Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets Asia 20240712

Rates on hold at one quarter of 1 . The rbnz saying they are going to be they are committed to reviewing their quantitative easing program. The policy committee reached consensus on this decision. They are saying they are prepared to provide additional stimulus as is necessary. All the economists we talked to the benchmark Interest Rate in new zealand staying on one quarter of 1 . Little to no reaction on the new zealand daughter new Zealand Dollar. 64 u. S. Cents. Tom lets get some of the views from our guests at the bloomberg summit. Sharing their views on the prospects of a recovery from the pandemic. I do not think anybody can be confident with the kind of uncertainties that prevail. I would put say is my odds on a v shaped recovery. How we are going to share the burden in a credible way. It is not just financial and fiscal support. It is also regulatory charges we have undertaken to support the economy. As recently as early april, i saw china could only i thought china could only look forward to a u shaped recovery. I was too pessimistic. China is moving into growth territory. It is a v shaped recovery. This v shaped recovery is going to persist. Rishaad lets get the senior emerging markets. Lets get your reactions to the new zealand decision. Are they in a comfort zone . How is the economy doing . The first major developed economy to come out of the locked they had instituted. Good morning. The rbnz is in a more comfortable position than other Central Banks. Rates are at a quarter percent. A change in the purchases. As we have seen from the comments, they are looking at other monetary tools. They are prepared increase as it uses at the increase asset purchases. At the moment, there is no need to do that. Data has come on the Positive Side of expectations. We will wait to drop sharply. Look at dairy and equity prices. They have moved higher. The only issue is that the kiwi is overvalued. The reality is with the data improvement, it is hard to say that. The opening up of the economy, eating of lockdowns have continued. Things have moved in the right trajectory. It does suggest the status quote for some time. Downad the dollar going now off the back of the new Zealand Dollar. They are working toward a broader range. Also the purchase of foreign assets. I want to get to those a guest we had interviewed about the economy looking ahead. , orle talking about a v, u perhaps a pearshaped recovery. From a global perspective, i would argue more of a nikes swooshdeck nike shaped recovery. U. S. Start with the the reality is that we are still going to be in bad shape as we approach the end of the year. We are still approaching the point where we get eloquent sees and bankruptcies. We only think we think the and implement rate will be above 10 by the end of the year. Growth properly 6 lower. That is not a v shaped. What we will watch out for is how q4 recoveries take shape. It is unlikely we are going to see a rapid bounce from activity. The current risk for markets is the second wave of viruses. Many states in the u. S. And globally. If that intensifies, do we see more lockdowns . That is going to be a concern. Social distancing restrictions. It is still not plain sailing for the Global Economy by any means. Tom jp morgan saying they prefer u. S. Equities over em for the second half because they do not think the dollar is going to we can much further from here. Do they have a point . I do think they have a point. The dollar has come under pressure. It has been negative. Equity markets go up. Dollar goes down. That seems to falter within the last week. We would still argue ultimately, the dollar returns to a position of strength just because the u. S. At meth the u. S. As it markets are likely to outperform. Economyham in the u. S. Is likely to pick up relative to other economies. I think that is going to bode well for the dollar. It is going to bode well for the attractiveness of u. S. Assets. It suggests a dollar the dollar should have a stronger path. We expect that to be the case. There is a prospect of outperforming em assets. The emerging markets are going to struggle a lot more to get out of the covered crisis. Perspective, it is difficult for a lot of emerging markets. That inform your decision about what you want to be exposed to in terms of fx in this region . Generally, we would try to in the near term, were looking at more relative value. The dollar is still quite choppy. We do look to the long dollars against occurrences. Well. Rry and yield bodes ultimately, i think the economic consequences we just talked about will weigh on these currencies. That means the dollar higher. North asia is coming out of this weather than south asia. The economy out of this better than south asia. That could bode well for north asia in the second half of the year. Rishaad what about other countries . Looking at thailand and what is going on with the philippines. I think thailand is interesting. We have a Rate Decision today. We are looking for no change in the bank of thailand. There concerned about the strength. It would be interesting to see if there is any unconventional measures being announced. T is tough to weaken notite the philippines having the strength, it has had some resilience. Also what we are watching is the chinese r d. We do not think the chinese currency is going to be used as a tool against the u. S. In any way. I think that could provide an anchor for regional currencies as well in the next few months. Athaad looking particularly euro,n, sterling and the just a quick view on those three. Euro obviously and sterling rallying strongly on the back of dollar weakness. Technicals had seemed to suggest we would see a bounce. Our view is it is going to be short. We think we are going to approach levels of both the euro and sterling. The dollaryen is interesting. It has moved lower in the recent sessions. That suggests a little bit more of a risk off environment. We do still look for dollaryen. Our view is that sterling and euro are unlikely to sustain gains in the days and weeks ahead. We look to buying and selling both currencies as we approach higher levels from here. Are geopolitical risks a potential blind spot for markets . Absolutely. Geopolitics is a major issue that is not fully priced into markets at this stage. We are seeing hotspots globally. As we know, we have had tensions between india and china on the line of control. That is not going to go away quickly. , i think south korea that is going to be a hotspot. Of course, the u. S. And china where although phase 1 despite the talk yesterday phase one is unlikely to be tarnished. There certainly other areas of friction, which will only intensify ahead of the u. S. Election come november. I think geopolitics is going to be acute in the next three months. Tom thank you as ever. Get the first word news with Karina Mitchell in new york. New coronavirus cases are surging across the u. S. , forcing local authorities to reconsider plans to reopen. Infections are soaring in texas, florida and arizona. California broke its record for new cases for a fourth day. The European Union meets wednesday to discuss when to open external borders and may decide to exclude american travelers as long as the u. S. Continues to bar europeans. Annual Institute Poll shows 23 trust beijing to act responsibly on a global stage compared to 52 two years ago. Confidence in xi jinping to handle World Affairs has almost 22 . D to President Trump does not fare much better. Only 30 trust him. Saysts from north korea kim jongun has put any potential military action against south korea on hold. The agency also said he discussed how north korea could bolster its capabilities with tension on the peninsula remaining high. His sister has warned the next move would include the army. Wildcard ceo marcus brown has been granted bail at than 5 million. He resigned last week and turned himself into Munich Police as probes intensified into the 2 million unaccounted for. Wildcard says the missing funds probably do not exist. Global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. Im Karina Mitchell. This is bloomberg. Still ahead, more interviews from her bloomberg invest summit. We are going to be hearing from the Carlyle Group ceo. Who sees a tough coverage for the u. S. And china. We will hear from larry fink about his outlook for markets as we slowly end lockdowns. Tom also ahead, a look at how the coronavirus pandemic is exacerbating gender inequality in india. We speak to someone who specializes in the economics of discrimination with a focus on gender issues. This is bloomberg. Tom welcome back. Carlyle group sees the u. S. Enjoying a v shaped recovery and then struggling on the upward path. The ceo spoke with alix steel at the bloomberg invest global summit. There is a sharp bounce back because i do think the worst is over in terms of april being the low point, they sharp bounce back does not mean a v shaped recovery. What we are seeing in china and that is the best example of something that is close to a vshaped recovery. Due to consumer skittishness, due to some of the factors involved in changed haver, we are seeing change behavior, we are seeing the economy come back to a 90 level. In the u. S. , it is going to be more challenging. There is a lot we still do not know. There is tremendous issues in terms of how we Contact Tracing and mitigate other occurrences of the virus in the future. Liability issues that have to be worked out. There is the possibility of a jobless recovery. If i had to say it right now, i do not believe it is going to be vshaped. I think the bottom look like bottom looks like it is going to be vshaped, but i think it is going to struggle moving on. I did not suspect we get to precode levels for a couple years given the nature of the recovery. China if youmean are back to 90 , you expect that to go down a little bit before we get another recovery or on day the last line of the w . I think the most important point to appreciate is in china, if i were to ask you how much money was spent by the government to get that money to get that going, it is virtually nothing. They manage their recovery on an organic basis. If you look at europe and the United States, a tremendous amount of fiscal stimulus was required, injecting it into the economy. They have a lot of ammunition ago. Ofnas the export portion the economy has shrunk over the past 10 years. Something like 40 down to closer to 20 . Given that, china has got a lot more going for then you would think. There may be a chance it does not hit a recession this year. I think the United States is going to have a little more fits and starts. I do think the resiliency of our economy is such that we will power through this. It is not going to be a classic vshaped. I would be more in the check mark shape with some squiggly lines as the second part of the v is a lesser dramatically sloped and more jagged. Does that mean from an investor perspective you would rather be investing or it is a better chance to put money in china than into the u. S. Or europe . You have awhen platform as large as we are all over the world, all these different investment strategies, the question is not are you investing are not because we are always investing. It is being selective and understanding where you want to put your money to work. There is a difference between investing aggressively and investing wisely. We are in the long term business. We have balanced perspective. That is what are investors pay is for. Pay us for. We have been selective in being aggressive in the credit asset class. We really Like Health Care and tech, particularly in parts of the far east. We have been deploying not as aggressively as some may say, but it has been active. Investing is not only putting money to work. It is also trying to understand how to exit appropriately. We have been pretty successful, even during these times with the pandemic with respect to ipos. Zoom info or one medical. Both successful instances of ipos at troubled times. Are always selling. We are always buying, but it is about being targeted and investing wisely with a longterm perspective, which is what youre trying to do. What we are trying to do. Rishaad we bring you more of the biggest names across finance from that bloomberg invest summit including jessica krypton. Those interviews from 1 00 p. M. Hong kong time. Ourr today, do not miss interview with david sullivan. Holdings filing for chapter 11 bankruptcy in delaware. This is the supplement, the health and supplement nutrition company. It has been struggling with its debt for a number of years. It seems the pandemic has pushed it over the edge. It had been in discussions with creditors. Holdings, forgnc chapter 11 in delaware. We will bring you more details when we get them. Still coming up, our exclusive interview with larry fink. Find out what the worlds biggest money manager has to say about the u. S. Recovery and market volatility. This is bloomberg. Rishaad lets have a look at the latest headlines. Kkr amassing more than 10 billion. It puts it on track for the biggest buyout for the region. Sources saying it managed 80 of its target within seven months of launch. It is planning to close the first round by the end of the month. It could surpass the record 10. 6 million. That was raised by Hillhouse Capital in 2018. Potentialto a conflict of interest for credit suisse. The lender is looking at finance funds, which provide shortterm corporate loans. The loans are sourced by green helped capital, which is backed by softbank. Top live streams are under pressure for the central government. Out three singled apps backed by firms run by tencent for what they call vulgar and problematic content. Among the are crackdown. It is not clear what if any sanctions may follow. Tom lets check in on the markets. And of the u. S. , you have concerns about the virus in the u. S. , you have concerns. About the virus california has seen four days of record infections. It seems the outbreak in beijing is under control. Just seven new cases reported in the chinese capital. The focus is on the central bank. We have had reaction from the bank of new zealand. The msci pacific is flat. Forecastan analyst that suggests you may get to 4200 in q3. The nikkei is up for tens of 1 . The futures in futures are flat. The u. S. Dollar has been moving slightly lower. That is supporting the chinese currency. 7. 0 sticks. The new Zealand Dollar down a 10th of 1 . The central bank saying they are looking at additional tools. Gold is another market. The asset may break 1300. This is bloomberg. A. M. In hong0 29 kong. Here are the headlines. Says he expects the economy to emerge from recession before the end of the year as the administration considers another round of stimulus payments in the coming days. Speaking at the bloomberg and best global event he said the new rescue package is being drafted and should pass next months and he is confident in the recovery. I think you saw the recent employment numbers. People thought there would be another 8 Million People unemployed. We put 2 Million People back to work. This is the ppp working. You will see the economy had a very bad second quarter. I think youll see a spectacular rebound off the bottom in the third quarter. Twitter has hidden a tweet from President Trump for violating policies on threats of harm. No policea note area in seattle. The president posted a warning there will never be such a zone in washington, d. C. , adding protesters would be left with serious force. Twitter said that threat breaks its rules. The tweet is still there but it is hidden. From north korea say kim jongun has put any potential military action against the south on hold. The state new agency said they met army and told them to suspend any movements against soul. Seoul. Kims sister has warned the north that the next move would include the army. Novak djokovic and his wife have tested positive for covid19 following exhibition matches in serbia and croatia. Three other players also have the virus. Competitionted the and says he believed organizers had met all health protocols. The event has now been called off. Rishaad we look at the markets are this is the state of play. Japan had its morning session. Games there. The new zealand topics 50 up. 10. 8 . At the moment, we have the aussie dollar the new Zealand Dollar in focus since we have the reserve bank of new zealand doing nothing with its Interest Rates. We did see, new zealand on the reverse some of the gains it had afterwards. The central bank did point to the balance of Economic Risks remaining to the downside. ,aking a look at the kospi biggest gainer in terms of equities. Philippines under pressure at the moment. Down by half of 1 . Elsewhere, the other asset classes. Aluminum down at the moment. Price, wti at 40 a barrel. Moving to larry fink. He says the full extent of the pandemic on Smaller Companies remains unclear. He talked exclusively to bloomberg. We have been working with five different governments over the course of the issues around covid. You mention the Federal Reserve but for other countries we are working with. In trying to help them design to boost theird economies. That, that is a division we have been doing this since 1994. It is a segregated Division Within our organization. It is a component of our Organization Im very proud of. We actually do a really good job. I am not here to judge whether we are too big to fail. We have been reviewed and reviewed. Important Asset Management company. None of the assets are our own assets. On like when people think about banks and insurance companies, it is their Balance Sheets are in our clients speak, can redeem in their mutual funds daily. Our institutional clients can eriod. In a 30 day p our fundamental position is very different than what a bank and Insurance Company is. Our work that we do related to f ma, we did this openminded. When we were asked to take on assignments. People ask, what will this mean . Will there be backlash . We will need to continue to do our job. And we are winning this because of our expertise. And the complements we received from our clients have been as strong as ever. And so, i will continue to try to position ourselves to be the best we can in helping more and more companies, more individuals , governments to have a better financial future. That is what we are trying to do. Model is a business fiduciary culture. You cannot say that about any bank or Insurance Company. Their Balance Sheet navigation does not apply related to that fiduciary positioning. Because it is not our money. We have high standards we operate under. I am very pleased with how we have been able to navigate this progress 2020 was always going to be a big year. U. S. And china trade tension in the u. S. Election. Now you have covid19. What makes you most worried about the markets. Are we going to see a lot of volatility. Cutting out the noise. It will be hard to cut out the noise. I think we still do not have a fundamental understanding of is there going to be a different strain of the virus. Ike we saw in other parts i do not know if we are going to a severe rising infection rate or mortality rate. I hope we have antivirals quickly. I hope we have a vaccination quickly. Until we have those issues, and have we are over, until we a better understanding of the outcome of the 2020 election here and we know what is going on, i think we should expect a lot of volatility for the next year. Lets be clear. Markets have done well with all of this uncertainty. Pile of casha huge sitting on the sidelines. That money needs to be put to work. Blackrock chairman larry fink. A look aton the show, how the pandemic is exacerbating inequality in india. We speak to a guest who specializes in the economics of discrimination with a focus on cast and gender issues. This is bloomberg. With the Indian Economy grinding to a halt and millions moving their jobs, women are expected to bid the brunt of the follow. A quarter of the women are in the labor force with most in a vulnerable in former sector. Our next guest says there are gender and cast asperity is in the early lockdown and job losses where women have suffered more than men. Lets bring in a university whosesor of economics, focus is on economics of discrimination and affirmative action. Thank you for joining us. What has been the impact on the labor force when it comes to women as a result of these lockdowns . I looked at the data for the first months of the lockdown. Which in india was very stringent. Now, given we had very lockdown gender disparities and the labor force position in employment, and absolute numbers, more men were employed prelockdown. And more men lost jobs post lockdown. Contrary to the gender we have seen from early results in the United States. If you condition on who had jobs before the lockdown. The lockdownhe employment women lost more than men. That is the indian peculiarity. Women have suffered greater job losses. Given there are already inaints that show up the employment rate of women it does not bode well for the future. Professor, what do you understand is the likelihood of the women who have been pushed and forced out of the workforce being able to quickly back into employment, given the informal nature of a lot of this work russian mark and what kind of timeframe for the early results for me and june, the early data shows that unemployment that employment has kicked up. It is at a very low level in numeral areas. In rural areas. In that sense we have to wait for the numbers. It is possible that womens Labor Force Employment might also go up. But as we see it is likely to be in an informal, vulnerable occupations. And not the kind of formal sector, good, decent jobs you expect in the long run. Offers the pandemic also the country an opportunity to reorganize things. And an opportunity that may be we might be see a different result. It is a tragedy what happens with untouchables. Lower caste. If youre a woman simultaneously , your options are very limited. Yes, they are. So, the unfortunate thing is many stigmatized jobs at the bottom end of the spectrum. Which have been the traditional occupations of untouchables. These jobs, they continue to do. It is not a good situation. , andther thing about women this has nothing to do with cast but the people that are in the front lines of the covid fight, these are the primary Health Workers or the auxiliary nurses and midwives whose normal job is not to be but because the pandemic has been so huge that they had been put into the jobs of Contact Tracing, information giving, doing surveys, checking up on families. They are literally going from house to house. House,rom house to talking to households, giving them information about covid and doing Contact Tracing. Hot. Is in an unbearably these women are doing these jobs under the most Hazardous Conditions without any protective gear. And they are coming in contact with patients who might have covid. On the one hand you see a drop in their employment. On the other hand you see that when you pickup the stigmatized jobs, on a very risky frontline , which you, women might say at least they have some jobs, but it is risky. It is hazardous, risky. It is putting them at risk of stigmatization from their communities. They are isolated from their families. There have been incidents of violence against them or their families. They are between rock and a hard place. Has this crisis compounded existing or preexisting inequalities you have been mentioning and on top of that what are policy prescriptions you would have in mind to study and do you have a government in your view who is willing to address those concerns . Well, for the longer term impact of the lockdown, i think we need more data. I analyzed onemonth of data. Which was available to me in april. Given there are trends of rising or lower unemployment in may and june, we have to see what the those who aref getting employment in may and june are in terms of gender. I would like to see that data before commenting. That from, i feel this pandemic we have seen that preexisting inequalities do tend to get evident. Along gender lines or ethnicity or caste lines. In United States we are seeing a serious divided impact of covid racially. Manus many similar issues. I do believe that based upon all of this it is not unreasonable to assume we see the same thing in india but we need more data. This brings me to the second point. We need gender and cast specific data. Both in terms of incidents of covid as well as in terms of employment. And we need to have that in real time. So that all the scientific can bese that india has put into analyzing this data and adjusting policy for the future. As i said before, i think ause the pandemic pushed on our economy. When we stop, when we restart, it is a Good Opportunity for us to make sure that constraints that were preventing the besertation of women can removed. This is a good time to make positive policy breakthroughs. And i can only hope that the government can do that. Thank you for joining us. Lets tell you will be have coming up. A surge in new cases across the United States. Putting reopening plans into disarray. Americans are being at risk of being banned from traveling to the European Union. This is bloomberg. You are going to see the economy had a very bad second quarter. You will see a spectacular rebound off the bottom in the third quarter. We expect real gdp to come the two thousand 19 levels by the end of 2021. I do think the resiliency of our economy is such that we will power through this. But it is not going to be a classic vshaped. It is going to be more of a ushaped recovery rather than a vshaped recovery. We a lot of things rebound. Taken as a sign we are on the path to recovery. We are a long way off that in the u. S. And even much so more so in the developing world. We will not have a robust Global Recovery unless the whole world is recovered. Just some of our guests at the global summit. We have new virus cases surging across the United States throwing reopening plans into disarray. The European Union is considering shutting the door to americans as they ease travel restrictions from other countries. The surge in cases complicating the u. S. Reopening in some areas. That is exactly right. What you are seeing this is across the sunbelt of the United States. From florida, texas to arizona. These are all southern states. Republican held states in most cases. Also seeing is in california, out west. You are seeing the cases creep up in large percentages. You are seeing hospital start to worry about capacity. Maybe the next two weeks or so. And you are these plans for lets get everybody out and going again with a certain amount of precaution. Kind of being called into question here. Especially given that in some of these places there are also some of the places that have been the most resistant to doing basic things like Wearing Masks and keeping a certain amount of distancing. It really is kind of a compounding problem. Donald trump was in arizona for an event. Very few masks were at that event. Seen thisrtain had president has wanted to get the economy going. There has been some question inut how much he is getting talking with his virus task force all of the time. And as you see all of these sort of suggestions towards easing, you do see these numbers really creeping up in the predominantly red states. I have to say the reaction comparison between what happens in china where you have a couple hundred cases and they go into full crackdown mode. As opposed to what is happening in the u. S. We have tens of thousands of cases is remarkable. The europeans looking at closing out americans and keeping them out of europe. Is the rationale. Is it safety or politics . There are sort of two things i want to your observation, 100 right. Whaty u. S. City had beijing as having, they would popping champagne corks. But getting to your question, there are two things in play. One is that europe was reciprocity in terms of travel. Has not necessarily come to some agreement that there will be some form of travel reciprocity. So that people in europe can come to the United States. And the people in the United States might be able to go to europe. The second thing is that the u. S. Obviously is a very diverse country. Countryvery large geographically in terms of population centers. What is happening in one part might not be happening in another part but you do see countries around the world and in europe who are looking at the caseloads in the United States and going, hold on a second. Maybe there should be additional points of caution. India considering opening up. Tell us about these bilateral bubbles. Australia and new zealand are planning something similar. These travel bubbles have emerged as an idea for trying to get some air travel restarting between places that have kind of gotten a hold on the virus situation. India and the United States obviously i do not think anyone would say either has a hold on their situation. But you are talking about having the same rules of how u. S. Air carriers and indian air carriers can operate. It is a similar thing to what happened with the u. S. And china. In terms of these travel bubbles, you are seeing countries that have knocked the virus back. New zealand is one of them. Australia a little bit. Singapore. There is figure out if ways it that they can link up with those other places and say, ok, maybe if you cannot travel everywhere you can travel between these countries that have similar measures of control. Thank you so much. A look at a couple of business flash headlines. 10 weeks into the new tmobile. Wireless carrier is asking to rollback commitments it has made to win approval to buy sprint. Asking for california for a waiver. Tmobile saying the current of fires coronavirus is making it impossible to make new hires. Indonesians ridehailing job is to cut 9 of its workforce. The company is grappling with the fallout from the pandemic. It will affect its nearer divisions. That go to festivals. They will shut down at the start of july. The direct rival, singaporebased grabbed announced it is cutting 5 of its workforce. We got plenty more coming up on the show including from the bloomberg invests summit. We will speak to the ceos of goldman sachs. This is bloomberg. It is almost 11 a. M. In singapore and hong kong. Welcome to Bloomberg Markets asia. This is a look at our top stories. Asian stocks in a holding pattern. Investorsfutures as watch coronavirus numbers around the world. The dollar declines. Cases top 9 million with several u. S. States reporting a surge. California breaks and infection record for a fourth day. A recent spike in beijing is easing. The crisis adding more pressure on the u. S. China trade deal. Steve mnuchin telling us he expects the agreement to endure. But the treasury secretary warns a d could still be on the table. In the asian markets this wednesday, still the msci asia pac index managing to geek out some gains. The csi 300 index up. 2 . Seventh day of gains. More chinese stocks. The concern is in the bond markets. Chinese government bonds have taken 10year within striking distance of 3 . Levels last seen in january. The hung saying down. 1 . Of course we keep an eye on tencent. It smashed alltime highs. Just yesterday. The kospi up 1. 5 , rising for a second day. Samsung leading the advance. The kospi heading for the biggest events advance and 10 years. Over in southeast asia, the benchmark up. 4 . Ahead of that Rate Decision in thailand. The boc set to leave rates unchanged. Taking it to a fresh record low of half a percent. Here is an out performer. The index in vietnam up. 3 . The bestperforming market in southeast asia. Evaluations among the lowest in the region. It goes to the upside. Earlier that the office is shut for some decontamination, but trading still continues in manila. Currently down half a percent for the benchmark. Just having a snapshot of what is going on in the currency. The boughtaway from out of thailand. It is pretty much unchanged. Down 6 since its march highs. Up 4 to the course of this year. So far. New Zealand Dollar in play. We saw a retreat take place after the reserve bank decided to leave Interest Rates on hold. That was the unanimous decision. With them suggesting risks remain to the downside. The aussie dollar a whisker ts. Ow 70 u. S. Cen a survey out of germany out later on. What about india . What did we have for the nifty yesterday . A day where we saw some pretty decent gains. Of 1. 5 . Rupee is just a little bit stronger. In the bond picture looking unchanged. Going on withs regards to the indians session. Round about 42 minutes away. Lets have a look at what is going on with the first word news. New coronavirus cases are searching across the u. S. Forcing local authorities to reconsider plans to reopen. Infections are soaring in texas, florida and arizona. While california broke its record for new cases for a fourth day in the past week. And the European Union meets wednesday to discuss when to open external borders and may decide to exclude american travelers as long as the u. S. Continues to bar europeans. The u. K. Government is relaxing virus rules calling on people to use common sense. Twos johnson is cutting the meter social distancing rule to one meter plus and allowing hotels and restaurants and pubs to reopen next months. His message of cautious optimism is weakened by his medical advisors who say reopening still carries the threat. Reports from north korea say kim jongun has put any potential military action against the south on hold. He state News Agency Says met army leaders and told them to suspend any moves against south korea. He discussed how north korea give abilities with tension on the premise the remaining high. His sister has warned the norths next move would include the army. The former wirecard ceo marcus brown has been granted mail granted bail at 5 million. Andn resigned last week turned himself into police as probes intensified into 2 billion unaccounted for at the fintech company. Wirecard says the missing funds probably do not exist. Global news 24 hours a day on air and on quicktake powered by 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. This is bloomberg. We have breaking news out of india. On some steel imports from china. We know on tuesday indian of southern steel projects from china and vietnam and korea. Guarding domestic manufactures from cheap imports. On the back of tensions between india and china. And indiah china agreed to deescalate tensions on himalayan border after a weeks long standoff which boiled over into the military clash between the two nations and 45 years. After markets were world by anxiety over the status of the u. S. China trade deal, Steven Mnuchin says he expects beijing to honor its commitments. Told bloomberg the charge the chances of decoupling still exist. I have every expectation they will. They have continued to tell us they will. As recently as last week when secretary pompeo met with one of the senior people that flew in from china. They had a summit. I have that expectation they will lead up meet up to their obligation. Let me just comment on i think the world wants a lot more transparency on covid. Did it start, how did it spread, how did it spread around the world and it did not spread within china . Have expectations that they will live up to their trade agreement but we also have expectations in they need a lot more transparency around the disease. There is not more transparency do you think there will be a decoupling with the chinese and u. S. Economy . You see that is being separate from the trade agreement. Are you worried about her think you could be appropriate to have a decoupling at some point . It could. I think you have a lot of companies beginning to look at their supply chains and making sure they diversify them. That is something that is prudent to do wherever they are around the world. Looking companies are at bringing jobs back to the u. S. Because of our tax incentives. Along, if said all leaking compete with china on a fair and level playing field, it is a great opportunity for u. S. Businesses and workers as china has a large growing middle class. Several hundred Million People. If we cannot participate in compete on a fair basis, then you are going to see a decoupling going forward. So the Chinese Government is thinking about changing the ways in which it operates overseas hong kong. The president has been concerned about that. So has secretary pompeo. If the Chinese Government were to go forward with legislation, do you think the u. S. Government might impose sanctions to show disapproval . It is our policy. On futurecomment sanctions but what i will comment on is the president in the rose garden speech instructed me to convene with the president S Working Group on capital markets. Myself and all the major regulators. And we are looking at all of these issues carefully as it relates to hong kong, as it relates to chinese issuance on the u. S. Exchanges. Steven mnuchin speaking to David Rubenstein on leadership like. We are talking Market Strategy with the chief Investment Officer of ivanhoe capital. Emerging market focus. 25 billion in assets under management. Catch our exclusive interview with indonesias finance minister. She calls on the central bank to do more to help the economy recover. Your with bloomberg. I think you were going to see the economy have a very bad second quarter. I think you will see a spectacular rebound off the bottom in the third quarter. We expect real gdp to come the 2019 level by the end of 2021. I do think the resiliency of our economy is such that we will power through this. But it is not going to be a more ofvshaped red a ushaped recovery rather than a vshaped recovery. We are seeing a lot of things rebound and that has given us a sign that we are on a path to recovery. We are a long way off that in the u. S. , and even much more so in the developing world. We will not have a robust Global Recovery unless all of the world is recovered. Some of the highprofile guests from our Bloomberg Global investor then. Turning to Financial Markets. Rose to markets stocks a threemonth high after President Trump reassured the u. S. China trade deal is fully intact. In asia, investors continue to find appetite for risk assets despite the continuing acceleration and coronavirus cases across the americas. Lets talk Investment Strategy with the ceo of ivanhoe capital. Good to have you with us. We talk about em. Is there an upside given that we general he have yes, i think the dollar weakness, and first of all, hello. How are you . Nice to be here. The increase in of the information. Everyone having an opinion on the markets so that the economic coronavirus and emerging markets, we also have from investors. There is a justified reason why emerging markets have not rebounded as much is developed markets have. Growthrld with slower and evaluations in emerging continuend developed, to invest in markets that have responded better to the Coronavirus Crisis. Which come in particular, are these markets . Veryw we are seeing headlines coming from brazil, from india. And it is a source of concern for events. It has a bit of a leg and response from these numbers. In see policymakers countries and emerging markets struggling to be on time and on top of the decisionmaking and implementing the necessary steps we have seen in developed markets. Will continue to justify the gap in Financial Markets for emerging markets. Before the interview we had a lot of big names talking about the shape of the recovery, vshaped or w shaved. Whether it is ushaped. Does it matter . There is so much stimulus. So much money waiting to be put to use. Surely this rally can continue. It can continue. With with myk mindset which is of a longterm we have strategic investment. In manybusinesses jurisdictions. From the technical part of our portfolio, we have to make a decision if we want to participate in these financial lets say exuberant. You have to agree on market valuations. Then you have to decide if you are going to deploy money into it. There is space for value companies. There is space for some growth. Of whated number you can do in Companies Like netflix or amazon. They were companies that are better positioned to take the challenges we have seen with the Coronavirus Crisis in the next three months. Companies thatve are benefiting significantly from the support Central Banks around the world have created. Will end up seeing companies that have, zombie companies. We have companies that have Business Models that are no longer sustainable. Are you going to be buying indiscriminately in the markets . And be exposed to bankruptcies and a very wide a rate of valuations. That is a decision that each investor needs to make. Of new seeing now a lot entrants in the market. They behave very differently from longterm investors. And i have to make my decision. If im going to enter the 5 s for the next 2, 3, that is going to bring together or if i will continue to make my longterm calls, have my Investment Strategy followed a concerns, either looking at the trade war or the resurgence in cases of coronavirus. Or the u. S. President ial election and balance out my portfolio. You are alluding there to the entrance of robin hood investors. Have they changed the game in other ways . Day trading is making it, the market that much harder. Well, i think everything, we have used a lot of [ indiscernible] analysis to decide what our allocation is going to be. We use behavior signs to decide when. Science, changed significantly because the new entrants to the market, the investors, they are here for different reasons. Ory are bored at home spending too much time in front of the screen. Or because now they can trade for free. How they are going to react. Is not anything no. Volatility is here to stay for much, much longer. And sure and performances going to be much more than longterm performance. Yes . That is all we have time for. Sorry. Thank you so much for joining us. Ivanhoe capital. Coming up, new virus cases surging in the United States prompting a possible travel ban by the European Union. The latest on that. Rishaad new virus cases are searching across the United States. Bringing reopening plans into disarray. Spots emerging over the past few days. Lets bring in jodi schneider. And us about these spots the response coming from local leaders. Surge inare seeing a new cases across the u. S. Anthony fauci, the top Infectious Disease expert, told congress he was seeing what he is called a disturbing surge in new cases. California, texas and arizona have reported their biggest daily jumps and in florida the infection rate climbed. That it isrisome spreading in a number of communities. California which had earlier seemed to contain the outbreak reported more than 5000 new cases. 3000tate hit a record hospitalizations. Local officials have a mixed response. On the one hand we are seeing some places Palm Beach County where President Trump has a residence require masks. Commissioners voted unanimously to approve that measure. But then we are seeing other places like texas where the governor is saying he is not shutting down. Even though texas reported more than 5000 new cases in the past 24 hours. What is President Trumps latest response to testing . And the surge in some states. President trump is now saying dding when he said that testing is a doubleedged sword. He earlier said in the campaign rally. His white house spokesperson and others have said he was choking. He said i was not. T is a doubleedged sword when you test come you find more cases. He wants to keep the economy going. Because he wants the reopening to continue. Therefore, he does think testing is a doubleedged sword. Officials say testing is the way along with mass are really important steps to get the Virus Outbreak under control. As border slowly reopen, several nations are beginning to make plans for the resumption of air travel. The European Union says it might ban travel from the u. S. What details do you have . Eu is meeting this week. And one of the the things they will decide is who to let into the 27 nation bloc when they reopened the border starting july 1. One of the criteria is reciprocity. U. S. Citizens would not be allowed in, because europeans are still barred from certain travel into the u. S. The u. S. Has more cases than these european countries. Europe is trying to revive demand to economys. And they want to guard against a second wave of infection. Like thatint it looks very well may be u. S. Citizens. Jodi schneider. Check on thea Chinese Market as they had to break. We have the Chinese Market up by. 3 . Foxconn industrial among the gainers. The benchmark up for a seventh straight day. Heading to a 52week high. More. L bring keep it here with us. This is bloomberg. You say that customers make their own rules. Lets talk data. Only Xfinity Mobile lets you switch up your wireless data whenever. I accept 5g everybodys talking about it. How do i get it . Everyone gets 5g with our new data options at no extra cost. Thats good. Next item corner offices for everyone. Just have to make more corners in this building. Chad . Your wireless your rules. Only with Xfinity Mobile. Now thats simple easy awesome. Switch and save up to 400 a year on your wireless bill. Plus get 200 off a new Samsung Galaxy s20 ultra. 11 30 a. M. In singapore. We are in the middle of the trading day. The benchmark index up. 3 . A paltry industrials among the movers here. The same dollar trading near a sing dollar trading near a oneweek high. As you know, singapore will hold an election on june 10. Mandate. The pandemic of course one of the issues likely to be a defining issue for the elections. Hard to say how votes will sway on that. Lets get the first word headlines with Karina Mitchell in new york. Nejra Steven Madden Steven Mnuchin says he expects the economy to recover. As the administration considers another round of stimulus payments in the coming days. Speaking at the bloomberg best global event, hes had a new rescue package is being drafted and should pass next month and he is confident in the recovery. The recenthe saw employment numbers. People thought they would be another 8 Million People unemployed. We put 2. 5 Million People to work. Clearly, this is the ppp working. I think you are going to see the economy had a very bad second quarter. I think you will see a spectacular rebound off the bottom in the third quarter. Act in the worlds best interests has plummeted. The annual poll shows just 23 trust beijing to act responsibly on the global stage. Confidence in xi jinping to handle World Affairs is just 22 . President trump does not fare much better. Only 30 trust him. Twitter has hidden a tweet from president for violating policies on harm. The president posted a warning there will never be such a zone in washington, d. C. , adding protesters would be met with serious force. Twitter says that threat breaks its rules. The tweet is still there but it is hidden and users must click elaborately to unveil it. Novak djokovic and his wife have tested positive for covid19. The three other players also have the virus after the event, posing a potential threat to the return of the atp tour. Djokovic says he believed organizers met all health protocols. At that event has now been called off. Powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 100 20 countries, i am Karina Mitchell. This is bloomberg. Haslinda. Calling indonesia is on the central bank to take up more of the burden when it comes to stimulus. The government injected almost 50 billion into the economy using fiscal measures but says Bank Indonesia should pick up the slack on the monetary side. I talked to the finance minister and asked if the central bank could do more. This is exactly the challenge we are discussing. Even Bank Indonesia is already doing their part. Also reducing the Interest Rates. The transmission of the Monetary Policy into the activity stimulating the economy there are a couple of challenges. Looking at the situation. Whether they are constrained by the structure or the of indonesia. Also look at why the Banking Sector is not transmitting this to the real sector so it is in the ministry. What how we are discussing we should do. This requires government involvement. The Banking Sector does not want to during situations. They are liable for Bank Indonesia in this case. This is the one they are discussing with Bank Indonesia as well as the banking system. Reducing Interest Rates and reserve requirements. It is a drive from the monetary side and the banking side. Indonesia, we of stimulate the economy through our spending. We are trying to combine the instruments the effects of the real economy can be felt more effectively. If therendidly said was a second virus wave, you can only pray. What kind of contraction could we possibly see in the indonesian economy if that were to happen . I first, as a minister, as said earlier, we are not only proposing our 2020 budget. Proposing e are changing of the budget. This is because we always continue adjusting how we agree to respond to the development of this covid related situation, whether for the social economy or as a banking system. The second one is also different. At the same time, i have to which the 2021 budget president is going to submit to the parliament next august so you can imagine you are preparing something for 2021 while you actually still cannot world cantry in the say nothing will happen. Is try are going to do to prepare for this kind of scenario. If there will be no second wave, that means the recovery for the Fourth Quarter is beginning very early on. Then, we will be able to accelerate this recovery of the economy. You are making a policy that is the commitment will last for the next 12 years and 12 months for next year while we are still we have to pray. Basically, we always continue praying that this is going to last. The indonesian finance minister. Returning to thailand, the central bank considering tools to address the worst crisis in decades. Michelle joins us now. Survey a hold for the decision. Its about 3. 5 hours away. How do you expect the bank of thailand to explain their policy . Michelle why be expecting a hold in the Interest Rate because there is very little if any space left for them to move on the Interest Rates and they already made three cuts this year. 0. 5 percent which by their own admission is up against the lower bound of policy effectiveness. The main focus is on the Financial Stability side. We saw it jump 3. 3 in the past month, good enough for the asian currency. Something they dont want to see. Its applying more pressure on exports. Growth already is looking among the worst in the region, really. Banks all over the place marking this down as the worst against their peers. We are looking at what they can do. They talked about and pulled through on cheap funding, especially targeting the small and Mediumsized Enterprises needing special support in this crisis. Some facilities to support the Corporate Bond markets. We will see if they have anything more. Really looking to hear how their outlook has changed in terms of the path to recovery and whether or not the controlled infections can continue. Haslinda we have the trade numbers right now and they seem pretty dire. Falling year on year. The estimate was for a contraction of 18 . Exports falling 22. 5 year on year in the estimate for 5. 75 . We have the trade surplus at 2. 6 9 billion dollars. The estimate was for 2. 736 billion so the trade numbers are not looking good, michelle. Likedoes the outlook look in the next couple of months . Michelle i think it will put more pressure on these alternative measures they have been talking about for the last couple months now. I mentioned what they have done but what they are also talking about is other unconventional measures like yield curve control and the largescale asset purchases that have been part of the conversation globally but especially kind of in a different form for emerging markets like thailand. How do they tackle this and do it in a way that does not spook investors for the long run . That will be on the plate of his successor. He has two more meetings left before he is set to step down by the end of september and a few candidates already in the mix for the next position of governor. We will have to see how they all tackle this and what their views are in terms of how severe the outlook is. The trade numbers are bad. Hard to say they would be unexpectedly bad given theres so much uncertainty surrounding the trade and tourism and they are desperate to get that going even on the domestic level as they prepare for lockdowns to ease across the region and hopefully over the coming months, to welcome people back to that tourism hotspot. Haslinda the bhat plays a pretty big factor given the exports have slumped. Whats the outlook for the currency . Michelle that is anyones guess at this point. There is this debate as to whether or not some investors throughout the region, and i think of the rupiah, whether they can hold onto those gains. In indonesias case, it has been a stabilizer. Fairly under been control regarding the currency there. They have been heartened by the investor response to what they are doing on the policy side. We will have to see if that holds true for thailand. At the same time, a little bit more reticent from their part to see a strengthening currency. They are really trying to help their exporters gain a foothold here. We will have to see how investors respond but there is an increasing dissonance where investors are showing a lot of nearterm support but there are a lot of longerterm fundamentals that are weighing against the emerging markets in terms of how they tackle this virus and take on these unconventional measures in a way that makes confidence for investors that they can release them over the long run and ensure Financial Stability. Muchad thank you very indeed. Our Bloomberg Economy reporter. Asing up, voting on july 10 the government seeks a renewed mandate. We will be hearing from the senior minister on how they plan to conduct the election safely. This is bloomberg. Haslinda see michael singapore will vote on june 10 as the government seeks a renewed mandate that has pummeled the city states economy. We spoke to the minister in charge. About how the government is preparing to halt elections safely. We have a lot on our plate going forward. We need that mandate to lead through this crisis and have the support of our people. At the same time, we learned a lot about the virus and finding a way to do the elections safely has now become possible. We know what are the circumstances under which there is risk of spread and how to take steps to protect people will. The operations, the execution of polling and campaigning will be altered in order to make sure it is safe area something we have to do and we are going ahead, as it were, being pressed. A virus isling of expected to be a defining issue. The issue will work for or against the ruling party . It is really hard to be absolutely precise. Being ae of one week long time is true for the pandemics. Its hard to be absolutely sure where we will be right now with cases. If there is poor compliance to the hygiene and restriction orders in place. A lot can change between now and polling day. That is something we are watching out for. Affected us has completely as a total society and made the interrelationships between singapore and the rest of the world, our economy, apparent to all, including our vulnerabilities that we have discussed for some time. How this translates into results on polling data, i would not like to have that. This is not something we want punditry. Case outo put our there to the people of singapore about what we have done, the measures we have taken. The results are there for the people of singapore to see and they will be the best judge of this. The reality really is that i think this election is going to be not so much about what has happened already but what is the anticipation of the future and plans to come to deal with the future of this crisis as well as our country. Haslinda singapore is tapping technology to ensure that the pandemic is contained. It is the first country to rule out a National Rollouts a Contact Tracing app. Tell us why this did not work initially and how confident are you that it will . I will take you to task on the fact that you said it did not work initially. It is working just great. On a technical level. The issue is firstly that we have not got past the threshold of adoption for it to transform the way we do Contact Tracing but that was never the point. We have a very robust and effective Contact Tracing process. The trace together program as well as the other Technology Tools we have deployed were meant as an augmentation to our Public Health response. Ism that perspective, it working and it has been working. Give us a sense of the broad strategy when it comes to tapping technology. The u. K. Has decided to ditch its own app for that. What is singapores broad strategy . Janil we did not ditch anything. Lets be clear. Our app and our trace protocol came out some significant time before apple and googles notification program. It was being deployed and has been downloaded by 2. 1 30 million singaporeans. We hadted long before wind of apple and googles plans for the program. Our strategy has been to speed up the process, and what we needed was a way to make sure our tools could be deployed for all singaporeans and that is why we have the trays together app and that will be complemented by the token. , as we put the two together well as an integration with other technical tools, digital tools, we have the possibility behelping every singaporean part of this program. That is an important part of this consideration. Janil puthucheary. From that. More the timing of the election has been questioned. Why . Because we guess have just emerged from the lockdown, the second of a threephase emergence from the law down, so lots of questions as to whether it is safe. When it comes to timing, it is widely expected. We know parliament has to be dissolved in january. Elections have to be held by april. The government is running out of time. We heard from the Prime Minister in his address to the nation yesterday that he wants to seize this stability in virus cases right now because theres so much uncertainty how this virus will play out, whether there will be a second wave of virus cases. He also highlighted what happened in south korea. They held their elections successfully. Singapore came to the same. If those measures are put in place as well. They have assured the country that measures will be put in place and social distancing will happen. There will be no rallies outside. It will be done indoors, through television, as well as online. All precautions will be taken to ensure that things go well the same as they did in south korea. Tell me, what about the issues, pandemic, very quickly. And also, that we have got the Prime Ministers estranged brother joining in on all of this. Have yet to confirm that. Once we do, it will be quite an interesting twist to the whole political situation in singapore. The two brothers have been at odds over the property of the father, the founding father of modern singapore. Confirmation on that. In terms of how the virus will play out during the elections, it is hard to say. We saw how they overlooked the the 300,000 Foreign Workers and that eventually led to the strictest lockdown in the country. How that will play out depends the governor to impose measures, 20 of gdp. That has helped singaporeans overcome the pain of them pandemic. A lot that you should consider on july 10. Ok, we will be bringing you some of the biggest names across finance, economics, and investing from the bloomberg lublin best summit. Bloomberg summit. All of those are coming out at look out for david solomon. Do not miss this exclusive interview. This is bloomberg. Back withou are Bloomberg Markets as we talk about mongolia. The country was hailed as an oasis of democracy by john kerry. That will be put to the test again. Issuesave a look at the with our man on the spot, terry edwards. How is the government handling covid19 . How bad has covid19 been . Mongolian law does not allow us to make any full predictions. Just looking at the poll i visited today, icp all in some cases practicing social distances but not in all cases. May have asked voters to follow special precautions. They went through the process where i stepped into the building where they asked me to use my disinfectant, and they gave me some gloves to wear. They will not let you and if you have not done those things. It is really outside the buildings where guidelines will not be sickly of course, but there are police i have seen to maybe help out with that. Order of the main things of this election themes of this election . What has happened . Election,this years wide range. We have over 600 candidates, so hopefully, there is a candidate for everyone. In the past, that was the main complaint, especially for younger voters. Wouldre always saying i like to participate but i dont see anyone for me. When it comes to what voters are thinking about, i think mongolias response to covid19 will play a role in whether mongolians should keep the mongolians Peoples Party in power. We will see tomorrow if that remains. Mongolia has had covid19 cases but its mostly been there is a caveat that testing has mostly been focused on repatriated citizens, citizens returning to mongolia from abroad. Rishaad quick ordered theres been some troubling news about interference in this election. What sparked this off . Terrence there were arrests in the weeks leading up to this election and that raises questions. One political watcher mentioned, of course, you have to take every Corruption Case on a casebycase basis, but with multiple arrests just before the elections, it definitely raises eyebrows. At least one campaign has come to me and they are claiming this was a political arrest. I really cannot comment on the efficacy of those things. Another component were the changes to the election law made. Shuffling elections is really common here and theres good and bad. Rishaad thank you so much for that. Terrence edwards joining us on the line. We are seeing a mixed bag for asian equities. Dollar slipping and the new zealand bank keeping rates on hold. Haslinda. Haslinda that is it for Bloomberg Markets asia. Daybreak middle east is next. Save hundreds on your wireless bill without even leaving your house. Just keep your phone and switch to Xfinity Mobile. You can get it by ordering a free sim card online. Once you activate, youll only have to pay for the data you need starting at just 15 a month. There are no term contracts, no activation fees, and no credit check on the first two lines. Get a 50 prepaid card when you switch. Its the most reliable wireless network. And it could save you hundreds. Xfinity mobile. The following is a paid program. The opinions and views expressed do not reflect those of bloomberg lp, its affiliates, or its employees. The following is a paid presentation brought to you by rare collectibles tv. Narrator our country was founded on life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness. Representing this idealism is our american eagle. The bald eagle was chosen in 1782 to represent the United States, because of its long life, majestic looks, and great strength. The eagle has since become part of our countrys national emblem. In 1986, the u. S. Mint had a large surplus of silver, and president reagan signed bill to produce a new silver dollar. It was called the American Silver eagle