But most fiscal spending happens at the National Level still here in europe. The numbers are still relatively large. There is just a lack of coordination when it comes to providing aid for the more stressed out economies like italy. The core countries like france and germany are able to spend money at a National Level. Stocks are down here. Theyve rolled over in the last 10 to 15 minutes. Bundbtpye on the spread because that highlights what is happening between the core and the periphery. 1. 0882. Ar, the dollar catching a little bit of a bid today. Brent crude coming back a bit, as well. The thing i would highlight is the volume on the equity market is very low today. This doesnt feel like its got a lot of conviction behind it. Lets start the conversation where alix was mentioning it was in washington. Democratic leaders in congress pushing for nearly 500 billion in the next round of stimulus, double what the Trump Administration is seeking. For more, we are joined by Anna Edgerton come up bloomberg editor. Is it coming together . Are we starting to see the size and shape of the phase four stimulus deal . Rightwhat we are seeing now is tension between how ambitious they want to be for the next phase and how quickly they want to get it done. The trump is pushing for a quick infusion of 250 billion to bolster this Small Business program that was passed in the last stimulus package. Democrats, however, would like to see more in terms of aid for local and State Governments, for unemployment insurance, and to have more conditions only Small Business loans to make sure that minority owned and womenowned businesses are included in that. Alix can you give us some perspective as to how partisan this all is, or bipartisan . Are people really behind this across party lines . Anna theres kind of been an offercounter offer, and there hasnt been the biting partisan backandforth weve seen in other exchanges, so there is hope they will get this done. I think leaders in both parties realize this is an urgent time for the economy, that they need to get this quick infusion of cash to Small Businesses that employ about half of working americans. The other question is how they are going to get this passed. If they want to pass it quickly this week, they would need to do that with unanimous support from every single number of congress, which is really hard to do. They could force a vote to force numbers to come back to take votes on this. Guy there seems to be a plan emerging that those areas less affected by the virus would be the first to open, and areas like new york would come later. Do we understand the complexity here . What are the criteria that are going to be used for reopening this giant economy in the United States as quickly as possible . Ofa it is going to be a bit a different challenge in the United States than the other countries. Diverse is so big and that you do have areas that have been less affected. The real answer to doing this safely and appropriately is testing, and that is where we really need to see whether or not the federal government and State Government can make sure that they have a grasp on the level of infections in different areas, so that is what we will be looking for this week is the ministry should begins to rollout plans as the ministrys and to rollout plans as the administration begins to rollout plans for areas that have not been as affected. Alix which leads to the testing we will have to have to reopen parts of the economy. Testing to see if you have the antibodies, if you have the virus. What is the conversation around that right now . Anna theres a few different ways the testing could go. One is the test they have been using come the nasal swab. Theres only about 18,000 machines in the United States that can process these, but that has become a bit of a bottleneck. There are some labs pushing to this rapid test that would allow for the widespread pinpointing of where the hot spots are and where they could be emerging next. Test being developed to test for antibodies in the blood of people who have already had the virus. That is promising because the hope is that if the person has these antibodies, they are less susceptible to becoming reinfected, and they can kind of go out into the economy and participate in their normal lives with less concern about whether or not they are going to be affected again in the future. Guy does all kind of talk about people wearing different colored wristbands depending on whether theyve had it or havent had it. I want to talk about what is happening with Small Business. Yesterday we were talking about the bottleneck in the united kingdom, money not getting too Small Business enough. That seems to be an emerging theme in the United States. Where are the bottlenecks . Where are the problems . Anna this Paycheck Protection Program that was part of the reallyimulus passed has had a rocky rollout so far. The first day was last friday. It has been hard for especially the smallest businesses. The program is designed for companies with less than 500 people. What we are seeing is that some of the mediumsized firms that already have loan relationships with banks and already have been approved for credit have quicker access to this because of some of the regulations on banks and how they lend, and how familiar they are with the companies they are lending to. ,hat leaves Smaller Companies of five people, say, waiting at the back of the line for these loans. There is concern that the aid package is going to run out before those who need it most can access it. That is where the extra infusion of cash the Trump Administration has asked for comes in. Hopefully that will get through so things can continue lending, and make sure all of the companies that need it have access. Alix and of course, it all goes to get a ready to getting rid of some capital restraints as part of that. Anna edgerton, thank you very much. This is bloomberg. Guy welcome back. Youre watching bloomberg daybreak bloomberg markets. Lets get some details with taylor riggs. The u. S. Markets, we are starting to rebound a little bit after yesterdays wild session. On the s p 500, we were up 3. 5 , then had the biggest oneday swing, and trying to end barely in positive territory. You also broke 12 Straight Days of 12 or more of 1 or more yesterday. Now we are up about 0. 4 after being up more than 1 earlier today. It does seem like there continues to be a lot of debate about the future direction of these markets. The russell 2000, some of the smallcap Domestic Companies are the clear outperformers today. Those are really dependent on the u. S. Economy. We did hear from dr. Fauci in the u. S. That maybe we are nearing a peak. I want to tick a look at where we are from where we were on march 23. We are starting to inch up to close about 20 from the lows. That level on the s p 500 would be 2684. Again, we would have to be closing at these levels, not just hitting an intraday number on that. Crude is certainly getting a boost today. Some of the Oil Companies are waiting for the talks to appear and to develop between saudi arabia and russia, starting to cut some of that supply. There was a note out this morning saying that demand has slumped more than 70 at the worlds thirdbiggest consumer, as India Remains on lockdown. China, the u. S. , and india make up 40 of global demand, and all of us are still on relative lockdown. Flipping up the board again, i want to finish out i looking at the bond market. Ubs had a really interesting note this morning saying that the Federal Reserve could expand its corporate buying program to double be rated debt to bbrated debt. But they are skeptical that they will make the stretch to address solvency risk. Bb theuld be bbs could be exception to that, according to ubs strategists. Guy i few a little left out i didnt get a shout out on the oil story, but nevertheless. [laughter] lets talk more about what is happening in these markets. We are joined over the phone by christian lawrence, rabobank rates and fx strategist. Trading at expected 109 at exactly 100 now. Are you a buyer or a seller . Christian i am a buyer at these levels. Dont think we have seen the worst of the em selloff, although we are likely to see great differentiation Going Forward. The dollar, obviously some of comeullish movement has lines for the swap repo facilities, which are simply swap lines of currencies you dont trust. I think we will see continued inflows into the u. S. The bottom line, when we are in this sort of environment, seeing this sort of stretch, everyone still wants dollars. Any pullback i think is a buying opportunity rather than the start of a dollar bear market. Whereeve got a situation we dont have any coordination in europe. We cant figure out how to get everybody on the same page. Italy is looking like it could essentially be in real trouble here when it comes to its debt to gdp ratio at the end of all is this. Do i sell the euro on the back of this, or does it not matter . Christian im a little bit surprised at quite how was ilion the euro has been because as you mentioned, we have a lot of looking acrossms the covid19 crisis, which is very difficult to do. As you pointed out, we are going to see a lot of structural issues within the euro zone as a whole. At the margin, i am certainly a seller at these levels. I do think any move up to that 1. 10 level is to be faded. Do i thing we revisit the lows . Im not convinced on that. I would rather accelerate any move up to that level, certainly. Alix i guess i am just confused. It implies that your view would seem the u. S. Would recover better than europe, for example. Why is that, when we are going to see less unemployment in europe . If the crisis is a bit shorter, wouldnt they recover better . Christian i sent my outlook on the dollar is actually a little bit diverged from the underlying economic story. One thing we have seen over recent years is the relationship between the u. S. Dollar and u. S. Interest rates has broken down, and i think whenever we are in these sort of high stress environment where we are seeing these global shocks, we do continue to see the dollar trade at this safe haven. The bottom line is the build up in dollar denominated debt outside the u. S. Over the last reliance on the eurodollar is just so extreme at the moment that i think people are still running into dollars, whether it is Portfolio Managers or companies trying to shore up their dollar holdings. This is really a question of capital protection rather than capital appreciation, and i think that when we are looking for the most solid solution, what would you rather have . Its the u. S. Dollar. Alix thats a fair distinction. Does that mean you think the liquidity issues with the dollar have been fixed . It feels like maybe if you see continued manned, we are going to see continued issues within the market. Alix i think so. Christian i think so. I dont think it is complete fixed. We have seen some very large demand put over the structural cracks in the offshore dollar system, and that has provided some relief. We only need to look at cross currency basis swaps. But this isnt a panacea. We will still see pressures emerging, and i dont think we have seen the worst of that. From that perspective, i think people are trying to get ahead of a little bit to prepare for that and load up on dollars. Guy the british from minister is still in the icu. The pound is trading your session highs. Again, your outlook on sterling. I thinkn certainly, sterling is going to be a little more vulnerable Going Forward to data releases. I mentioned the diversions between the dollar and u. S. Rates and u. S. Fundamentals. We are certainly not seeing that in the u. K. The current account deficit in the u. K. Does leave sterling more vulnerable to these we domestic outlooks, and of course, we know that data are going to get substantially worse. I dont think we are going to revisit the lows, but i do think we will trade sub 1. 20 again. One thing i should note on that front is that that Cable Exchange rate, there are very strong seasonality in play across april and may. If we look at the last 10 years, we tend to see cable selloff during april and then rally a little bit during may. Theres been very few exceptions since 2005. We seem cable rally in every april except 2018. But looking at may, sterling has lost against the dollar every year going back to 2010. I do think it is worth being aware of that because we have seen seasonals have quite a big impact on that particular exchange rate. What is the longterm picture here . We started off this conversation talking about debt loads in italy. Debt loads are going to be really extreme at the end of all of this. We are probably going to have curve control coming through from a number of different central banks, not just the boj. We are going to see low rates for a very long time. But the ultimate end game is increasingly looking like it could be some degree of monetization. How does that work from a foreignexchange point of view . How will this process happen as we try and get debt loads down, and which currencies benefit to lose in this scenario . Christian you are quite right, this is the 1 trillion question. Even when we look at the interestrate market, you can see a little bit of a to and fro between concerns about physical deterioration on the longerterm basis. In the shortterm, it is not going to be the main driver because we are dealing more with the matter at hand. But certainly looking at the longerterm horizon, these are going to be an increasingly important dynamic. I would argue we are essentially seeing debt monetization through the backdoor at the moment. In terms of the currencies that can weather that, the simple answer is was irv currencies. The u. S. Is clearly the standout is reserved currencies. The u. S. Is clearly the standout. I dont see how we dont continue to mark the dollar, and how that would stand out completely. The u. K. Can support a little bit more from that perspective, but when we are taking a longer term view, this is going to be absolutely key. I would rather be a buyer of currencies. This is a big one for emerging markets. We know emergingmarket currencies are far more susceptible to fiscal slippage. Mexico would be the case in point, given the shortterm outlook is pretty negative when it comes to the countrys fiscal starts. Alix 100 right there. Wrapping oil, and just forget about it. This is bloomberg. Alix you are watching bloomberg markets. Im alix steel. Its time for your meeting moment. Heres taylor riggs your muni moment. Heres taylor riggs. Taylor joining me is the head of municipal trading at advisors asset management. The last time we spoke, you are struggling with liquidity in the market. Has anything improved . Guest yes, it has definitely improved, but we are not out of the woods yet. We are starting to see a little bit of recovery and a little but of opportunity out there, but it is definitely not back where it should be or back to what i would call normal. Taylor i want to talk about some of the opportunities out there. I know it is a risky time to take some credit on the spectrum, but we havent seen yields in the muni market in years. Is now a time when you are starting to see some attractive yields and opportunity . Christopher you definitely are. A really good barometer is looking at three refunded bonds that have been escrowed in u. S. Treasury debt. Fiveyear Municipal Bonds that are prerefunded somewhere around 300 of the comparable u. S. Treasury, see you are basically getting a treasury backed Municipal Bond taxfree at 300 of the comparable treasury is. Taylor is that something you are looking at buying . Christopher yes, theres a lot of activity in that space due to government changes over the recent years. There are fewer and fewer of these bonds available at the present time, but when you can find these bonds, a lot of safety, and want that is very attractive to a lot of investors in the market. Taylor i want to talk about intervention by the fed. Has the Federal Reserve done enough to intervene in the muni market, or would you look to see more . Christopher i am kind of betwixt and between, so to speak. I think they have done a decent amount. It is a good starting point. It is clearly not enough to get them out of the woods. My concern is exactly how they go about doing this. One of the things they have talked about is potentially getting involved in the secondary market, and that can get really challenging and thepy quite easily, given nascent municipal market. I would hate for the fed to be in the position of choosing winners and losers, whether it is buckets or whether whether it is municipals or whether it is investors. I do not know how they would go about doing that, to be honest. Taylor how are you navigating this to investors when they come to you . We are taking a look at some of the credits like illinois, petering on the brink of junk. How do you navigate all of these, particularly when you look at fallen angels . Christopher the first thing you can do is not panic. When the bad news hits or when things start to look this lobbyist in terms of getting liquidity on those types of credits, that is when panic might set in. Investors tend to sell at the worst time in the market when that sets in. When it gets a little more liquid and things settle in, then it is time to reinvestigate , possibly liquidating those type of credits and upgrading it and upgrading in credit quality. The weaker credits tend to outperform the rest of the minnis poem market. The municipal market. That presents a challenge for investors. So getting out of them a little more opportunistically when the market feels ok is probably a better approach than waiting until things sound really bad. Taylor our thank you to chris , head of municipal trading at advisors assetmanagement. Guy thank you very much indeed. Up next, not a conversation on commodities, but advertising. W eb ceo mark read, next. This is bloomberg. Beyond the routine checkups. Beyond the notsoroutine cases. Comcast business is helping doctors provide care in whole new ways. All working with a new generation of technologies powered by our gigspeed network. Because beyond technology. There is human ingenuity. Every day, comcast business is helping businesses go beyond the expected. To do the extraordinary. Take your business beyond. To bloombergback markets. We are getting ready for the latest read of the oil markets for the opec meeting tomorrow and the g20 Oil Ministers meeting friday. These numbers out right now, overall crude inventories wow, this is a huge build. They are up by mi even reading this right . 15 Million Barrels. That is a huge number. Gasoline inventories seeing almost an 11 million barrel bid. Utilization for refineries down by almost 7 . Demand isnt terrible for gasoline distillates and crude, which is a little bit odd, but these numbers are pretty bad. Like the initial jobless claims tomorrow, we know they are going to be pretty bad. Oil inventories will rise, demand is going to fall off. The question is what kind of dislocation will we wind up seeing within the market and certain crude grades as we are waiting for any kind of cut to support the market. I should point out that wti is holding on to some kind of gains ate, still up by about 4. 5 24 a barrel. Arlier today, i spoke to company that is in the middle of this difficult situation when it comes to Global Growth and how the recovery winds up playing out. I spoke exclusively with wpp ceo mark read about the state of global advertising. That slum could be as much as 10 this year. That slump could be as much as 10 this year. Mark there are other sectors, health, goods, retail overspending will hold up. People are watching more television than they have ever watched before. Youre seeing spending shift to digital channels, but Traditional Television holding up relatively well. What we say to our clients is that those companies that can afford it should continue to invest because we believe they will learn disproportionate rewards in this environment. You see any difference in your margins or how much you are able to make when they shift than theyore online would in print or in stores . Mark ironically for us, Digital Media is more laborintensive in many ways then physical media. In many ways, a shift to digital helps wpps business. Largest digital partners, google and facebook, weve made a lot of progress working with them. It is making sure that weve made the necessary investments in technology, which is something we have focused on for the last 10 or 15 years. Alix to that point, lets go through the steps you guys took, in particular wanting to focus on your staffing. So you freeze new hires. You are at freelance expenditures. Youre going to cut discretionary costs. How long does that template sustain you, and when do you have to talk about job cuts . Mark i think coming into this, what is important to recognize is that we raised one point 2 billion pounds over the last couple of months, so we come into it with probably the lowest net debt the company has had in the last 10 years. So we are in a strong position financially. Our view is that those companies in the strongest position will come out in the best place, and that is what we need to do. We face the same uncertainty everybody does. We dont know how long this will continue. Is it a one quarter or two or three quarter . , it isger it goes on going to be tougher to sort out. At what point we need to get to them remains to be seen we will have to take measures in the future. At what point we need to get to them remains to be seen. Alix can you give me a list of what you will need to do . People at wpp, including myself, are taking pay cuts. We are looking at ways of people working for five days a week, and at some point, if things get particularly difficult, we cant rule out that we will have to look at job cuts in all parts of the world. My goal as chief executive is to protect as many jobs as possible as we go through this, like other chief executives. It is very important. Throughout this period, making sure that staff is our number one priority has been critical. That we couldaid get 100,000 people to work from home for weeks ago, i would have said you were mad, but we have done that. Our responsibilities to our people. We are going to take the steps necessary to protect as many jobs as we can as we go through this period. Alix i know how you feel. I am broadcasting from home and havent gone to black yet, so that is a really good sign. The other thing is you canceled your dividend and your buyback. That has surprised some analysts. Were you just being extra cautious with your cash buffer, or do you see something that the analyst hasnt seen . Mark it is as great an uncertain period as theres been since 1945, and i dont think we wanted to look back in a year and say there were steps that should be done that we hadnt done. So we suspended the dividend and the buyback, and if things recover more quickly than they could do, we could revisit that during the year. But our view is that those companies in this situation with the strongest Balance Sheet will come out of it in the strongest position, and that is what we are determined to do for wpp. It was part of my exclusive interview with wpp ceo mark read. It is time for stock of the hour. Joining us is bloombergs dave wilson. Take it away. talking about mcdonalds. It has been up and down in early trading today. Really, it is all about their First Quarter sales figures they came out with. Really a tale of two periods. First two months of the quarter, january and february, and then march. Sales were up worldwide by more than 7 in january and february, and in march, with the coronavirus spreading, that turned into a decline of more than 22 . Remember, the u. S. Was spared the worst of it. March sales were down about 13. 5 . A whole lot more of the companys restaurants in the u. S. Were able to stay open. They can provide take out service through their drivethrough windows. They can provide delivery through a lot of the delivery networks. Said 99 of they their u. S. Stores are open, and you look internationally, and that number is only 45 in their biggest markets. Italy, spain, france, u. K. , they are all close completely. That is what, as much as anything, is hurting results. You look at the developing markets where they have workers, like china, it is actually back to being 98 open come about at the same time, the demand is there because people are slow to return to the restaurants after the outbreak. Bymcdonalds is responding doing the constant thing that companies have been doing in many cases in response to the virus. Theyve withdrawn their forecast for this year. They are looking at multiyear forecasts, pulling those back as well. Pay cut ais taking a pay cut of 50 starting next week until the end of september. Other top executives are taking cuts of 25 . So mcdonalds is really having to hunker down here. Guy ok. We are going to leave it there. Theres all kinds of issues about what happens in the kitchen, as well. Thank you very much, indeed. What have we got coming up for you . Couldo says that trade contract as much a this year. A look at what is ahead for the Global Economy as President Trump looks to reopen the u. S. Economy pretty soon. That is coming up. This is bloomberg. Alix this is bloomberg markets. Coming up later today on balance of power is dr. Steven corwin. This is bloomberg. London, im guy johnson in london, with alix steel in brooklyn. This is bloomberg markets. President trump developing plans to get the u. S. Economy back on track, but it requires testing on a scale we have not seen thus far. Tom orlik, bloomberg chief economist, joins us now. Interesting we are talking about this on a day when we have seen restrictions listed as well. Give us a metric that the u. S. Administration is thinking about using when it comes to reopening parts of the u. S. Economy. Tom clearly, the u. S. Administration is keen to get the economy moving again. That is a completely understandable concern. We had a catastrophic collapse in activity in the last few weeks. Fiscal stimulus can get us through some of that, but not all of it, and not for very long. They are getting people back to work, getting businesses open again, absolutely necessary from it economics perspective. From a Public Health perspective, clearly there are some serious challenges. Can we get people back to work at the same time as a virus continues to rage through the population . Clearly, the answer to that is no. So the question is is there some middle ground . Can we use testing . Can we use tracking to widen the five people and businesses that are able to reopen . Clearly, some economies in the world have had some progress on that, but often, they have been economies like china, where theres a willing to embrace a much higher degree of Government Intervention in peoples lives. It is not clear to me that that is going to be possible in the United States. Weve also seen as a result of that is a really big spread between the basic bid ask of local gdp. It is really hard when you dont know what that is going to be. The wto had one optimistic scenario of global trade that could just fall 13 this year, and a pessimistic case, which is 32 decrease this year. Can you walk us through the level of dispersion we are seeing here . Tom this is just a moment of extreme uncertainty. We saw that in those wto numbers you highlighted. The two big uncertainties that i see are, firstly, what is the depth of the downturn which the lockdown is going to result in . Droppingoking at gdp in the second quarter, which would already be catastrophic, or would it be in line with the depths of the great financial crisis back in 2008, 2009 . Or are we looking at something that is even more extreme, a 30 drop in activity for each week now that the economy is closed . That is the first big uncertainty. The second big uncertainty is how long is this going to last. In a sense, that is even harder to answer. If this is something where economies are closed for six weeks, eight weeks, 10 weeks, and then they reopen, then we can tell a story about a gradual recovery in the second half of the year. If the outbreak doesnt come under control, if those innovative ideas guy was talking about and pay off, then clearly, we are looking at something which is longer and deeper. Guy one of the key things happening on both sides of the atlantic, we are seeing it here in the u. K. And you are seeing it in the United States right now, is that the Small Business funding schemes are struggling. They are struggling to get the money into the businesses that require them, that require that cash, and they require it in short order. We are going from a potential kind of insolvency problem to a solvency problem sorry, a liquidity problem to a solvency problem. How key a metric is that going to be . We need to hibernate the economy . We need to allow them to come back. But if they cant, that means the depth of this is going to be that much greater. How much are you taking away from what is happening in the smb space and plugging it into your models right now . Tom that is a really critical question right now. Around the world, we have seen commitments in terms of fiscal stimulus. 2 trillion in the United States , 10 of gdp. That is a huge amount of money to be pushing into the economy. It is enough. The question is, can it get to the right people at the right time . The answer there is just much muchcertain, and frankly, less optimistic. Some of the Small Businesses that i deal with on a personal basis are telling me, you know what . We put in our application for support. We put in our application for emergency loan. Not only have we not got it yet, we havent even heard that our application has been received. Clearly, there is a norma strain on these administered there is enormous strain on these administrations. If we are looking at a oneweek delay or a twoweek delay, fine. Small businesses are going to have some reserves. They can get through that period. If we are looking at a two month delay, threemonth delay, clearly we are going to see a lot of Small Business is not just going into hibernation, but going under. When theappens, even outbreak is under control, it is just going to be that much harder for the economy to bounceback. Alix last question here. Is there anything else that the fed, which can act fairly quickly, can do . They are already providing some kind of backstop, where they can basically get this off the banks Balance Sheets. Aside from that, anything else . Tom i think, as we have often seen over the last decade, it is central banks, because they are independent, because they are relatively effective institutions, the have been first into action on this. We saw them take Interest Rates down to zero. We saw them relaunch massive asset purchases. We have seen them saying, you know what . We are going to backstop your loans for businesses. In play, see them doing what they can. I think the question is now more on the government side, on the administrative mechanisms and on organizations which support Small Businesses or the parts of government that support Small Businesses. Are they willing and able to get this money to the people who need it at the moment they needed, which is now . You very orlik, thank much. Jay powell speaking tomorrow at 10 35, and presumably taking questions after that. We will have that for you live. We went to give you an update now on the headlines surrounding the coronavirus. Here is viviana hurtado. Viviana we want to leave you with this thought, now is not the time to pull back from measures to mitigate the coronavirus spread. These words coming from dr. Anthony fauci, speaking to fox news. What he is seeing is perhaps the beginning of a turnaround after this week, but some context for you. The Trump Administration has been discussing how to reopen the economy, and this could include widespread testing and keeping areas that have been hardhit like new york city perhaps shuttered. Really a critical time right now. The new virus epicenter of the europe epicenter is the u. S. And in europe. U. K. , it experiences its deadliest day yet as Boris Johnson is responding to treatment in the icu, according to a spokesman. If we were to work over to asia, restrictions remain in wuhan, today seeing a mass exit us after china eases lockdown. Train ticketsbuy out of that city where the pandemic began. Hong kong unveiling a virus relief package valued at 15 billion to subsidize worker wages. Remember, that economy has really been hit by a onetwo punch, covid19 now, but prodemocracy protests shutting down the city for a lot of 2019. So we are at a moment where we are seeing measuring the impact of the economy, driving a postpull between leaders and Business Leaders looking at the impact to economies, to businesses, as well as Public Health. How to keep people safe. In the First Quarter, the French Economy shrinking the most since world war ii while European Union finance ministers are really looking at the fallout in their economies. A 543iled to agree on billion Recovery Plan for the bloc after a marathon 16 hour conference call. In the u. S. , the chance of a recession within the next 12 months stand at about 100 . That confirmed downturn according to a bloomberg recession model, so all of this prompting how is it that leaders are grappling with how to move forward on capitol hill to move forward. On capitol hill, democrats seeking at least 500 billion for the next stimulus bill. That funneledf through communitybased institutions. Guy thank you very much for that update. This is bloomberg. Guy from london, im guy johnson, with alix steel in new york, this is bloomberg markets. Lets find out what is happening in chicago right now. Theing me on the phone is Vice President of calamos investments. The tanks are filling up quickly. We need to see some action taken by opec, opec pretty quickly. What are your expectations tomorrow . Guest our expectations right now is that we see they agree to the cutbacks, the more severe cutbacks in production. The big question is going to be, here in the states, when you talk about the production, what we are going to have to watch is what basis can actually cut that production, and how much. But again, we need that 10 Million Barrels to come offline. Otherwise, you see proverbial swimming pools being filled with oil. Guy and i guess that is the markets way of thinking about this problem. This talk about volatility as well. The vix trading at 44. 11 right now. Its come all the way back in from the high, north of 80. Do you expect it continues to fall . Do you expect daily volatility to come back in . The using the swings come back in . Would you be short vol right now . Joe absolutely not. That would be foolish at this juncture, just being short straight volatility. At this juncture, i think you expect still 3 ranges, and if we dont get this curve on the virus down, you could see us revisiting that 50, 60 level pretty quickly. Right now we are looking at the 40 level to be sustained at least through june. Bid stocks has been pretty over the last few days. What do you make of that . Thats an interesting question, one that i think a lot of it was the etfs in the inverse etfs. I think they were coming in a large bit there, and i think that is what was one of the primary drivers. That is what we were seeing. You are also seeing that proverbial nibbling. You are seeing Pension Funds that are going to have to put close to 300 billion in the markets. That could be an entity that may be dipping their toes in on a rebalance as well. Guy thank you for your time today. We really appreciate it. Joe cusick, Vice President of calamos investments. Coming up, steven major is going to be joining us. We are going to be talking about all things fixed income. We will get his take on where treasury yields are going, but the ultimate story is with all of this debt. That is coming up. This is bloomberg. Guy live from london, im guy johnson, with alix steel in new york. We are counting you down to the european close on bloomberg markets. Lets take a look at where we sit. European equities down, mid range in terms of where we have been today. Down 0. 5 on the stoxx 600. We are seeing still probably the most beaten up stocks of late catching a bid today, but volume is incredibly like. Keep an eye on the spread tps, germany and b and italy. We have seen it tightening up a bit from earlier on. It is at the heart of a debate raging in europe about how we help out some of the more indebted countries recover. Brent crude, 31. 78 ahead of opec. Alix a similar story in the u. S. , except with a little bit more juice. Potential he 500 billion of stimulus coming from the government in a phase four plan. Th i