, and on that point, michelle, i was reading after the fomc notes came out, i wish i could remember who do credit to, but they said the bet is on people, and that is one of the reasons unemployment is coming down and why Business Investment in other areas are not going up. Is it a net positive for the economy if people are employed but Everything Else is that meant . Is stagnant . Michelle that is a good distinction. They can create output through employee capital or through physical capital. I think youve seen a pickup in hiring. You have seen low jobless claims numbers. I think that is clearly a good sign, that companies have been willing to hire and that they are investing again in terms of their Human Capital. We have not seen productivity advancement. In order to see that, you need to see capital deepening. Brendan higher demand for Human Capital should lead to ways being, which should lead to less inflation. That is a long road. When is the inflation happen . Michelle i am in the camp that we are already starting to see wage inflation. We are going to get an important indicator on friday, the cost in dex for q2, which is relative to hourly earnings, for example. You are seeing wage growth at 2. 6 year over year, but that is still subpar. It is certainly an improvement. Tom the thing i focus on is something that donald trump and Hillary Clinton can agree on michelle oh, ok. [laughs] tom good quality jobs. Investment is not a 10 or 15 minimum wage job that is there or maybe they advance a little bit. The romance from another generation are real jobs. Are they out there . Michelle at this point in a cycle, i think we are seeing broadbased job creation. The early stage of the recover parttime work, businesses were much more skeptical, they were not willing to invest. I think you are starting to see a better quality because frankly businesses do not have a choice and i think that is what is owed so far in the wage pressure, jobless rates are up, theres a lot more turn in the labor market. Brendan what was great but you could not on tv was to watch the compliance alarm collapse in Michelle Meyers eyes when tom keene asked about donald trump. [laughter] we are used to 31 flavors and measuring on employment. We go back to the just plain vanilla Unemployment Rate . Michelle i dont think we can hear it we have a broad basket of indicators in the labor market. We used to measure that typical on appointment rate, which is currently 5. 3 . That is probably going to be your headline number and something to certainly focus on but i do think it is important to look at measures of underutilization. I think it is important to look at some of the measures that get a better understanding of some of the dynamics in the labor market. That is why the Federal Reserve has put out the labor Market Conditions index because they are telling us do not get too carried away with just one indicator. Look at a wider range. Brendan so many people who, the stats are dismissed as of the labor market dismissive of the labor market index. Michelle in theory it is good and practice, im not sure because the only release the changes. We do not release the levels. Tom i want to mention this, squally and cancer coming out with a price move on facebook, up to 105 from 100 dollars and i think that if some of the spirit that is out there that begins to feed on everybody, even in something of monday and as investment because the equity market things heal, and then the investment picks up. Brendan it is also entirely possible that is just basic trust, like we talked with paul sweeney. Mark zuckerberg said these are my plans your day trust him to carry them out. According to one recent wall street strategist, if you do not know what the Broader Market mean some a will explain it to you after the break. That is the single best chart. Coming up. This is bloomberg surveillance on Bloomberg Television. Good morning. Tom good morning, everyone. Bloomberg surveillance. Michelle meyer is with us from bank of America Merrill lynch. Here is our single best chart with Brendan Greeley. Brendan beta, the measure of where the data swings within the market. That is the subject of todays single best chart. The white is the s p 500, the yellow is the s ps high beta index, the volatility closest to the market. Those lines should be moving together, and in the last couple of weeks, tom, they have diverged. You are the technicals guy. Two i slept patience for this. One is the high beta there are two explanations for this. One is the high beta swing. Is there another reason for that . Tom there can be another reason for that. What is interesting about that chart as they are correlated and then they are not. The not to me is a big question and that leads to the distortion of this system. Michelle meyer, this is a riskfree rate. Do you know where this is . No. Michelle you have to have a really understanding of where we are in the Business Cycle to understand. Tom the reason this comes into a Retirement Plan at the look at the sharp ratio, which is a measurement of risk vs. Reward. That is based off of a socalled riskfree rate. I do not know where it is, you do not know where it is, and janet yellen does not know where it is. Brendan we have equities all over the world. The idea of beta kind of breaks down because then you have to decide where to allocate your betatracking assets, and then you cannot. Tom this is really important. M. I. T. Did the best work on this 30 years ago. He was not working in the derivative value we are in now. Alan greenspan said derivatives are good. Michelle it is not that they are bad, it just creates that much more complication and choices as opposed to the marketplace. Vonnie energy, raw materials, those banks in the commodity tom this is a great discussion format thursday. For math thursday. [laughter] brendan i am at the death of my ability to keep up. Vonnie why dont we turn to photographs . Brendan please. Vonnie activists in Portland Oregon are dangling themselves off st. Johns bridge as we speak. Shale investors are in town before heading to alaska very the protesters are hoping their bodies block the vehicles passing. They are tweeting from midair using the shaleno to spread the word. [laughter] i like that. Never to talk, officials have captured the second largest python in florida. Tom you have got to be kidding me. Vonnie 18 feet, three inches long. It is a female burmese python. Four inches shorter than the rural yes than the largest. They can eat deer, alligator. Brendan i was watching this on the news from florida, and they bury the lead a snake that can eat and alligator that makes my head explode. There have been so many releases that they are now an indigenous species, they are now reading on their own in the wild. Tom this is not three miles from disney, is it . This is souther . Brendan i do not know. The number of small animals have declined precipitously thanks to the burmese pythons in the wild. Vonnie a big snake on a plane. Top photo take a walk on the dark side. Adidas has teamed up with star wars. The shoe is customizable, and people can add exclusive star wars lasers and 3d darth vader molded backs. They start at 110. Does that hurt when you walk . Brendan adidas is trying so thats really to be cool right now. Vonnie adidas is always cool, always has been, and always will be, period. Brendan vonnie with such a definitive statement on adidas. Vonnie im not even entertaining what . Tom is the movie thanksgiving or christmas . Vonnie toward the end of the year december. Tom come on this is going to be done or miss. Vonnie is it a prequel, a sequel . Brendan it is almost ofas if the other movies have not happened. Harrison ford has naturally aged as has consolo. Tom the millennium has han solo. Tom the millennium problem the millennium Falcon Brendan that is not be falcon that is clearly a star cruiser tom shocks role changes we see our twitter question of the day we need to hear from you. The moment of truth. Is today the moment of truth for the u. S. Economy . At 8 30 this morning on Bloomberg Television and radio that new and important gdp report. Stay with us worldwide. Bloomberg surveillance. Tom morning, everyone. Bloomberg surveillance from new york city. Top headlines with vonnie quinn. Vonnie more fallout from Rolling Stones erroneous story about the gang rape at the university of virginia. After an investigation, the magazine retracted its story and editor dana apologize. Shares of whole foods are down as much as 14 in premarket trading. The organic grocer posted disappointing Quarterly Results. It also cut its sales forecast. Mainstream grocery chains have been attracting more organic buyers. Whole foods was also hurt by an overcharging scandal in new york. And republicans cannot complain they do not have enough candidates. 17th candidate former Virginia Governor jim gilmore. No word if he will get into next weeks televised debate. His name is only been mentioned in one national poll. A 17th candidate. Tom can we say that is it . Maybe fox will have a third debate. Brendan they will have overflow a and overflow b. Tom we will cover this hearing on next hour with a really interesting conversation our John Heilemann had with trump. Right now, Michelle Meyer with her expertise in the housing market. Housing has cleared, it moves on from an historic american grasp your part of the pain is structural, some of it with a permanent change. What we do, how we rent, buy, or even rent to own. Michelle meyer knows fewer are buying. She is with bank of America Merrill lynch. Lets focus here on the scar tissue, if you will. Should we really change, do you buy it for a minute, or do we go back to the stupidity of 2004, 2005 . Michelle i think a lot of it has changed. To me, the chart that sums up the best is the drop in the homeownership rate. We just got the q2 data. Were down to 63 and a half percent. Tom how does that compare to europe . Michelle it depends on where you are in europe. If you look at germany, for example, their homeownership is very low. But look at spain, their homeownership rate was higher than the u. S. Brendan that is just a rational response that maybe our homeownership rate was too high and had been inflated by government policy . I michelle i agree. I think the adjustment homeownership rate was inevitable at some point because it was booze by a combination of policy and support to homeownership, coupled with the Mortgage Market opening up in creating this availability. Those have been adjusted. The homeownership rate has had an extreme role to the fact they had a crash. Vonnie keeping Interest Rates so low wasfor so long was meant to boost the housing market, but not as housing, to bootst and get well back in the economy. Michelle home prices have seen a pretty meaningful improvement. In fact, you can argue that things are starting to look a bit overvalued depending on what part of the country you are in. Indications are that homebuilding and singlefamily building is what has stopped. The best perhaps a structural adjustment. What the Federal Reserve was hoping to do was to create asset price reduction, and that they accomplished. Brendan we had caseshiller data out this week. We talked to Robert Schiller yesterday, and we asked if things were a bubble, and he said bubbley. Robert they are going up in some cities fast. I do not know if it is a bubble. It looks bubbly. Dallas is a great performer at this time. There is some excitement. People think dallas is booming and Corporate Headquarters are moving in. Theres a little bit of excitement, and that can generate over excitement. We will just have to wait and see. Brendan michelle, i will pull of a chart here for we have plain old 20city caseshiller we have a huge bump up top which is las vegas, and there is dallas, which never really saw the bubble, but is now pulling up as well. Do you see excitement as well . Does excitement mean a bubble . Michelle it does not mean a bubble. If things are bubbly, you have to look at home prices in relation to fair valuation which is local area and disposable income. I think if you look at a place like las vegas, it was very clear that they way exceeded the trend in income during the heyday, right, in 2004 to 2006, per se. It has leveled off, although certainly it has take up there as well. I havedo not have a strong view around dallas, per se. Brendan i sort of ambushed you. Michelle generally speaking, texas has obviously been supported by the move in oil prices. They have been strong for a while, there have been advancements in terms of energy. Tom michelle, thank you so much. Michelle meyer with analysis on todays gdp data. Our Foreign Exchange report this morning not much going on. I will look at mexican peso. It is a new weakness. Stay with us. This is bloomberg surveillance. Tom some and solid still a sheltered we will get deceptive or 17th as chair yellen and the fetish try to do no harm steal the show. We will get to september 17 as chair yellen and the fed try to do no harm. And an indication of trump supporters. The morning, everyone. This is bloomberg surveillance. We are live from our World Headquarters in new york. I am tom keene. Brendan greeley and vonnie quinn with me. Mexican peso to new weakness. It is all linked to the fed, isnt it . Brendan you can argue it is linked to the price of oil linked to commodities. Those factors are hard to differentiate. Nouriel roubini with comments here through this half hour. Lets get a top headlines with vonnie quinn. Vonnie thanks, tom . The Federal Reserve is dropping hints that Interest Rates good rise. Brendan although it is a haiku. Sorry. Vonnie although markets are improving, they want to see additional gains before raising rates. 3 4 of the economists surveyed by bloomberg expect rates to raise in september. Rates of not been posted since 2006. An object that floated to an Indian Ocean Island may be from the missing Malaysia Airlines plane. It is a three foot by nine foot metal sheet. It might be a wing flap from a boeing 777. That is the type of jets that vanished in march of last year. Months of searching since and have found nothing. Donald trumps lead over his Many Republican rivals is widening. In a new poll, 20 backed trump. Wisconsin Governor Scott walker is second. Former Florida Governor jeb bush is third with 10 . But 30 of those surveyed said they would never vote for trunk, and the polls of Hillary Clinton said she would be trunk head to head, 4836. Investors may be concerned about expenses. Facebooks spending rose 82 in the Second Quarter. Global users of the social network rose 13 year to are averaging 46 minutes a day on facebook apps. Sheryl sandberg people are spending more time on their mobile device and on facebook apps. We have one out of five minutes on mobile, and local uses driving globally as well. And global used is driving globally as well. Vonnie Mark Wahlbergs other apps can work on their own. He said the focus is now on expanding their Mark Zuckerbergs other apps can work on their own. He said the focus is now on expanding their usage. In the final hours before the trade deadline, the phillies decided there is no reason to keep one of the games best pitchers on one of the worlds worst teams. That is after he pitched a nohitter. In new york, the mets got an optional on the field after florez was told he would be traded. He was pulled after someone told the trade manager he was crying. That is not fair to tell your manager you have been crying. Tom i do not know. He is getting a paycheck. Brendan aw. Sports is everything theater should be and never is. Tom we welcome everyone on radio and worldwide this morning. Our data check is simple it is there. We go to gdp at 8 30 this morning. Ill are strong, mexican peso has a new record weakness. I just went back with Robert Burgess at bloomberg news. It has been a set of recent weaknesses recently at mexico. We will discuss this with Nouriel Roubini and Michael Mckee later. We have png out. It is another bluechip, a challenged bluechip as they spin off the hair care products. What do you think . Vonnie exactly. Everyone is looking at the charts in my take on venezuelan operations. It is a 2. 1 billion charge and venezuelan operations. Coming in at 1, which is better than . 95. Tom this reminds you of the sell side analysts Nouriel Roubini fed of tide and crest toothpaste as if it is too big to fail, it is too big to succeed. I will rip up the script a little bit. Janet yellen survived yesterdays meeting, but we have seen Market Reaction with twoyear yield higher. Moments ago, mexican peso sharply out to new weakness. Michael mckee enjoyed the heat from the building as well. Joining us as well as one, Nouriel Roubini of course, New York University and Roubini Global Economics feared michael there are knocked on effects to what any chairman does. Can you link mexican peso weakness to what we saw yesterday from chair yellen . Mike we can certainly link a little of it. Mexico, like all countries, will be affected by Interest Rates in the united eights moving and the dollar moving on top of that. Brendan also puts his finger on it when he says oil is significant because it is a big part of the mexican economy. Tom some really interest me because i was told us will never to use the word. Mike the fed is changed its statement very little yesterday but they had knowledge that the labor markets are getting better. We saw a solid job creation and a solid drop in unemployment which is absolutely correct. They dont want to take away from that that a Rate Movement is guaranteed in locked in. They said we still need to see s improvement, qualifying the word improvement. Brendan we had Michelle Meyer with us from bank of america and the last hour. Are we passed that now, or are we looking at plainvanilla unemployment . Mike pretty much as far as the fed is concerned. We will be following all of the statistics for a long time. Right now we are close to the place where the fed sees full employment, so then you Start Talking about do we get inflation out of that . That is the debates, the framing of the debate they will start having. Tom nouriel, we have not seen the rate rise since 2004, 2005. Enjoying a restrictive central bank politics, are we even remotely close to that . Nouriel we are beginning to see the rate normalizations sometime this fall, but when you look around the world, the boj Central Banks and monetary policy, zero policy rates, quantitative easing, Forward Guidance tom your original Research Work dovetailed with vice chair fischer, how can this work in a vacuum . They have to know added and mexico just to start the conversation. Nouriel certainly to build the affect of what the central bank is doing. Downside is coming from greece we are bearing on the fed, of course the china slow down, the stock market falling trying to backstop the Financial System and so on. I would say domestic factors are those that matter more. At this point, looking at the real side of the economy growth and unemployment, job creation, we are close to the point where it should occur. The fed has to become reasonably confident. Looking at that, many factors projected i would not really be very confident about that point being in september. The dollar strengthening, oil prices are falling, Commodity Prices are falling, wage is not accelerating, and given the large profit margin stomachs even with inflation, prices might be falling. Tom mike, you do this better than me, and you might do a better than dr. Roubini where is inflation right now . Mike uhoh. It depends on what measure you use. Cpi would strip out the commodity effects of the fed. Looking at that, their argument is we cannot do anything about the price of oil to we have to worry about prices in other areas, and there is evidence that rises outside of commodities are starting to rise. That is why they are looking at wages as a sign that people are beginning to see prices increase and demand more compensation to make up for it. Brendan professor, i am curious about something you said, a reduced risk of a greek exit. How confident are we that we can move past this . Nouriel the question is whether a grexit from the eurozone has been postponed, the timing certainly has been postponed for the next six months. The question is going to be sixmonth or nine months from now rather than bottoming out and recovering, politically and socially, maybe the government collapses, and then the question of the grexit appears as well. Again, it is a discussion six months or nine months from now. It is not a discussion for today. Vonnie where do you see u. S. Gdp growth . Nouriel below 2 . Tom you are saying below 2 . Nouriel yes. Even the fed said between 1. 8 and 2 . The Second Quarter looks like about 2 . We are not going to be doing great. Tom 2. 2 for the run rate. Brendan that is for the quarter, nouriel is talking about for the year. Mike since the First Quarter was a low, it is hard to get above that. Tom this is great. Can you guys stay on for the next six hours . [laughter] brendan coming up in all the chaos, how can investors figure out what to invest in . We are talking about the Global Market. Nouriel roubini have the answer next. This is bloomberg surveillance. Good morning. Tom good morning, everyone. Bloomberg surveillance. Brendan greeley on Nouriel Roubini. Brendan Nouriel Roubini is with us, professor at nyu also president of Roubini Global Economics 30 want to go through country by country and create as mark basket of a smart, active basket of passive investments. Here is what i need to figure out do we all need to be Global Economic strategists right now . Nouriel first of all, yes, to invest, you cannot put all of your eggs in one basket. The part about to investment approaches, both are flawed you get the good, the bad, and the ugly in benchmarks. In affect you get about 90 , and theyre very expensive and risky. What we are proposing is take the value, max economic and social value of a country, and score the country based on their investments. Based on that, decide whether you should be in which emerging market. A lot of the cost is driven by a fun a mental model a fundamental model. Brendan once upon a time we thought we had advanced economies and emergingmarket its emerging economies. These are a bunch of economies that are all different. Nouriel one is for advanced economies, one is for emerging markets, one is for advanced economies, like exceptional, like the United States, greece was an advance economy, now among the emerging markets. You know want to go into an emerging market you need to decide to go into one or another. Vonnie what will have the rating index . Nouriel the biggest is asia, like taiwan korea. China enters into the basket but significantly underweight because of the risk. The basket is balanced every three months. It is slowmoving but check on a regular basis. Tom i just looked at the philippine peso for the first time in, like, three months these are ugly charts. There is no other way to describe it. These are weaker currencies, right . Nouriel you have to ask yourself why they are weaker. Look at a place like the philippines. For the last few years, 6 , 7 growth, the stock market collapses, advanced 20 , so the currency is weak . So what . It is actually bad for net exports. Talking about a weaker currency does not necessarily mean is bad for the country. Tom we will talk about a lot of the explosion with professor roubini. Our twitter question of the day on gdp, is today the moment of truth for the u. S. Economy . Stay with us. Tom good morning, everyone. Bloomberg surveillance. Tom keene, Brendan Greeley, and vonnie quinn has top headlines. Vonnie senators will vote today on a big highway bill before hitting the road for their vacation. The house passed their version of the 8 million measure yesterday. If it does not pass, the Highway Trust Fund will run out of cash at midnight tomorrow. Selfies are writing the financial picture at sony. The Japanese Electronics Company Thanks in part sales to smartphone sensors it makes. Stocks have fallen six of the last seven years. Tom bradys deflategate battle is going into overtime. The nfl Players Union is suing the league to stop the suspension of the patriots quarterback. The football tampering issue is now in its sixth month. Tom i do not know or do they are using more adverbs this thing than the fed. Following a day by day. We say good morning worldwide, to bloomberg 1200 and boston on Bloomberg Radio as well. Ive been waiting for this all week on my discussion with Nouriel Roubini about what he has seen in the amplitudes of our economics and the realities now of commodities. The reality is we are deep into qe1 qe2 evenqe5. We will somehow accommodate the financial crisis and accommodate a really economy leveraging. One indication of the true implosion is commodities. Oil has been halved, just as one example. It is all part of madame lagardes new mediocre. Nouriel roubini as with nyu and of course Roubini Global Economics to you and i have seen commodity implosion before. What is different this time . Nouriel it is a combination of i would say supply and demand. The demand is increasing shale in oil, that is part of the story. Energy and commodity coming from the slowdown of china, a combination. Ive have of the other factors there is also the fact that when the fed is hiking rates, that weakens commodities and it leads to the dollar price of commodities, so the combination of all of the global tailwinds supporting the Global Market china it is now becoming headwinds. As the fed exits, it is over. Tom you live on airplanes, he just traveled from kazakhstan you buy suits an airplane terminals to your know that, nouriel. Nouriel yes, i do. Tom that is at laguardia. Within that is technological process. This time is different, productions are not going to slow down. When does the price clear if we have this overlay of Technological Progress . My answer is we do not know. Nouriel there are lots of different estimates about what it will be, gaza oil, some people think it will only be 2 or 3 per year, others think it will be 5 or 6 . 7 for five years as more than 35 which is a breakeven price for the production of shale oil, 35 lower. Even if prices will be significantly lower, production is not going to fall. Tom do you agree with Gary Shilling that we have got to go below 20 a barrel . Nouriel i do not think so. I think the oil prices will stabilize in the next two years or three years between 65 and 70. There is a mass production right now and, and oil. Therell be less in the future. Cutting capex by 25 , 30 pride percent, so supply will decrease more slowly, and the price will go slightly higher. Brendan we are talking about supply and demand, capex spending. Oil is a normal commodity. Have we seen the breakdown of cartel pricing in oil . Nouriel there has been a breakdown mostly because of outside there have been a significant number of new producers from Africa Latin America to africa. Brendan opec can never get its Pricing Powerback . Nouriel if saudi arabia decided they want to cut supply they could have some Pricing Power. It is not zero or full to your to their power has been reduced over time. They still have a significant amount of power, saudi arabia. They may decide to essentially cut production. I think they did it not just for their own enemies whether it is iran or for example russia, but also for economic reasons . If you have to much production by highcost producers, and shale oil in the United States, and lower prices means you get rid of high marginal cost for yourself, you have a larger market share. It is a rational decision. Reduce prices, they are evening out. Vonnie australian oil, they are talking about a rate cut you know the aussie dollar is down. Does the rba cut rates . Do we see more cuts even as the fed continues to hike . What is that it to the market . Nouriel in australia, you have the follow coming from china, and like any other commodity currency, growth is slowing down. What is the actual response to having a slowdown in growth and low inflation is going to be capping Interest Rates to boost the economy. Inflation is low, Commodity Prices are slowing. Like canada, like other commodity producers, and low inflation. They are doing the right thing. Tom Nouriel Roubini with us. I hope you can stay with us, nouriel. I want to talk about radical remedies from your book out a few years ago. We see futures at 1, and im looking at gold down a good seven dollars. 1086 is not a big deal. We have a huge response to our twitter question. 8 30 gdp analysis of the nation. Is today the moment of truth for the u. S. Economy . That is out bsurveillance. Stay with us. Bloomberg surveillance. Tom good morning, everyone. Bloomberg surveillance from new york city. A headlines with vonnie quinn. Vonnie it sounds like a few hurdles to clear before the first interest increase in nine years. The Central Banks policymaker cedi dove market is getting stronger, but they are waiting for additional gains before raising rates. We get another key economic reading less than a few hours from now. Less than an hour from now. A metal sheet found on a Remote Island in the indian ocean will be sent for testing. It might be from the missing Malaysian Airlines jet. Officials say it is a wing flap from a boeing 777. That is the kind of jet that vanished over the indian ocean in march of last year. No trace of the plane has been found since. In cincinnati, a White University Police Officer is charged with murdering a black man during a traffic. Up. Video from the officers body camera shows the officer talking to the man just moments before the shooting. Prosecutors say the Police Officer lied about being dragged by demand for the car i the by the mans car. Richard hammond and james may will be along foreign amazon top gear show. It was on the first time because ruffles. Very entertaining. People were very sorry to see he was going. Brendan i want the control room to know there is no greater sin than being a producer. I feel that in my heart. Tom citigroup coming out, whole foods, like this title whole disappointment as he looks at the challenges of the grocery store. It is jammed at 57. Vonnie not only are they facing competition from the likes of sprouts, they are also facing competition from amazon and fresh express. Tom citigroup a whole new disappointment. Nouriel roubini, emerging market index for jpmorgan, this is the general weakness in emerging market which has become more than general now. I want to go back to your professional reading, mr. Roubini, of an fisher of stan fischer. At what point does Stanley Fischer step up and say we are beginning to see elements of what he live at the imf in 1998 . Nouriel certainly there are weaknesses in emerging market spirit you have the federal monetization, the china story, the commodity plan, a bunch of countries with high public and private debt external debt. Rising inflation. There are elements of fragility in the emerging markets. They sink him, equity markets have done poorly. Systematic drill currency, banking, financial crisis, most emerging markets are lower. Less on their foreign liabilities, better Financial Systems more reserves, and so on and so on. Are you going to see prices in many of these emerging markets . Yes. Will you see a sovereign debt crisis . Probably not. Tom china has a different rule. Their currency is managed to be collate, right . Nouriel yes. 4 trillion dollars of reserves you will not see a banking crisis or the like in the case of china. They are already lying about their data. Second quarter, china declared at 7 . The economy is slowing down very sharply. Now they need intervention in the form of markets monetization. Tom i find this to be interesting, not like 1998, but getting there. Brendan that is why wanted to go to 1998. He talked about your smart data and about the philippines, south korea. Have they been successfully insulated by the experience in 1998 to prevent another crisis . Nouriel when you have emerging markets, you kind of lump them all together if they are all weak. Currencies are weaker now, some are strong economic fundamentals. For example, korea lowbudget deficits, low private debt, low public debt. Can they do restructuring a form like india, like other countries and emergent in emerging asia . When you use the smart that approach, you look at financials, which countries look weak, and lots of them, for example, on the fragile site now measure weaker. If you look at russia, india, indonesia, turkey you do not want to include your market. Other countries are stronger than that. Tom lets come back with Nouriel Roubini of nyu. Futures 1, dow futures 8. Brendan this is bloomberg surveillance. I am Brendan Greeley with vonnie quinn and tom greeley. And tom keene cured in athens today, a Central Committee told them basically and tom keene. In athens today, Alexis Tsipras told a Central Committee that if they did not like them, to let him know. Hans nichols, did Alexis Tsipras just drop the mic . Hans he was speaking in an old cinema in downtown athens, so the venue would be right. This is not a mic drop so much as a dare. , and get me. One of two options on sunday they will either have a referendum within syriza on the bailout package on what to do net, and it looks like they will also have a Party Congress in september. That could lead to new elections. At that point, we make tom our chief senior dysfunctional correspondence. Brendan hans, is Alexis Tsipras now in complete control of greece . Is this going to work . Hans he is in control of a wobbly middle. You look at the number of votes he lost in the first parliamentary vote two weeks ago. 39. He trends that 236. Yanis varoufakis was one of the he trims that to 36. Yanis varoufakis was one of them. What weve found is a greek center. It is wobbly, but it will hold. It is the best of 251 within a core of 260. Can tsipras, the head of syriza governance wobbly middle of his core base wants him to do Something Else . Brendan hans nichols, thank you. Never quiet in greece. Hans nichols from berlin. We have no real roubini with us. You wrote in the ft that a grexit would be a catastrophe. Do you get a sense that they understand, that the European Finance ministers understand how bad it could be . Nouriel there is a reason why there wasnt the end of the day a compromise. It is not just economic and financial coming from the greek exit. Also geopolitical consequences. You have, for example, russia becoming more aggressive from ukraine to the balkans. The balkans is a member of nato. Nato is now wobbly with turkey being under pressure. You have the recent grexit probability. At the end of the day, Angela Merkel has to really think if she wants to start the beginning of the end of the european union. Geopolitical factors led her to have a decision to work with her finance minister, wolfgang schaeuble, and she did the right thing. To keep the euro together, you have to keep greece. Vonnie nouriel, what concerns you most . What areas most to cause market tension in the next several weeks . Nouriel i would say from a geopolitical point of view, the middle east, conflicts are not going anywhere, even with Oil Prices Going south. I was a mediumterm, china and russia, china and it will be an important thing. We will see russia becoming more aggressive. A Political Risk with it within the eurozone, you have many economies there is bailout fatigue in the core, and there is austerity, and the risk is that populist parties of the right and the left in italy, and spain, and france, could come to power. It is a geopolitical sport for the economy. Tom bnp paribas in the news today, one of your great and powerful phrases, if it is too big to fail, it is too big to fail. Is Deutsche Bank too big to fail . Nouriel officially now it should be winding down orderly. I believe that if another financial crisis were to occur it will be easier said than done to wind down another major institution. Then we have examined do we want to bail them out or no . Many of them are too big to fail because they have been massive consolidation. For example, united hates of the banking system. Some of the larger banks took over smaller banks. Two big even to jail as we have learned. Brendan i find this fascinating. Finance ministers can make all their plans they want, but when it comes down to it, democracy has a way of saying nope. Tom policy has a real economic effect feared with a thank you to Nouriel Roubini. His book is crisis economics. Our twitter question is today the moment of truth for the u. S. Economy . Stay with us. Tom good morning, everyone. Gold down eight dollars. Not near critical support, but none the less self. Brendan tom brady cannot escape the deflategate scandal. Now the nfl Players Union is going to sue the league to overturn tom bradys suspension. Lets talk about what is really important, which is tom bradys brand value. Stephanie ruhle is here. What is his brand value other than i am the dude who is married to gisele bungedchen . Stephanie it is much more than that. He has benefited from playing for one of the best franchises one of the best coaches, but lets talk about what is happened this year. Clearly a very big negative, and again, tom brady, yes, he makes less and endorse this then Peyton Manning does the question is how long is he going to be able to keep these sponsors . He does not have a huge amount of endorsement deals, votto, under armour, but they are big ones. Brendan, you are a father of four. Is this going to change your kids opinion of tom brady . Maybe this makes him human. Brendan my kids have not formed their opinion of tom brady. Their cousins live in boston and are cute patriots fans, and my sense from all of my friends in boston is that this has not harmed his brand at all and in fact has inflated his brand. Stephanie inflated brendan i didnt mean to stephanie he had a number one selling jersey at the end of may. What we actually know that tom did . Nothing specifically, but he has taken one for the team. I liken it to jamie dimon. Remember when jamie dimon walked into the department of justice and said just give it to me i may not have been the one who committed the crime, just vonnie but tom brady is not saying that. What i want to know his longevity. Initially there might be a bond in his jersey sales because he is all over the place them on every back page, on every front page. Will that brand be tarnished down the road . Stephanie only down the time will tell. Tom has said he is the clutch player, and he will take one for the team. Maybe just maybe we will talk about what it does longterm maybe he will be writing speeches, writing books to maybe this is the moment that makes him human. Hold on would you really compare this to a Lance Armstrong . No wya,ay jose. Vonnie we do not fully know what Lance Armstrong did, either. Stephanie admitted to taking drugs . Vonnie yes, but we did not know that for a long time, either. Brendan if tom brady is doing Amazing Things to keep his body ready to continue to do this how does that brand survive . Stephanie i am saying being married to Gisele Bundchen and being super hot helps. [laughter] that is just me. We have a guest on who runs Sports Marketing firm sports impact. She may have a better technical answer than superhot and married to gisele. Brendan you should be a brand strategist. Every rule talking about tom brady coming up Stephanie Ruhle talking about tom brady coming up on Market Makers. This is bloomberg surveillance. Tom good morning, everyone. From new york city, bloomberg surveillance. Lets get to tuesday top headlines. Here is vonnie quinn. Vonnie thanks, tom. More fallout from Rolling Stones erroneous report on the gang rape at the university of virginia. The editor in charge is stepping down. The defendants named in the story are now suing rolling stone. Disappointing Quarterly Results for whole foods. The organic groceries change was chain was hurt by a scandal in new york when it was found it was overcharging customers. A 17th republican candidate is now in the race. Former Virginia Governor jim gilmore. No telling whether he will get into next weeks televised debate. His name has been listed in only one national poll. Tom very good. Good morning, everyone. Here is what you need to know. The events that is donald trump lead in the gop sweepstakes extends. Our John Heilemann went to New Hampshire and conducted a focus group with charles supporters. Here is a highlight of what they said with trump supporters. Here is a highlight of what they said. He speaks the truth. John what truth is that . When he talks about immigration and the border, he does not care about whatt others think. He is a little reaganesque. He is not a politician. He says, i will not be bought off. Trump is a threat. Tom most interesting conversation, John Heilemann. There doesit was he is reaganesque. Parse that phrase for us and what it means for the other candidates. Guest john sat down with 12 other New Hampshire candidates, anything we heard over and over again was authenticity. That is what he was getting at when he said reaganesque, and this context was he says what he means that he is a leader who is willing to offend people to get things done. Tom does it change the debate, the dialogue . Are we going to see a reagan lovefest as everybody tries to outdo reaganesque . Steven i imagine that will be the case. You will have people trying to Straight Talk each other. Tom i am trying to get Carly Fiorina Straight Talking. Brendan john mccain in 2000 when he would still talk to reporters and he was open, and he had an engaging style. Which candidate is best poised to tap into this thirst for Something Real and unvarnished . Steven what was interesting last night when john sat down with these folks as he asked them straight out who is your second candidate if trump were not in the race right now, who were you like who would you like . They were divided, but the most we heard were ben carson and scott walker. I think for two different reasons. Ben carson because he is the nonpolitician they are so craving. They said over and over that donald trump cannot be bought he as his own man, he is not a politician, he is like us they even said, which is really fascinating. He is one of us because he is not one of them them as and one in washington. Brendan but scott walker is one of them. Steven scott walker is a governor of wisconsin. They do not see that as entrenched in washington, d. C. They also see him sort of encapsulating the winner part of donald trump. He has fought and he has won. Tom we go to our dungeon of bloomberg politics, the dark closed quarter of the heilemannhowalperin empire. Getting out to a legitimate electoral mambo what is that methodology to expand . Steven it is hard to say because with a field this large, 25 of the vote, when you look at iowa, there are people who have won the state of iowa with 1 3 of the vote, so he is really not that far away. Expanding that, is for trunk, he thinks he needs to doing what he is doing, Straight Talking. Brendan he is crushing it in terms of earned media. Talk about the ground game. Barack obama had an amazing ground game in iowa. Does this matter for trunk . Steven for trump . Steven we have not seen any indication that he is building ground game. He has got all this money he does not need to build any. Vonnie will he get funded though . Steven he has gotten some donors, but he is not shown much interest in it. Tom how to see change the language, the pace, with governor jeb bush of florida . Steven what is interesting as we will learn a lot about the candidates in this race by how they deal with donald trump. I think we will see their management style, we will see their leadership style, we will see how they can think on their feet when they address tom do you have a timeline into august . Is there one date that you, john, and mark are focused on . Steven once we get past this debate, after that, everybody will be in gear over the fall, ramping up to january. Tom when is the debate, the 20th . Steven the sixth of august. Brendan steve, we are talking about him in terms of all the other candidates that we take seriously. At what point when we have to taken seriously as a possible nominee . Steven i think there are people who are taking him seriously. As a possible nominee, winning the nomination, i think we will have to wait until closer to the primaries, but if he keeps his numbers this high, we will have to Start Talking about him tom i saw out on twitter, and i want to be very careful, folks on the sourcing, mr. Trump said he would take ms. Palin into his cabinet. Has he expanded beyond that two other names of republican politics that he is comfortable with . Steven i have not seen him. He has talked a lot about the types of people that he would have at the negotiating table, and he talked about the official down near the border, he said he would appoint someone like that in texas an official in texas. He would appoint someone like that on immigration. He has nodded here and there, but he is not of any official proposal. Tom Steven Yaccino appreciate it. Important conversation, look forward to it tonight, 5 00 p. M. Eastern with all due respect, John Heilemanns interview tonight, 5 00 p. M. On Bloomberg Television. We have a twitter question of the day with a ginormous response. I was stunned at what we got. Vonnie we took inspiration by Michelle Meyer, our guest host from bank of America Merrill lynch we asked is today the moment of truth for the u. S. Economy . We are talking budget be of course. First answer no. The recent gdp revision history has been drastic. The first was too soon is more like a guesstimate, and should be ignored. Next answer hard to know what the truth is when it keeps getting seasonally adjusted. Im only looking at Companies Earnings now. Brendan this is amazing. Every time we talk about dvd, we always lapse into epistemology. How do we know what we know . Vonnie 2. 5 in our bloomberg survey. Last answer, and thanks to everyone before tweeting and, every day is the moment of truth for the u. S. Economy. That sounds like janet yellen. Today makes the fomc look even more silly than ever before. That does not sound like janet yellen. Tom we thank chris whalen for his attendance and as a guest on bloomberg surveillance. Brendan tom keene was out with the word silly this morning. Tom i miss to that. Until i get to my fourth cup of coffee. Lets look at an agenda right now. I will look at gdp, and this is really important and says so much about how we do things different in america. A Nouriel Roubini question, chinese gdp calculations. No one does that in the real world of American Economic there is a massive respect, brendan, for the effort, the sweat to try to do these numbers right. They are imperfect, but this is america doing what it does best, which is saying here are the facts as we know it, lets try to improve. This is a good day for American Economics. Vonnie i will be glued to the highway bill. I really am. [laughter] tom a bad day for american politics. Brendan this is fun. Vonnie the senate is voting on the highway bill at noon, both on a shortterm patch. Brendan i am taking a look at businessweek. Karen weiss has a great piece on warren buffett. She is an amazing tom writer. Shameless plug from Brendan Greeley. Market makers next on Bloomberg Television. Good morning. Live from bloomberg headquarters in new york, this is Market Makers with Erik Schatzker and Stephanie Ruhle. Stephanie good thursday morning. I am Stephanie Ruhle. Matt i am matt miller, in for Erik Schatzker. I missed you yesterday. Stephanie you had me for a a while but i had to get ready for the big dog. A little for you. What do you get when you combine mark zuckerberg, donald trump, and janet yellen . Hot, hot, hot and besides that, great cover stories to cover this thursday morning. Matt i get it now. Looking forward to that. My favorite story of the morning did you hear top gear, the guys who made the most watched show in the world, got a new deal . And it is not on traditional tv. Stephanie before we get to that, hold on a second. Matt i have watched every single episode. Stephanie any medium . Matt