Exchange, where we bring you todays market moving news from all around the world, from hong kong to london, to new york and washington. Our bloomberg voices are on the ground with todays top stories. In asia, hundreds of thousands joined hong kongs biggest demonstration in months in signs that demonstrations will continue into the new year. Joining me is stephen engle. Give us the update. You know, this has been a protest movement that is now into its sixmonth, and i have to say, there is a bit of protest fatigue. People are tired of the violence. People are tired of the vandalism. They are tired of the disruptions to their morning commute. They are tired of the damage to the economy. But they are also tired of what they perceived to be an intransigent government here, unwilling to make any concessions to the protesters. That left this weekends big mark. A big question will there still be momentum for the protest movement, which has dwindled in size, but increased in violence . That answer is yes, there is still momentum. As you said come upwards of 800,000 estimated people turned up sunday for a fairly peaceful protest. The other big question is would there still be broad support. The answer to that one is yes. Not only the0,000, protesters, but children, parents and grandchildren showed up. The big question now is what do, ife government anything, to respond to that. Even a probation lawmaker who we spoke to earlier this morning said even a probeijing lawmaker who we spoke to earlier this morning said it is up to the government of carrie lam to respond. She has a regular press Conference Tomorrow here in hong kong. Alix thank you so much. We turn to the latest on trade. The u. S. And china are in the final stretch of negotiations to fend off terrorist negotiations best to fend off to fend off tariff escalations. We are in the short strokes now. Weve been there. Now some of the most delicate matters have to be its cost, analyzed, and evaluated. Alix going to me on the phone from hong kong is enda curran. Put this into perspective in relation to all of the data we got over the weekend from china. Enda i think its a reminder that china is in the market for a trade deal for good reason. Theres a lot of downward pressure on its export sector. Atal exports fell 1. 1 from year ago, and for the u. S. , down 23 . Overall shipments had been expected to increase in the months because of the key shopping season. It should be the key season for manufacturing goods going across to the u. S. Ahead of the allimportant holiday demand. That doesnt seem to be playing out this year. There is a view from some economists at the worst may be still to come because the forward order books are indicating softness for chinas export market. I think the key take away from all of it is that when it comes to at least the manufacturing side of chinas economy, they certainly could do with some relief on the trade front, and that is why china is probably pushing for some kind of agreement with the u. S. , at least at interim agreement. But of course, we havent had any fresh signals from beijing on that yet. I think the coming days will be critical for any mood music that beijing does announce in terms of where they see trade talks going. Alix thank you so much. Now we go to the u. K. , where Prime MinisterBoris Johnson is returning to his key election message that only he can deliver brexit. Polls show his conservative party is on course to win a majority in thursdays election. Joining me from london is bloombergs adam linford. What happens in the next four days . Adam the final stretch of the campaign for the u. K. Election, Boris Johnson with that healthy poll lead is trying to secure a majority in parliament. Hes going to be taking that message that hes the one to get constituencyround districts he wants to win, many of them in former heartlands of his opposition labour party. Hes trying to win seats from people who backed brexit by winning their votes and take seats away from the opposition to gain that majority. The polls put them on course to do that at the moment. The betting markets are backing him up, with one bookmaker putting their odds as high as 80 at the moment. That is driving the pound higher , at eight to an to have your high against the euro today, and it has raised 1. 3 against the dollar. All eyes are on those poles. Are they accurate . Is the message cutting through . Labour is trying to hit its core message that it will end austerity economic policies in the first 100 days of a Jeremy Corbyn government. Those are the key dividing lines of the election campaigns. Tories saying they will get brexit done. Labour saying economic changes coming. Alix thank you very much. Tune into special coverage on thursday for the election after the polls close. We will bring you the latest at have a clock p. M. New york time, 10 00 p. M. London. The mayhem in the u. S. Repo market in september wasnt just a temporary hiccup, according to new analysis from the bank for International Settlements. Monetary Economic Partners said this should be able to happen again. On the one hand, we know that particular quarter ends and the end of the year tend to be precious on repo markets, and that is likely to happen again. At the same time, after the current incidents, the authorities are better paired to deal with those and provide the necessary amount of liquidity to ease provenance in the market. Alix joining me from london with more is bloombergs dani burger. Dani this has been debated for a while. In the repothat market . Some of the big concern, basically, the repo market banks,on four big and they have been moving increasingly their liquid assets into treasuries. That mix it difficult for these banks to serve their role as market facilitators. They hold about 25 of the cash reserves of the fed, but 50 of treasuries. That is a recipe for these issues we have seen in the repo market. At the same time, hedge funds have increasingly been dipping into the repo market to look for funding. They use it for their daytoday leveraged trading, so there is a mismatch between supply and demand when it comes to the banks and the hedge funds. Another issue i thought was really interesting was that these banks basically become inexperienced at doing this. Because of qe, we have seen a system flush with cash. Their role of providing daily reserves, they are not used to it. They havent had to do it. You have a staff that is more inexperienced. That point i thought was a new and interesting when we havent really heard before. The fed has been providing temporary fixes. The bias saying they are prepared the bis says they are prepared if there is another hiccup. This concerns that may be a player will have to do felt in the repo market, which would cause a fire sale. But the fed ingesting the fed injecting into the repo market, but will be seen how the market sees this. Alix the market which decisions from the fed, the ecb on wednesday and thursday. Here was more is michael mckee. What is the most important thing . Michael its hard to say because it is a week of a lot of headlines, but probably not a whole lot of risk. In each case the decision is likely to be do nothing, maybe sing a few holiday carols, and then go home. The fed, why would they want to move at this point . Goldilocks is sleeping in the bed and it is just right. No wage pressures at all. They are to take a break. Market thinks they are likely to take a break. Market thinks they will cut again sometime next year, but not for a while. Ecb exempts more banks from 75 basis points, so they are likely to see how it goes. The ecb isnt crying out for additional moves, which is a good thing because they have almost no moves left. Which means the news out of frankfurt is may become a what is christine going to say . Christine lagardes first meeting. She will be watched very closely, critiqued, and of course come up prepared of course, compared to mario. Ppi,e u. S. , we get cpi, and import prices, none expected to move enough that it would bother that that bother the fed. Alix thank. We rounded out ndc, warehouse investigators will give their closing archivist today in the case against president trump. Joining us with Maurice Kevin cirilli. Give us a rundown with more is kevin cirilli. Give us a rundown. Kevin there will be notable absences from the white house. The white House Counsel saying he will not be attending on behalf of the president , despite being invited. President trump also not going to attend. This comes at a time in which, all over the weekend, the various committees working on the impeachment issue have been working to draft articles of impeachment. I spoke with one senior staffer of one of the committees working on this, who said there were long hours, a lot of pizza, and additional drafts that were circulating all throughout the weekend as they inched closer to releasing some of those articles of impeachment, with a vote expect by the end of the year. Meanwhile, attention turning to the republicancontrolled senate, where there is a republican firewall. The president still not at risk of losing any republican support. There are some new polls out this morning of independent voters in michigan, wisconsin, and pennsylvania that was just amongst those independent voters, largely the impeachment issue has been much of a wash. Alix thank you. Here is Something Else i am watching, car sales in china. It is almost certain that the chinese auto market is going to fall for a second year in a row. The store slump continued in november. That decline was 17th in the list in the last 18 months. The only increase came in june, when dealers offered very large discounts to clear out some inventory. Industry experts are now protecting some consolidation. They will get weaker players squeezed out by intensifying competition, and renumber, the ev subsidies of also been cut. Coming up, much more in todays first take. This is bloomberg. Alix time now for bloomberg first take. We are going to give you the news. You get the trade and analysis of the markets. Sassower, is damian , and yelenaarella shulyatyeva. There is so much going on this week, you cant actually fit into one calendar. As a trader, what do you care the most about . Looking at cpi earnings coming out this week. The Central Banks i think i pretty much dictated. This prize is going to come from u. S. Inflation. Isaac that is the key this week. Yelena sorry, i disagree. Todont think we need watch inflation that closely this week. He we will see a pickup this week, slightly higher than the market is expecting, but it is not going to define policy in the near term for the fed. I think what we really should be watching during the press conference from chair powell is what they are going to do with repo markets, and all the stress that we have seen. How are they going to handle it . Vincent well, theyve said they are going to throw the kitchen sink at it. I think the issue with the repo market is going to remain as long as you have a fixed fed funds rate. Unless they let the fed funds rate trade and they know what the real stresses are in the market on a daily basis, they are never going to completely understand what the banks the quiddity needs are what the are. liquidity needs there are three Asset Classes. If you fix one, the others start trading wildly. If you fix the fed funds rate, the money market rate start to trade wildly. Damian for me, the two things i am watching are the u. K. Elections, obviously right in your we house, and a phase i deadline set for december 15. Will trump allow that deadline to be extended if nothing is finalized by then . That is the real question for markets because if nothing is done, the dollar is going to rally against everything, including all of the asian fx crosses in the emerging markets. Vincent i think it is hard to see him play scrooge owing into christmas and not at least delay tariffs. Done justa poll before thanksgiving that said 40 of voters could change their mind. Combined that with 13 of the undecided, and you get a 50 electorate that could flip the whole thing around. The penning on how people really that is goingxit, to make this election call. Brexitas more to do with than the typical politics of conservative and labour. Alix ok, i am watching yelena ok, i am watching retail sales this week. [laughter] alix like i said, every thing is important this week. Yelena what is have important is the consumer continues to drive economic growth. That is a key thing to watch. Repo,so the dollar, consumer inflation. For the fled, what are they going to address for the fed, what are they going to address that is actually relevant . Yelena i think it will not be in that interesting for the fed meeting. Repo is going to be quite central because they were still undecided about what they are going to do. Another thing to watch from the , they still have 3. 7 in their forecast for the end of this year. Are they going to revise it . That is an interesting one to watch. Damian that is a good point. With the ecb meeting coming up, it is lagardes first meeting. I dont expect her to change anything, but shes going to set the stage for the january 23 meeting, where she sets up the ecb strategy for 2020. The market is exciting a lot more volatility built into that date, so i think there is a more importance placed on wednesdays meeting with lagarde to just see how she is going to handle things as we head into 2020. Prices more market volatility if we dont get it. The best rate of 2019 has been riding options, not buying them. What i was talking about was inflation is the earnings number. I want to see what wages are, and how that is real earnings are compensated by inflation. Thats what im looking at. Thats why retail sales will give you what the consumer picture is, maybe, going into the first quarter. Slowing. Rowth is still not critically, but still slowing because the consumer. We did see some deceleration in income growth, and that goes to your point about wages. Damian i know oem is not important as the developed market i know oem is not as important as the developed market here, but we should see some rate cuts coming through this week in e. M. Alix what is important are the banks that that havent cut in any sort of issue. Damian absolutely. We also have a new president of argentina. We all know what is going on in argentina. Im wearing my green fish tie in ead, who the new bcra h hopefully wont be a dead fish will add to could ability will add some credit alluded to that institution. Alix did you really some credibility to that institution. Alix did you really wear it for that . I dont know what to say to that. [laughter] to see them come outdone us in october, and then hawkish in their last statement, and then see the employment nubbers on friday and have traders spun out three different ways, that is probably why hes leaving his job. Although some speculate there could be a trade, carney for polos. Poloz. Alix i thought about that, too. Vincent theres no clarity. Every time you get a number, like we saw the jobs numbers on friday, theres this big surge in the market immediately takes it back to the middle because we dont know what is going to happen next. As you sell with Canadian Dollar, for instance, we get a hawkish boc. The Canadian Dollar rallies, and the jobs data sunk, and they went back the other way. So if you fade those moves, your golden. Damian the last thing i will leave everyone he with here, we have seen inflation data out of china tonight. Ppi has been declining. If we dont see inflation pressures pick up, china is going to still need to stimulate its economy. Anything from you . Yelena not really. Retail sales will be focused. Ppi, dont worry about that. Thats not going to move the fed. Alix you left us with the tie, man. Not the trade. Cignarella,vincent damian sassower, Angelina Jolie to eva, think and yelena shulyatyeva, thick you very much. Remember the function gtv on your terminal. Browse the functions, check it out. Gtv. This is bloomberg. Viviana this is bloomberg daybreak. ,k has agreed to buy another deal in which a big drugmaker paid premiums to increase their focus on cancer treatments. Merck is paying about twice their market price. Unother deal in same space, sanofi is speeding up its pushing to cancer treatments. The french pharma chime it agreed to buy for 2. 5 billion dollars, more than double the u. S. Biotech companys last market price. Sanofi said it would accelerate 17 drug programs, almost half of them in cancers. Learned both isf and kerry group are negotiating with dupont. The division has been valued at about 25 billion. Dupont shareholders would retain a stake in the business. That is your Bloomberg Business flash. Alix thank you so much. Another company i am watching, shares of total oil falling the most on record today of total oil falling the most on record today. You cannot suspend your dividend if you are an oil company. That sent shares tumbling by more than half. Technical problems have hurt production and stability in africa. Coming up on the program, a flood of Central Bank Decisions on deck this week. We will discuss how Monetary Policy could shape the outlook for 2020 with sebastien page of t. Rowe price. It is a very busy week. What you want to do, sell or buy vol, or just waited out . S p futures premuch flat on the day. In other Asset Classes, you are seeing some buying into the bond market. Oil getting hit a bit, but thats coming after a 12 week high on the market. We will be talking to jeff curry his calln sachs on after opec. This is bloomberg. Beyond the routine checkups. Beyond the notsoroutine cases. Comcast business is helping doctors provide care in whole new ways. All working with a new generation of technologies powered by our gigspeed network. Because beyond technology. There is human ingenuity. Every day, comcast business is helping businesses go beyond the expected. To do the extraordinary. Take your business beyond. Alix this is bloomberg daybreak. Lets take a look at the markets. We have a lot happening over the next week. A lot of risk. How do you price it in . The s p pretty much flat over the last few days. We havent had a 1 move in the last 30 days. The cable rate still one of the out performers of the g10 space. The euro inching its way higher, a sevenmonth high for cable. The twostens spread, 20 basis points. Crude down by one full percentage point, off of the 12 weeks highs. Goldman has upgraded its call. We will speak to jeff curry within the next hour. Viviana is here Viviana Hurtado is here with first word news. A Saudi Air Force officer shot and killed three naval personnel. Saudi arabia is promising to cooperate in the investigation. Some republicans are calling for the u. S. To temporarily halt Training Programs involving foreign servicemembers. A volcano eruption on new zealands white island killed at least five people. Dozens more are hurt. About 50 people were on the island, many from a cruise ship. The island is about 30 miles off of new zealands north island. In hong kong, the largest prodemocracy rally in months. This signals more unrest to come in 2020. Hundreds of thousands of protesters flooding downtown streets. The march was largely peaceful. Ong kong chief executive carrie lam refused to give into protester demands. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im Viviana Hurtado. This is bloomberg. Alix thank you so much. We want to turn now to women of wall street, we take a look at some of the movers and shakers on wall street today. We want to shine a spotlight on the world of Venture Capitalism. Joining me is a new dougal, is on new dougal is anu du fund, afemale founders founding partner. Thanks for joining us. Anu thanks so much for having me. Alix a lot of people talk about wanting to invest in women businesses. Is it just Impact Investing now, or are there serious returns . How do you quantify it . Anu great question. What we have focused on is really outcome. If you look at, even in 2019 in new york city, for the First Time Ever we have seen three female founded unicorns. The idea is this is not Impact Investing. This is the future. And if you are not paying attention, youre missing out on potential rate returns. Alix i lead and off the record panel with industry veterans on vcs and private equity. Basically, women were saying in silicon valley, it is still really impossible to get your foot in the door, not to mention even raising money. Why . Whats the problem . Anu i have a slightly different point of view. I think that over the past you know, i started the fund about seven years ago. If you look at how the landscape has evolved, almost all of the large Venture Capital funds that we know and respect now have their first, if not second, female partner. I think it is largely an issue of networks. I think that what we are seeing is that is fully changing. Theres a long way to go, but i think that things are definitely moving in the right direction. Alix give me some examples of some of the investment youve made over the last seven years, and how do you distill it . Anu sure. One is a Company Called maven clinic. Maven is a Digital Health care platform for womens health, offering Large Enterprises the benefit of helping pregnant women throughout their pregnancy by giving them access to telehealth practitioners. We invested in prelaunch, and the ceo has really done an amazing job of defining the fact that women control a massive spend in health care, and they are in charge of many decisions. They need Health Care Products that really focus on them as the enduser. Alix for more on the wall street perspective, bloombergs sonali basak joins me. Good morning. We talk about vcs and investing in women, can you give us some perspective on what the numbers are . Sonali in terms of private equity, it is not really great either. There are still these structural issues. Our own emily chang has written a whole book about this. I think one other question i have for anu is a lot of the unicorns we are seeing, rent the runway, for example, they still focus on womens markets. How viable is it for women to enter what is a mans world . Say, engineering start tory seeing from women . Canva, recently valued at 2. 3 billion, is a Graphic Design tool for a broader market. 23 and me, another female founded company. I do agree that women are starting with companies where they may have somewhat of an unfair advantage, and to their credit, those are Massive Industries and massive markets. So if you take the advantage of those opportunities, i think it makes sense. But you are also seeing really Interesting Companies on the enterprise side as well. Sonali something that is changing from where i am sitting, every bank i see is starting an effort for female founders. If that something people in the valley are really seeing . Are they seeing the lending comes through, or is it still my smallscale . Anu we are seeing efforts like Goldman Sachs launched a program that focuses on female founders, and melinda gates, one of our , investing in female founders. So i think you see an impact, but it takes time. My process is similar to other Venture Capital funds. That involves pitching both strategic and Institutional Investors. I think anytime you are the first or early in identifying a trend, it is typically harder because theres just no history of patterns that these Institutional Investors have seen. But i think with every exit, with every unicorn, they are realizing that this is a trend that is here to stay. Sonali are people looping all people of diversity together, or are all Diverse People competing for funds . Anu i wouldnt say they are all competing for funds. When you quantify funds, you can raise money from a family office, from an institutional fund, so the capital is out there. It is just a question of finding people who are looking for your story. Looking round it out, at 2020, what are some of the biggest trends you are seeing in terms of women looking to raise money, what kind of companys they are starting, etc. . Anu some of the trends we are excited about for 2020, going back to womens health, there remains a massive opportunity around companies that really focus on women as the Health Care Decision makers. So whether these companies hedge menopause or pediatrics, there is so much room for opportunity. I think Mental Health is also a space where we are seeing a lot of action and a lot of new, interesting businesses and business models. On the enterprise side, off the back of Companies Like zoom and slack, just more efficient and better tools for the workplace. Alix thank you so much. It was a real pleasure talking to you. L of female founders fund. Sonali basak will be sticking with me, as well. A big week for central but decisions, plus retail sales in the u. S. For Central Bank Decisions, plus retail sales in the u. S. Pageng me now is sebastien , t. Rowe Price Associates head of global multiasset. What is the biggest thing to look at this week . Sebastien overall, the key question we are looking for is we are lucky to be finding a bottom here in the economy. Are we seeing a reflection, or more of a stabilization . As usual, part of this will be Central Bank Policy. We will get some of that this week, but also trade negotiations. Alix how do you think about investing in that . Do you have to fade any shortterm rallies . Do you take opportunities to add to your allocation . Abastien we expect more of stabilization than a reflation. If you look at how markets are priced at the moment, stocks are relatively expensive, 17. 5 pe for u. S. Stocks. Ons are fairly expensive, especially outside the u. S. The yield on nonus bonds is 6. 9 percent. So you step back and say, what is the cleanest dirty shirt, if you will . Credit looks interesting. If you expect stabilization into 2020 and you have some relative valuation opportunities within credit, you can maybe stay neutral stocks and bonds at the top level, but look to overweight certain credit Asset Classes are historically cheap relative to investment grades. We are looking at client overweights to emerging market bonds, for example, highyield loans and so forth. Alix based on that, it feels like maybe you need to have lower yields that are continuing to support that view. Is that true . Sebastien yes, although the bottom line is for 2020, one of the themes will be duration. Duration risk is key in those markets. We are actually reducing duration in our portfolio, so we are under weighting hourlong bonds asset class we are underweighting our long bonds asset class. There are many scenarios around it. If you expect a stabilization, you get a carrytype environment supportive of credit. The other thing is under the surface of relatively rich or fairly valued stocks and bonds, you have a lot of deep crosscurrents and extended valuations. Think of value versus growth stocks, international versus versusmerging markets developed markets. All of those create relative value opportunities that are interesting, even if you are neutral stocks and bonds. Alix j. P. Morgan had a great chart over the weekend that i really enjoy, looking at 2020 aggregate rates. It shows how low we are, around 2 for the globe. Can you make a distinction in terms of what regions are going to have the best carry opportunity from that . Sebastien carry opportunities are there if you think of relative valuations. Cash is always an option, but cash is a drag. If we get the lagged effect of the fed cuts and we get a stabilization, or maybe some shortlived reflation environment, you should look at emerging market bonds as a slight overweight perhaps, or loans or highyield, as i mentioned earlier. Those are opportunities from a relative asset allocator perspective. Alix we had a full screen up that showed what you called a code red, talking about the different issues. Inflation, election, duration, and disruption. When you look at that thesis, where does fiscal fit into that . I am thinking about germany, i am thinking about the spd making more demands on the government in terms of investing, potentially the u. K. Sebastien fiscal could be a positive force for 2020. The reflation aspect just speaks to the fact that you can get some shortlived rally in value stocks, for example. Nonetheless, we are late in the cycle. Election. Ds for theres election risk in the u. S. , but also Political Risk globally. This is where we will say fiscal risk will matter, and you might get some stimulus in europe or germany, what you are already getting, but you could get more. D goes back to our earlier comments on Interest Rate risk, which is going to be a huge theme for 2020. R. Last d, because it is of. D. , is the theme disruption and how it influences inflation outlook. With think about 30 of S P Companies are under secular pressure, are being disrupted. This will play out in an environment where you get continued liquidity in the markets and some lagged effect of Central Bank Policy and some stabilization in the markets. Alix really appreciate that perspective. Sebastien page of t. Rowe price, thank you very much. Coming up, increasing overhaul at hsbc. Changes the at the interim ceo is making at the bank. If you have a terminal, go to tv. Watch us online, click on the charts. Scroll through and check it out if you missed anything, as well. This is bloomberg. Viviana youre watching bloomberg daybreak. Goldman sachs raising its price forecast for brent oil. Goldman citing the decision by opec to take aim at the markets shortterm imbalances. The Bank Increased its estimate barrel. To 63 a a housewifeal about christmaspeloton for struck some is out of touch. Actor Ryan Reynolds is one of the gyms owners. He posted this ad on twitter. Alix we turn to wall street beat to cover three things wall street is buzzing about this morning. Hsbc is looking at a revamp. The ceo of Global Banking and markets will be stepping down. Markets you have repo actually hitting the banks. Bank for International Settlements talking about the mayhem in repo market september could have been because of hedge funds. Sonali basak is still with me. Lets start with the softbank vision fund. Im not surprised that they are going to fall short of the target. Sonali i think what is remarkable, we had a while back our reporter who is covering softbank and funding issues is that this is only about 2 billion, well short of the 100 billion dollars they. Were going for. A lot of people are raising money in this market the 100 billion they were going for. Raising people are money in this market. The Venture Capitalists have also been raising much bigger funds. It is not that money is not flowing. It is just not all going to be coming from softbank anymore. Alix lets go to hsbc. A lot of interesting changes are happening. Where is hsbc in transition . Big figure inly banking, the one that went to saudi arabia for saudi aramco, they are replacing him with two coheads that were under him. They are not bringing in someone from the outside to do a big overhaul. They are only a couple years younger than him. This will be a multiyear turnaround planned, but right now they are looking from within. I know people that have wanted that job, so i wonder if they will still be looking to be outside and bring someone in. Alix interesting. The third story is the repo market. The bis had to report out that talked about the repo market not being a shortterm issue, and put some blame on angst and on hedge funds. Sonali we knew that hedge funds have been using repo markets more. This report really shows theyve been using it more than a lot of people realized. Banks have also been blaming regulatory structures these days about the repo market, but now regulators are turning around and saying the banks, maybe you could have done more. Alix so it wasnt just jamie dimon talking about getting rates lowered. Sonali i think theres a bit of debate about how much of this is regulation and how much of this is more of an economically viable solution to look at treasury markets rather than repo markets. The banks will continue to blame regulation. Alix fairpoint. Thank you. In todays off the beaten art or just a snack . Someone pulled a banana off of a wall and ate it, the centerpiece of a work of art that was sold three times for up to 150,000. After the banana was consumed, the gallery take another went to the wall. Before that, the artwork had become so popular that it had its own security guard. Apparently theres a manual that talks about the significant of putting up the banana . Art. Next up is todays traders take. If you are jumping into your car, tune into Bloomberg Radio on sirius xm channel 119 and the Bloomberg Business app. This is bloomberg. Alix time now for traders take. Joining may, vincent cignarella, voice of the bloomberg audio squawk. ,ou can listen joining me vincent cignarella, voice of the bloomberg audio sqawk. You can listen by typing in squa on th terminal. The Industrial Production white line falling once again, suggests that germanys economy is certainly going to follow. Even the situation with potential tariffs from trump coming up, the brexit situation which could also weigh on europe, and the ecb coming up thursday, i thing it leaves the ecb enter many in a tough situation. As we look at the euro itself, not a big fan of the currency going into 2020. Never make money buying it on 1. 11. My best guess is we see it break the 1. 10 level going into next year. Alix i feel is what i keep reading about, or repriced in for next year . You could see a big move and no one is excepting it. Vincent it just isnt there. You dont have a German Government willing to stimulate fiscally. The europeans in general are not. The European Central its hands tied. Theres really nothing left for them to do. They can say they have things to do, but the reality is not. I think what what well see from lagarde is talk about more stimulus. Alix i agree. Coming up in the next hour, barry knapp, Ironsides Partners managing partner, on 2020 and where to allocate. This is bloomberg. Alix welcome to bloomberg daybreak on this monday, december 9. Im alix steel. Lets take it from the top. By the biggestn prodemocracy protests on sunday, with demonstrators flooding the city. Children, parents, and grandchildren showed up. The big question now is what will the government do to respond to that. Alix the protests are peaceful as they vowed to keep fighting into 2020. Mr. Kudlow we are coming down to short strokes. Alix china and the u. S. Come into close negotiations, with china exports falling in november. Enda when it comes to the manufacturing side, they certainly could do with some relief on the trade front. That is why china is probably pushing for some kind of agreement. Alix china car sales fell over 4 last month, an unprecedented slump in the auto market. We know that particular quarter ends in the end of the year tend to be precious on repo markets, and that is likely to happen again. Alix more volatility a concern for the bank of International Settlements in their new analysis. They warned that the repo blow up in september was due to structural problems. The fed has been providing temporary sixes. The bias temporary fixes. Bis says there may be another hiccup. Polls show that Boris Johnson is ahead, with the tory beforeaking this message elections give me a majority and i will get brexit done. All eyes are on those poles. Are they accurate . Labour is trying to get through with its message of cutting austerity. And the peloton actresss back, this time in a Ryan Reynolds aviation gin ad. Youre safe here. New beginnings. To new beginnings. Here you go. Alix reynolds posted the commercial on twitter with the caption, exercise bike not included. In the markets, we have a very busy week lined up for you. S p futures treading water here. We have Central Banks, emerging markets, and a lot of data as well. Currie willhs jeff join us on that in just a moment. We have uncertainty in the 2020 central overshadowing banks according to dennis of evercore isi. Dennis joints me now on the phone. Walk me through your call. The crux of the call is youre going to have gdp growth in line with what had has been for the last 10 years, so 3 global, 2 u. S. Dollar headwinds will not be the same as they were this year for earnings. You have that combination, along contribution from along with 3 contribution from buybacks. Investment in ip is helping increase productivity at the company level, particularly for the s p. We are penciling in around 8 or 9 Earnings Growth next year, and a multiple that stays roughly the same. If you keep the multiple where it is, specifically because the fed has told us they want to underwrite higher inflation, the fed is going to keep financial conditions easy because they want inflation above 2 late in the cycle, and multiples down work against that goal. 8 ish from to have a Earnings Growth, which gets you to our 3400 target. But im surprised at is how aggressively people are pushing back against it. Alix what do you make of that . Youre basically looking for a trade detente. Youre seeing some risk on markets, some volatility. What is the pushback . Dennis the pushback is very specific to some extrapolation of fear. In my opinion, people are very fearful of the unknown as it relates to trade. It is something we have not dealt with forever as far as investors are concerned, so it is something totally new injected into the system, which has created a term of this amount of Business Uncertainty, which has also created a lot of catnip for confirmation bias. Because it is so new, whatever fear that is out there gets extrapolated. So because of this uncertainty, people have stopped and argued, doing a lot more fundamental work and extrapolating the rules. I get it. It is a very uncertain world, and Business Uncertainty as it relates to trade is going to be elevated. But as long as consumption is firm and the labor markets are firm globally, obviously we all saw the payroll report on friday, we shouldnt worry about a recession, especially in the u. S. , given that consumption is roughly 70 of the economy. So i think it is just fear of the unknown, and that is a buying opportunity. You want to be taking money from people that are selling into those rule of thumb fears. Alix catnip for confirmation bias. That might be my favorite sentence ive ever heard. Dennis debusschere, inc. You so much. Ironsides partners has a different view on 2020, writing the equity market will be vulnerable to correction when it becomes evident to investors that quantitative easing programs launched the previous left efficacious sorry, i can say it on paper come out o on paper, but on the prompter it is further away. Every nap, ironsides partner managing partner barry knapp, ironsides partner managing partner, joints me now, using very big words. Barry what ive been arguing for is that we have three tailwinds that really push the market forward, until around about april or may. Those are a recovery in global trade and global manufacturing, which was really evident in the chinese import data last night, as well as the taiwanese export data. Furthermore, as far as that whole trade dynamic goes, its pretty clear is been an adjustment to that. Look at industrial sector margins, for example. They are actually higher than where they began the trade war at. They bounced back sharply in the third quarter. You can see that honeywell, for example. It is similar to how they adjusted to the 2014 to 2016 pony 5 increase in the tradeweighted dollar. Monetary policy is a tailwind. Nonqe4 program is loosening financial conditions, as dennis said. That will continue to be a positive increase until about april. Tailwind is that real wage growth is at its best point for the entire cycle. That should keep consumption 0. 5 toat roughly 0. 75 . We will be looking at the end of those bill purchases and have probably our ninth policy normalization related correction cycle this cycle. So at this point, you get a pullback. I think Earnings Growth, i agree with dennis, we could have 8 to 9 Earnings Growth this year. The back half of the year will probably be pretty ok come about the back half of the year will be more about Earnings Growth. The first part of the year is more about that liquidity dynamic, the recovering global trade, still resilient consumption, and the that recovery in global activity. So what do you do in april . Barry it primarily depends on what your tolerances are. These policy normalization related corrections, when i was working at blackrock fixed income, i walked in the door in the middle of 2014, in the middle of the taper, and said we will have a big correction. They said, how can that be . Traders,or equity typically what investors do with those is see them as buying opportunities. So if you are active investor, a hedge qamar for example, you are going to want to a hedge fund, for example, youre are those ast to look for we push higher through the end of the quarter. If you are a longterm structural investor moving around a battleship, you probably want to start thinking about what sectors perform better on the others, but it is not as if you are going to be so nimble as to come back in. What i will be recommending at that point is saying, ok, ive been recommending industrials, tech, financial. Will they be extended at the point where they have already priced in best outcomes . Then figuring out what works best in the second half of the year. Energy and health care might work in the runup to the election as some other things come off the table. Secularure looking at negative that you have to take into account as well. Barry absolutely. For example, i always struggle to tell people to buy sectors or countries that are in you know, have big secular headwinds. China, for example. To me, they are going through the inevitable decline in socialism with chinese characteristics. Socialism is never going to work anywhere. Theres people very tim to to buy it right now because, as i said a bit earlier, chinese core imports are increasing. It looks like they have stabilized gross. Theyve started to get some activity in the small private sector type companies. You can see that in the last official pmi, for example. For me, i cant buy china. I wouldnt buy china. I wouldnt by germany unless they are really willing to restructure their tax code. Other parts of asia look interesting. Thats sort of where i come at all of that. Alix that makes good sense. It barry knapp of your insides knapp of barry Ironsides Partners is going to be sitting with me. Coming up, we talked to jeff head ofGoldman Sachs global research. This is bloomberg. Alix goleman sachs raising its Brent Oil Forecast for 2022 63 a barrel. Joining us now is the man behind the forecast upgrade, jeff currie, Goldman Sachs global head of commodities research. Barry knapp of ironsides still with me as well. What is behind the call . Give us that perspective. When you look at what they did friday, one, it was deeper than what most people expected. The crux of it all is a shift to be much more shortterm. We think that is critical because commodities are spot assets, versus financials, which are anticipatory assets. Oil should be all shortterm. Taking out that Forward Guidance i think is critical. A much moreto shortterm. They can manage nearterm surpluses, what they did in the 1990s. Also, the threat becomes credible. If you dont bring production back in line on the very short time, we are going to launch these chips. Put it altogether, it is a much better strategy. I think it goes to a broader point, the ipo. Oil equities had done nothing but trade down since 2015. Versus price is at 63 26. When we think about that disconnect between oil and equities, the difference between spot assets like commodities and anticipatory assets like equities. Alix if you wrap that income you mentioned energy at some point being interesting. At what point does it get interesting . Barry i havent recommended it this entire cycle. We had these booms and busts. Tech, housing and financials. This is about a decade that i have for so a decade and i half or so for energy. Off not justork structural capacity, but how many hedge funds are there out there looking for that bounce . For me, it has been a tough call. I havent recommended it. However, jeff, you point out this complete dichotomy between fundamentals in the crude and the share prices. Theres also a policy discount. If using about how policy discounts traded in the last decade or so, for example, in the runup to the 2010 election you had this ferocious rally and financials, and a Republican House is going to be able to overturn doddfrank and obamacare. Of course, it didnt work out that way, but you do get these extremes. I think you can rally into a president ial election because people start to realize these worstcase scenarios like medicare for all and no fracking will dissipate. Investmentwhole gse idea has got really extreme. The idea that all new money comes into gse. So low groups rating is relative to its fundamental rating that it just gets washed out. The sector that i expect will get really interesting at some point in 2020. Im not ready to pull the trigger on it yet, but i am definitely looking at it. Jeff we like it from the commodities side, and that applies to the whole economy. Barrys i think point, we look at the whole economy. It has 2 corporate losses. It has 80 of global emissions. You can say it is overbuilt, over levered, and over polluted. Its got to deal with these structural issues pending with these structural issues. The trade war only exacerbates these structural problems. It is not because of them. What we are finally seeing is the drop in capex. Right now, we like them from a commodity perspective because you are starting to create that tightness. When you take the shape of that oil curve, opec controls the shape of that curve. Why were they will into cut back production . Because they can see capex is coming down. If they can ride out the surplus right now, they have the ability to start to Grow Market Share at the end of 2020 and 2021. Alix lets go to my terminal. This is the brent forward curve. You can see how steeply backdated we are now. But now the curve has started to move higher a bit. As long as you are steeply backward dated and as long as opec is in some ways targeting that, it makes it easy. Jeff we estimate the oil curve can stay flat at 63 for the rest of the year, and you will earn somewhere between 15 and 17. Percent annualized returns alix why doesnt the curve move up and 70 annualized return and 17 annualized returns. Alix why doesnt the curve move up . Jeff every time this market tries to rally, they come back and sell the back end. They cap the back end. C cups on the front end opec cuts on the front end. Now, barry doesnt want to give them the capital to go out there and hang themselves with, which have done which theyve done over the past years. Barry that just prevented the transfer of assets to stronger hands, like exxon and chevron and the like. Jeff i think that is the key. Our lower for longer on new oil order thesis was predicated on this market keeping prices low enough to keep the capital out. What happened in 2016 and 2017 . China stimulated. Production and gave this market a lifeline. Alix jeff currie of goldman and barry knapp of ironsides, we are going to be back. Do you want to do gold or bonds . Wheres the safety trade for 2020 . This is bloomberg. Viviana this is bloomberg daybreak. Merck said it agreed to buy arqule for 2. 7 billion, another deal in which a big drugmaker paid premium to increase its focus on cancer treatments. Merck is paying about twice arqules market price. Another deal, sanofi agreeing to buy synthorx for more than double the u. S. Biotech companys last market price. Would has said it 17 cancere almost programs. Bloomberg has learned both isf and Irelands Kerry group are negotiating with dupont. Shareholders would retain a stake in the business. That is your Bloomberg Business flash. Alix thanks so much. The fiducial case for gold is strong, according to a note from Goldman Sachs. Ofll with me, jeff currie Goldman Sachs and barry knapp of ironsides. The way i look at it is gold versus bonds. Tell me why. Jeff first of all, lets talk about the decline in capex and investment that we see. Because of political uncertainties, saving is coming up, but investment is collapsing across the board. As a result, we are seeing excess savings beginning to develop, like what we saw in 2000. However, this is more vicious in nature. Nonetheless, it is supporting demand for gold and bonds. One. Is point dedollarization, the demand for gold this year is eating up 20 of goebel supplies. Our estimates, we did of global supplies. , i am going to like gold better than bonds because the bonds wont reflect dollarization. Barry its fascinating. Look, i penciled in liking bayer steepeners, buying inflation breakevens. I think inflation metrics will move higher. Theres some structural reasons, including greater elasticity of supply. Of the first six month year or so, i actually see it going the other way. But when you Start Talking about the nixon era, in 1971, the thing people forget is when accent took us off of the gold standard, it was because of a trade dispute with japan and germany. He forced them each into a 17 devaluation of the currency. It didnt do anything. Ultimately, the fight just continued on. 1980 five court, sort of the same thing. Accord, 1985 plaza sort of the same thing. But that demand continues. Alix how does inflation feed into this forecast . Jeff it goes back to oil. Youre not going to see that price appreciation. We are setting a foundation for the inflation. I dont think we are going to see any downside. We are finally getting the cleanup of the excesses and structural overhang. That is why we like to be long commodities. But we dont see it really beginning to play out until you see the dealing with the excessive overhang. In the near term, we are cleaning up excess capacity. The Downside Risk to inflation is relatively low, but the real upside doesnt occur until youve got that. Just to bring the fed into this a little bit as well, when they restate their printables in january, likely to change their inflation target from asymmetrical target around 2 to an average over the Business Cycle type of target. It makes the hurdle for them to tighten policy or normalize even higher. Alix fairpoint. Youre sticking with me. We will talk about Central Banks and growth in just a moment. This is bloomberg. Alix this is bloomberg daybreak. I am alix steel. A very busy week lined up. S p futures going nowhere. Flat on the day. Weakness in europe. In other Asset Classes, youre looking at the cable rate at a seven month high and oil prices coming off of their 12 week high. Eurodollar trying to eke out some kind of gain, all looking forward to Christine Lagarde on thursday and the fed on wednesday. Economic data out as well. You have the biggest Central Banks, yacht and releasing their policy decisions. With the is barry knapp and jeff currie. We were talking about our Desert Island indicator, the one ecodata you have to get, and it is not coming this week. What you do for a week like this . Barry there are some big numbers. The cpi numbers and retail sales. Intimated about this in the last segment. There are three structural factors that have taken the correlation of the components of 70s when all the the prices were pushed together. That correlation is now zero. I would postulate those three factors are much greater elasticity and supply and energy because of shale, Technology Innovation adoption in the services sector, and global excess capacity in the old economy in goods. That has kept upward pressure on cpi. There are other areas starting to move like medical care inflation, really starting to move. Why the fed focuses on core pced, which just looks at medicare reimbursement rates, when everyone knows your deductibles have gone from 100 to 1000 over the last decade, the real cpi is a much better measure. To me, Energy Pricing starting to move, medical care going up, housing going up because the Housing Market has recovered, those are all upward pressure on inflation that should develop through the first part of the next year. Story is you the will have an inventory restocking. Bank of america is talking about that. Do you see that in the commodity world and where . Jeff we are still in the d stocking phase. That view from our macro perspective, you had the retail and the wholesale side. You talk about your core Natural Resources around the world, you are still withdrawing inventories, particularly with metals. You look at the demand for metals last year, it was the worst since 20082009, but supplies dropping even faster. It goes back to that structural overhang. We are finally cleaning up the excess of the industry, which is why we like being long. We do not see a lot of downside because of the fact that capex is off, inventories are declining. Before you get real inflation, you start to get the backwardation we are talking about. You do not get inflation until it leads to the pickup in capex. Alix do we need stimulus. The way you are talking, we talk a lot about fiscal stimulus, do we need that right now . Stimulusu say fiscal in this amorphous way drives me crazy. Theres a big difference between Government Spending japan they raise taxes on consumers and decided they would spend more. That recipe has not worked since the twin bubbles burst in 1989. Germany does not need more windmills and does not need faster autobahns. They need to restructure their tax code to spur innovation. No more autos, more tech. When that happens, you get that kind of stimulus, it is completely different than Government Spending throwing money at a problem. The last thing we need anywhere and develop moral in the developed worlds Government Spending to pick that capacity because that is what they will focus on. China was the biggest culprit and they have stopped. Alix didnt china run into problems as they tried to switch so fast natural gas, so faster cleaner technology, cleaner fuels, they wound up hurting companies and creating Zombie Companies . Randy the Zombie Companies work jeff the Zombie Companies were more in the old economy. They ran into capacity constraints. Last year it created cold people in china. They couldld not not get enough natural gas to substitute for the lawson the loss in coal. China is in the same place today when u. S. And europe was in the 1970s when he started to clean this guys. The pollution question is different from the carbon question. They are trying to clean up the pollution and reducing coal imports. Alix a perfect segue toward segment. Barry knapp, i will let you go. Always a pleasure. Jeff currie, you will stick with me. Speaking of cleaning up the air, one sector will face a lot of changes. That is shipping. Theres a plan to reduce offer emissions. It will going to effect january 1. Heres what you can expect. Vessels giveainer off as much pollution a 750 million cars and that is about to change. New International Maritime organization rolls hit january 20 and limit this offer content in maritime fuel. The rules are here to stay and you cannot cheat. If you do, you pay a big fine and risk your vessel being labeled as on seaworthy. Here are your options if youre a shipper. You can buy in exhaust gasoline scrubber which cleans out the sulfur dioxide. Most popular are open scrubbers but their released sludge into the ocean. The problem is certain countries like china and singapore are banning them and they come at a high price. Million two to 100 to 4 million. To as for these could go much as 100 billion barrels a day. Refiners can run u. S. Light crude to get diesel, potentially creating a glut or they can choose heavy crude that comes from canada or venezuela to get more diesel, but that is in tight supply. The result is not enough product, too much demand, and margins. A dealbreaker for smaller shipping firms. The result is some shippers lose money or go bankrupt while others see their business boom from moving more product around the world. It is good for some refiners, it is bad for others. Crude and product spreads go haywire and vessels turn to alternative products like lng. Anyway you slice it, i am out 2020 has the power to change imo 2020 has the power to change the shipping world. For more on eye ammo 2020 for more on imo 2020i am joined by randy giveans. 2020, as the industry prepares, you see most constructive on the industry being ok. Randy we likened it to y2k. You get a big run up. The one area which is going to see shortages going into 2020 is going to be on the low Sulfur Fuel Oil side. That is the fuel that is going to have to replace the old fuel. If you think about the external impact, the externality, what you do with all of the old high Sulfur Fuel Oil . We think you will find a home. You have upgrade capacity of refiners in the United States that used to take in the heavy oil from venezuela. The other is the high Sulfur Fuel Oil that will compete with the coal. As a result, one of the implementations of trading imo in 2020, we like to be short coal based on that. Coal is in the crosshairs of imo, carbon fighting, all of it together. Alix if youre obviously going to move stuff around, what does this due to tankers . Who is prepared . Who randy randy gets more business . There are two ways to comply. At oneto have scrubbers, is to buy low fuel. There are pros and cons to each. There is fuel compatibility each where you will have to mix together in a vacuum on their own, they are fine. Also, fuel availability. Say you have a scrubber and put an investment in, you get to abort and you then there are questions around further regulations in different regions , even if you have a scrubber, things of that nature. We still like vessels to have ,crubbers on their larger ships with the crude oil market burning 8090 tons of fuel a day. Expand, hfoarkets is collapsing, so that spread is captured by shipowner as large as they have a scrubber. Alix lets get to that. This is the High Sulfur Oil fuel index, the white line, versus the low sulfur fuel. Is this the correct pricing . Randy right now on a regional perspective, that is in barrels and you have to multiply that by 7. 2. If youre looking at on a global scale, pricing is up to about 550 per ton. Hfo so has fallen to about 250. That is january pricing when the regulations come into force. That is 300 a ton spread. Your payback period is about one year at those levels. We do think therell be some compression in the spreads as 2020 goes on, as more scrubbers at the water, increasing your spread but we think the will go up 250. Alix this creates a lot of dynamic spirit you have heavy crude and light crude. Even with oil staying at 63 and going nowhere, what underneath will be moving . Jeff the key will be the very low Sulfur Fuel Oil. Any of the Compliant Fuels you should see strength than those margins. When you think about complex refining margins, they will do well. The simple refining margins are likely to suffer. They are suffering right now. You have that balance between the light end and the dirty end. If we look at it from a macro perspective, the impact diminishes. When you think about the dynamics, they are focused on the complex refineries. The ships that have the scrubbers in place operate in the current environment cannot operate in the current environment. When you have the ones that cannot operate, those are the ones you want to be short. Alix what are the other disruptions we have to watch out for . In junee next imos 2020. The u. N. Pri is going to suggest that all the signatories of the , those Asset Managers that have signed on to this, 2500 of them, they manage 90 trillion. 50 of that needs to be dedicated to esg strategy on june 20 of next year. What is the easiest, lowest hanging fruit . It will be fossil fuels, metals and bindings. When we think about issues like imo 2020, the other thing is this u. N. Pri. Randy as you are saying, on a net effect, it could be preneutral. But you will see a lot of disruption in the tanker trade and that is good for rates. You will have the light barrels going to the simple refineries, the heavy barrels going to complex refineries. Already started to see ports import more. You will see some trade for floating storage and get geographical price armitage. A lot of expansion on the tankers even if the crude are just a Million Barrels a day higher. Alix randy giveans, thank you. Jeff currie of Goldman Sachs, always a pleasure. Coming up, we will talk about the appetite for Sustainable Impact investment in china. We will talk to priscilla lu and where she shes opportunity where she sees opportunity. Interact for our charts on gtv. Browse the features, check them out. Gtv. This is bloomberg. Viviana youre watching bloomberg daybreak. Newtek font will reportedly fall short of its 108 billion target. According to the sunday telegraph, big bets has hurt the division bonds. The massive investment in wework triggering a multimillion dollar right down. The filled had to provide a 9. 5 billion rescue package. Hsbc interim ceo shaking things up. The banks chief operating officer is retiring. Therell be a new chief risk officer, too. I am Viviana Hurtado. That is your Bloomberg Business flash. Alix time for the business of climate theory. We will look at Sustainable Investing in china. China is the Worlds Largest polluter of co2 emissions but some say this creates an opportunity. Has been investing in Tech Companies in health care in china for over 15 years. I asked her about the return profile and where the opportunity is. Priscilla for the assets that are being invested, i think in the renewable space it ranges from 5 to 11 to 12 depending on which region you invest in, what the area is, and what sector of the Renewable Energy assets you are investing in. For private equity and emerging countries and in china, youre looking at the high double digit percentages, close to 20 in some cases for private equity, especially the Sustainable Investment space. This is an area that is very much in need and growing extensively and quickly in this space. Alix if you take the whole lifecycle of treating water and piping the water into a home and charging the home for water on a big scale, where can you invest in that and where is the best return opportunity . Priscilla what happens is coming from the wasteWater Treatment. That is where the opportunity is. Industrial wastewater is hazardous to the environment and that impacts the drinking water, which is contaminated by the toxic chemicals. WasteWater Treatment, that is an area. Additionally, being able to recycle water used by the industry, graywater that can be reused is also an area of opportunity because industries are finding that more costeffective because the government can charge more for industry using water more than residential. Alix where you see the best return profile for you and water areas you still cannot touch. The areas for investors like ourselves are looking at areas that are Service Oriented and would have measurable impact in areas like waste and Water Resource Management and Renewable Energy. These are Environmental Resources that make a difference in terms of measurable impact. Those are open to international investors. Areas that are still very sensitive media. It is areas that are still restricted. Even in health care, it is very much open. That was previously somewhat restricted but now because of the need to accelerate the adoption of more advanced treatment in technology and medicine, that now is being opened up. Of how youther part invest has to do with agreements with corporations. Apple saying i want to green light supply chain, tell me how to do that. Can you walk me through that . Priscilla Many Companies are looking at how they can have an impact with mitigating their impact on the environment. The carbon footprint, the kilowatt hours, with green energy, with what their businesses are consuming, that is a very measurable offset. That are opportunities not only able to get a good return on the investment, investment in Renewable Energy and getting that upset, but also having a tremendous impact with having the ability to add additional Renewable EnergyPower Generation plants. It is more than Renewable Energy. There is also wastewater as well as Water Treatment and all of those sectors areas of opportunity. Alix that was my interview with priscilla lu. Coming up, we are watching resistance levels on crude in todays technically speaking. If youre jumping in your car, tune into Bloomberg Radio heard across the u. S. On sirius xm channel 119 and on the Bloomberg Business app. This is bloomberg. Alix time for technically speaking, setting you up for traits of the day. Bill maloney, voice of bloombergs squad joins me. Listen to bill all day if you type in squa on your terminal. We are talking oil. What does the chart tell you . Bill wti crude futures down 1 or show. It has been shopping around the two for a while. It has been in this trading range since may. Then you have the spike on the saudi oil attacks. To 62upport range is 52 and then you have resistance around 63. It is in a range. Beauty. Ts talk ulta that stock reported thursday night. Are we looking at potential on the 50 day . Bill a gap above the 50 day on friday. The key level as the 200 Day Moving Average resistance on friday. It was above 11 , broke above the 50, failed at the october highs, that is your resistance today. Alix macys is getting a downgrade this morning. When i was reading it i was like that is not surprising. What does the chart tell you . Being cuts down 2 , the cell over Goldman Sachs. The stock has been in this trading range since august. You have support around 14 or 1420. This stock is going straight down since 2015. Maybe the stock burned out around 14. Alix appreciated. Bill maloney of bloomberg. That wraps it up for me. The open is up next. Here, it all starts with a simple. Hello hi how can i help . A data plan for everyone. Everyone . Everyone. Lets send to everyone wifi up there . Uhh. Sure, why not . Howd he get out . a camera might figure it out. That was easy glad i could help. At xfinity, were here to make life simple. Easy. Awesome. So come ask, shop, discover at your local xfinity store today. Jonathan from new york city for our audience worldwide. Im jonathan ferro. The countdown to the open starts right now. Wrapping up 2019 and counting down to president trump. Chair powells final Rate Decision of the year ahead of Christine Lagardes first. Britain heading to the polls. Johnson stories looking to reclaim the majority. Here is your monday morning price action. Equities advanced declined rather by three points on the s p 500, down more than. 1 . The euro firmer at 1. 1076. Yields down three basis points to 1. 81. Lets begin with breaking news. Set breaking news. Let me cross over to kailey leinz to get us up to speed. Kailey paul volcker has died at 92 years old according to the new york times. That news was confirmed by his daughter. He was a Treasury Department official under multiple u. S. And ministrations and reserve official in the 1970s and 1980s. He created the volcker rule. He has died at 92 years old. Jonathan thank