Up a percentage point. We will get their earnings after the bell. Ie also finished higher chewy also finished higher. Scarlet volume was pretty light, 12 below the average. Part, market breadth was fairly negative as well. Of negative to positive. Lets dive deeper into the action with our markets reporters across the different asset classes. Abigail i would like to bring bonds into the equation. We are looking at here, in white, our treasury futures. Last six months or so, both are higher but sideways. Growth in stocks going higher at the same time. Since september, basically a downtrend for the 10 year eat treasury note. Downtrend, it could suggest that the recent choppy action we have had for stocks. This week, keep a close eye on this chart. I wanted to look at the volumes. Earlier this morning, we were looking at volume trading on the yetf, which tracks the entire index. Bond trading down 40 , relative isthe s p 500 index where it down less. Typically when the s p 500 etf, the spy, much more attractive during volatility. Single trading is much more attractive money relative basis when the Broader Market is calmer because you really can cherry pick. Today, volatilities going up a little bit. Falling in little bit as people can cherry pick some of that individual data. Reportbviously, the jobs little way expectations last week. A little softness today. The s p 500 still hanging near the record high. I want to look at what has been Morgan Stanley we did this out in a note this morning Consumer Discretionary stocks to the s p 500 remains well below the 200 day moving average. To mike wilson and his colleagues at Morgan Stanley, Downside Risk and growth remain a little bit higher than upside risk. Consumer discretionary, they think we are clearly in the late part of the economic cycle. Now starting to discount a little bit of a slow down ahead, and may be seeing a little more weakness in the economic data. Still with us at the desk, kristen bitterly. In the voice of Bloomberg News global macro, vince. We had a down day today, 0. 3, 0. 4 percent. Every 10 we have had a significant down day, we have seen it come back within a couple of days. Is the backdrop still favorable . Vince what we have been seeing in the past few weeks, when bad news comes up, markets go down, then it recovers nicely. The markets trading more positively on good news and less negatively on negative news. Positionare people right now . There has been talk of people still needing to play catch up. The rotation we saw starting in august may be catching people by surprise. Are there still a lot of discretionary investors out there . I think there are a lot of investors who have been underinvested this year. September was the one option where we saw positive flows into emerging markets equities. Significant cash on the sidelines. We did an analysis where it is about 12 trillion in household cash, 1 trillion in dry powder. It basically equals 60 of the market capitalization of the s p 500. If anything, that tells you from a technical standpoint that there is support in terms of buying the dips. Volatility,ee this our recommendation is to buy. Scarlet people on the sidelines, what are they waiting for . Kristen i think any of these minor pullbacks as well as trade. They have to reach a certain point to feel really come double comfortable but i think trade is the big overhang. We have seen a lot of put selling from investors, basically getting paid to wait for your ideal entry point. Volatility today, you could basically use that to your toantage, sell puts about 5 7 below what the market is trading. In this fixed income environment where people are trying to find yields and then you have people sitting on the sidelines waiting to get in, that is an ideal strategy to get paid to wait for your entry point. Romaine the putcall ratio is still pretty low. Well above the average we would have over the course of the year. Even if you factor in what we have seen in the fix and the index,vix and the skew it is hard to sort of find it. Vince volatility has been low all year. The much better strategy is the buy options. It make it a little tricky, we could see vol take up. Going into next year, it is probably the strategy that will pay again. Kristen it is one thing if you make the assumption that everyone is fully invested. Since, we have not seen those volumes with the exception of a few large transactions. Scarlet where is it most severe . Geographically. Kristen internationally, by far. Bias,ou look at the especially in the u. S. , there is such a home bias. Scarlet Christian Kristen bitterly, thank you so much. Vince, voice of the Bloomberg News squak. Aou can check it out on squ on your terminal. Romaine stitch fix moving higher in after hours trading. The company did report a loss but basically this was above what analysts were looking for. 440evenue coming in at million. The estimate was for 441. Ipo, whenther recent public back in september. The Company Moving a little bit lower. It does appear with some of the main metrics. It is giving some guidance with fullyear net sales coming in it 4. 8 b coming in at illion. A story we update to told you about earlier. Morgan stanley cutting jobs as part of an efficiency drive. They are now set to face a 150 million to 200 million charge with those job cuts. Morgan stanley to face up to 200 million in charges because of these job cuts of 1500 jobs. That does it for the closing bell. Whatd you miss . Is up next where we will be looking at the u. K. Election coming up in a few days. This is bloomberg. Live from bloomberg World Headquarters in new york, im romaine bostick. Here is a snapshot of how u. S. Stocks closed today. Nasdaq allp, and down marginally. Democrats in the white house finding common ground, closing in on a potential u. S. Congressional approval of the new north american trade deal. U. K. Voters prepare to lead to the polls, deciding the fate of Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his plan to make good on brexit. Morgue Morgan Stanley eliminating 1500 jobs. Chargebe facing a hefty tied to those cuts. Cyin tral bankers vying with trade negotiators for attention this week. The Federal Reserve and ecb making their final monetary decisions of the year on wednesday and thursday. Signs that Global Growth is starting to stabilize. It will be the first meeting with Christine Lagarde since she became president of the ecb. Joining us, balch year, senior chear, senior fellow at the Harvard Kennedy school. There are stories that things are stabilizing, maybe the cuts worked. Is it too early to declare that the gosar clear . Paul i think there is a shortterm story and longterm story. Shortterm, that ecb and the fed recalibrate their position to a somewhat less robust Global Economic outlook and risks around the trade war, etc. Longerterm, the fed is undertaking a strategic review. Lagarde at the ecb signaled she would be launching a review. The ecb has some problems on their plate in terms of not having ammunition, either Interest Rate ammunition or Balance Sheet ammunition. Scarlet that is something they dont talk about regularly during the news conference. They address the more concrete issues of, are you changing your forecast. The fan will be the fed will be releasing projections on thursday. Paul obviously, the fed, the focus will be on Economic Projections that come out every quarter. The question, what is the fomc itself signaling . I think most people think that probably next year, the median forecast of the fomc will be for rates to remain where they are, particularly in the election year. After that, looking for some gradual increases. Romaine a year ago, we were talking about the fed raising rates. We got three rate cuts despite the fact that we were never really headed for a recession. If we had not gotten those three rate cuts, do you think we would now be talking today about a recession as almost a certain date . Almost a certainty . Paul that is a question about the potency of Monetary Policy. Perhaps headwinds for growth. Believe points, i dont that is the difference between butssion and plain sailing, continuing to monitor, recalibrate policy positions, make sure it is achieving its objectives. In retrospect, history will probably look back. We did have the president in 2018 saying the fed is going too far. As an economist myself, i did not think they needed to hike that much. Might be a bitter pill to swallow for the fed but maybe President Trump actually called this one right. Rates so low,cy some and often fiscal authorities, some handoff to fiscal authorities, they will need to do more. Should fiscal policy have been a much more aggressive part of the mix going back even further, even when ostensibly Central Banks had more bullets to fire . Paul i came as a macro economist out of japan and i have been arguing for decades, call it secular stagnation or a great recession, monetary and fiscal policy has to be used. With the separation of Monetary Policy from the rest of the Economic Policy framework and central bankers being given the main task of maintaining aggregate demand, the onus falls on them. When a central bank is falling is running low on Interest Rate ammunition, that is a time when the time is come to bring in fiscal policy but not on a temporary basis, but help wanted terry policy out help Monetary Policy out. Scarlet with negative Interest Rates, the slew of stories that talk about the japanification of europe and the u. S. Is multiplying. What do you think the likelihood of us seeing negative rates in the u. S. . The president is pushing for it. Paul the fed has signaled clearly that they do not like the idea of negative Interest Rates. I think that is the right stance. I am not a fan of negative Interest Rates. It is a counterintuitive concept to get your at around. Once you are in that negative Interest Rate territory, isnt that really telling you that you have leaned too much on that tool. Why arent you using fiscal policy . You can tug about the expenditures, the tax you can talk about the expenditures, the tax, what makes you want. We into negative territory, they are more likely to use quantitative easing, Forward Guidance type tools, and second, maybe a not so subtle hint to the authorities. Scarlet time to step it up. P aul sheard, thank you so much. Has reported ag agelin. Agile and netflix is falling in the after hours trade. There had been some speculation he likely did not take his stake. That billsing on ackman position. Romaine Robert Lighthizer, the u. S. Trade representative, and Jared Kushner, heading apparently to mexico on tuesday for usmca talks. One of the hangups here is what is going on in the u. S. Congress, getting that deal approved. Apparently two of the top trade negotiators heading to mexico. We are going to talk about the new nafta deal next. This is bloomberg. Scarlet were going to recap some of the breaking there. Bloomberg learning that the Trump Administration and mexico have reached a tentative deal on the trade agreement. We have just learned that Robert Lighthizer and Jared Kushner will be heading to mexico tomorrow. Joining us with the latest is bloomberg congressional reporter eric watson. We were talking about this and how we felt there was this urgency around usmc to get it done soon. Is there a deadline . Eric they are trying to get it done before recess on december 20. We are learning that the head of the aflcio, richard trumka, met with donald trump earlier today. We are expecting nancy pelosi to talk to her Time Leadership people and we may see a deal announcement at that time, 5 00 or 6 00 p. M. Arbitration panels, enforcement of the overall deal, have been sealed. There was a hiccup on steel rules of origin. At this moment, looking all positive usmca. Joe i have read and heard reports that there is a sizable faction within the Democratic Party that really wants a vote. Eric this is really wrapped up with impeachment. We are hearing from democrats and the key swing districts that they dont want to go home with having only voted on impeachment. If they go home to say, we did not have any major legislative achievements but we did vote to impeach the president , they will be in trouble. They are telling nancy pelosi privately, we have that on Good Authority that this needs to be something. Possible movement on a bipartisan prescription drugs package in the senate. There is a push from the moderates to show that they can legislate while they investigate. Romaine the market reaction, at least in equities, relatively muted, as it was in the bond market. Can you quantify the economic impact, economic benefit, should this finally get ratified . Erik this shows less than 1 gdp differential. It is a small ball deal. However, we have china talks, this major threat of tariffs. If the u. S. Trade representative can seal this deal, that they boost confidence. , there is of the day some knock on effect. There is a bit of a difference from nafta in the auto sector, especially the wage floor it creates and mexico. Overall, it is a small ball economic deal. Romaine lets get a quick check of the latest business flash headlines. Amazon claims the pentagon failed to fairly judge its bid for a club contract worth up to 10 billion a cloud contract worth up to 10 billion. They say this because President Trump views jeff bezos as his enemy. The pentagon contract ended up going to microsoft. The worlds most valuable Marijuana Company has named a two ceo name day new ceo. Ceo. Ame a new the consolation brands ceo. Owns part of canopy and it is said this boosts the chances of constellation buying canopy on right. Unlimited free stock trades to all customers on the merill edge platform. That follows Charles Schwabs decision to eliminate charges and acquire td ameritrade. Coming up, Boris Johnson has a bad day. How the Prime Minister was put on the defensive as Health Takes Center Stage in the election. That is coming up next. This is bloomberg. Tradition the House Judiciary Committee convened today to formally receive the investigative findings against President Trump. Democrats pushed for impeachment and the white house and allies launched an aggressive attack on the proceedings. Chairman Jerrold Nadler was immediately interrupted by a protester shouting, we voted for donald trump. The protester was escorted from the hearing room by capitol police. Chairman nadler pushed and with the remarks, saying President Trump put himself before the country. The president of the united states, the speaker of the house, chief justice of the supreme court, all have one important thing in common, we have each taken an oath to preserve, protect, and defend the constitution of the united states. The president puts himself before the country, he violates the president s most basic responsibility. Mark House Majority leader Kevin Mccarthy criticized mcgrath for their timeline, which he says is criticized democrats for their timeline of which he says is aimed to prevent voters from making their own decision in the election. Natong with secretarygeneral today to discuss defense. It took place in brussels. Both men later underline the importance of natoeu cooperation. Stoltenberg said the eu cannot replace nato when it comes to the defense of europe. He stressed that a proposed European Defense union would not be an alternative to nato. To build a genuine European Defense union, which is not an , notnative to nato something apart from nato, it is a complenment. Meaningful and strong cooperation, sharing of responsibility of our security and citizens. That stoltenberg added stronger European Defense is contributing to more sharing with nato. As many as 13 people may have died following a volcanic eruption on new zealands white island. Police said early tuesday new zealand time that five people are confirmed dead and eight are missing and presumed dead after the eruption sunday afternoon. Ando those who are lost missing family and friends, we share in your grief at this moment of sorrow. We grieve with you. To our australian family, we will do everything to support you as you have supported us. Authorities send the site was still too dangerous hours ater to search, but Reconnaissance Aircraft has seen no signs of life. Global news 24 hours a day on air and at tictoc on twitter, bloomberg,icktake by powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. Romaine some breaking news. French pharmaceutical maker say it will stop its research in diabetes and cardiovascular disease. This announcement comes just a few hours after the company said it would buy a big maker of cancer drugs. Paul hudson, who took over in september, said back then that he would review the companys businesses and potentially benefit to some faster growing potential pivot to some faster growing areas. U. K. Voters heading to the polls in three days. Conservatives are still leading but some are worried about complacency. Advisor a political from london. It seems that, by all outward measures, this is kind of a done deal regards to the conservatives retaining power in parliament. Does that also mean that brexit itself is a done deal . Brexit itself is certainly not a done deal. As to be said that one of the most successful slogans that the current Prime Minister boris has been using is get brexit done. That seems to have a cut through. This has been going on for three years. Ironically, Boris Johnson is responsible for that. Passes hiswins and withdrawal agreement, that is only the first part of brixon. That is actually the easiest part the second part is striking. Future trade deal argument that said, just vote for us, get it , that maybe people who voted remain say, you know what nina anecdotally, hearing from people canvassing up and down the countryside, the get exit done messages coming through to both leave voters and remain voters. Whatever your political persuasion, i think that now people are fed up with exit. There is a huge brexit fatigue in the country. It is certainly cutting through to the voters. There are lots of other things. Lots ofies have made promises about spending in particular. I think the brexit issue is having the most cut through. Bottom line, the u. K. Is still divided as it was. What happened to the liberal democrats, who were doing pretty well . Swinson became the leader of that party and had a lot of momentum behind her. That push to cancel brexit should have resonated with a good portion of the population. It doesnt seem to have done very much. Nina if you months ago when Boris Johnson became the Prime Minister, it looked like he might be leading u. K. Out of the eu without a deal. That would have economically been the worst scenario. Of lib dems became the party revoke and remain. It seems that they could have really profited from that electorally. Boris johnson missed the deadline, he did not take them out without a deal, and he called the election. He managed somehow to pass the deal that was essentially theresa mays deal, and not make it about no deal brexit or remain. What has happened is that the brexit party, led by nigel fara ge, is not standing in a lot of seats. The remain vote is split between labor and the lib dems. Romaine is there a possibility that folks will be surprised when they wake up the next day, similar to what we had in 2016 . Nina it is very dangerous to make political predictions. It would not take much for there to be a hung parliament. If you think that the political quagmire has been bad for the past few years, if you have a hung parliament, that will be continuing because there is not a clear way forward. If there is a conservative majority, at least you know that Boris Johnsons brexit deal will pass parliament. If there is a hung parliament, we will be back at square one. Joe going into the 2017 election, i think most people then wemay would win, got the shock result and they had to cobble together that coalition. Is there any evidence it is heading that way . Is there data showing this order are people so afraid to think that maybe the polls are not accurate . All of the polls, or most of the polls, got it wrong in 2017, apart from a big mrp poll done by yougov. Using the same modeling this year, they show conservatives on course to win a majority. However, in 2017, there was a big shock. Has had hisn moment. He is definitely not as loved in the country now as he was in 2017 and in large part, that has to do with his obfuscation on exit. He has lost a lot of remain supporters but also a lot of brexit voters. I think that friday morning, i dont know if Jeremy Corbyn will pull off that same surprise as 2017. Equivocating and not really taking a stance. A reminder to tune into our special coverage of thursdays election. We will be bringing you the latest starting at 5 00 p. M. New york time, 10 00 p. M. London. This is bloomberg. Isrlet Morgan Stanley eliminating about 1500 jobs globally in a bookstore deficiency. Push tobring in in a improve efficiency. Is there a strategy here or is this about reducing headcount overall . They have to meet efficiency targets they set, cut costs. Revenue has been a tough numerator. So you have to look at saving where you can. Joe in terms of the general conditions that Morgan Stanley, are they worse as anywhere else or is this temperature we ares across the industry the same pressure we are seeing across the industry . Ny definitely something we are seeing from other banks. In this, they call that out in the Technology Unit for the bank. We have seen banks invest more in automation and other technologies so we knew that some of these backoffice jobs would disappear. Amaine when we look at broader picture of job cuts, a law was based out of european banks. Some in the past months. Will we start seeing more on the u. S. Side . Jenny when you have the rate environment as we do in the u. S. , that would probably lead to more. Scarlet in terms of the cost of these job cuts, a charge of up to 200 million in the fourth quarter. Is that big, a little . Jenny when you think of the kind of severance, these job cuts include managing directors. It is a big number but probably not super material in the grand scheme of things. Romaine thanks for being here. Yur thanks to bloombergs jenn surane. Intoi stopping Research Diabetes and cardiovascular disease as part of a larger reorganization. Riley griffith joining us now. We knew that when we had this blockbuster deal announced less than 24 hours ago, that seemed to be a hint they were pivoting more toward cancer therapy. 2. 5 they announced a billion play. A trend we have seen throughout this year. Bristolmyers deal. This has been a year of cancer deals. It about this moment right now that so many of these legacy players feel like they need to buy into a space like this . Riley they say we are in a medical renaissance when it comes to cancer therapy. These are drugs that are treating much unmet diseases. The money is just there moving forward. Scarlet the money as there, the growth is there. Treatment, itncer has to give up some of its focus on diabetes and heart disease. Is that because some of these toments have been doled out drugmakers . With scrutiny over time drug pricing. Surprisewill come as a to investors who think of sanofi of an insulin maker first and foremost. Romaine a company had a partnership with sanofi. What is the future of that relationship . Riley i dont have an answer to that question but i think you are seeing other Companies Still make place. Deal for ast made a Medicine Company that had a cardiovascular drug. You are seeing angen make a ptsk9 inhibitor. Joe great stuff. Rayk you bloombergs Riley Griffin breaking down the news. This is bloomberg. Ahead. W to Asia Hong Kong seeing it is protests in months has hundreds of thousands of testers took to the streets yesterday. 800,000rs sing about people say about 800,000 people turned out. Shery ahn. In bergs t does this latest proto protest say about the claim that down . Calmed thousands ofds of people came out, depending on where you are looking at it, it is still hundreds of thousands of people recently numbers have increased is because for the first time as august First Time Since august, this part of tape this prodemocracy group was able to receive Police Approval which meant young children, parents, seniors into the streets. Mostly peaceful but at the end we did see some clashes between police and protesters. Romaine is this the kind of thing that will sway carrie lam and others in charge . Shery that is what the protesters are open but we have not seen despite the fact that we saw that landslide victory in the elections. Carrie lam still refusing to give into the protester demands. One of the gang the one of them being the independent inquiry into the use of force by police. Even probation lawmakers saying lawmakers pro beijing saying perhaps it is time. Jinp course, president xi ing has given his total support behind carrie lam. Lamhat is the case, carrie needs to really show courage and convince whatever parties there are blocking the commission for inquiry. That we cannot forget these are not just prodemocracy protesters on the streets. We saw hundreds of progovernment protesters coming out on saturday, waving chinese and hong kong flags. Scarlet talk about the impact on businesses. Index the hung sing the hang seng index. No real change year to date. Ground,now that on the things are bad. Retail sales continue to tumble, hong kong in a recession. Shery you also have to compare it to mainland markets. About 20 . S surged the fact that the hung saying that the hang seng has not gone anywhere is pretty bad. This chart showing retail sales taking, together with the number of mainland visitors coming from china. Together with these tensions flaring, over the weekend, we saw the head of the u. S. Chamber of commerce in hong kong denied entry to macau. No explanation why but we know that the u. S. Congress has passed some legislation that beijing was not happy with. The Retail Association saying that 5600 retail jobs in hong kong could be lost. Fiscalnetary policy and policy, nothing will do much until a truce. Saw two shery we packages, both saying that the fiscal multiplier is not that strong. Carrie lam saying she wants to institute a set of measures but we have not seen anything yet and it would be again targeted so that would not impact the broader economy. Scarlet i go back to the saying that this requires a political solution. For more, dont miss daybreak asia starting at 6 00 p. M. Eastern time. Meetingss this, the ecb takes place tomorrow in geneva. Chinaumbers for ppi in out tomorrow. Lumber technology is up next in the u. S. Beyond the routine checkups. Beyond the notsoroutine cases. Comcast business is helping doctors provide care in whole new ways. All working with a new generation of technologies powered by our gigspeed network. Because beyond technology. There is human ingenuity. Every day, comcast business is helping businesses go beyond the expected. To do the extraordinary. Take your business beyond. Taylor i am taylor riggs in San Francisco and this is bloomberg. Chnology lawyers for tmobile and sprint had court wednesday. Cleanup crew. Goldman sachs arranging a massive line of credit to help with one of
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