Highs today, down about 2 . Trading volumes are down for the dow, s p, and nasdaq. Remember, we have a short trading week next week because of the memorial day holiday. It will be time to take a breather and plenty of people will be doing that. S put of 11 groups in the 500 closing in the red. The exception, industrials. Boeing and raytheon. Fromng to keep the dow falling as much as, say, the s p and nasdaq. Andre seeing some buying some of the beaten up areas, including small caps. Lets bring back dennis to. Ushehr of evercore isi in terms of data, highfrequency data will be top of investors minds. We do get some housing numbers tomorrow and there is anecdotal evidence that there are a lot more people interested in moving out of cities, certainly in the tristate area. Parts of that, that part of the economy still continuing. What is your view in terms of housing and how that will play out . It is one of the good aspects of the pandemic, that we went into this with an extremely strong balance sheet. We went into this crisis with a relatively high savings rate, high household balance. So there is a private sector surplus. You care about that because to the extent that rates are dropping and consumers are relatively healthy, fiscal programs are helping people bridge the gap to the reopening, confidence we will have another economic cycle, housing is going to win, especially in an environment of work from home, which everyone expects will be the new normal. Point thatimportant i think underpins the economy a little bit more, that housing can benefit. It is a real positive element of this, if you can point to anything. Scarlet let me jump in because we do have some earnings that have crossed. Turbotax,e owner of thirdquarter net revenue of 3 billion, a drop of a percent yearoveryear. Versus 5. 55 4. 49 a year ago. A lot of these tax preparation companies would tend to get a boost in the lead up to tax day but text a of course was delayed this time around until july 15. Maybe some of the earnings and revenue will come in the current quarter. A bige ross stores, offprice retailer in the u. S. , reporting earnings, a loss per share smaller than what some analysts had expected. . 87. Down 51 port q1 sales lessoveryear, but it is than what analysts had expected. We should point out that ross did not include a top sales figure for the first quarter. It did not include a forecast going forward. It did say it had to take an inventory valuation charge of . 58. Dennis, you were talking about i can tell you anecdotally, we talked to a lot of folks who have talked about the potential snapback much faster than other areas of the economy. When you look at things like Consumer Spending and retail stores, restaurants, etc. , did you expect the kind of pent up demand to emerge in the way it might emerge for something larger like housing and capital goods . That is a tough call. I do think Consumer Spending will come back. I dont know if it will come back as obvious as it will in housing. I dont have a good way to think about all of us, collectively, our confidence going into restaurants, retail stores, etc. I think spending will be about the same, but it will be much different coming out of this. I think we will get a shift from experiences to things. The last few years, we have seen a premium of experience over things. I think that will start to shift back. That is a little bit negative for restaurants. It is ok for retail that has a multichannel option, really not good for retail stores. Place iup in the same was getting to about tech earlier, that the same trends as were in place before covid are getting supercharged. When it comes to retail, macys of the world, it is an accelerant, if you will, of the headwinds. Moreet we have some earnings coming out, Hp Enterprise not providing any kind of guidance, but secondquarter net revenue a bit shy of what analysts were looking for, 6. 2 billion. Versus . 42. . 22 final question to you, dennis, as we look at some of these results. What have you learned from earnings season thus far, given that the estimates were really kind of out of date and people do not have a way of really figuring out what companies would report. Did you learn anything and how does it set us up for the rest of this year . Dennis i think the most important thing i learned coming out of this earnings season was that cash returns remained relatively healthy. I think that is an underreported story. Some dividend cuts, but some very small percentage parts of the s p. You look at apple increasing its buyback, microsoft increasing its dividends. Your price to cash return of the index, the index is 20th percentile going back to the 90s or even earlier than that. That was the most surprising thing to me, how will cash returns had held up. We will see if that translates in 2q. It is a very important point and why the market is grinding higher. Scarlet thank you very much, dennis. Then does it for the closing bell. Whatd you miss . Is next. We will be speaking with Deron Williams of southern belfort. He was attending the event with fed chief jay powell. Romaine broadcasting live from new york to our viewers worldwide, i am Romaine Bostick alongside scarlet fu and this is whatd you miss . Scarlet u. S. Stock markets, read for the three major indexes. Investors perhaps get a little bit more concerned about rising chinau. S. Tensione, part of that is rooted in whether china is perhaps to blame for the spread of the coronavirus. Pharmaceutical companies are coming together in attempts to do attempts to discover some kind of coronavirus vaccine. About when hisr company could start delivering coronavirus doses in the United States. Thee have to show that vaccine works. We are doing this at no profit during the pandemic. You have to remember, we are talking about vaccinations quicklyvaccinate very if you have a lot of infection, if the disease is very intense, you can get results very quickly. As far as manufacturing, a supply chain that is independent. One for the u. S. , one for europe. We are looking at india and china. We believe that we can actually get this done quickly. The manufacturing process, something that we know very well. So we are confident that we can make it happen. But, of course, this is a challenge. We have to recognize it. It is a massive challenge. You are listed company, a private company. In terms of making profits, you are not run by the government, and you are not a charity. When i think about the backing you are getting from the u. S. Government, i wonder how you can assure us that this vaccine will be distributed in a fair way. First of all, i would say that we are just beating it at no profit we are distributing it at no profit and the cost will be very low. Affordable to high income countries. The low income countries, we are working with global organizations, supported by the Gates Foundation and many countries. We will find ways to bring the vaccine to people around the world. The value is that the cost will be very low. Cost is not an issue. The issue is manufacturing capacity. That is what our team is working on 24 7. We have secured this wont be about cost, this will be about production capacity. My question, if you have been backed quite heavily by a couple of developed countries, are you assuring to us that they wont be getting the vaccine over everybody else. My question to you is basically, how do you fairly disseminate the volume of the vaccine to distributed equally globally without a preference of a country over others. There is no preference for any country. Said, the supply chain. Ae only issue, we cannot make vaccine if people dont want it. A discussion with global organizations, to make a choice and tell us whether they want it or not. There are technologies, as you couple offied rna, a those, two or three, and other technologies as well. Forntially, it is basically governments and global institutions to tell us whether they want it. The cost is very low. Romaine you were just listening to the ceo of astrazeneca, speaking a little bit earlier. We want to continue on this topic and talk about the race to find this vaccine. We are joined by Bloomberg Opinion columnist max neeson. This is probably one of the more watched medical developments going on right now out there. How many studies do we know are out there right now and what is the chance that one of the studies is going to produce something fruitful . It depends what kind of study you are talking about. There are dozens of candidates, at least half a dozen, i think a few more, beginning human trials, and many more in animal studies. In terms of the chances of whether one of these will prove to be both safe and effective in humans, given the sheer amount and the number of approaches, i think you can have a reasonable amount of confidence that one will eventually prove out. The question is sort of which one and how long it will take. That, i think, you need to be quite cautious about. The efforts running out in front are being developed faster than any vaccine in Human History intended for wide use. , the confidence you need to give this out to a million or even a billion healthy individuals. Scarlet there are deadlines in place. Operation warp speed from the white house is planning for millions of doses by october, though it is unclear what the drug is or who is going to make the drug. How do you speed up the Vaccine Development process and still ensure some degree of safety. There are some things you can speed up and some that you cant. Up inof what can be sped terms of compressing, doing less animal work then you normally would before you even start thinking about moving to humans, that is already happening. Successive groups of individuals, starting with young and healthy people, only then moving on to older adults. What cannot really be sped up, and i think what will be timeconsuming no matter what, are those large human trials. Fundamentally, you have to test these vaccines in places where the virus is still circulating. Some of those safety issues only arrive when you actually challenge someone, when they are exposed to infection. They will be multiple vaccine candidates chasing the virus, trying to get eta come all of which will extend the timeline. He fundamentally cannot skip that step. What you can do is expand manufacturing capacity. This is going to end up wasting money. You will make a lot of vaccine which cannot prove to be effective. But in order to have doses on the schedule that you need, you kind of have to take that big financial risk, which is what the United States and other countries are doing already. Scarlet thank you so much, max neeson, Bloomberg Opinion columnist. Coming up, when the fed looked for some help in its bond purchase program, it recruited blackrock ceo larry fink. Will discuss the role of the Management Firm in the purchasing program. This is bloomberg. Scarlet we have some earnings from palo alto networks, the Cyber Software maker coming out with thirdquarter revenue, rising to 869 million. Adjusted eps missing the average analyst estimate. But, it did give an outlook. Quarter adjusted eps, one dollar 40. The consensus estimate, 141. ,learly, palo alto at networks benefited from the shift to work from home. Romaine nvidia also reported earnings. One q revenue coming in just above estimates at about 3. 08 dollars. Adjusted eps at 1. 80. It is giving a forecast. Q2 revenue, 3. 65 dollars, plus or 2 , that is the estimate for q2. That would be above the consensus estimate out there right now. We will keep an eye on that. The company saying it is also committed to paying its Quarterly Dividend but it would evaluate the timing of share repurchases. A honestly hereby about percent or two. We want to talk about the fed, all of the stimulus, and blackrock. When the fed needed wall street s help, it went straight to one of the industrys most important government whiskers government whisperers. Larry fink. Mazza covers Asset Management for us and wrote about this in the latest edition of bloomberg businessweek. They have a history here with the government. They did help during the Global Financial crisis a decade or so ago. Now they are helping out again. What is the role of blackrock . Will they just call up and say buy this, buy that . What exactly are they doing . Scarlet do we have annie . Having somemay be audio issues. Scarlet let me give you an update on some Corporate News in the meantime. Macys, when it comes to your business flash headlines. Limited service. Saying the Company Wants to have pickup. Cap curbside victorias secret is closing almost a quarter of its stores in north america, 251 locations. And more stores could be closed as well in coming years. The largest Shopping Mall in the United States missed two months of payments on its 1. 4 billion loan. The mall of america in minnesota has blamed hardships caused by the coronavirus outbreak. Since marchclosed 17. That is your business flash update. Romaine i believe we have any ma annie massa now. She wrote this story about the role that blackrock and its ceo or plan. If you are there, if you could just give us a sense of exactly what the role is. Did blackrock get on the phone with powell and his subordinates and map out what they think the fed should be buying . Onie the fed is calling blackrock. Massive purchases in bond markets. In three different roles on behalf of the fed. Buying bonds directly that are newly issued. Shifting debt as well as the commercial mortgagebacked securities. It is really a symbol of how far , that the fed is three comeit for all out of the gate with no competitive process. Scarlet it certainly is controversial. Annie massa, thank you so much. Sorry we had the technical difficulty. Be sure to pick it up. Coming up, we will be speaking with Southern Bancorp ceo darrin williams. He was at the fed listens event with jay powell. Romaine a little bit earlier, we did hear from fed chair jerome powell, who was hosting a virtual fed listens event, where he followed up with leaders across the u. S. About how the pandemic is affecting the community. On that panel was darrin williams, ceo of Southern Bancorp. Southern is now considering a second round of ppp operations. On the advisory board. I want to start with todays event and jerome powell. We heard a lot of comments from him about the severity of the crisis but also about the fed effectively doing whatever it takes to provide some degree of susceptibility. Of stability. Is it enough to provide the stability in your community as of now . i applaud the effort of the fed as well as congress to provide the relief in the wake of this pandemic. Thes helping, especially in paycheck protection program. But, in the long term, beyond this, we begin to rebuild and economy, theres has to be more done to help those that we serve in the mississippi delta, some of the structural inequalities can be addressed and have a chance for people to have full recovery and actually get ahead. Interesting, is the perspective you are able to bring to the central bank and the president s economic Revival Group. What indication are you getting that either the Federal Reserve or the white house will try to address the banking and wealth gap that currently exists that, as we know, has been shown to result in more deaths for black people. Suppose toe is on i have something to show for it this time around. Darrin we hope so. One of the things that i hope i bring to the economic Revival Group is that i continue to bring up issues that impact low wealth communities, rural communities, communities of color, communities that have often been disenfranchised and left behind. In round two of the paycheck , they agreedogram on a carveout of 30 billion that went to a Small Community banks to ensure that paycheck protection resources reached some of the smallest Small Businesses. That was a good start. 1. 5 money was exhausted in days. I hope that, as Congress Continues to look at ways to reopen, that they will continue to focus on those communities that have been historically left behind. Romaine we talk about Small Businesses. The first round of that program seemed to show some disparities on how that money was distributed, businesses who were sort of stretching the idea of what constituted a Small Business. In the second round, it appeared that we started to see more of that money go to what we would traditionally see as Small Business. Can you give us a breakdown of what that was . Darrin one of the reasons it is so important that Small Community banks always have access to the money, we made our first paycheck protection loan on april 3, the day the program opened. We made the loan and funded it that same day. Banksas when many larger were not providing access to the program for folks who work not their customers. From day one, we provided access to customers. The 553 loans we did in round one, 336 of those went to businesses which employed 10 or less people, with an average loan size of only 32,000. In round two, it has gotten smaller. Hadlast 300 have probably an average size of about 10,000 and probably employed two or three people average employment size. More soleing more and proprietors, independent contractors getting access. What that shows is there is a real need for mission focus banks, Small Community banks that are approximate with these businesses to make sure that their Small Businesses have access. Scarlet at the same time, we know that banks such as yours and across the nation have been offering borrowers forbearance programs. A lot of these programs were rolled out in march and will hit the 90 day mark soon and expire. Is that the case that youre . If so, what is the next step for you . Do you start charging people interest, do you push them out of the program . Darrin we will do all we can to make sure we support our Small Business and consumer customers. When this pandemic hit, we automatically provided 90 day Payment Relief for all of our consumer borrowers across the board. For our commercial borrowers, on a casebycase basis, we are making decisions on providing some sort of Payment Relief. We will have done that i would 550 million. I am not sure people necessarily needed that but people are nervous, frightened, and they want to conserve cash. We continue to look at that, do all we can to make sure the economy recovers. It will probably be sectorbased. We have a fair amount of hospitality in our portfolio. People are not yet going back to hotels. We want to make sure they survive. So we will work with our borrowers. Romaine with regards to the recovery and some of the regional differences, in new york, the lockdown was a severe. I know that in some of the southern states, the lockdowns work a little bit shorter. I wonder, what are the net effects of businesses, and will they be able to come back quickly, that vshaped recovery once everyone is able to fully participate in the economy . Darrin it all depends how quickly Consumer Confidence comes back. People are still nervous, frightened. While we did not have the complete shutdown again new york , people did shut down. You saw businesses have almost a complete drop in revenue. Particularly in the hospitality industry, hotels operating on less than 20 occupancy. It is all about Consumer Confidence. The longer this goes on, the harder it will be. Vshapedhope for this recovery, and until we really have the confidence that people are safe, i dont think we will see the economy reopen really quickly. Really darrin williams, appreciate you joining us and given us a glimpse of what is going on in your bank and region. Southern bancorp ceo, darrin williams. Lets get our first word news. Mark the trump and ministration has notified International Partners that it is pulling out of a treaty that permits 30plus nations to conduct unarmed observation flights over h other territory. To avertitially set up conflict and promote trust between the u. S. And russia. The Trump Administration says it wants out of the open skies treaty because russia is violating the pact. Pres. Trump there is a very good chance we will make a new agreement or do something to put that agreement back together. Whenever there is an agreement that another party does not agree to. We have plenty of those around the world where it is a twoparty agreement and they do not adhere to it but we do. Whenever we have Something Like that, we pull out also. H it is reported josh mark it is reported that this month of a 16 european officials signed a statement saying that it would undermine arms control agreements. Steve mnuchin will likely says congress will likely have to pass more stimulus legislation. Secretary mnuchin spoke today in an online event hosted by the hill newspaper. He reiterated the Trump Administrations position that more stimulus is not needed immediately. American 76 million adults did not get the medical care they needed for conditions unrelated to covid19 in the past month, according to new data by the u. S. Census. The estimate also found high rates of Mental Health problems. About 160 million americans reported feelings of being down, depressed, or hopeless. Population0 of the reported symptoms of anxiety. The United States has delivered 50 ventilators to russia as part of a humanitarian donation to help the country cope with the pandemic. 150 will arrive next week. Ofsia sent a plane load medical supplies including ventilators to the United States last month. Global news 24 hours a day on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. I am mark crumpton. This is bloomberg. Scarlet Speaker Nancy Pelosi says the house will look into the senate will imposing restrictions on Chinese Companies listed on the nasdaq and other exchanges. She stopped short of promising the house would take up a vote. Listen to her exclusive conversation with david westin. That unemployment insurance, food stamps, and the rest, provide stimulus to the economy and we have to do that. Package, the act does just that, a scientific path to open the economy safely, and soon, supporting our heroes to keep those jobs in place, which is important to the stimulus thathe money in the pockets of the American People provides. The question on everyones ofd, the process of passage the heroes act or Something Like it. We heard today from secretary mnuchin. President trump said today he is working with Mitch Mcconnell on some sort of package. How much help do you have the we will have something soon . Rep. Pelosi i am optimistic because the American People support what we are doing to be one already. They support doing 21 already. They support the passage of our bill and oppose the senate obstructing it. We have less than a trillion dollars that goes to states, localities, tribes, and territorial governments that provide jobs for people across the country. We have democratic and republican mayors and governors, county executives, and the rest making their voices known to the members of the United States senate. Unusual that we have strong bipartisan advocacy that is meeting resistance in the senate. But i dont think for long. What we have in the bill is disciplined, focused, necessary, and it has broad bipartisan support. It is just a matter of time. Hunger does not take a pause. Take a pause. Not you really need to meet the needs of the American People. As you know, you mentioned mnuchin, but the head of the fed, powell, has said that his said that it is the responsibility of elected representatives to use the tax and spend responsibilities we have. He has indicated that there is need for more. You, just one ask quick thought about china. One thing that appears to have bipartisan support is the possibility of delisting Chinese Companies. If that makes it for the senate, could that make it through the house . Rep. Pelosi this is something we just learned of. It passed with unanimous consent , so there was not much debate. We will review it in the house. I have asked my committees to take a look at what that is. I take second place to no one in the house and senate in my criticism of chinas trade policies. Policies,rights proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. Right now, whether it is the uighyurs, the hong kong, they have been very aggressive and even more so. But we have to have a relationship with china and we judge every action for what it means to us and what it means to them. Interesting that it had such unanimous support in the senate. Listeninge were just to u. S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi speaking a little bit earlier on bloomberg television. We want to turn to what is going on in the Global Economy. Pandemic ted is what will the demand for the when theomy look like economy returns to normal . Our next guest wrote a very interesting piece here kind of laying out the case for why the dollar is basically king dollar for a reason, right . Absolutely. Things we may end up taking away from the crisis, the dollars place in the Global Economy being reaffirmed. It is the global reserve currency. We can talk about the health response, the feeling overseas about that, but it is clear that dollar, economy, u. S. U. S. Assets have remained a safe haven in this crisis and that has strengthened the role going into the future. Scarlet part of this is because we are in a crisis. Whenever there is Something Like this that changes up everything and someone needs some measure of safety, the dollar beckons. We have seen some currencies trying to be an alternative, whether it is the euro in 1999 when it launched. Currently, cryptocurrencies. None of those have really held. You do not see countries cashing or diversifying out of the dollar. The story has been pretty much the same for decades now. 2now represents about trillion, a little over that of the 11 trillion Foreign Exchange reserves. The u. S. Dollar is 6. 7 trillion or so of that. The point being is that there is a vast gap between the two. We have been waiting for the chinese yuan to take its place in the currency pantheon. A few years ago, when the imf brought it into its basket, and a lot of people thought that was part of the process. Overt is only a little 200 in reserves that are allocated. That is a small portion still of the allocated reserves, and that tells you about where the world thinks they can keep their money safest. The United States. Donnan, great article here. Joe weisenthal has given us the other side on the bloomberg terminal and we will be speaking with him next. This is bloomberg. Romaine welcome back. A few minutes ago, we were talking to bloomberg reporter shawn donnan, who made the case of why king dollar remains king dollar in bloomberg businessweek. Writing a relatively competing article is our next guest, the cohost of whatd you miss . And escape room aficionado joe weisenthal. You wrote an article that kind of made an interesting case of interesting crisis why the covid raises the risk. That inwn is correct the crisis, everyone races for dollars. They owe their bills in dollars, they have bonds denominated in dollars. But looking a little bit further , you could see how this crisis could be the beginning of the end for that. I am not saying it could collapse or there is an obvious replacement. But internationally, you have just witnessed your supply of dollars vanish pretty much overnight, because export to the u. S. Are plunging, tourism dollars from the u. S. Are pretty much nonexistent right now, you might start to wonder whether you really want to have an economic model that is predicated on the need to acquire dollars all the time. You might say, maybe there is an alternative. Combine that with the idea that maybe the u. S. Will start, in some of itshoring industry, and you can see not that the dollar collapses, but it starts to finally recede and become more systemically less important from a global perspective. Former mark carney, the bank of england governor, had indicated before the covid19 crisis that the dollar is too strong. Briefly explain what he meant by that. Joe basically, this world where the u. S. Is shrinking as a share policy is deary facto because of the dollar reliance. Maybe it is not for anyones good. Wants to,ink the fed and the world is not want to be dependent on the u. S. s off and down cycles. It is not clear that the current arrangement is great for the world economy, to have so many actors on the u. S. Cycle, and extreme shockn that maybe it creates the impetus to get on a new global system. Roadet perhaps down the it sets the stage for a new paradigm. Joes article available on the bloomberg, counter arguing what shawn had written. This is bloomberg. Welcome to bloomberg technology. Im taylor riggs in new york in for emily chang. Stocks ending the day in the red, with tech leading the losses. This is all amid rising trade tensions between the u. S. And china, adding concern about the pace of the recovery due to the pandemic. And the numbers on the pandemic showing the u. S. Virus cases rose today 1. 5 , in line with last weeks average. This comes as more state and local governments preparto
vimarsana.com © 2020. All Rights Reserved.