A beautiful new york today. Good morning in washington boston. Early good morning out in san francisco, to all of you across this nation on sirius xm. We also say good morning to anna edwards in london. Why are we doing this . It is august. Ferro is off. From whats is off abramowitz is off. I said, i want anna edwards, and here she is. I am going to go optimism here with bob doll any moment, with home depot and walmart and all that. Explain to our american audience the place of Marks Spencer in the United Kingdom psychology, and what it means that one in 10 bodies will be shown the door. This isnt necessarily a very optimistic way to start the hour, but Marks Spencer, a huge retailer that was on every high street in the u. K. It is going to be getting rid of one in 10 of its staff, mostly through retirements and the like, but it is not just about covid19. This is a secular trend that has been affecting the retailers. Not only do they have to deal with the fact that a lot of their customers are migrating online, they have to migrate online, and that means cost. They have to invest at the same time, trying to shore up the revenue. ,om walmart with that headline up 97 on their online with the pandemic and all. Frame amazon because the wall street journal today saying that amazon will expand Corporate Office space in a number of u. S. Cities. Where does amazon fit into that retail mix . Anna huge presence in the u. K. , just like avarua else, i suppose. A lot of talk about whether they team up with any grocers here in the u. K. , but not so just yet. In europe, we are also focused on the virus and the ongoing outbreak. In equities, we are driven by bigger, more global liquidity forces perhaps this august. Tom some Research Notes saying it could be a length of time of the various were in teens various quarantines across many parts of europe as well. Futures are up 4 . Nasdaq futures may be leading the way once again. We has some good bond conversations, and a really smart conversation there. Dollar weaker, a change. Eurodollar really sustained. I mentioned turkish lira. Clearly a battle for the turkish government. I could rounded up to 7. 40, which is not good area that is a week turkish lira. We need to watch that through this hour through this hour of bloomberg surveillance. Robert doll of nuveen is a smart guy on framing the why. Hes one of those people that gives you courage to stay in the market so maybe you can make some money with home depot. Doll, you know that you have a stock, and then they go up off of news or something. How do you identify Companies Like home depot or apple that just, every quarter, seemed to do it, and every quarter seem to go up . Own both thankfully stocks. These are companies that have fedex that are interesting. Second of all, they manage their business well. Third of all, they generate a bunch of cash. If you can find companies to do those three things rather consistent, generally you are going to be in shape on those stocks. The home depot news, the walmart news, they are really good business. Tom i want you to speak to the people who are not robert doll. They dont have your experience. They dont have your sense of history. What do you say to the people who missed the boat . How do you get back on board any ebitda that is not in book we studied . Robert you have to agree that a year from now, the stock market is going to be higher than it is today. That is my view because the economy will be doing better, earnings will be higher, and maybe we have a vaccine area that doesnt we will have shortterm bumps along the way, but people are probably going to be higher a year from now than today. So dollar cost average into those stocks you think are in the stratosphere and you have missed if they have the propositions we just talked about and are not ridiculously valued. Home depot is up a lot, but it is still not horribly expensive. Anna i was reading some Research Today that cites the National Association of investors, talking about those who were previously bearish joining in this was joining in with this rally. Does that match with your bullish view of u. S. Stocks . Robert i am also in the camp that we are a little ahead of ourselves in the short term. Weve come a long way. Weve retraced the entire bear market. Earnings today are nowhere near where they were when stocks were at the alltime high in february. We have an election. We have a bill we cant seem to pass. Valuation levels are not particularly cheap. I can make a cautious case. I dont see big downside, but those who are a little nervous, if you have a ton of cash, youve got to step up and put some in, and my view. If you have been fully invested the whole way and want to dig a prophet or two, im on with that is all. If you want to take a on to or two, im that as well. Anna we talked about the virus ticking upwards in various parts of europe, and yet that doesnt weigh on your story. What do you make of europe . Robert it is the liquidity story for equities overall. The u. S. No longer has the interestrate advantage it had versus the rest of the world, and the u. S. Is the most offensive market in the world. So if you postulate that the globe is going to do a little better economically, nonus markets are probably going to do better. Then you layer on top of that the dollar, and we experience International Stocks do better. It is fairly cheap, and i think we will continue to do better here in the near term. Nuveen is a Venerable Institution looking at the longterm of investment. The leadership of Roger Ferguson is noted. What do you advise mr. Ferguson and others about the actuarial assumption that we are all going to live with . What is our actuarial assumption reality . Well, life spans we know are getting longer. I had a friend who retired recently at 65 and said, i guess i should go all in bonds. I said, wait a minute. Hes married, and they are both pretty healthy. At least one of you is going to live to 90. Dont run away from equities. Wheres no 25 year period stocks havent beaten up i think. The other actuarial assumption we have to think about is what is the longterm return for the additional for the traditional 6040 blend. It is not going to be what it has been. It is going to be much lower. That is the reality that these longterm Asset Allocation programs will have. The i am setting him up for second question. Bob doll, if that is the reality of a lower actuarial assumption, do you go more diversified or less diversified, or maybe more general . How do you diversify . To haveyou have diversification, but it is not just stocks and bonds. There are alternative assets that have to be considered in portfolios. Tia, big investor in farmland. That is an area for diversification. Within u. S. Equities where i spent my career, youve got to invest in companies that are going to make it happen. So you might want to make a more targeted portfolio in an where the market is not going to lift every boat. Tom robert doll, as always, thank you. He is with nuveen. These are really important changes we see. I could about to that headline i saw last year in the United Kingdom. I figure i was at the net across from our office is having a drink, and there was the my ial assumption over actuarial assumption. Extort mary extraordinary. We are just extending out and setting up. I get messages from a lot of listeners and viewers that trust me. Res never meant plan listeners and viewers, and trust me, there is no retirement plan. Dow futures up 45. The vix to me is a huge story, with a 21 40. Jon ferro has been great on on smallcap,tion international to domestic stocks. All i can tell you is maybe home depot, maybe walmart are the new faang stocks of the future. Just terrific numbers there as well. Dollar weaker. W. E euro, 1. 1905, wo this is bloomberg on radio, on television. Stay with us. Ritika with the first word news, im ritika. Bernie sanders all but begged his supporters to vote for a joe biden last night. Spoke on Opening Night of the Democratic National convention. Sen. Sanders if donald trump gets elected come out of the progress we have made will be in jeopardy. At its most basic, this election is about preserving our democracy. Ritika senders acknowledged that bidens Health Care Plan fell short of his vision, but touted the proposal nonetheless. President trump added a trip to iowa to his schedule today. His support has been slipping in. State he won by 9 when he 16 2016. 9 in the Trump Administration moved tocurb huaweis access chips. Trump says he doesnt want their equipment here because they spy on us. Canadas finance minister has abruptly resigned. That leaves trudeau with a major hole in his cabinet in the midst of a recession. His were place and will not be former bank of England Governor Mark carney, who has been advising trudeau on his economic ever plan economic recovery plan. The Worlds Largest retailer versus strongerthanexpected online sales. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. I medicaid. This is im ritika gupta. This is bloomberg. Im sure there are republicans and independents who cant imagine crossing over to sapore democrat. They feared to support a democrat. They fear joe will turn left. I dont believe that because i know the measure of the man. Reasonable, faithful, respectful, and no one pushes joe around. Tom virtual Political Tension last night as the general one from ohio comes out for the gentleman from delaware, and support of Vice President biden. I am sure we will see much more of that. David westin and Kevin Cirilli with our coverage. Tonight, i believe that 10 00 p. M. , with continued coverage. Right now we want to see someone not so much in the trenches, but steep in policy and the changes in this nation. Smikle has a phd out of columbia, but hes one of the people that actually does. ,ots of people have a cable tv the hot air of politics, but others are out there doing it. Hes within the chart of hes within the Charter School system in harlem. You are all about the doing. Tell our viewers how the bidenharris team will do when they are elected. Basil that is the open question that i think yesterday did a little bit to answer. There was a lot of conversation about joe bidens character, empathy. What they tried to get across is that joe biden is going to be this empathetic, concerned leader that cares about everybody. That cares about folks across race, ethnicity, class, and of course, political party, in stark contrast to how others, particularly michelle obama, described the incumbent president , donald trump. Last night was a little light on actual policy. The most that you got was from bernie sanders, who talked about health care, and said joe doesnt really agree with some of the proposals i do, but i think we get closer to what we were planning if joe biden is in office. So very light on policy, beenugh i think, ive following him over the course of the campaign, it does look like there are going to be more progressives. But last night was a bit light on some of the policies. Tom so much of policy success is how you delegate within the process. How do you anticipate that widenharris that biden harris and their government will delegate if elected . Basil if you take last night as an example and Pay Attention to whats been happening throughout this pandemic, mayors and governors have had to assume a tremendous amount of responsibility for what they have been doing to address these issues without the federal government. I imagine that a Bidenharris Administration is going to have a better, closer relationship with governors and some mayors across the country then donald trump would. That is part of the message. It has been about cooperation and partnership, and that is due in part why you have people like governor andrew omo last night, the governor of michigan as well, talking about andrew cuomo last night, the governor of michigan as well, talking about that. So more cooperation, more funding support, less blaming and fingerpointing. Tom senator schumer now with a headline, talking about immigration. As will be in his speech tonight. You have lived what senator schumer is talking about. Harlemyou get immigrant and the immigrant harlems across this nation to actually shut up and vote . How do you get the turnout you need to win . Basil im a child of jamaican immigrants myself, so theres politics steeped in our household growing up. The truth is, every immigrant household understands this political moment. Theirnderstand that families have potentially been pulled apart. They understand and had come to that wethey understand are coming to this country for opportunities, to build this mrs. And companies. So the attack on them, they understand all too well what is about i think those who have become citizens like my parents are very eager to become part of the process. I dont think there is a family that has come to the country that wants to take art in building this nation that isnt really attuned to the urgency of this moment, so i applied senator schumer so i applaud senator schumer. I believe immigrant families are going to be mobilized in the selection. In this election. Anna good to speak to you today. If we look at the people in the middle of u. S. Society, the democrats are looking to convince them to come over to their camp and possibly stay in their camp. Which are the types of voters that have not yet been targeted, that the dnc and the democrats running up to november need to target to win over to the side . Basil i think there has been some concern in the Latino Community that not enough has been done to really engage those voters throughout this primary process. And i understand the concern about that. I also think the pandemic laid a huge role in that, and that we did really have a full primary season as we would normally have it. There are a lot of latino voters issues which pertain to the tenmunity that have not got full hearing. I think candidates are going to are going to have to look for the vote from suburban, older women, those votes that were in trump in 2016. You saw it in 2018 hopefully there is a replay in 2020. I think some of the republicans that spoke last night tried to address those very three moves. Le, thank you so much. Also want to talk about leadership in school. Futures up five, dow futures up 43. Tonight, david westin with our coverage of the Democratic National convention. It is a virtual convention. Saying hest out now, has real doubts about the modern wasntion, and said even impressed by the cadence of it as well area the cadence of it as well. Dollar with a further breakdown. You see it in dxy. Terling, 1. 3190 Jonathan Ferro is not going to be able to afford wait a minute, hes paid in sterling. Ferro is making out like a bandit. Sterling pushing 1. 32 right now. Ferro is going to be able to buy nation d bloomberg, coming up. Tom bloomberg surveillance. Good morning. Economic data with Michael Mckee. Markets are on the move. Report back from home depot and walmart. The dollar weaker. A new bout of weakness. Considers housing. Michael housing is big today. Overng starts up 22. 6 july. The number of Building Permits up 18. 4 . Low Interest Rates are making of a difference. That is no surprise to anybody. One of the interesting things we are watching is the number of singlefamily home starts. Singlefamily home starts up as well. All of this talk of how people want to move out of the city and get more room because they will be working from home. Much more demand from builders. Its like we are getting the kind of information from the report today. One other number. The new york fed does the empire survey. We talked about that earlier this week. They also do a services survey. This is a Service Economy in the united states. A big drop in the new York Fed Survey down to 17. 1. Businesses more pessimistic in august than in july. That fits the narrative the economy has started to stall again. Tom we welcome all of you. We will pause with Michael Mckee. What you people do not know is Michael Mckee and i met at a seminar at the National Association for business economics. I think nixon was president. We are at a seminar called mean reversion, totally dry statistics. I ask you this with great respect. Can we trust the Economic Statistics . I got the gloom of restaurants closed, bars closed. A great economist at moodys said it is a 14 unemployed america, that i got home depot up, walmart up, 97 and internet sales. These housing numbers that are a boom. They do not fit together, do they . Michael they do if youre looking at numbers like from home depot. People took their stimulus checks and because they were stuck at home decided to do remodeling and fixing up of their houses. There is the narrative that seems to be coming out of this. You can trust the housing data in terms of the story it is telling us. Interest rates, Mortgage Rates plunged to the lowest ever. More people want to buy houses so builders are responding. The question for walmart and home depot and others, now that the 600 extra unemployment payment has gone away, now that the 1200 payment has been spent, do we continue to see retail sales growth. We should get numbers from johnson redbook, the weekly Sales Numbers which gives us some direction this week. Last week they were down 3. 4 . Lets see if americans continue to spend. This is the backtoschool season. If they continue to spend or if your kid is not going back, do you buy her new close to where new clothes to wear. Anna, save me with the question. Anna i will save you from a question around womens clothing. Interesting you cite the Services Sector and the doldrums because if you not paying for a bill or a decorating youre doing it yourself, youre doing those Home Improvements we talked about with home depot. As you raise that question, lets go there about how long this lasts four. You got an initial boost in the summer, the checks in the mail people are grateful for, but if that is not sustained, what danger to the u. S. Economy if we do not see a sequel to the cares act . Michael different economists have different views. Has said he thinks we could lose. 5 of growth from that in this quarter. ,t could get worse from there because you have a cascading effect where people lose jobs and they do not spend, and the money that is not spent leads other people lose jobs. It is a potential downward spiral. That is why a lot of people have talked about the w as a symbol of what we might see in the economy, and there will be a lot of pressure to do something for congress to do something when we start seeing the highfrequency numbers suggesting we have a problem. This is just breaking. We will have a little bit of a time for it. Mr. Carney had a job, i guess he lost his job in england, went back to canada, and he will not serve as the new finance minister. Ctv, this according to our bloomberg headlines, Christian Friedland will be the new finance minister for canada. This is someone you and i know well. Tell us a little bit about Christian Friedland. Michael she started her career as a journalist. There is hope for you if you want to go to the government. She joined the labour party in canada and has worked her way up. Ministerntly foreign but made her mark as the trade minister. Negotiated the new nafta treaty on behalf of canada. A potential future prime minister, and if she takes on the finance portfolio is considered that much more experienced. Heritage,ukrainian different finance minister from the cut of the cloth you say. Michael mckee, thank you so much for the economic data. Our conversation stealing time from Shahab Jalinoos of Credit Suisse. Why is the dollars a week over the last five days . Weaky is the dollar so over the last five days . Shahab and the consolidation phase there is a longerterm weakening trend. We are within a month of the next fomc meeting, and markets believe there is a decent chance of more dovish innovations coming through the fomc. On top of everything else, you have a situation where the fiscal stimulus extension talks are not going well. Economist think of failure to tos a deal 50 billion 60 billion. That sets the u. S. Aside from many other countries that are chugging along in a relatively benign fashion at this point. Good morning. That adds to the response i got to mike mckee about what impact not following up on the care act would have on the u. S. Economy. Looking at what drives the dollar, it is the things you mentioned. It is also Risk Appetite and if there is more appetite for things not u. S. , nominated not u. S. Denominated, is that we are seeing, generally trading around that theme . It,ab that is an aspect of but the dollar being a Global Funding currency, then as long as Global Conditions are benign it tends to gravitate lower as a rule. Things accelerate when you have more active divergence as well. I would say the spat around the cares act creates the perception that is possible. It may still be the case to come up with a deal, but the odds are shakier than a country like , where it looks like you can have a smooth process when doing things like extending the jobs further by a year, which is what they are talking about without any stress. I think it does matter what is happening, and although the stock market in the u. S. Does painhow too much sign of , where the pain might be coming through is what we are seeing in the currency, which is consistent weakening. The fed and the fomc are still big players in this space. Ahead of the meeting, the market will start to wonder what is coming next in terms of dovish policy. , tom and talking of pain asked me what impact a 1. 31 pound has on businesses in the u. K. Lets talk about the euro. How worried with the ecb be about a 1. 19 handle on the eurodollar . Shahab i do not think they will be too worried. Firstly, european Inflation Expectations are still moving higher than marketbased numbers. But it isy low level, not as if they are imploding because the euro is rallying. Secondly, the headline level of , iteurodollar rates obviously catches the attention something, but it is at this level that is the problem for exporters. Not compared to the impact of broader global demand, which is a far bigger driver of what happens to euro area exports. Tom our perspective, we need see the dollar get to at least 1. 30 before we start to ponder whether it is too high. Tom too short of a visit. I am sorry, we had that news of the canadian finance minister that took precious seconds away. Shahab jalinoos of Credit Suisse. We will get him back. Great to see the synthesis of what he is doing with their wonderful james sweeney, hugely optimistic guy and i was shocked at his caution in our last visit as well. Anna, i do not buy it for a minute. To move and all of a sudden politicians begin to talk. Maybe i do not understand the United Kingdom, but i wonder , whothe 1. 20 or 1. 22 euro starts talking first in europe . Anna we know there will be a lot of talk. That is all we can say about these brexit negotiations or trade deal negotiations. Toward the end of the year there will be a lot of talk, but they are still falling out about the things there were falling about a year ago. Theyre still the role of the ecj, the Northern Ireland border, and fish. Tom it is fish. This is one of the things i do not get. We can do this with anna, pharaoh Jonathan Ferro would never do this, we can do this with anna. The fish thing is the determinant, isnt it . Anna it plays well for various parts of the electorate. It punches above its weight in terms of generating headlines for something that is less than 1 of the economy. Tom no question. Why did i think i would wake up and talking to anna edwards about fishing rights in the north sea in the English Channel . Doubt futures up 49. Coming up on Bloomberg Radio, mr. Gober, franklin templeton, head of equities. David westin with our convention coverage. Will it be as successful as all thought last night was . Good morning. This is bloomberg. Michelle obama described President Trump as unfit for office on the Opening Night of the democratic convention. The former first lady blasted him for missed handling the pandemic. More than 150 thousand people have died and our economy is in thatles because of a virus this president downplayed for too long. Trump isbama said clearly in over his head. Democrats will propose an extra 25 billion in funding for the beleaguered postal service. Bloomberg learned it will be part of legislation that will prohibit cutbacks in services before the election. A vote is set for saturday. Democrats want the post office strengthened before election ballots are mailed. In california, 10 Million People avoided a blackout when temperatures fell. They may not be so lucky today. It is supposed to hit 108 degrees and parts of the state. That could force rolling blackouts designed to save the power grid. It is the first time california has resorted to the blackout since 2001. In hong kong, carrie lam said she is having trouble using her credit card after u. S. Sanctions were imposed, the Trump Administration sanctioned chinese officials and their allies in the city in response to sweeping security measures. Lam called the measures against are totally unjustified. Consumer splurged on doityourself projects in the second quarter. Home depot reported sales growth more than twice the breast great analysts had been expected. Thestore sales twice rate analysts had been expecting. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. I amro good group to i am ritika gupta. This is bloomberg. We are in a period of deglobalization. We will not get the disinflationary impulse. There is no point where i would say we should buy treasuries. Tom barry knapp has been around the block a number of times with ironside macro economics. He knows if you are not get the reward. Another barry knows that as well. His name is Barry Ritholtz. Im jealous he gets to do masters in business, these long conversations with all sorts of interesting people and he manages real moneys where he enjoys occasionally losing money as well. We are thrilled Barry Ritholtz could join anna edwards and myself. Dow up six, del potro futures up 41. Barry, i want you to explain the street fixation which is always there, in this case on apple, on amazon, and how you can get the same return from something as a two by four. Home depot up 28 per year in the last two years, and kaplan ghosn does not get any of the sex appeal of tim cook, does he . Barry hindsight bias. Now everyone knows of pandemic will cause a lot of people to flee to the suburbs. When we look at technology, there are game changers. The world is different because we walk around with a highpowered computer in our pocket. We have connectivity wherever we go. Look at how amazon has change the nature of retail, how microsoft is changing enterprise. We are fixated on the companies that have a giant impact on our lives, not surprisingly, those companies are rewarded with lots of sales and profits, and a big exposure within the bake indexes. Is home depot a Technology Company . Barry if you want to make the claim, you could say they are a Logistics Company with an online presence. If you look at walmart or home depot or amazon, there is a lot of Technology Used in the logistical process, but they are not in the business of selling technology. We need to separate the companiess eltek and the companies that the companies that sell tech and the companies that use tech. Amazon does both. Apple does a lot of both. Home depot sells basic Building Supplies but they are a big user of tech, and that is a reason why they are as profitable as they are. Anna barry, good to speak to you. That makes me think of accardo in the u. S. , which is a grocery retailer and it has always said is that a tech company because it sells its tack and services to other grocery retailers. Aboute you not concerned the dominance, the percentage of market cap tech takes up in the s p right now . Why is this normal . Barry if you look at the history and go back to 1980, the concentration of the 10 Largest Companies in the index has bounced back and forth between 17. 5 and 25. 5 . We saw that despite following we thought we saw that spike following three months of lockdown when the rest of the index fell out of bed. You can take the 10 Biggest Companies and equal weight them in a portfolio, they are up nearly 40 for the year. Do the same thing for the remaining 490 companies, they are down 8 for the year. It is not a surprise, given what is actually happening with the lockdown and how many industries, from retail to restaurants to travel to hotels that are doing so poorly, it is not a surprise we see a heavier concentration in the Global Companies that are thriving when people are forced to work like this, to work from an office in their house as opposed to commuting to the city and going to their jobs. Anna what does history tell us about the way this unwinds . When the lockdown is a long distant memory and i do not have to spend my time sitting in front of this fireplace anymore at home, what we know about how tech will respond . Will tech collapse back into the pack, or will the pack catch up with tech . Barry i think it is more of the latter. What happens when we come out of a recession is the companies that have been doing poorly for a variety of reasons, they lack access to capital, their customers lack access to credit, they are not selling it to the international markets, all of those companies, when the economy recovers and we come out of this pandemic induced lockdown, i imagine they will catch up somewhat to attack. Much debt somewhat to they will catch up somewhat to tech. How much does it take to bring the big ten down under 25 . It does not take much for the rest of the index normalized, and suddenly tech is back to its normal range. Tom what does a weak dollar mean for our multinationals . Barry it depends if there exporters or if they have local companies or local branches where the currency is almost irrelevant, it is almost neutral. What the weak dollar means is exporters from the u. S. , it is a little bit of a tail wind, but think about what it does for commodities, think about what it does for the price of things like timber and gold and copper. When the measuring stick get smaller, will there prices go up . Theoretically, we could see increased input prices that might cause the modest inflation down the road. ,m not in the full inflation certainly not the full hyperinflation. I would not be surprised to see inflation get over the very low level we have seen, maybe even 3. 5 for a couple of quarters. 4 temporarily . But it is a temporary phenomenon. Tom while. That is notow. Priced in. Barry ritholtz. Anna, i thought we would get to a 1. 321 sterling. Weaker dollar, stronger sterling. Anna edwards killing it in her portfolio. Anna [laughter] if i could travel, maybe i would. It would go further. The pound in my pocket. I cannot go anywhere. The euro is interesting. The weakness in the dollar is part of the story. The euro up. 6 , 1. 1937. We heard from Credit Suisse this will not worry the ecb. Tom it is amazing to see. A weak dollar over the last hour. We have broken out to new weakness. Bonds pretty quiet. 10year flat. In two basis points. The equity markets have done nothing. I am not sure what that means for the opening. Futures up six. Nasdaq does pretty well. Dow futures up 54 points. Neare vix, 21. 38, nowhere breaking through to a 20 level. Lots of good conversations through the day and will be looking at the politics for someone who serve the political space. Look for that in the 12 00 hour. Somehow, politics will come up. We thank all of you for listing on Bloomberg Radio and watching on Bloomberg Television to our simulcast. This is bloomberg. Taylor from new york city for our viewers worldwide, i am taylor riggs in for Jonathan Ferro. We begin with the big issue. From equities to treasuries to gold, nearly every financial asset rising in unison. Investors weighing in on the everything rally. Equities are rallying. The breadth of this rally starting to go the on the big tech names. Gold has been rallying. Oil has had a huge comeback. This is a liquidity driven bull market. As long as theres confidence in the support of central banks. This is all about the perception of policies. These market technicals can take us quite a long way. Until you get a big shock. There is a risk of the rally stalling. Consumer sentiment remains week. Any hiccups with fiscal policy wrote support with fiscal policy support