People that have lost their jobs since march, it does not take into account the huge sways of selfemployed people in the u. K. There are many people that are away from work and not being paid, not included in these statistics. The expectation is that these numbers get significantly worse. The pressure is on the chancellor to do something to extend the current solo scheme. Single conversation point yesterday across bloomberg surveillance was mark zandi of moodys, forcefully saying the Unemployment Rate in america is not 10 , he said it is in the vicinity of 14 . With news on this tuesday, our first word news, here is ritika gupta. Ritika President Trump says he is seriously considering a Capital Gains tax cut. He told reporters he would create a lot more jobs. The president cannot cut taxes on his own, but some advisors say he could issue an executive for a Purchase Price the Administration May travelers prevent from returning to the u. S. If it of if they have coronavirus. Federal agencies have been asked for feedback. The police chief has resigned ther the city council cut department budget. It is the latest news by a local government to cut Police Funding in the wake of protests over Police Killings of black people. That it seattle warns would jeopardize public safety. In the u. K. Come employment in the Second Quarter fell by the most since the financial crisis. By number of jobs declined 20,000. But 220 thousand. That is when lockdown restrictions were most severe, and it is likely that it could get worse. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more im her thistries, is bloomberg. Ticker group to. This is bloomberg. Right to the data, equities, bonds, currencies, commodities. I have never seen this folks, the spread in germany. Guy, the Current Conditions is a huge 81, but Investor Expectations vault far higher than a 55 statistic. Call 55 the center point, nearish, coming in at 71. 5. The dynamics of confidence, with germany or britain or america, is just extraordinary right now, isnt it . Guy currently very bad, and expectations that it will improve and dramatically. This is a survey of investors, and it changes and can change quite quickly, tom. It is not a kind of benchmark of what is happening in the real economy, but nevertheless, investors are expecting things to get better. The consensus range in terms of the forecast was 40 to 65. 71. 5, a much plus better than anticipated number. In terms of what that is doing for the markets, very little. Light volume characterizing what is happening here in europe. It is slightly better than yesterday, but still a fairly august like day. The other thing that is worth paying attention to is what is going on with the u. K. Economy and the data there continues to be grim. Tom let me do the data really quick. The data is up 22 points. We have a nice lift to the equity markets. The real yield has come in. We have better real yield, less negative real yield, and that is caused by gold. Guy . Guy lets talk to jane foley and get her take on all of this, tom. She joins us from rabobank. She is the head of fx strategy. The data makes grim reading. Does the pound have any business being in the 1. 30 range against the dollar . In their reason it is ranges because of dollar weakness. If we look against the euro, it is a little below that 90 level, but in recent weeks it has been really hovering above 90. If we look at that chart, the u. S. Earnings chart, back to the referendum in 2016, we see it spent very little time above the 90 level, and yet in recent weeks it has been up there quite a lot. In my mind, that suggests sterling is quite a vulnerable currency, very much focused on focused on the brexit story. And also Scottish Independence, Something Else that could be attracting more attention for sterling in the coming months. I think sterling is vulnerable. Very much a function of dollar weakness. You think of the dollar is significantly overdone. Why . Jane first of all, i would say that, yes, we have weakened dollar fundamental. Strengthened euro fundamentals with the Recovery Fund and what the ecb has done in recent months to really push back and talk of fragmentation. Both those fundamentals improving the story. For the dollar, we have some weakened fundamentals, too. The real yield story, a lot in terms of policy measures with the weakened dollar. With the shortterm fundamentals, i certainly would not be in the camp to say that the dollar demise is over. If we talk about which currency is going to be dominant in the Global Payments system, it is the dollar. If we talk about the reserve system, it is the dollar. There is an interesting piece of research. We are talking about invoicing. We know that invoicing for the dollar is really dominant, and i found a piece of research from eurostat that said in 2018, half of all import into the euro system were in dollars, denominated in dollars. We can assume that is even more in emerging markets, and with the bif said is that what is really important for reserves is the invoicing currency for trade. So as long as there is a lot of dollar trade, the chances are that reserves are going to be very predominant in dollars, too. That is import for the dollar, the fundamentals of the currency, not necessarily for the u. S. Itself. Tom i look at so many different currency pairs, and they seem like a reversion to the mean or somewhere in the vicinity of trend, from whatever the trend was before, whatever the big move was before. If we have seen all the excitement, is there a big move, ability here, or do you just think everything seems narrow after we have seen this reversion to the mean . Think of to be honest, i think the moves that we have seen, particularly in the currency with eurodollar have been exceptional, particularly with the volatility we saw last year. In a month or so, it did everything it had done in the second half of last year. Huge amounts of volatility. That is not particularly normal, so i think we have had a huge amount of repositioning in the market already, and that is another reason why i wonder if this is now a little bit overextended. Untilht have to wait september to see proper liquidity and proper direction. I am worried that it is overextended at this point. Tom gold trades off the real yield, and the 10year statistic in america is in eight basis points. That is a big move from the huge plunge that we saw, very low negative real yields in america. Do currencies trade the real yield . Jane i think they do, but it is all relative. When we see a currency, we have got to compare it with with with what the real yield is elsewhere. Sometimes i think this can be a little bit of a mistake that commentators can make in terms of looking at the dollar. They look at the u. S. Fundamentals and they say the fed is cutting Interest Rates, yields are moving in one direction in the u. S. , and therefore it is going to impact the dollar. We have to look at what is happening elsewhere. The inflation or the lack of inflation is going to be a massive theme over the next two, five years, etc. This will be really important for what happens to Central Bank Policy and what happens to currencies. But right now i think for some currencies, it could be a little bit of a race to the bottom. Nobody particularly wants a strong currency when there is no inflation. This could really be demonstrated perhaps in Central Bank Policy in the next few years. Is feelingy optimistic about the future. Will that show up in the currency market . Jane i think perhaps it already has. If we look at the euro, we have seen an awful lot of optimism priced in there. If we look at you said it already a few minutes ago, guy. This is a survey of investors. And we see stockmarkets Risk Appetite going up, it encourages investors. We still have not just q2 data but q3 data. What is going to happen to q3 data . Is this going to be much worse . Is this going to be a reality check . Is this going to impact what investors do . I think that is still a really big risk, and a lot of it hinges on whether we have positive news on the vaccine or not. There is a huge amount of unknown out there. I still think it poses a significant amount of risk. Guy jane, stick around. Jane foley of rabobank. The conversation will continue. What else do we have going up this hour . Adam posen. He does not think inflation is coming. We will talk about that later on. This is bloomberg. Guy Tom Bloomberg surveillance. Guy johnson in london in for francine. Im tom keene in new york. To. 86. Ures up you just mentioned, guy, italy, 10 year, another example of the risk on feel that weve got. Guy it is another example of the ecb dominating the market. It cares less about the capital than it once did. It has been buying italy aggressively. The spread had tightened. Is it a realistic reflection of the risk between those economies . A number people a number of people are questioning that right now. Tom that is the artificiality that we see in the markets. Ane foley, how do you play new risk on feel. If the vix goes from 80 to 21. 18, what do we knew next . Jane first of all, we need to focus on the data coming out. There is good news priced in, but the data that keeps coming out is not particularly encouraging. Data isa, you kate gdp going to be even worse probably. From that point of view, i think we need to be quite cautious. I think there is a lot of very good news and a lot of assets already purchased in. Tom the greatest debate i see besides australian dollar, japanese yen still very dumb and as a currency. What is the rabobank currents what is the rabobank call on yen . Jane if we think about what makes the yen go higher, often it is geopolitical tensions, and it is geopolitical tension in the asian region. What we have now is not just tiny china contentions with china with u. K. And with canada. For the market i think the yen can play really quite firm. The end is nonthats airily respond to domestic japanese fundamentals. Tom when you say higher, do you mean a weaker yen or stronger yen . Jane i mean the dollaryen pushing lower. 1. 05 levels, i think we can hold down there. There is plenty of worrying news, and i think we will see more of that over the coming quarter. Guy jane, lets talk about china. Have dollar trading at 1. 69. Are they comfortable in china with that at 1. 69 . Where do you think that currency is going . Jane of course, dollar weakness is something we should have played very much into the cross, but we do have still a lot of way to go in terms of trade with the u. S. And china. That is not going to stop because we have an election. It wont stop, i dont think, if we get a democrat in the white house. What we have no is fairly entrenched caution and suspicion in the u. S. Relative to china, and i think that spreads out elsewhere, too. I think what happens in trade between those two countries, is going to be a very dominant market issue. Still, in the next few years, i think it will have a significant aspect on the outlook for the chinese economy. If you go back a couple of years, we are very much worried about the amount of debt and china. That is still an issue. I think Going Forward, we cannot rule out another bout of weakness in the renminbi. When we get beyond the Current Space of dollar weakness. Like,hat does that look and how does washington respond . Currency management has been an issue for d. C. For quite some time when it comes to the chinese. They accept, with a tolerate with they accept, would they tolerate . How will they respond . Jane they will not like it. Irrespective of who is in the white house, the treasury would not like that. It very much depends on the background. If we were in a scenario with x amount of views in the future where you see a significant slowdown in chinese growth, i think it is natural that we would eventually have that reflected in the weaker chinese currencies, as you would in most economies. Now, i think what we have got to feed into that equation is the pace at which that happens. If we saw a very strong move, i think that is more likely to worry the u. S. Treasury. If it was more gradual, if the fundamentals were weaker but perhaps it would be easier to get it passed u. S. Treasury, i think there are two many there are too many permutations, combinations with a strong opinion on that already. But i think in the future at some point, we are looking at potentially a weaker renminbi. For jane, ive got to pay backtoschool supplies. What is your conviction trade right now . Jane eurodollar is clearly at the top of everyones agenda. I think we are looking at some point where we will see some sort of reversal. But i think we will have to wait until september. Beyond that, i think that sterling is vulnerable. Watching eurosterling closer, that is hovering at the 90 level. Briggs it worries are going to come back in the autumn, and a less brexit are going to come back in the autumn. I think sterling against the euro can go a hell of a lot weaker. Tom we see the grim unemployment today, what guy told us, where is your belief in sterling . 1. 20 five, even lower . Jane certainly where we have dollar weakness, this is why we have got cable at 1. 30. It disguises the weaker sterling that we have seen at against the euro. Remain it is going to quite well supported, but i think we will see some sort of pullback. , that level. Watching brexit news, watching the Scottish Independence issue, i think eurosterling gives a pure view. Notesuy was taking because he has backtoschool supplies to buy, too. Jane foley with rabobank. Really interesting there on the urodynamic. Gideon rose is always interesting. Virtual,eresting interesting when he joins us in the studio. From Foreign Affairs magazine. His is interesting he considers President Trump. Gideon rose with us in the 6 00 hour. This is bloomberg. Good morning. Ritika this is bloomberg surveillance. Lets get to the bloomberg flesh. Global rally in Technology Shares lifted the value of softbanks stakes and publicly traded firms like uber. It also boosted valuations to the Japanese Investment in tech startups. Hit 11. 6 billion dollars. It is an early loss in a court battle that the gig industry cannot afford to lose. A judge has ordered uber and lyft to convert their drivers to employees with benefits. Companies plan to appeal, reclassifying the drivers could force the companies to pay overtime and health care benefits. Some of the Biggest Tech Companies in the u. S. Are lining up against President Trumps ban on temporary foreign workers. Among them, amazon, facebook, apple, and microsoft. President suspended a number of nonimmigrant visa programs. The Tech Industry has joined a lawsuit against the ban. That is your Bloomberg Business flash. That. E greatly appreciate riskonfield today, dow futures up 2. 81. And the vix really interests me, coming in 21. 21 right now. Almost down a full big figure. That really gets us back. I have to look at where we are back to in terms of march or the bliss of february as well. Gold prints under 2000, right now 2005 on the comic future. . On the comics future. Guy . Up by 13 ,oxx 600 is the ftse is up 2 as is the cac, as is the dax. One of the stronger performers in terms of points, the biggest position to the markets, which is interesting that the money is going into that fly. Yield, german unsurprisingly, was selling bonds today on a big update. We are going to talk about what is happening in turkey. Our guests from soft and will be joining us next. This is bloomberg. Of 25, nice advance to the market right now. Guy johnson in london. I am tom keene in new york. One of our best and brightest of fiscal policy. One of our best and brightest on the Retirement Crisis in america. In conversation with peter orszag. Massiveve been to a first wave of restructuring and i think the second wave really depends on what we were just talking about, that many of the weaknesses at Many Companies have been disguised or hidden by very significant Government Support as that support is withdrawn or not continued at the same rate, the pressure on many corporate will become more manifest. I personally, unfortunately, think we will see another significant way that encrypts these across wave of bankruptcy. Cook people want to talk about the work youre doing with your corporate client but this year alone, lazard has had some very significant sovereign advisory work, lebanon being one of them, argentina being another. Can you explain what you are seeing for sovereign debt . What kind of demand do investors have to invest in countries that have these issues related to the pandemic but then all of these other addon issues that are rising as well . What is happening in many countries some of them that are lazard clients had preexisting conditions, if you will, that are exacerbated by the pandemic. For a whole set of other countries, the pandemic is causing a lot of fiscal pressure, just like it is here in the United States for state and local governments and also a substantial increase in the federal deficit. Revenue declines. You need to have additional spending dell cushion the blow from the pandemic. The result of that is a significant increase in public debt. For many sovereigns are across the globe, theyre not in a position to handle that Additional Debt and that causes a debt crisis, as it were. We are having some promising signs about creditors, governments coming together in argentina, ecuador, and elsewhere to deal with these problems before they become outright crises. We will have to see whether that spirit of cooperation can continue into what inevitably will be other sovereign debt problems over the next year or two. The issue of more sovereign debt problems arising, how do you think of that obviously, these are countries with much weaker financial positions, but what becomes of the United States as our debt level starts to swell . The Congressional Budget Office has a report today on the deficit for the first 10 months of this year and it is more than double than last year. That is not surprising. We are running a fiscal experiment but it is one we have to run because the alternative of not providing support to the impact of offset the the pandemic would be much worse. It would cause longlasting damage to the economy. Yes, debt is increasing in the United States but that is ok. Peter, you have a birds eye view on how Corporate America is reacting to a lot of these tensions that are being created between u. S. And china. What is of chief concern to your clients right now . The relationship with china is complicated. I would say in the Technology States in particular, you are seeing a lot of tension, much more rapid deterioration in the relationship, and what many people of called the Technology Cold war. In other aspects, we need to remember the relationship with china is much bigger than what you read about in the newspaper where themberg flashpoints are. Most are in technology. That has been building for a while and has accelerated over the past several months. There are Many Companies concerned about the implications. We will just have to see how this lays out. Ceo of theorszag, Financial Advisory firm speaking exclusively to bloomberg. Reporting its first local covid19 case in 102 days. It looks like it spread with it a family as well. New zealand has appeared to be an oasis of calm on this front. Lets catch up with other news as well. President trumps and run failed to get stalled negotiations going again. Deadlocked over an aid package. No sign there ready to resume talks. Both sides agree jobless benefits should be extended that republicans balk at the democratic proposal to give money to state and local governments hurt by the coronavirus. Joe biden could name his running mate as early as midweek. The democratic president ial nominee has finished interviewing all the top candidates. Biden promised he would pick a woman to be his Vice President ial candidate. Vladimir putin is claiming victory in the race to develop a coronavirus vaccine. He says their countries come out with a vaccine that offers a lasting immunity. He says one of his daughters has been inoculated. However, the russian vaccine was registered before phase three trials. Those trials normally last a month and involve thousands of people. The British Government is overhauling that countries criticize program of tracing the movements of coronavirus patients. Theres been essentialist army of officials looking for people who come in contact with infected people, been replaced by locally based teams who will knock on doors in the neighborhood. Global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. This is bloomberg. Tom thank you. Move, 21. 4 21. 14. Under 15. Just calm pervades. There is no, in washington. Coming up, balance of power, eric cantor. This will be interesting. A mr. Meadows, the white house, the republicans on the hill. Stay with us. Features of 26. This is bloomberg. Guy johnson in london and tom keene in new york. Lets talk about a subject weve been focusing on, turkey. Says he wants another round of Interest Rate cuts in order to attract investments into his country. This follows and absent in the markets last week. Its in the liver of plunging to another record low against the dollar. Joining us in phoenix kalen. Good morning. The president wants another rate cut. The president wants another round of rate cuts. Is that a good idea right now . I think would be a disastrous idea. We have seen president erdogan has gotten his way for the past year or so since the new governor came online. He brought Interest Rates down to almost 1600 basis points and he has managed to keep his word that Interest Rates would be in the single digits. But as we have seen, this meant turkey had to deploy huge amounts of reserves to keep the currency stable. They are not able to do much more at this. I think if Interest Rates go down further, and right now they are the lowest real policy rates in em, if they go lower still, i would like to see much more pressure on the currency, likely to see them too much more to get the situation stable and that is not a tenable situation. Has inesident erdogan meterst he sat two away from where im sitting right now back in 2018 and because the currency to collapse with the words he used. He is at it again. How high is the risk of a blowup . How high is the risk of a proper implosion . A i think at this point, it is not our best Case Scenario because i think we have seen what happened what happened exactly two years ago when we had the currency crisis. The pain is still very raw. They have ingested those kinds of lessons from that terrible experience. So i dont think they are likely to repeat the scenario again. I think theyre likely to try a different policy mix. I think it is not that they will reverse our policies and high Interest Rates, not that they are going to allow the currency isfloat and have the economy just naturally, but much more a middleweight where they will intervene further in the markets by regulations, by some reserves but less than before, and try to keep stable ultimately, i think i still have to reverse what they have done with respect to Interest Rates. I do think they have to implement a gradual task of Interest Rates higher over the next year. Gradualre is nothing about this. Your Research Note is exquisite. It makes no sense whatsoever because the policy makes no sense. The key item in your Research Note is you calculate 2. 8 months of reserves. There is no way you can move forward with 2. 8 months of reserves. What do they do about that and who tells their leadership what to do . Is the challenge. The policymakers have not been able to convince president erdogan this is a dangerous and unnecessarily cool path for the country to go down on. They have not been able to convince them of this. I think what it means, their hands are tied and they might have to do some backdoor channels with respect to tightening up liquidity, tightening up the funding rates as well. 2. 8 months of reserves left is not much at all. It is below minimum levels. That is why they are running dry. Persistency is extraordinary. Is it going to take eight lira to the dollar . What changes what is clearly about textbook irrational behavior . Level where the attitude is adjusted . Going to be the mechanism that forces them to change their strategy. We saw that last week. We have seen them having to basically basically, theyre running out of reserves and that had to let the currency go a bit and have it naturally adjust. We have seen those upward movements. Ishink more upward movements necessary to force them into the right direction of trying to ultimately bring up Interest Rates. Possibly at a gradual path. Could have anthey emergency rate hike and have that scene as an ultimate failure of erdogans position. Guy the president is going to have to make some tough changes. The Interest Rate hike would be one. That would be an admission of failure. There are others he could take. The Missile System which has put turkey on a collision course with washington. Its entanglements in syria. Its entanglements in the mediterranean when it comes to energy strategy. Their multiple entanglements att ankara is engaged with the moment. Are there political labels levers the president can pull that would be less damaging than maybe hiking Interest Rates . I think hiking Interest Rates is the least painful of those options. Turkey is very interested in pursuing its National Interests with respect to energy needs around the Eastern Mediterranean , trying to maintain relationships with russia, with the missile story. I dont think were likely to see deescalation there. I think the Interest Rate channel is the most obvious and the easiest one for them to implement. If they dont want to lose faith high, large basis point they do it gradually. Guy in terms of how the population is perceiving this, one of the critical factors allowing the banks to be able to slow the decline of the currency has been the individual investors have not been withdrawing dollars from those banks. Is there any chance that we do withdrawals retail again, im worrying at what level that starts to become real. I think we are seeing increasing amounts of deposits in the system, but as you say, they are still in the system which means there is still trust in the banking system. We do see huge amounts of currency volatility, those behaviors will be triggered. Two years ago is not a long time. This is still fresh in their memories. That is one constraint the policymakers are facing and why they need to consider something more gradual and something that is going to be effective in preventing retail run. , cant sayx kalen enough about the quality of the research. Phoenix kalen. We have a lot more coming up. We have mark issa with this with pimco and adam posen will join us. We will speak with dr. Pozen here on inflation. As well as the european experiment. Soul, low Interest Rates. This is bloomberg. Tom bloomberg surveillance. Good morning, everyone. Guy johnson tom keene. Right now to help us through the hour and into the next hour, Adam Jones Adam posen joins us. Aboutot really say enough dr. Posen. His knowledge in cultural perspective on the continent of europe is a firstorder condition in america. Guy, why dont you bring in dr. Posen. Guy we had a solid survey this morning, germany seemed pretty positive Going Forward from here. That cost a lot of people this horrible number coming out of the u. K. In terms of unemployment. Three quarters of a Million People have lost their jobs between march and july. The number likely to grow. Adam, lets bring you in on the first thought about what is happening here in the united kingdom. Can the chancellor afford to in the furlough schemes . Afford to stop supporting this economy . , he could and afforded the same way that George Osborne could afford austerity. You can make a very costly mistake and you not eminently thrown out of office, but immediately thrown out of office, but Interest Rates have not gone up and it would not make any sense for them to cut back at this point. The economy is genuinely weak. It is doing much more weak than most of the other g7, g20 economies. Should not say g20, but the other european, japanese economies. Guy . What do you do with that . The u. K. Has a number of headwinds. Brexit is one that will reemerge later on this year. The employment market seems to be absolutely critical right now , trying to keep people attached to their jobs looks to be very difficult. That unemployment number is going to go up and up. How much scarring is the u. K. Going to be left with . How much longterm degradation of growth are we going to see . I think the longterm degradation of growth is less a function of scarring and more a function of what parts of the economy need to shut down and shrink. You have an enormous hospitality sector in the u. K. , larger Education Sector come in person Retail Sector all of which, over time, will have to move. I dont mean to make light of scarring, meaning people have longterm effects about being temporarily unemployed. It is a wearable process, but the fact is what we saw in the recovery from the previous crisis was that people are bad or better able to come back to work that people thought. You just have to give them the opportunity. The issue will be restructuring the u. K. Economy. Supposedly, the british system is good at that. We will see. Tom adam, good morning. We have a generational change in europe. More about this than i do. How would be of a deal is this . You look at this like helmut kohl bigness or is it a modern and less smooth procedure . I think, tom, youre raising a really good question. Which is how much of a break point is this . Wasart because kohl succeeded by merkel, it was less of a brake that we expected it to be. You and i have talked in the past, i was in kohls office in 1992 in the u. K. Dropped out of the erm. Whatever else you say about the chancellor, was a european and he wanted to make the thing work. And merkel has shown herself in recent months to finally in the end be a true european. I think it will be different, not so much if it is schulz, but if it is her successor in the seems to have moved to the right and moved antieuropean. Maybe they did that out of reaction to free writing on merkels leadership. We will have to see. Tom it comes off the bond operation. It has been clear that a bond workout is necessary. Do you consider what we saw a few weeks ago to be a bond workout . I think many are out there saying the right thing, which is what you know the late peter cannon told us decades ago making it work without some common fiscal capacity is very difficult. I do think this is a genuine bond shift. I think the europeans have noten their act together 100 , certainly, but in a more meaningful way than previously. Tom a chemist of that and posted on your and the united kingdom. Guy johnson, really difficult Employment Data today out of britain. Coming up, we will continue with adam posen. We want to speak to him about the inflation debate in the United States. I do want to speak about the stimulus debate as well. I need to frame for you right now the data. The data is simple. It is a huge risk on file and you really see it indicated by a vix, 21. 16. 20,000 on the doubt. 27,958 on futures come up almost 300 points. S p up. Even nasdaq participated today after really not participating yesterday. Off its mark yesterday. You see it with yields up. The correlations are simple. The inflationadjusted yield is at nine basis points from a terrible negative number to a lesser negative number. That correlates directly with gold, right now printing under 2000. That is remarkable. Stay with us. Adam posen next. This is bloomberg. What happens when a wireless carrier puts its customers in charge . Well, the good news gets shared. And it gets rated 1 for customer satisfaction. But dont just take our word for it. Take theirs. Its your wireless. Your rules. Only with xfinity mobile. Call, click or visit a store today. Tom this morning in britain, jobseekers allowance also known as income support. In america, there is absolute silence as talks on income support have completely halted. It is august 11. By one estimate, 82 of new York City Restaurants cannot pay the rent. Gold drops. Real yields not as grim as they were, gold slipping under 2000 an ounce. Inflation is out there somewhere. In this hour, adam posen henri inflating an economy. Good morning, everyone. Guy johnson in per Francine Lacqua in london. I have to go to the british employment statistics. Were they a surprise or was the grimness expected . Was expected and expected to go even grimmer. We come out of the summer into the