Getting out to 2021 and even trying to have our central bank centralbank measure 2022. Jonathan looking forward to that conversation in a couple of hours right here on bloomberg surveillance. Weve also got to talk about the projections. We have not had projections from the Federal Reserve since the summer of last year, and they were looking for 3. 5 unemployment in 2020, and gdp growth in and around 2 . Nobody saw the revisions that would have to be made just half a year later. Absolutely extraordinary. You see it within the economic at a have been talking about. As Olivier Blanchard mentioned in our show open, the challenge forward is on policy. I know you were long amazon and apple yesterday, driving forward the nasdaq. Was. Han i wish i not just yesterday, but through the year as well. Tremendous performance in this equity market. Who would have thought we would have the revisions we are about to get later, and this equity market would be higher versus where it was in december . Speaking of the data, 90 minutes away, a little more data. Lisa this is the focus for policymakers in th monetary, as well as fiscal side. Getting 8 30 am, we are Consumer Price index data. I am curious about whether we are getting the right kind of inflation. In other words, the necessities are going up in price. The food you buy, the homes you rent and buy. Is this the right kind of inflation . Ahead at 2 00 p. M. , we are getting the fomc statement, but before that, the Monthly Budget statement from the United States. The key event of the day, the fomc meeting. I am very curious to see what they have to say about yield curve control and how much of the treasury market the Federal Reserve lend up having to buy in order to peg. Jonathan will they give us a monthly rate . I imagine the dot plot is in play as well. How much does that come down from where it was at the turn of the year . I imagine considerably lower than where we were several months ago. Tom ive never been a big fan of the dot plots. Bullard used to put that one down below just to show his protest as well. I think one of the key questions over the next one to three years is when does the dot plot disappear. The whole world came down to the bullard dot eventually. Thats start the program with priya missouri with priya misra of td securities. Lets begin with what you are focused on and what you want to hear from that News Conference with chairman powell. Priya we are not looking for any specific odyssey action. We are not looking for Forward Guidance or a specific amount that they are going to be buying per month. I think what i will be focused on is the language. How does chair powell frame the outlook, framed the view . We had a pretty positive payroll number friday, but that was expected. When the economy reopens, youre likely to see much better data. We are reopening slowly, but are we reopening to a new normal . We just dont know this. Risks inthe cyclical the mediumterm are going to remain highly accommodative, and suggest that there might be more steps in the month ahead. We do expect them to undertake yield curve control. We expect them to be buying a lot more longer dated treasuries. I dont think now is the time to commit to that because of all of the uncertainty. I think we will see it in the dot plot and it would be the dot. St ever long run we dont have too many pandemics to look to, but i think inflation, even though there is talk about high inflation, i think that unlike a war, you look outside, there is still all that capacity. Theres a term in this amount of slack in the system. I think that will actually tell the market that the fed is likely to be accommodative for a long time. Jonathan it speaks to low inflation and low rates for a long time. I wonder if they can make it even simpler. Just a few months ago if you asked the Federal Reserve what their objective was, it would be extending the cycle. Can they Say Something like we need to get this economy back to precovid19 levels, and Monetary Policy will be loose into we get there . Priya i think they could. One form of strengthening Forward Guidance is to make it outcome based. But i think if we realize there could be a lot of structural damage to the economy, i think it gets a little harder for them to commit to precovid levels. The economy is growing at a trend, so are we getting back to precovid output levels or precovid trend levels . I think they would like to get to trend, but if theres a lot of structural damage, i think the fed will struggle to say we want to get back to that level, but say that we are not about to take the foot off the pedal. In fact, we might accelerate if we see these risks we talk about. We are not reopening to near normal, now they come in with more. Is trying toarket see how accommodative they will be, or are they ok with rates being higher. I think chair powell was pretty forceful in that they dont want much higher rates here. When we talk about getting back to precovid levels, we have already gotten there in terms of verse think in terms of reversing some of the losses. Theres sort of a feeling in the heads, i win, tails, i win because of the fed. Do you think this is correct, that basically this is the one tool the fed has come on they are going to double down on keep asset on keeping asset prices high . Priya great point. If you look at the market, you would almost say, what pandemic . I think the market is partly the fedng the fact that has said rates will be low for a long time. Think what we are all struggling with, and what nobody really knows, is what is the mediumterm. Has structural damage been done . I think Interest Rates are going to be low for a long time. Dbe could be the beat could be higher, but if companies are going bankrupt or businesses are getting impacted and we dont know enough on the fiscal front, this is where i expect chair powell to make another push for more fiscal stimulus. I dont think you will bring out stability as a reason for them to cut back on accommodation because you would get a pretty big impact on the economy to , andn the Recovery Process that is really the worst outcome. But i do think the stock market is pricing in getting back to normal, and that is really what we struggle with. Weve got a hat trick of sophisticates in the , and that would be you, lisa abramowicz, and the host of real yield, jon ferro. Is the real action talk, or is the fed action actual, tangible action . What part of where they are now are they . Are they all talk and promise, or is it what they are actually doing now . Priya they have done a lot. I dont think we should forget how much they did in march. I would not discount to the action part. Rates down toe zero. And Forward Guidance is a powerful tool. The fed discovered that if you tell the market you are not hiking for a long time, that can keep rates low and help asset prices. So i think they continue to use that as a tool. Talk is powerful. The dot plot is one form of. Ommunication as well talks can really only anchor the front end. Be watchingrtainly for how chair powell frames the qe program. Is it just market functioning . If that is the case, the treasury market is functioning just fine. I dont think that is the right policy. So the action will be needed and the fed every week does buy treasuries. I think they can buy as much as is needed on the curve, but we want to hear some talk on the long end. I think suggesting that we dont want longerterm rates rising will tell us that the fed will buy as much as needed to keep that long end anchored until we know the economy can handle higher. Brilliant work as always. Always enjoy catching up with. Ou Forward Guidance is the big issue right now, and also the objective of Monetary Policy. You and i discussed it yesterday, the idea that they can say this is just about market functioning. They have gone way beyond just market functioning. The market functioning is just fine. What does the next phase of policy look like . That is the question for today. This is verytom similar to the financial crisis. Markets function through all of this, and markets are clearly voting for some form of recovery. I dont know how the fed dovetails with that. I would sit rest they are going to remain calm and cautious today, even as they play with the dots. Jonathan i would agree with that. Will kitchenr, we dutta of renaissance macro. That is coming up, with futures turning just about positive on the equities. Ritika with the first word news, im ritika gupta. Globald warns the economy will slump 6 this year because of coronavirus, and if there is a second wave, output could fall 7. 6 . They also warned that withdrawing support for business and workers now could make the economic and social damage even worse. Secretary of state mike pompeo is blasting hsbc for impose chinas move to new rules and hong kong. Hsbcs beijing uses business in china as political leverage. The bank isnt commenting. Chinas Foreign Ministry called pompeos remarks narrowminded and ridiculous. Chinas position is that hong kongs affairs are sold the its concern. Angela merkel is facing growing pressure to get tough with russias vladimir putin. The president s decision to withdraw almost 10,000 troops from germany was welcomed in moscow. The u. S. Still hasnt officially notified berlin of the withdrawal. The move would reduce the number of u. S. Troops in germany by about 1 4. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im ritika gupta. This is bloomberg. Out the time to worry about inflation. Right now you throw everything youve got at the virus. You hit it, you kill it. You win the war against the virus. Youpharaoh everything throw everything in terms of finance, and terms of budget resources, entered the Health Resources because the sooner you beat the virus, the less expensive the recovery will be. Jonathan and how they threw everything at it in the last few months. From new york city this morning, good morning. Alongside tom keene, im Jonathan Ferro, together with lisa abramowicz. This is bloomberg surveillance , live on bloomberg tv and bloomberg radio. Your markets shaping up as follows. In the equity market, we advance to points on the s p 500, up by about 0. 2 . Outside of that, the bond market , treasury yields coming down three basis points on the 10 year. Just a little bit of curve flattening. Yields lower in the last 24 hours after the back 24 hours off the back of some real steep. Just to get you up to speed on the weaker dollar story, weaker against everything in g10, with the euro advancing with again advancing once again and a Federal Reserve decision later out of d. C. Tom that was the most fired up i have ever seen him as we talked about mexico, latin and south america absolutely crushed by the pandemic. It has been extremely difficult and south america particularly in south america, particularly chile. We need to talk to an optimist. Neil dutta has been more optimistic about the American Consumer in any when we speak to, and he joins us. We had a great jobs report, a huge surprise. Tomorrow will show continuing improvement from the horror we are living through. Already going to do the same dance with gdp . Are we going to underestimate the ability to recover, and are we going to hear that from the fed today . Neil i think yes and no. I do think the consensus is a little bit too negative at this point on the secondquarter growth numbers. You look at the atlanta fed as an example. I think it is tracking 50 annualized for the second quarter. But we already know that in may, taking the input from the , it went upumbers , which means it would take a lot to see that kind of about 68 in may, which means it would take a lot to see that kind of number. We will get more information on that as the weeks go by. Fed, there is absolutely no reason whatsoever for them to sound upbeat. Is low. N Risk Management suggests you take a more cautious approach. You err on the side of doing more. While we have seen some signs of improvement, the fed is not even close to declaring victory. I think what we are going to see today is them continuing to signal that they are going to anchor the front end of the yield curve and keep rates low for a long while. Jonathan how comfortable do you think they are with what is happening further out on the curve come on the 10 year and 30 year, relative to where yields were . Do you think they are comfortable with that . Neil i think so. If you look at the minutes, there doesnt seem to be much support on the committee , and this is a consensusbuilding institution, there doesnt seem to be much support for targeting Interest Rates 10 years out the curve. Blogu look at bernankes post on targeting Interest Rates, essentially they said they were going to go two to three years out. I think longterm Interest Rates have picked up a little bit, and the reason is because growth expectations have picked up a little bit because the data has improved. It is not immediately clear to me that that is something they need to be concerned about. Of course, they are looking at broad financial conditions. Even as longerterm Interest Rates have picked up, the dollar has come in substantially. It has almost looked where it was precrisis. We know highyield cdx has come in quite a bit. Commercial paper spreads have normalized. So i think the fed is looking at longterm Interest Rates, broader financial conditions, and i think broader financial conditions are conducive to growth. And tom were talking about this earlier. We have gone way beyond market dysfunction at this point. It is the fed propping up asset prices, keeping a lid on yields. How much is this the main driver of the rally we are seeing that is broadening out, and how much are traders counting on this behavior continuing, of the fed propping up asset prices, to continue making bets on, say, the russell 2000 . Neil i definitely think the fed has your back, but we also know Monetary Policy cant permanently inflate the level of asset prices. We talk about the equity markets and the economy and financial conditions. Obviously there is a circular feedback loop between all of these things. A Strong Economy means better financial conditions, so on and so forth. But if you look at when the market bottomed, at least equities, it basically coincided with a turn in the economy to to three weeks later, which is what you would expect to see. Of course the economy is better than it was. Look at Mortgage Applications today, up double digits yearoveryear. Diane forr home homebuying demand is up 13 year on year. That is activity. See motor gasoline up. Certain industries are hearing they are sharp are seeing very sharp recoveries. Other industries or not. But i think the economy is in a much better place. Right now, everyone is talking about secondorder effects from potential bleeding and state and local governments, but there are second mortar there are as well,der effects and i think people need to keep that in mind. I think the recovery in the economy and the recovery in markets are frankly telling you the same thing. Jonathan youve been brilliant over the last month, and we really appreciate your guidance. A more constructive view has certainly paid dividends in this market and beyond. Tom keene, we have had some positive surprises from a range of industries. We had guidance for macys, guidance from american airlines, guidance from the retail wings of big wall street institutions suggesting it is reopening, delivering some positive upside to prices. Tom theres all these indicators. I will give you one indicator in the flight path of laguardia. I had three planes go by last night for the first time in ages , landing in laguardia. That is a good sign. Jonathan i got to say, plain watching might be your thing, tom. Trainspotting is a big thing in the u. K. I think that would suit you well. This is bloomberg surveillance , live on bloomberg tv and radio. When you say what youre in the mood for, the xfinity voice remote will find exactly that. Happy stuff. If the groups happy, im happy. You can even say a famous movie quote and it will know the right movie. Thatll do, donkey youre expecting prince charming . You can learn something new any time. Education. And if youre not sure what youre looking for, say. Surprise me. Just ask what can i say . To find more of what you love with the xfinity voice remote. Jonathan from new york city, this is bloomberg surveillance. We are live on bloomberg tv and radio. Alongside tom keene, im Jonathan Ferro, together with lisa abramowicz. Two hours away from the opening bell, good morning to you all. Equity futures basically unchanged, down a single point on the s p 500. We had pause on this equity market rally we hit pause on this equity market rally. The yield curve was steeper into the close on friday. It flattened going into the Federal Reserve decision. Twostens coming down to about 60 basis points. That is the spread between the twoyear and the 10 year. Your yield coming down three basis points in this session to just south of 0. 8 on the 10 year yield. One theme that does continue this morning is a weaker dollar against the bulk of g10. Euro advancing several tenths of 1 . That is a stronger euro and weaker dollar going into that decision and jay powell News Conference just around the corner. Tom i am glad you mentioned euro. I was looking at that to go through 1. 14. Making it very clear at Deutsche Bank that we see weaker dollar. He even framed out in one part of the conversation a 1. 20 euro. Can you imagine the challenges for Christine Lagarde . I am not saying he predicted that, but he framed out how you get there. Weve got wonderful guests coming up, including alan blinder on our fed show with scarlet fu. At that 2 00 p. M. This afternoon. Right now a most interesting economist. Mark zandi has led the charge at Moody Analytics for years. He is out of the factory known as the university of pennsylvania. Prescientn incredibly. Ook what is the price chairman powell is going to pay . Down the road, theres got to be a price to pay. What is it . Price,here is probably a but i think he has no choice but to go down the path that hes on. The economy is flat on its back. The risks are very high. But it dont think there is any choice to be any choice but to be aggressive here. Tom i totally agree with your analysis, but theres got to be a price to the expansion of what weve got. You are at moodys, where you are linking economics into credit rating, etc. What is the price to pay of this multitrillion dollar expansion . Mark two things. Prices,uice up asset markets, equity prices, credit spreads, real estate values. That ultimately may be a problem down the road, if markets get overvalued and particularly turned speculative. That is something Central Banks in the fed are always watching out for, so that is a possibility. The other is obviously he is enabling a massive amount of deficits and debt, and eventually that is going to be an issue. This is something happening across the globe. Every government on the planet is borrowing very heavily to battle this virus. There is going to be a price for that. We are going to have some kind of sovereign debt issue. , he has no choice. Theres no real good choice here. That is a big call, that we could have some sovereign debt issues in a few years. Do you think that could happen in developed markets, or is that a problem for elsewhere . Mark i think that is a problem everywhere. Riske is obviously most at , but i think every developed economy is going to struggle to some agree to some degree, worldearly the emerging needs help navigating through. This is going to be a global problem. Similar to the financial crisis, once it becomes obvious that the Global Economy has been diminished by the crisis and debt loads are a lot higher and there is a probability they will not be paid in a timely way, i think the same kind of dynamic is going to play out a year or two or three down the road on the other of this pandemic. Every country, including the United States, is going to be part of that event, that potential crisis. Down on lets pin you that. Define problem for us. We are thinking about 6 , 7 10 year yields on spain and italy. Youre not saying the same could happen in the United States, are you . Mark no, the u. S. Is still the aaa credit on the planet. It is still in the best spot. Money tends to come to the United States. Flight to quality. That will continue. I do think Interest Rates will rise. So theg to allow political abilities do something about it. But i do think eventually, the pressure on u. S. Policymakers will be that they will have to engage in some form of fiscal austerity, a pullback on government spending, higher taxes, all of the above. So pressure will come on the United States, but not the pressure that other countries have come under, and certainly not to the degree europe did in 2011, 2012, and 2013. Lisa as chief economist of moodys analytics, you take a look at the Economic Data which is turning up and fueling this optimism we are seeing priced into risk assets. It seems as though the pandemic is over, at least in the eyes of many people. Many are not accounting for a second wave or some sort of resurgence, even though a lot of Health Experts are expecting that. What would a material second wave due to both the Economic Statistics and the bleed through, the response to that in markets . Mark that would be a big problem. I dont think markets are catching much of a probability on a serious second wave. A be they are right. We dont know. Who knows . But i think a prudent investor planner would probably attach higher probability to that possibility. What that means is it is disrupting business is. I dont think we are going to see governments shut down businesses again. I just dont think there is a political will to do that. But that doesnt mean that businesses cant get disrupted because consumers will selfquarantine. Theyve already got one foot in the bunker, and they will run back in and stop spending. The economy will be disrupted. That is fodder for a doubledip. So i think we are at a recession now. We are going to grow in q3, but on the other side we go right back into the soup, and this will be kind of a w shaped d. Onomic perio materialize,es then obviously markets have some , narrowing ofo credit spreads we have seen, all of those things will come down and markets will contest it again. Lisa i sound like a broken record today because this really is my big question. Heads, youe today is win, tails, you win. Monetary policy makers will flood the zone and do whatever it takes, and they have more ammunition. I are why are they wrong . Mark i think they are misjudging the amount of ammunition the policy bankers have. Central banks still have policy space. The fed has room to maneuver, but not much. At some point, that is going to be a problem, that they are not able to go to that well so many times. So i think investors need to be cautious that policymakers can bail us out only so far. What may happen here if we go into the second wave that would make it more lethal if that you see a lot more bankruptcies failure, defaults, foreclosure, repossession. So far we have avoided that because of the policy response. I think we will see some of that supports the policy start to wear off. But so far, it has been relatively minor erosion here. But a second wave going back into recession, i think those credit problems become very significant, and for investors, they just wont be able to ignore it, and policymakers wont be able to offset it. Jonathan mark, great to catch up with you. Really interesting thoughts. A more pessimistic view compared to the more constructive you we dutta minutes ago. In the second wave, the aggregate numbers tell a different story. The asperity in the United States is getting a little more interesting the disparity in the United States is getting a little more interesting. Getting a little more caution coming from states like texas and elsewhere. Tom you have seen it in the last few days in the newspapers, the parsing of the virus in these states, and it is not going well. Zandi is known, like dutta, as an optimist, but mark zandi talking about a doubledip like we saw in the 1980s. The massive difference is that was a time of massive inflation, of the good feeling of high Interest Rates. It is not there now. I dont know how you do a doubledip in the United States if you dont call it europe or, there i say, you dont call it japan. Jonathan that will be the theme later for us on bloomberg surveillance, live on bloomberg tv and bloomberg radio. Later on the program, we will check in with and mandel of j. P. Morgan Asset Management area right now on the equity market, 0. 1 . Ance by around in the bond market over the last month, it has been about yields higher at the long and, and a curve that steepens just a little bit. Over the last few days, we reflatten and yields come in on the three year. 1. 55 in the United States. This is bloomberg. With the first word news, im ritika gupta. Senate republicans are drafting their own proposal for reforming police practices. It includes racial bias training, increased use of firsts, and acting the national antilynching law. Democrats want to make it easier to sue and prosecute police accused of wrongdoing. All of this comes in response to the killing of george floyd in minneapolis. U. S. Authorities are scheme withg a traces to india. It is unclear who funded the hacking operation, but one of the beneficiaries apparently was the embattled German Tech Firm wirecard. The company says it hasnt been in touch with any hacker groups. A trade group of u. S. Restaurants says its proposal for a 20 billion Stabilization Fund would pay for itself. According to the independent restaurant coalition, the fund could generate more than 270 billion in economic activity. The Republicancontrolled Senate has already signaled the next fiscal response to the Coronavirus Crisis will be more limited. Call it a sign of the times. The paramount network has canceled the longrunning tv program cops. The reality show that glorified police work was entering its 33rd season. 25 yearson fox for before the network dropped the program. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im ritika gupta. This is bloomberg. Adoptw down the pace to 100 billion a month, coming down from 2 trillion in one month, because the markets are starting to do their bidding. The markets have done their jobs by normalizing. The liquidity has really fixed all liquidity in the system. Jonathan Bruce Richards there of marathon Asset Management of the Federal Reserves herculean efforts of the past several months. What will they say a little bit later . The fed decision very much and focus. From new york city, good morning to you all. We are live on bloomberg tv and bloomberg radio. In your equity market this wednesday morning, just a little bit of a defensive oster captured by an equity market that is just about positive on the s p 500, but your outperformance comes from the nasdaq. Another story you have become familiar with over the last several months. In the bond market, treasuries are bid going into the decision later. The 10 year yield comes down to her three basis points. In foreign exchange, it is as you were. Takei growth currency like the aussie dollar. Eight day winning streak, eight days of strength into monday. We took a break tuesday, but it resumes again this wednesday. That is a weaker dollar and a stronger aussie, top of the pile in g10 this wednesday morning. Tom you nailed it. Aussieyen is one proxy you can look at. Jeff currie with Goldman Sachs made very clear he is still long gold, and also mentioned a commodity renaissance as well. We have been talking with lots of good, smart people on this fed day. Blinder at 2 00 p. M. Antalked to roman friedman hour or two ago. What matters is what to do with your money, and Benjamin Mandel of j. P. Morgan Asset Management is going to tell us right now because he is focused on the international markets. Move,e seen a great tech as Jonathan Ferro mencius. As Jonathan Ferro mentions. When do we get a shift to True InternationalGrowth Stocks . Benjamin International Diversification may finally have its day. We have been saying that for some time. The argument has been threefold. One, valuations in equity markets outside the u. S. Are more compelling. It is hard because they underperformed the u. S. Market for several years. Wo, the dollar is expensive, as you were mentioning. That is poised to, at some point in the long term, go back to levels consistent with ppp. I think the problem with saying that in light cycle, as we were until very recently, is that is a tough argument because as you roll into the recession, u. S. Equities tend to outperform in the dollar just gets stronger. Over the last few months, you are operating with a bit more of a clean slate visavis those late cycle valuations and the dollar, and i think you are starting to see that now. That the obvious dollar moves back to its longrun fair value soon, but i think the direction is clear in an environment where growth is picking up, you are in early cycle, and you are seeing that kind of washout having happened. Weve got to distinguish between whether the dollar wink this the dollar weakness we have seen is a distinguish her of Risk Appetite or a driver of it. What would be your call . Ben we tend to think about the dollar in terms of relative andth, relative policy, maybe the synchronization of growth. There is definitely a sense in which everyone is bouncing off of their growth slows in april there growth lows in april is synchronous with a dollar weakening me short run. The other thing is policy. We will see from the fed today, i dont think anyone is as credible at pinning down short rates for as long as they are able to than the fed. I think that is part of it. Yourhe risk rally, to point, has to become a little more differentiated here. I dont think it will simply be the case that all of the early cycle winners will continue winning, so banks, values, cyclicals, you have to pick your winners here. Markets, anding the story with europe i think will be reflected in part in the currency as well, where part of will not be able to out much the feds ability in terms of Forward Guidance. Lisa lets build on the europe call. I was looking at the oecd productions that came out this morning for the economic downturn, and it looks like the european economies will be the hardest hit. In particular, italy, the united kingdom, and france. But to your point, you have seen european stocks outperform. And is being priced in, what would be necessary in the data, as well as the stimulus front, to keep this rally going . Ben there is an inevitable ashaped in the data, so labor markets and corporate profits globally are still in a state of repair here, we expect that to be brisk over the next few months. Europe is no exception. I think the other aspect of it is banks. Banks are a relatively bigger contributor to the equity index in europe, and in an environment where the unlimit rate is falling, we would expect that to supported as well well. I think it is accommodation of factors, but there is kind of a subtlety in the economic expect the economic aspect, which is that governments have been very good at socializing the losses on the part of households, so they have kind of filled up that hole in income. I think on the corporate profits side, that is impossible to do completely. The incidence of corporate is still very much up in the air. So we like europe here. I think it is important to differentiate across the different regions, in part to hedge against the risk coming from that source of drag on the outlook from corporate losses. Jonathan great to catch up with you. Then mandel there. How any times have we heard that over the last several weeks . I like europe. I like europe, too, but for different reasons. What is the change coming out of this pandemic . Ben been lately reemphasized the european banks. Somebody who has been as good as inamed power hudson says nuy those european banks. Says buy those european banks. Jonathan later in the next hour, the former r. B. I. Governor rajan on this program. We are up by 0. 2 . From new york, this is bloomberg. It is hard to imagine we would see a quick vshaped recovery. I think it is going to be slow. I think the data do suggest a upturn in the third quarter. They did what they had to do. [indiscernible] the choice between lives and livelihoods is a dilemma. The health and the economy go handinhand. This is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, Jonathan Ferro, and lisa abramowicz. Tom good morning, everyone. Jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, and tom keene. It