Discussion this evening. Francine we are not brexit free, i have just been sparing you. We have actually been increasing the numbers of icu beds because people need them more. And brexit negotiations are ongoing. There is still the selfimposed deadline of october 15. ,om and i want to make clear the case dynamics in europe are extraordinary for the slopes of those curves are distressing. Its been an extraordinary thursday. Thank you to our team for an incredible news flow. It seems like we are doing the same thing today, we are waiting for washington to wake up and drive forward. Heres riddick group to with the first word news. With first word news. The Global Food Program was honored with the Nobel Peace Prize. They especially operate in conflict zones. To 100 millionse people in 88 countries last year. The white house is shifting its position in stimulus package, again. Steven mnuchin and told nancy pelosi that they want to in agreement on a largescale relief bill. Earlier this week the president paused negotiations on, branch of legislation. Meanwhile Federal Reserve officials are keeping up the pressure on washington to renew fiscal support for the economy. Robert kaplan tells bloomberg he sees a Slower Economy without more stimulus. Favorsc rosengren increasing the assets but thats not as good as another relief package. Louisiana is bracing for hurricane delta. The storm has picked up strength , now category three with wind up to 120 miles per hour. It is expected to slam into an area louisiana still recovering hurricane laura. Forcing Energy Countries companies to shut down Oil Production in the gulf of mexico. Global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. I am ritika bloomberg. Is you thoseet me give levels, they are very important. The vix in from 29 into 26. 01, i mentioned the yuan, this is a big deal. We are considering further remember the we are further considering further strength. Atncine and i am looking european stocks. They are actually gaining as a lot of European Companies are boosting guidance and the white house has signaled openness to largescale stimulus. If you look at the stocks, gaining from 0. 3 . The other thing i am looking at are these european bonds. Heree seeing some cases and in germany. Tom we are beginning our political coverage, we tried to do this to get different experienced voices. We are so fortunate that Wendy Benjamin is with us. She is with the Associated Press and the battle of the first days of the Trump Administration with her leadership with the ap in washington and has war wounds from 2016. Is this a wendy, redux of 2016 . Wendy it could be. Nobody wants to say that President Donald Trump is out, thats the lesson we have learned. When the polls show his opponents are up, dont count him out. Joe biden hasink some advantages that hillary. Linton did not have and all of the writing on the that if the votes were all counted today, joe biden might win. Florida . Important is your work with ap and now bloomberg, you are steeped in the statebystate politics. It overover and emphasized . Do the other states matter more . Wendy no, florida is not overemphasized. Its the ultimate battleground state. There is no doubt that biden is going to carry california and new york, huge Electoral College prizes. More votes than other states because of their population. Donald trump will probably win texas, thats the other big prize. Then theres florida. One day biden is up 11 points, the next day a poll of the same people chose donald trump up two points. Its impossible to tell what will happen in florida which could be the crux of the election. When we talk about florida, will we see more campaigning . Do we have any insight as to why it fluctuates so much . Joe biden was in florida earlier this week, and donald trump has his home there, at maralago. He seems to be doing more rallies. I think mayp voter not be as much of a factor. Anald trump is no longer unknown that one could take a chance on. And you might be shy to tell voters. If you support donald trump, you are out there and you are happy to support donald trump. I think there are a lot of former trump voters that no longer support him. Tom david westin had numerous conversations with speaker pelosi, but maybe shes not the one to watch. Who is Wendy Benjamin send theaminson watching in stimulus discussion . Who matters . Wendy nancy pelosi is definitely the one to watch. And unfortunately not unfortunately, and the way this administration works, donald trump is the one to watch. E has his hands on the lever if he says theyre off, theyre off. If he says thereon, thereon if he says they are on. They are on. The last few hours, the part the president indicating a lift towards the pelosi price tag. Providingamin send political coverage. This isnce of power, bloomberg. Good morning. Everyone morning surveillance. Good morning everyone, this is bloomberg surveillance. We heard from Wendy Benjaminson for an update just a moment ago. And its important to speak to mathew of Deutsche Bank. They have been brilliant on the presumed slow down. Most twowo distressing statistics. We go down 3. 7 per year and then up 3. 7 per year. Which i think for two years we are dead flat. Is that really what you see . Exactly. Theyre talking about the gdp trajectory for this year and next. Up 3. 7 andis year, only getting back to previrus and 2022. 2021 there are some vaccine hopes there. N their and on modest stimulus hopes. Tom and whats brilliant is the dispersion of the effect of a quarters flat, down and then up. And the distribution on the American Public is so different. Does that make it urgent to do stimulus because the havenots will not participate in a flat economy . Crisis, the have a covid shock, which had very targeted impacts on the u. S. Economy. In particular sectors, restaurants, retail, leisure and hospitality. Wes very different from what saw with the Global Financial crisis. Fiscal stimulus, but we have not seen that fiscal stimulus forthcoming with the talks breaking down despite what we have heard overnight from the white house. What is the size of stimulus that would make a meaningful impact on the u. S. Economy . Matthew there are a few things that need to be done. Theneed to reup unemployment insurance, at least part of it. So far everybody has been surprised at how resilient Consumer Spending has been. But when we had the original 600, five out of every six on employees was still receiving their income. And then 50 was still receiving their income. Going down to zero is meaningful. You also need targeted support for airlines, ppp loans for Small Businesses. Many that will need to take an additional loan if we dont see social distancing going away. Those adult to significant amounts. That have been talked about makes sense. But theres no way you are Getting Center republicans on board. Francine where do you worry about the most scarring in the economy . Atthew its interesting many of the metrics that we look at from the gsp and elsewhere are not showing the types of effects that we had seen. It had been noted that income expectations in the university of Michigan Survey have plunged and remained low for years. They did not plunge in response to this shock, but rebounded quickly. And we have to survey what is the possibility of being unemployed. It actually shot up and rebounded back down quickly. And the wealth effect, huge with the Global Financial crisis remained low for a protracted. But we dont have that here. Tom i want to get out front of Deutsche Bank clients. What is the topic you are studying the report on in your monday notes for Deutsche Bank . Focused onerybody is fiscal stimulus. The question that we get today, the market is very neutral. We dont think that this is , but also, yes, while it is true that we will get a fiscal package if biden wins and democrats win the senate, the negative outcome is the second wins an you biden get a republican senate. Thats the real risk. That afternoon like we dont get a big fiscal stimulus and ensuring that all of these macro trades are being based on. To talk aboutots and i am interested in Business Confidence after the transaction that we saw yesterday. Ibm did not get enough play. Its historic to see the breakup 109yearold International Business machines. Arian isen, mohamed al writing for bloomberg opinion. On these historic times. This is bloomberg. We want to help the airline industry. We have legislation in the cares will continueope for another six months or so. That expires the end of september. , butuld do this separately we cannot do it unless theres a big bill. It needs to be a part of the big bill or it could be separate from a timing standpoint. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi talking to david westin. And this is as markets are focusing on the possible stimulus package from the u. S. We also have a headline from spain, the spanish Prime Minister saying he will declare a state of emergency in madrid. This is one of the local tv stations carrying this. And this is significant, possibly one of the only ways that spain can put restrictions in place. We broke the headline yesterday that a judge ruled that the travel restrictions in and out tocities might be necessary fight the spread of coronavirus but under the current framework they were violating fundamental rights. Dealing with to get around it was for the spanish Prime Minister to evoke a state of emergency and then he can do what he wants in terms of lockdown. A really important story. I want to stop the program now to go into this. And it hugely political really shows the polarity of the socialist leadership versus the conservative leadership of madrid, do i have that right . Francine yes. And this goes to what we thought was a pretty surprising court case yesterday with that judge going against the government, saying they cannot really impose a partial locked in the spanish capital and suburbs. Regional officials had appealed the application of these stricter measures and the judge said you are right, they cannot go into tougher measures unless its an emergency declaration. Will be interesting and we will follow this story through friday afternoon. Its really across all of europe with france and spain leading the way with difficult pandemic stories. Francine and we were talking to matthew liz eddie to matthew about the fiscal stimulus in the u. S. He mentioned the fed. But overall matthew, how chiefult is it for the economist, u. S. Or world, to look at what the economy we will have an months given these restrictions that pop up in countries where they had a good handle. Its happened in germany and it could happen in a number of u. S. States as well. Matthew you are absolutely right. There was a theme emerging a few months ago where european was outperforming economically in the second half of the year, based on the view that europe had handled the virus better and it was raging in the u. S. We are seeing some difficulties containing the virus in many places across different approaches. Certainly in the u. S. We have seen the highest growth rate since may. And if you look at the midwest, a record growth rate. It is still with us, still hampering economic activity. Particularly for the services sector. On the flipside, we are getting generally better news on the belief in theand vaccine at least with it being distributed by next year which should help. But this is one of the things that will continue to hamper the economy. We saw huge transactions with history made, Corporate Officers are working strategically. Whats the underlying confidence of the Business Community, not to beleaguered Small Business community but the more prosperous continuing forward Business Community now . If we get a Deutsche Bank flatness for eight quarters, do they maintain a Business Confidence to do transactions . Its been a very unique recession and recovery in the sense that capex, equipment spending is actually fully normalized. We has really remained are spending this on the services sector, which is your typical thing which is very resilient. I think theres a divergence between the Small Businesses and medium and larger businesses purely driven by that. And larger businesses are looking at asia and china and other economies that are rebounding better and global trade which is rebounding better. This is a greater sense of optimism. Larger businesses also have more ilient plans to resolve respond to shocks and plan for the future. So there is a dichotomy where you have Small Businesses underperforming. Watching thank you. We are watching. Thank you. I cannot emphasize the shock of their paragraph of 3. 5 then positive 3. 5 stretching over two years. Thats an important statistic. Futures are up 15, dow futures at 126. In the 3 00 hour, scott joins. This is bloomberg. Ritika the Nobel Peace Prize has been awarded to the Global Food Program. The United Nations agency was honored for its efforts to combat hunger and Food Insecurity around the globe. The onagain offagain talks for largescale stimulus are back on again. Nancy pelosin told that President Trump now wants a comprehensive relief package. Earlier this week the president ended talks and said this would not resume until after the election. President trump says he feels good and is hoping to hold a Campaign Rally in florida on saturday. The white house doctor has given the goahead for Public Engagement starting this weekend. It was a week ago today that the president was hospitalized with coronavirus. And the Justice Department is suing yale university, claiming that its illegally discriminating against white and Asian American africans, claiming they flame they favor black and hispanic applicants. Responded that it would not abandon its race conscious process. Global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. I amro to cooped up i am ritika gupta. This is bloomberg. Tom any number of transactions yesterday, 7 billion, no big deal, but its a heritage of boston mutual fund, investing going back to 1925, eaton vance, a roll of the many different mutual fund companies, and they finally jettisoned yesterday. To dougke a listen gorman. This has been a 10 year strategy to take an extraordinary Investment Bank and trading business, clean that up in terms of the risk management, take away the prop trading, use that capital more effectively, its doing unbelievably well. Up thegive it to build Wealth Management business. And then e trade gave us a digital platform and now we are doing this on the Asset Management tried management side. And now excitingly we are doing this with eaton vance. We think for 2030 you will find a stable and faster growing feebased institution, wellcapitalized, strong liquidity. The strategy,ain are you trying to be all things to everybody now that you have added this large brokerage and asset manager . James not at all. We have 70 deals since i have been co. Oilold oil storage and business. Mortgage servicing businesses, european private banks, a u. K. , and spain. We have been reshaping the portfolio. This is about managing capital for individual goals and institutions around the world. Being in the asset and Wealth Management space, this is all consistent. His is part of that process so frankly i think we are a more focused company. This has been an expensive deal. But at the end of the day, its what the deal will deliver in the future. It comes down to profit and margin. How do you explain the economics to them in the long term. James i have met a lot of people who want to purchase Great Companies cheaply and they end up not buying anything. Hopefully you dont buy a lot of underperforming companies with a lot of money. Eaton vance has been around for 90 years. Talent, worldclass, a perfectly complementary business. Very little dislocation. Parametrics,ome there are some very traditional Asset Management. This was a nobrainer. But thatsl dollar, what you have to do if you want to purchase highquality businesses. They came to us. They wanted to be part of the Morgan Stanley business. Our cultures aligned. It used up about 100 basis with our core regulatory capital ratio. But it created about 100 basis points this year. So we are back to neutral. This will be terrific over the long run. Im not worried about financials. Manager makessset this above 1. 2 trillion at this point. It is still a fraction of blackrock and vanguard and jp morgan. How do you compete . James they are completely different businesses. Blackrock are largely index and Exchange Rated businesses. We are not trying to be the biggest. You dont do strategy through envy. Thats how you make mistakes. You do strategy based on whats works based on what works. To have an Asset Management company from where we were 10 years ago, its unbelievable. I dont care that there are others who are bigger. Thats not the point. The point is are we providing clients with the opportunity they need . Asset management business and eaton vance it has happened. Tom and as mentioned, he acquires calvert and i should calvertt 40 years ago, singlehandedly invented responsible investing. It was absolutely original at the time. Chanel is joining us. I have two key questions. One is that clearly he overpaid. Who is he worried would take eaton vance if he did not . I would not call it defensive, only because you are seeing Morgan Stanley make the biggest deals on wall street. He overpaid but the Asset Management business has been limping along in terms of assets for a very long time. Its been hovering below 600 billion. This will catapult him about 1 trillion, bringing him at scale and giving him the third leg of the business that he has wanted for a long time. Mckinsey, a beast of and he worked with merrill lynch, developing online, developing a new modern retail presence for merrill lynch. All that experience into where Morgan Stanley is heading. You do sonali you had this consultant looking at a strategic vision. Morgan stanley has spent time shrinking and rightsizing out of the top banks. They were the smallest. You have them, james gorman making his last significant marks on the business. Tom come on . What are you doing . Are you announcing on air that hes retiring . Sonali he said so. Tom why would this be his last effort . , eatonng in e trade vance, how do you meld those two and what the next step, dont tell me its retirement. Sonali he did say he was stepping down in the next few years. Tom mr. Diamond has been stepping down for a decade. What is mr. Gormans next depth . Sonali thats why i asked if you want to be everything to everyone and he says he was not trying to be the biggest, but he wants the highest return. So lets see if he can get jp morgan like returns at a smaller scale. Thats his objective. In the Asset Management business, the fee pressure is something most people are worried about. You mentioned calvert. Fixed income is a huge business here. And a lot of people on wall street are more excited about the prospect of being associated with this business. With e trade you have another strategy and a different client base. The everyday person. When he purchased e trade he said he saw a future when it came to digital banking. You have Morgan Stanley taking what they do, expanding their wings a little further, but not so far that they would take on Credit Suisse on a global scale, which you would think would maybe be their next natural move. He is staying in the u. S. , getting a broader base of people, and trying to get as much profitability from that specific base that he can. How does he go after millennials . If e trade is enough to make sure that he is strong . There is e trade but theres also what he purchased last year. And this has gotten him to work with a lot of highflying startups with the Employee Base across the startups. So you starting to get to employees of companies that are little younger. Its an Employee Base that can grow into wealth. Thats the plan. But as you know, theres a lot of competition in that market, including some upstart switches like robinhood, and e trade is a much older business. We are seeing those new Companies Get a lot of share. Will this is for other wall street banks to look for acquisitions . Francine Sonali Sonali its an interesting time to see acquisitions because the Federal Reserve is keeping such a tight i on these banks. Can say thatman this makes it safer and less reliant on those high octane trading businesses. But those other banks, if they are looking for acquisitions and if goldman wants to purchase a regional, will it be able to . Thank you. Thats a wonderful interview. We have headlines out, this is the continuation of the twoday derby by the Trump Administration through fox. This is the secretary of commerce, wilbur ross, over the years he has been doing roll ups in steel industry, speaking of aluminum dumping. This is a tariff based statement come out and we heard one from President Trump. He talked about tariffs in his second term with china. This is on the aluminum industry. Ross and the Trump Administration will clampdown. Coming up, pandemic updates and the political uproar in madrid over the pandemic. This is bloomberg. The futures are up 15. Ritika this is bloomberg surveillance. Coming later, jp morgan head of the fundamental assets. This is bloomberg. Tom good morning, bloomberg surveillance, tom keene and francine lacqua. Andrew is with us from john hopkins university. One of the great virologist in pandemic. And we are considering the World Food Program with the United Nations. This is an extraordinary vehicle that has been profoundly inortant over 50 years stopping starvation. Andrew, i never asked this question in the pandemic, but it speaks to india and poorer countries. Nutritiontion fold into the recovery of a virusinfected patient. We are fat and happy in america has a general statement, fold in the importance of nutrition within the pandemic. Andrew good health is one of the factors that really drives the differences that we have seen in terms of disease for disease severity and prevalence. A lot more doctors play into it, if we are going to focus on nutrition, being fat in america is not a good thing when it comes to covid19 because of the more severe diseases that are there. The converse is true. Diets, those poor can make one more susceptible to infectious diseases. Sometimes in terms of being infected bull and sometimes in terms of disease severity. This is one of the driving factors, these socioeconomic factors are really important when you look at diseases from a regional or National Perspective because they could be driving those differences in terms of how a disease presents in one country versus another. Francine good morning from london, what can you tell us about the president s recovery . Andrew the president had a fantastic group of doctors around him. He was given a course of therapy which is a little untested. The regeneron antibody and remdesivir given early are both things on paper are what you should be doing, they target the virus and should be given earlier in an infection. His use of dexamethasone later was a little interesting. Its usually reserved for more severe cases of disease. We usually want to give that when the virus has already been somewhat controlled in its immune response driving the disease present. Out. Rked the president recovered. But the important things to know is that this is what we call an n 1 case. We need trials that showed that similar courses of treatment work. Thats why we have Clinical Trials for vaccines and treatments. Francine the president wants to get back to work and go back to campaigning. One would presume that means no longer infectious. Is it a shorter amount of time that we thought for somebody being infectious . Andrew usually its 10 to 14 days after symptom onset that one feels like he will not be infectious anymore. Thats a period of time that hes getting to now. He will also have a lot of other tests to measure his virus load, so we look at how much virus is in his system and using that as a secondary confirmation that s no longer in action infectious. Hes approaching that phase where he should be able to resume his duties. But i think a bigger issue that you see from the debate, from the Supreme Court nominee announcement is that there has to be a better sense of responsibility, to be honest, in terms of making sure that the Public Health and the social action interventions are in place to limit the spread of the virus in the white house and the staff. You cannot rely on testing to make you safe. You have to have the testing, social distancing, mask wearing, all of those things in place. That has to be demonstrated by the white house staff that that is being done in an appropriate manner to prevent widespread movement of this virus. And if we look at the white house, are there more likelyin the u. S. That do in practice the protocols and social distancing and the mask wearing because they see what has happened in the white house, or because the president is now ok, will people ignore the advice scientists give . Andrew i want to think its the former. This was an example of how relying on one thing, testing, leaves you vulnerable. It allows the virus to spread. We are fortunate that most of the cases involved in the white house were mild to moderate and that we did not have any severe cases of disease. Thats not the case in many scenarios. The white house staff tends to be younger in terms of their average age. If this happened in a place where there was a significantly older population we could have had some severe cases coming out of this. The important thing is to stop transmission cycles, be proactive, make sure you are limiting the types of situations the virus can spread in because this will reduce the burden in our country in general. And thats the goal. Talk to me about the fda guidelines and whether this will go a long way in making sure that this will be safe for the vaccine say for people to have. Andrew lets start by saying has been accine tremendous endeavor. We have gotten so far in terms of bringing candidate in vaccines that looks good in early studies to the cusp of being able to being used. But we are not over the finish line. We need to have the large scale Clinical Trials done to make sure that we have safety and and wey of the vaccines know going in with those two factors are going to be. Its also a matter of public trust. Scientifically this vaccine has been developed quickly and that might confer some sense to the population that things have been done too quickly. Maybe corners have been cut. This is not a that the scientific, clinical and pharmaceutical community can really stand up and make the case that they have developed a safe and efficacious vaccine. But we will need time for that. The safety and efficacy data takes time before you can accumulate a number of cases to show that the vaccine works. This is a great thing. But this will not slow down the distribution of the vaccine by tremendous amount. Of it will make us more sure what the vaccine is, what its goodits are, and thats for the public trust. Francine thank you so much. Be sure to check out bloomberg for the latest information. Coming up on balance of power, rick snyder after an interesting new cycle on michigan. This is bloomberg. Ritika this is your business flash. The london stock in change group has agreed to sell two euronext and italian lenders. The prices more than 5. 1 billion. The extent the exchange is looking for e. U. Approval for approval on purchasing another company. They will have a quarter of all equity trading in europe. There could be a 30 billion takeover in the chipmaking industry. Inanced micro devices is talks to purchase the company which could come together as early as next week. The combination could break the fornglehold on the Market Data Center computer components. Loreal is closing doors as part of its restructuring on u. S. Luxury operations. 400 jobs will be cut. The french Cosmetics Firm plans to shift to ecommerce. People have been spending less on pricey perfumes and makeup since the pandemic. Teslas new factory will not just be building an electric truck. The company also wants to build factories batteries on the site. There will be a Vehicle Assembly factory, the flagship factory is in california. And your business flash. Francine thank you. This is a picture for what the markets are looking at. We will see what happens when washington wakes up on stimulus. And the other is from European Companies. Coming up, we have more bloomberg surveillance, simulcast on radio and tv. So youre a Small Business, or a big one. You were thriving, but then. Oh. Ah. Okay. Plan, pivot. How do you bounce back . You dont, you bounce forward, with serious and reliable internet. Powered by the largest gig Speed Network in america. But is it secure . Sure its secure. And even if the power goes down, your connection doesnt. So how do i do this . You dont do this. We do this, together. Bounce forward, with comcast business. We are still in the greatest economic shock in over 50 years. I dont think the economy is going to be that strong next year, regardless of who wins the nexen who wins the election. The numbers this year dont really tell us as much as we need to know about the future. The environment of high returns and low volatility of the last 10 years is really behind us. The fed has been flattening the curve when history says we want a steeper curve. One thing i think almost everyone missed is that an economy adapts. This is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. Jonathan for our audience worldwide, good morning. This is bloomberg surveillance , live on bloomberg tv and radio. Alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, im jonathan ferro. 11, upfutures positive 0. 3 . Once again, another day of fiscal headline were let. Tom no question about it